Lock Him Up? A New Poll Has Some Bad News for Trump
By: POLITICO
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Law and Order
Lock Him Up? A New Poll Has Some Bad News for Trump
A new POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll punctures some prevailing political narratives about the Trump indictments.
Even as Donald Trump remains the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination, the cascading indictments are likely to take a toll on his general election prospects, a new poll finds. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
To hear Donald Trump tell it, the fact that he keeps getting indicted by prosecutors is a boon to his reelection effort. "Any time they file an indictment, we go way up in the polls," he said at a dinner shortly after he was charged by the Justice Department with attempting to overturn the 2020 election.
This counterintuitive claim is questionable on its face — if not demonstrably false upon close examination — but it is one among many dubious arguments that Trump and his allies have advanced in recent months as he has been confronted with four different prosecutions brought by the Justice Department, the Manhattan District Attorney's Office and, most recently, the Fulton County District Attorney's Office in Georgia.
A new POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll provides some bad news for Trump: Even as he remains the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination, the cascading indictments are likely to take a toll on his general election prospects.
The survey results suggest Americans are taking the cases seriously — particularly the Justice Department's 2020 election case — and that most people are skeptical of Trump's claim to be the victim of a legally baseless witch hunt or an elaborate, multi-jurisdictional effort to "weaponize" law enforcement authorities against him.
Furthermore, public sentiment in certain areas — including how quickly to hold a trial and whether to incarcerate Trump if he's convicted — is moving against the former president when compared to a previous POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll conducted in June. This latest poll was conducted from Aug. 18 to Aug. 21, roughly two-and-a-half weeks after Trump's second federal indictment and several days after Trump was criminally charged in Fulton County. The poll had a sample of 1,032 adults, age 18 or older, who were interviewed online; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for all respondents.
Here are some of the most notable findings from our latest survey.
1. Most Americans believe Trump should stand trial before the 2024 election
On Monday, Trump's lawyers will face off against federal prosecutors before U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan over when to schedule his trial in the Justice Department's 2020 election case — a high-stakes dispute that could have dramatic implications for the 2024 election. Federal prosecutors have proposed that the trial begin on Jan. 2, 2024, while Trump's lawyers have countered that the trial should take place in April 2026. If Trump gets his way, that would, perhaps not coincidentally, leave him plenty of time to complete his reelection bid and, if successful, shut the case down after retaking the White House.
Americans are far closer to the Justice Department's position than to Trump's. Fifty-nine percent of respondents in the poll said that the federal trial in Trump's 2020 election subversion case should take place before the 2024 Republican primaries begin early next year. A slightly higher number — 61 percent of all respondents — said that the trial should take place before the general election next November.
There was a predictable partisan split among Democrats and Republicans, with nearly 90 percent of Democratic respondents seeking an early trial date androughly a third of Republican respondents agreeing.
It was the reaction of independents, however, that may prove most ominous for Trump. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of independents said that Trump should stand trial before next November — a figure that suggests particular interest in and attentiveness to a case that effectively alleges that Trump tried to steal the last election. By way of a rough comparison, when we asked a similar question in June following Trump's indictment by the Justice Department in Florida concerning his retention of classified documents, fewer than half of independent respondents (48 percent) said that the trial in that case should take place before next November.
2. About half of the country believes Trump is guilty in the pending prosecutions
The claims on the part of Trump and his supporters that he is the victim of a "witch hunt" also seem to be having little effect on the views of Americans across the entire population. About half of the country — including overwhelming majorities of Democrats and roughly half of independents — believe that Trump is guilty of the series of charges.
Among the four pending cases, the Manhattan District Attorney's prosecution produced slightly less robust figures, with a total of just 48 percent of respondents reporting that they believe Trump is guilty in that case, which concerns alleged hush money payments to the adult film star Stormy Daniels.
Befitting our polarized country,bare majorities said that they believe Trump is guilty in the other cases — 51 percent in the pending Justice Department and Fulton County prosecutions concerning the 2020 election, and 52 percent in the Justice Department's classified documents case.
3. A conviction in DOJ's 2020 election case would hurt Trump in the general election
Our latest poll also makes clear that it would be unhelpful for Trump's presidential bid if he is federally convicted of a criminal scheme to steal the last election at the same time that he is asking the American people to send him back to the White House.
A plurality of respondents (44 percent) said that a conviction in the case would have no impact on their likelihood of supporting Trump, but the numbers tipped decisively against Trump among those who said that the result would inform their vote. Nearly one-third of respondents (32 percent) said that a conviction in the case would make them less likely to support Trump, including about one-third of independents (34 percent).
Only 13 percent of respondents said that a conviction would make them more likely to support Trump, and that figure was comprised mostly of Republicans.
4. There is considerable room for the numbers to get worse for Trump
Despite the seeming tsunami of news coverage of Trump's legal issues, a sizable portion of the public is still learning about the alleged crimes of the former president.
Most respondents said that they understand the charges in the pending cases either very well or somewhat well, with the highest numbers — more than 60 percent — saying so about the federal prosecutions. But somewhere between roughly one-quarter and one-third of respondents said that they do not understand the charges in the cases well.
That could change as the cases proceed through litigation — and, in particular, if one or more cases goes to trial before next November.
It is reasonable to assume that the media coverage and the facts revealed at any trials would, on balance, be unhelpful to Trump as a political matter, even if he manages to avoid convictions. Criminal defendants generally do not come out looking better at the end of highly publicized trials, even if they get off at the end of the day.
If there is a strong defense to the charges as a factual matter, Trump and his lawyers have yet to provide it. After the latest indictment in Fulton County, for instance, Trump publicly said that he would hold a press conference and release a report that would prove his innocence.
Curious Americans were ultimately left hanging. Two days after his announcement, Trump called off the presser.
5. Half of the country believes Trump should go to prison if convicted in DOJ's Jan. 6 case
We also asked respondents what the punishment should be, if anything, if Trump is convicted in the Justice Department's 2020 election case. Fifty percent of respondents said that he should go to prison, including a large majority of Democrats (87 percent) and a slight majority of independents (51 percent).
Another large number of respondents were open to alternative sanctions: 16 percent of respondents said that Trump should get probation, but no imprisonment, if convicted, and 12 percent of respondents said that he should simply get a financial penalty. Only 18 percent (largely comprised of Republicans) said that there should be no penalty even upon a conviction.
The results suggest that Americans may view Trump's conduct surrounding the Jan. 6 riot and his effort to overturn the election as more serious than those in the criminal cases that were filed against Trump earlier this year. When we asked respondents comparable questions in June, only 43 percent of respondents said that Trump should go to prison if convicted in the Justice Department's classified documents case, while 40 percent said that Trump should go to prison if convicted in the Manhattan District Attorney's case regarding the payments to Stormy Daniels.
6. Trump and the GOP's 'weaponization' defense appears to be having limited traction
For months, Trump and his Republican allies have claimed that the Justice Department has been "weaponized" against him by President Joe Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland. We asked a series of questions in order to try to get some understanding of what Americans make of this claim. The results were decidedly mixed for team Trump.
Fifty-nine percent of respondents — including nearly two-thirds of independents — said that the Justice Department's decision to indict Trump in the 2020 election case was based on a fair evaluation of the evidence and the law. At the same time, however, 44 percent of respondents — including 20 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of independents — said that the decision was based on trying to gain a political advantage for Biden.
In fact, more people believe Trump is guilty of weaponizing the legal system than Biden. Fifty-three percent of respondents — including 56 percent of independents — said that the Trump administration actively used the Justice Department to investigate political enemies with little or no evidence of actual wrongdoing. The comparable number for the Biden administration was 45 percent across all respondents, including 43 percent of independents.
7. Trump is the prevailing villain in the story of his indictments
To further test whether the indictments are helping Trump, we asked respondents if they had favorable or unfavorable opinions of the actions, statements and behavior of key players in the federal cases — including not just Trump, but Biden, Garland, special counsel Jack Smith and the Justice Department more generally.
The results were decidedly unhelpful to Trump. Respondents provided Trump with a net favorability rating of -31 percent — the worst figure, by far, in this battery of questions (27 percent favorable vs. 58 percent unfavorable). Biden fared much better than Trump but still came out with a net favorability rating of -9 percent (36 percent favorable vs. 45 percent unfavorable).
By contrast, the Justice Department appears to have come out slightly ahead in the scheme of things, though just barely. Respondents reported a net positive favorability rating for the Justice Department of 7 percent (40 percent favorable vs. 33 percent unfavorable). Smith's conduct received a net positive favorability rating of 6 percent (26 percent favorable vs. 20 percent unfavorable).
And what about the famously circumspect and temperamentally moderate Garland? Perhaps appropriately for the man, Garland came out exactly even, with a net favorability rating of 0 percent in relation to his handling of the cases (22 percent favorable vs. 22 percent unfavorable).
Notably, a majority of respondents didn't know whether to approve or disapprove of how Smith and Garland were handling the cases. Both men are still largely in the background. That may change when Trump gets to trial.
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Only 20% of independents say they dont believe Trump is guilty in the Jan 6 case.
That many? That is disappointing.
Actually, I'm disappointed the "Don't know" category isn't higher. I would like to think those in that category prefer to not give an opinion and instead, hope the legal system gets something like justice, if that is even possible in this case anymore.
Trump is presumed not guilty by our legal system. But that does not apply to people like us forming an opinion and expressing same via a poll.
The poll question asked if we believe Trump is guilty; not if we know he is guilty.
Based on the substantial evidence I have personally seen, my opinion is that the charges are justified and that he should be found guilty of most (if not all).
Thus, given the choices provided in the poll, I would have responded that I believe he is guilty.
Probably no matter the evidence, or lack thereof, you would have come to the same conclusion.
How would I come to the same conclusion if there was no supporting evidence?
The Jan 6 committee reviewed hundreds of interviews containing sworn testimony, largely from people around Trump in one capacity or another. Thy also had the Eastman memo and the recording of the Georgia phone call.
Those who say there is no evidence against Trump simply dont know what they are talking about.
The 'arguments' from GOP loyalists will grow increasingly irrational and shrill as it sinks in that Trump will be their nominee. They will have no choice but to try to defend him. It will be a pathetic spectacle to behold.
it already is
It will get worse.
Imagine the mindset of a GOP loyalist.
Your party (the only party you will vote for; the party to which you are emotionally attached) is almost assuredly going to nominate Trump. That means you will not have the option to vote for someone you really want in the presidency. Just Trump. You can vote for the only PotUS who abused the power and influence of his office to attempt to steal a US presidential election through coercion, false documentation, etc. You can vote for a lifelong malignant narcissist and pathological liar who demonstrably will throw the entire nation under the bus to protect his fragile ego.
That is it. Vote for Trump, abstain or vote 3rd party. And no matter what you do, your party is almost guaranteed to lose in the general election.
Will you recognize that your party has gone dysfunctional, admit it, and work to fix it?
-or-
Will you double and triple down on the insanity of supporting / defending the poisonous parasite Trump that continues to diminish your party?
It will take folks on both sides of the aisle to fix the Repub Party.
Dems could:
Stop promoting Repub extremists in pre-primary ads
Stop elevating the status of the absurd comments of Gaetz, Greene, Boebert ectg. They get stronger and more media coverage from Dem replies
Make deals with the dwindling Repub moderates
A single party isn't in America's best interests and we shouldn't risk the country to a takeover (Senate) of the current Repub Party.
It was the sole choice of the GOP to support and defend Trump. They alone are responsible for what their party stands for. It is illogical to blame the other party for the utter failure of a party to get its house in order.
I agree with the part quoted. That is why it is critical that the GOP get its act together.
Right now I do not recognize the GOP. I am in favor of a political check and balance (rather than have one party control all) but the GOP is in such a mess I am currently undecided on what I will seek. It depends on who might be PotUS. If Biden then I favor a GOP Senate. If Trump then I favor a D Congress. If someone else, then we need specifics.
I think the answer is pretty clear. You have the people who will proudly support trump no matter what (at this point they have joined a cult) and then people like my dad. He will never admit to having been wrong, and even Though he says he doesn’t “like” Trump he will not vote for anyone else out of pure partisan loyalty, and then will start engaging in soviet whataboutism to justify it to himself.
That is where the GOP is now. No alternative, no will to make a change, join the cult of personality fully or find any excuse to justify your blind partisanship.
Yup. That is the irrational, irresponsible, unpatriotic mindset I expect to see (amplified even) as the campaign season progresses.
"Will you recognize that your party has gone dysfunctional, admit it, and work to fix it?"
That might be good advice for the Dems to take. What they are trying to do with all these indictments for mostly process "crimes" and weaponizing Federal agencies, is to interfere in the '24 elections, just like in previous elections. There is no way that Joe Dementia can win another general election. The left continues to ignore his weakness and low poll numbers to their own detriment.
We would be or should I say will be getting this same character assassination if DeSantis or Haley gets the nomination. Until Trump is found guilty in a court-of-law, the views expressed in the court of public and leftist opinion don't matter.
The actions and inactions that Biden is committing on a daily basis damage our country far more than anything that Trump is alleged to have done.
I guess we should all take from your response that of the options provided @2, you (and Just Jim) will take option 2:
"the insanity of supporting / defending the poisonous parasite Trump that continues to diminish your party?"
Your opinion only, and an uninformed one at that. But you know what they say about opinions and assholes.
So it appears you can't defend what's going on in your chosen party.
I intend to vote for DeSantis and/or Haley, which is how I suspect it's eventually going to turn out.
And once again your assumption is dead wrong.
You failed to answer the question again. Is deflecting back to Trump all you can do?
Will you hold Democrats responsible for putting forward the political career criminal who has sold this country out to our enemies; poster child for endless lying; complete and utter disaster in all social situations; wannabe dictator who has threatened to use the US military against the opposition twice in speeches; who thinks East Palestine, OH is in the Middle East and doesn't want to go; with his money laundering drug, alcohol, and sex addicted son who is living in the White House.
Will you hold Democrats to the same standards you hold Trump and Republicans to?
Or will you circle back to Trump yet again- giving Brandon and the Democrats yet another free pass?
Assuredly something trite and along the lines of 'opinions and assholes'. Did you and Greg attend the same school?
Which is my chosen party? (You have no clue what you are talking about.)
I am afraid that you will not have that choice. You will be stuck with Trump,
Are you going to complete your comment with a specific showing how my assumption is wrong or are you going to leave it entirely vague?
Which question are you referring to?
If Biden if found to be a criminal then I will absolutely hold him and the Ds responsible.
Take a breath. Calm down.
I already do, you just cannot see it given the partisan emotional cloud covering your eyes.
Expect the shrill crap to increase as the Trump nomination becomes closer to certainty.
I'm just truly surprised Donald's fans are not cheering his choice of facial expression .... such a conundrum, is he an asshole with an opinion or an opinion with an asshole.
We've been over this already. I am not in the mood for your way of discussion. (aka putting words in my mouth) but thanks for asking
A lame (and dishonest) way to run from a challenge.
I don't think he has since they found that coke... I could be wrong though.
This is nonsense. "Dems" are not doing this. Nothing has been 'weaponized'. Prosecutors have built their cases on the testimony of witnesses who are almost solely Republicans. These cases have been presented to grand juries. These grand juries, upon examining the evidence, are returning indictments.
The justice system is doing its job because one person, Donald Trump, ran an operation that incited an insurrection, attempted a coup, & attempted to abscond with classified information.
As I've noted before, if there are no repercussions for this behavior why shouldn't every presidency end with a coup attempt? Someone may get to be king.
Yawn. You are like my dad, you go with option 2 I mentioned above, engage in deflection and whataboutism to justify your blind partisanship.
Actually, you are part of the cult. You refuse to admit any wrongdoing on trumps part to begin with, or at the very least believe he is above the law.
Nothing has been weaponized, all norms are being followed and indictments have been handed down. The system is working as it was meant to, you just dont like where it is heading as so you start making excuses for the cult leader. Seriously, you are acting EXACTLY like a cult member lol.
The Mugshot
This presidential portrait was inevitable, wasn’t it?
Think for a moment what it took to bring us to this point: the twisted, bizarre, tangled story, with so many chapters, and legions of enablers, rationalizers, clowns, cowards, and co-conspirators.
But it all comes back to the person in this mugshot.
It was always going to end this way, wasn’t it?
If you elect a serial liar and conman, a narcissist, bully, wannabe mobster, with the vocabulary of an emotionally insecure 9-year-old, you can’t really be shocked at how it turned out, can you?
This is what Trump wanted, because this is what he chose.
He could have accepted defeat and allowed the peaceful transfer of power. He could have behaved like every other president in American history.
Instead, he chose to lie about the election. He chose to orchestrate a coup.
He made the decision to defame election workers and attempt to intimidate officials into stealing the vote.
It was his choice to form a criminal enterprise, and conspire to defraud the government, to summon the mob, and sit back as they attacked the Capitol.
It was a conscious decision to steal classified documents — including war plans — and ignore a federal subpoena. It was his choice to try to obstruct and cover up his crime, just like it was his choice to pay hush money to a porn star before the 2016 election.
It was also the GOP’s choice.
Time and again, Republicans had a chance to draw the line, or at least take an off-ramp. They could have stood astride all the insanity and criminality and said no . They could have impeached and disqualified him forever.
Instead, they served up the now-familiar farrago of Faustian bargains, cowardice, magical thinking, and corruption that led us to what happened this week:
When the eight candidates at the GOP debate were asked whether they would support Trump even if he was a convicted felon , six of the eight raised their hands.
Don’t gloss over this extraordinary moment from the party of law and order.
Five minutes ago (in political terms), it would have been the easiest question in the world: no one would even think about voting for or endorsing a candidate convicted of multiple felonies for any office of public trust — not for city council, the state legislature, or secretary of transporation . . . much less the presidency of the United States.
But here we are. The man in the mugshot is almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee for president in 2024.
**
Trump has skirted the ragged edges of the law for decades. So, the mugshot above was inevitable.
But there was nothing inevitable about a political party — and tens of millions of its supporters — looking at this man, and saying, This is fine.
If only they had been warned.
Happy Friday.
[✘]
It's a good thing this country has due process and doesn't convict on the basis of polling data. (Except for liberals. They always jump to conclusions and convict without evidence)
I guess the author of the seeded article and those liberals here must believe Clinton should be in an orange jumpsuit too
From a politico article: