The one number that matters in that New York Times poll
By: Bill Scher (Washington Monthly)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The one number that matters in that New York Times poll
When the NYT pollsters asked "how would you rate economic conditions today," 51 percent said "poor." Only 26 percent said "excellent" or "good."
As a Washington Monthly reader, you know this is simply not true.
Last month, Robert J. Shapiro explained: "No president since Richard Nixon has presided over average annual income gains as significant as the 4.2-percent increase in 2023 under Biden." And last week John E. Schwarz detailed how job and wage gains have been vastly better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones, with Biden's record just the latest example.
Once public perception of the economy catches up with the reality, Biden's numbers should improve.
For example, in a Wall Street Journal poll released this weekend, 38 percent said the economy was either "excellent" or "good." While that's not a gangbusters number, it is the highest percentage in the WSJ poll in two years. And Biden narrowed Trump's lead in that poll from 4 points to 2 since December.
Despite all the recent attention on the Middle East and the southern border, the economy remains the highest priority of voters.
In a CBS News/YouGov poll released this weekend, when asked how much various issues factored into their presidential decision, "the economy," at 82 percent, was the only one cited as a "major factor" by four out of five voters. (Second place: "the state of democracy" at 70 percent.)
And a Fox News poll, also released this weekend, asked voters which issue will be "most important" in determining their vote. "The economy" was the clear winner at 37 percent, with "immigration" well behind at 21 percent. ("Democracy" was not a choice.)
It's possible that the lag between stronger economic performance and stronger presidential approval will organically dissipate over the course of the year. Back in August I wrote about how Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama experienced similar lags in their first terms before eventually winning re-election.
But it's also the case that in our highly polarized era, more voters are firmly partisan and less readily swung by economic performance.
Still, swing voters exist. And Trump and his partisans are furiously romanticizing how life was on his watch which, combined with more recent memories of high inflation, appears to be having an effect on them.
So it may be the case that improving public perception of the economy will not happen organically and will require an aggressive and creative communications strategy.
That's why I recently recommended, in my Washington Monthly column, that Biden and his media team emulate Reagan's uber-optimistic "Morning in America" ad campaign that warmly tells the story of Biden's growing economy, alongside a "Nightmare in America" effort that reminds how Trump tore the country apart and turned us against each other.
Whether or not you agree with my specific prescription, what is irrefutable is that Biden is being held back by a false perception of the American economy.
Furthermore, unlike Biden's age, perceptions of the economy can significantly change and often do over the course of a presidential campaign.
In other words, don't assume that more than half of those polled by The New York Times will keep saying the economy is poor.
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Inflation was 3.4%
in 2019, Trump's last year before Covid, wages increased 4.0% and inflation was 2.2%.
Trump wins.
People were doing better under trump. That is a fact.
The order of the day for the left is to deny, deflect or just plain lie.
Nothing new there.
Nothing new in the exact same comment you make 10 times a day either
Another erroneous comment on your part ……SOSDD
If wages haven't increased by 15 pct then workers are falling behind. A value of $1 when Biden took office is now worth $0.85. That means everyone has lost $150 of value on every $1,000 of savings. Even the returns from gambling on Wall Street aren't keeping up with Biden's inflation.
Biden is presiding over a neoliberal economy. It's a case of getting ahead means you fall behind. People living in the real world, instead Biden's neoliberal fantasyland, understand that this economy sucks.
Don't believe it? Run the calculator yourself.
No need for the calculator. People are the best calculator if they are paying attention. Everything costs more. Many items much more than 15%.
Problem is many useful idiots are too stupid to make the connect.
price gouging ?
Yeah, that’s gotta be it. And shrinkflation. /s.
All someone else’s fault and probably to be emphasized tonite by angry grandpa.
It’s what they got.
Joe is amazing. Everything does is positive, helps keep costs down, makes people more money, makes people safer, etc, etc.
And all while munching on chocolate chip ice cream.
Amazing!
So . . . I followed the source, and then the link to the story, and then the link in that story to the claim being made. Here is the final link:
To my eye, it doesn't make any such comparison.
What it does show is both income and outlays bouncing around over the last 6 months, but a generally negative trend that results in a decrease to savings. In other words, people are generally making money at less than the increasing cost of living, and therefore digging into their savings more. That sounds about right to me.
Finances are not my strong suit, by any means, but even I understand that it doesn't matter what your wages are doing if prices are going up faster.