Opinion: Inflation, not Epstein, is Trump’s biggest challenge

The economy is bad, really bad, for an increasing number of people.  The prospects for the future are looking bleaker every day with job losses to AI, businesses unable to break their addiction to imports, and Trump's renewed advocacy for H1-B workers and economic immigrants.  Those who are benefiting from this economy seem poised to hold a fire sale at the first sign of recession. 

And signs of an inflationary recession are on the horizon.  The worry is that the TEA Party response to recession will be government austerity which stalls recovery.  Joe Biden handicapped himself with high inflation for his entire term.  The revived TEA Party within Republican ranks threatens to handicap the remainder of Trump's 2nd term with persistent recession.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T

Jeffrey Epstein and his recently exposed  email references to Donald Trump  have, not surprisingly, dominated news coverage. The story is perfect for the media: salacious and embarrassing, with the added twist of political flip-flopping. Trump being the target makes it even better, for a group that has loathed the president since the day he won in 2016. 

But do American voters care about those emails? Put another way, does anyone facing   rising utility bills , higher   grocery prices   and bigger   health insurance   premiums really have the time or interest to obsess over this issue?

Sure, Trump’s   numbers   may be bad on this issue, but is it really salient — except to the gossipmongers on cable TV and the podcast world? 

The clear answer is no. 

Inflation is the biggest concern for the public — and it is not even close. In the most recent   Harvard-Harris poll , generally favorable to Trump, inflation is cited as the most important issue by 48 percent of voters, far ahead of any other issue. Independents cite inflation at 51 percent. 

Among all respondents, immigration is at a mere 10 percent, crime at 8 percent and climate change is way off the radar at 6 percent.

When asked if Trump’s policies help or hurt on inflation, 56 percent of independents said he is making things worse. Even 30 percent of Republicans think Trump’s policies make inflation worse. That is a huge number given the partisan divide. 

In the recent   YouGov poll , generally unfavorable for Trump, inflation is the top issue, as it has been for the past three years. At 27 percent for all respondents, inflation is 12 points ahead of “jobs and the economy.” In third was health care, at 11 percent — which, given   rising health insurance premiums , is at least partly a proxy for inflation. In addition, 40 percent view the state of the economy as “poor,” including 47 percent of independents. Only 25 percent viewed the economy as “good” or “excellent,” including 22 percent of independents. 

The voters are saying loud and clear they are angry about inflation, and they have been saying it for years. Going back through the YouGov weekly benchmark, inflation was the top issue all the way back to 2023, and it has been rising consistently. At 17 percent of voters in March 2023, that level rose to 20 percent by early 2024 and was 24 percent on the eve of Kamala Harris’s nomination — more than double the second-best issue. 

When asked in that same poll in August 2024, a whopping 96 percent of voters said inflation was “very” or “somewhat” important, with 77 percent at “very important.” Those figures were higher than any other issue. 

The recent elections were clearly driven by inflation. In both the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races,   higher electricity bills   were front and center. New Yorkers seem less to have voted for socialism than to have voted against   rocketing rent prices .  

The voters are speaking loud and clear, but far too many politicians and out-of-touch media   bloviators   are not listening. 

There is no question inflation destroyed Joe Biden’s re-election efforts long before his disastrous debate meltdown. He was running even to slightly behind Trump nationally and competitive in the key swing states until   fall 2023 . Two events happened that likely wrecked Biden’s election calculus. The first was the Hamas attacks in October. Then in November people started getting their   health insurance bills   for 2024 and saw those costs rising. 

Team Biden and their friends in the media went into overdrive in response, even denying inflation was a problem. As the problem got worse, they had no solutions. Harris was no better, mostly trying to skate around the issue, petrified of separating herself from the toxic Biden. Voters duly punished the Democrats for their timorous, feckless behavior. 

For some time, it looked like Trump was going down the same path. But whatever you think of him, he has a good ear for the public mood. As a result, despite initial denials and his instinctive defensiveness, Trump has caught on. He is promising a   cash rebate   and   removed tariffs   on some food items. Trump is pressing for   deals   on certain drug prices. 

It’s a bit of a patchwork in a situation where a more broad-based, systemic approach is needed. But at least Trump recognizes the problem, unlike somnambulant Biden. Trump should be more dramatic — create a national “affordability task force,” and be more targeted with his tariff policy. America needs secure supply chains and a stronger tech manufacturing sector; the country does not need to Make Disposal Pens Great Again or re-shore Halloween costume production. 

What Trump should not do is allow himself to get bogged down in the salacious Epstein dead end. Nothing nauseates the public more about the media and the political establishment than ignoring real economic concerns in favor of a political freak show. Trump needs to buckle down and get results. If he does, winning is bound to follow. 

Keith Naughton , a longtime Republican political consultant, is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Republican political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.