US races to accomplish Iran mission before munitions run out
By: Michael R. Gordon, Shelby Holliday (The Wall Street Journal via MSN)
Trump is on a short deadline dictated by logistics and supply chains. Trump is under increasing pressure to accept whatever deal he can get.
Too bad Trump abandoned MAGA because he is demonstrating the simple fact that factories are necessary to fight wars. Burning though a munitions stockpile in a matter of days while waiting 2 years for replacements isn't the way to project strength.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
When the U.S. military’s top general laid out the risks to President Trump of launching a major and extended attack on Iran, one of the issues he flagged was America’s stockpile of munitions.
Now that is being put to the test, as the U.S. races to destroy Iran’s missile and drone force before it runs out of interceptors to fend off Tehran’s retaliation, current and former officials and analysts say.
The precise size of the U.S. stock of air-defense interceptors—what the Pentagon calls magazine depth—is classified. But repeated conflicts with Iran and its proxies in the Middle East have been eating into the supply of air defenses in the region.
Since Saturday morning Tehran time, the U.S. and its allies in the region have pounded an array of leadership and military targets in the country, including Iran’s missile launchers, drones and airfields. One reason the U.S. and Israel struck first, a senior official said Saturday, was to blunt Iran’s ability to retaliate with its missiles and drones.
It isn’t yet clear how long the strikes will need to last. “The heavy and pinpoint bombing, however, will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary to achieve our objective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD!” Trump posted on social media on Saturday.
Iran’s retaliation on Saturday has been more ragged than in the 12-day war when it fired more than 500 missiles and many more attack drones. Israel’s announcement that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an airstrike could also hasten an end to the conflict, though it is far from clear who might succeed him.
Still, U.S. Central Command said Saturday that its force has already mounted a largely successful defense against hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks, though some have managed to hit their targets, especially in Arab Gulf states that are close to Iran. The conflict isn’t over, and there are still more U.S., Israeli and Iranian strikes to come.
“One of the challenges is you can deplete these really quickly,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank who used to teach at the Air Command and Staff College. “We’re using them faster than we can replace them.”
The Thaad antimissile system was deployed to Israel in 2024, along with the U.S. Army troops to operate it, as the Biden administration sought to protect the country against Iran. A Thaad has also been deployed to Jordan, where many U.S. combat aircraft are now deployed. A major concern for the Pentagon is to maintain a sufficient stock of interceptors for the Thaad, which U.S. forces also operate in South Korea and Guam, to deter North Korea and China.
The Pentagon is also racing to replenish stocks of Patriot and Standard Missile interceptors, which also take out aerial threats and are being used to defend against Iranian missiles and drones. Patriots take out lower-flying threats, while SM-3s can intercept ballistic missiles above the Earth’s atmosphere.
Air-defense interceptors aren’t the only munitions that are in short supply. The U.S. is also expending sea-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles, widely known as TLAMs, and aircraft-launched weapons against Iranian targets. This comes on the heels of Operation Rough Rider, the U.S. campaign last year when the U.S. used long-range precision weapons against Yemen-based Houthi militants.
“The Trump administration has fired TLAMS at an extraordinary rate in operations around the globe, in the Middle East against Iran and the Houthis as well as in Nigeria on Christmas Day,” said Becca Wasser, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
Those weapons are well-suited for striking infrastructure and would be in high demand in the early weeks of a potential conflict with China.
“When we wargame, TLAMS are some of the first munitions to go within that first week of a U.S.-China conflict,” Wasser said. To compensate for the shortfall, she added, the Pentagon would need to double down on procurement and production.
The continuing air campaign against Iran doesn’t appear to have featured U.S. long-range antiship missiles, which the U.S. would also need if there was a conflict with China.
One development that will ease the strain on the American supply of offensive munitions is the involvement of Israel’s military, which it said carried out the strikes against Iran’s military leadership.
But Israel has concerns about its munitions supply as well. It is still low on Arrow 3 air-defense interceptors, another U.S. official says. Israel is also low on air-launched ballistic missiles, a weapon it used to take out Iranian missile launchers this summer and to attack Hamas leaders in Qatar last year, the official said.
Jonathan Conricus, a former spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces who is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said he was “underwhelmed so far by the amount of missiles that the Iranians have been able to fire.”
“Eventually it boils down to numbers,” he added. “How many interceptors will we have versus how much launchers will they be able to field and fire.”
The U.S. moved a large supply of missiles and interceptors to the regions, including from partners that have interceptors. If the war drags on and more interceptors are needed, the Pentagon would need to decide whether to access stockpiles in the Pacific, a U.S. official said.
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Trump's shock & awe is on a supply chain leash. Even Trump can't escape that vulnerability with bluff & bluster.
So, where are the factories Trump promised?
They will be built in 2 weeks.
number of new factories built since 2024
Per COPILOT
Just an FYI: The US dollar has devalued by 30% since 2019.
The amount of dollars being spent really doesn't say much about how many factories are being constructed.
Yeah, I've felt it. Okay, so are you suggesting it's actually up only 187% since 2019? At least 30-40 factories have been built or begun construction possibly 50+ according to the same source. Is the problem that they weren't munitions factories? Seems rather neocon...
I'm suggesting that dollar investments aren't very informative.
I doubt we'll deploy troops dressed in loincloths. The military requires much, much more than munitions. While the current concern is focused on munition stockpiles, that doesn't tell the whole story either.
Okay Nerm, increased manufacturing facilities is increased manufacturing facilities...
Most of which was invested in new electric vehicle tech like EV batteries which Ford just shuttered and GM and Stellantis are following them.
Besides that AI takes all the info it gathers including the Administrations own exaggerated propaganda and throws out numbers that no one can quantify,
please avoid AI.
Ground-breaking ceremonies with lots of reporters and photographers.
Then..... nothing...
Get the good headlines, and then wait for MAGA to go away...
Foxconn
So...are we going to throw EV batteries at Iran?
If they were dropped from altitude, they are probably illegal by U.N. or Geneva standards because of the chemicals, volatility and difficulty in extinguishing when burning.
Maybe we can get a medal for suggesting it.
Why? It's the future, haven't you heard?...
Assuming you are talking about AI.
After ATT came through the neighbor hood and knocked over my mailbox, created a flood by breaking the neighbors water line and now I find a major leak in the sprinkler system right next to the mailbox.
Contractor declines claim and blames line burying contractor but they decline because they weren't on that lawn.
I started a damage claim with ATT and they emailed me the Claim number several times, finally the claims adjuster called with the correct claim number stating that "nothing works right" after AT&T committed to AI and laid off a lot of the customer relations peeps.
My own work where I already know the correct answer, but I am required to Cite, I cannot cite as easily or find the correct cite in three times as longsearching.
On the other hand, the IT engineers working with accounting gush with praise about how it crunches numbers.
The question is what the Iranian people will do. I spent some time there, a decade ago. They were astonishingly open about their distaste for the Ayatollahs... and about their distaste for America. (I was using my French passport, of course!)
Will they be outraged that America is once again trying to impose a government on them... or relieved to see Khomeini dead. I don't know.
I'm pretty sure that occupying a country that has over 90 millions people will not be simple...
Were they demanding a secular, western style government to replace the Ayatollahs? Or were they demanding liberal reforms for the orthodox theocratic government?
Iran has millions of people that live in big cities and live an urban existence with culture, shopping, and universities. They have millions of people that live in the countryside that are backwards, totally tied to strict religious observance, and a somewhat primitive lifestyle.
So, a lot like America...with one side wanting to force everyone to live under religious conservative rulers who force their religious morality on the nation through laws, and the other side just wanting to live their lives in peace free of religious tyranny so they can marry who they want, dress how they want and worship any God they want or none.
It is a bit funny to see the rightwing religious conservative Christo-fascists pushing for another unprovoked war that just so happens to be against their ideological twins, they just push a different brand of theocracy. And now multiple American soldiers' lives have been lost in an unprovoked war of aggression started by another Republican President without the approval of congress. It's hard to imagine where to really go from here now that Trump and the moronic dingleberries that put him in power have shat all over our nation and global allies. It will take decades to recover from these un-American psychos even if we do get a rational intelligent progressive in the oval office.
That does not answer my questions.
They still remembered Mossadegh. They wanted democracy, although I'm not sure they know what that means. (I'm not sure Americans know, either... but that's for another day.
The similarities in behavior are among religious fanatics are so much more significant than any nitpicking theological details. Christ or Mohammed? No matter. Obedience is what's important!
I saw an interview with the Iranian Crown Prince (the last Shah's son) talking about how he would bring democratic principals and ideals to Iran. Maybe he could. Or he could turn out to be just like his father
The CIA engineered the coup that removed Mossadegh 73 years ago. The United States installed Shah Reza Pahlavi who sold out Iran to British and US interests. The Iranian people rose up and threw out the US and European meddlers in 1979. Now the US is back with new, improved meddling.
Today Iranians want less severe enforcement of Sharia law and lower prices. Very similar to the Ukrainian Maiden protests of 2004. Seems the United States cannot avoid wading into quagmires.
No they didn't.
Iran doesn’t need any help collapsing their country. Without water human life ceases to exist, and water scarcity is on an irreversible trajectory in Iran. Nuclear ambitions should be the least of either country’s worries, since their days are numbered by nature and their failure to come up with working solutions.
If they weren't so anti-science they could find working solutions to their water problem
If god wasn’t such a fake solution to everything then science could actually get a foothold. Religion poisons everything, everywhere.
If you mean progressivism and climate change, you are correct.
By golly, you’re half right! Climate change does poison everything, everywhere. That is a massive improvement for you. Baby steps …
Can you point out on the doll where climate change has hurt you?
Well, they share the same root so it should be expected. Islam, Christianity and Judaism all worship the same God and yet each one claims exclusivity so it's to be expected. Abraham worshiped the ancient God of the Hebrews, YHWH, Yehovah, whatever you want to call it, and that God supposedly made two promises, one to Abraham and one to Hagar, the maid Abraham knocked up before getting his supposedly 90-year-old wife pregnant with Isaac.
So, three religions spring from the same root. Judaism following the Isaac branch, Islam following the Ishmael branch and Christianity claiming the Isaac root and then the subsequent Jesus branch (after they claim Isreal gave up their birthright by giving Jesus up to the Romans for execution). So here we are, with two of the three Abrahamic religions dragging our sons and daughters out to die in their overseas religious war against the third. Can anyone on the right really look themselves in the face and say "Yes! Iran was an imminent threat! It's all justified!" without at least feeling a little hollow inside, knowing how fucking hypocritical and blatantly partisan they sound?
Who said anyone was doing that?
Morning..not much I don't think...just because the Ayatolla is out of the way doesn't mean any drastic change will happen..
If anything the country will implode as the factional fighting will start up and the "mine is bigger than yours" game will begin..
Throw in the religious factions and the military and the infighting will commence...
Iran's hatred of America, Israel and the West will not lessen and any uprising will soon be quelled..the one a few weeks ago was doomed before it even started..
Tens of thousands of people is not going to do it, millions need to uprise and that's not going to happen..they will be squashed and no one will give a stuff about them within a few weeks...
Iran will fall into the same basket of failed uprisings or replacing one tyrant with another as in China, Syria, Libya, Myanmar, Iraq etc etc..because Iran's hatred of America, Israel and the West is far greater than anything else...
So no I wouldn't get to excited about the Ayatolla carking it and some miraculous change happening in Iran anytime soon..