New Poll Shows How Top 2028 Potential Democratic Candidates Have Shifted
By: Andrew Stanton (Newsweek)
The crystal ball is very, very hazy at this early data. Especially since there are only 'maybe' candidates to consider.
June 26, 2026 -- A new McLaughlin poll shows shifts in a possible 2028 Democratic primary, with former Vice President Kamala Harris' early lead tightening and California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez gaining support as potential candidates weigh whether to jump into the race.
The 2028 presidential field could begin coming into view in the months ahead with candidates potentially announcing their campaigns as early as next year after the midterms. On the Democratic side, prospective candidates are already testing their messages and heading to key primary states to build up their name recognition and make inroads with voters.
Early polls are not always predictive of final outcomes, but they do have major implications for candidates. Donors and voters use polls to gauge whether a candidate is viable, so the numbers matter to a candidate's ability to fundraise and garner media attention. They also measure initial name recognition among potential candidates.
Kamala Harris' Lead Narrows in Democratic Primary Poll
In the poll that was released this week, Harris is in front—but her lead has narrowed, with other candidates like Newsom and New York's Ocasio-Cortez seeing increases in their support.
Harris' support stood at 26 percent in the poll, while 16 percent of respondents said they would vote for Newsom and 9 percent for Ocasio-Cortez. Eight percent said they would vote for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Support for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro stood at 5 percent each. Three percent said they would vote for Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, while Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer received 2 percent each, according to the poll.
Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel received 1 percent support, while 17 percent were still undecided, the poll found.
The poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from June 17-23.
Notably, some potential 2028 candidates including Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear were not included in the polling.
How Does That Compare to Past Polls?
In June 2025, a McLaughlin poll showed that 30 percent of Democrats planned to vote for Harris, 8 percent for Newsom, 10 percent for Buttigieg and 7 percent for Ocasio-Cortez and Booker. Shapiro and Whitmer saw 3 percent in that poll, while Pritzker and Moore's support stood at 1 percent.
The following chart shows how candidates' chances have shifted in each of the surveys from McLaughlin, a Republican-leaning pollster.
What Do Other Pollsters Show?
A recent poll from AtlasIntel found Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite among progressive Democrats, leading among a crowded field of potential candidates, with 26 percent of respondents saying they would vote for her in the primary.
Buttigieg followed with 22.4 percent, while Newsom received 21.2 percent of support in the poll. Harris received the backing of 12.9 percent of respondents. No other candidates received double-digit support in the poll, which surveyed 2,069 U.S. adults from May 4-7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
A Harvard/Harris poll released in April showed Harris with support from 50 percent of Democrats in the primary race, up from 41 percent in March and 39 percent in January and February.
Newsom followed Harris with 22 percent support, while Shapiro received 9 percent. Ocasio-Cortez received 8 percent, while Pritzker received 6 percent. Five percent said they would vote for someone else.
The poll surveyed 2,745 registered voters April 23-26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.87 percentage points.
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Newsom is favored in prediction markets, and his chances increased after he said the Department of Justice (DOJ) was investigating him earlier in June. As of Friday, he had a 24 percent chance of winning the nomination on Kalshi, while his chances stood at 21 percent on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Who Is Running for President? What Other 2028 Contenders Have Said
Some 2028 Democrats haven't ruled out running. Harris, who has traveled to states like Michigan and South Carolina in recent months, suggested she could run again without making a formal announcement.
"I might. I am thinking about it," she told Reverend Al Sharpton in April after he asked whether she planned to run for president in 2028 during the National Action Network's annual convention. Harris noted she "served for four years being a heartbeat away from the presidency of the United States."
"I spent countless hours in my West Wing office footsteps away from the Oval Office. I spent countless hours in the Oval Office and the Situation Room. I know what the job is, and I know what it requires," she said.
Newsom discussed the possibility of running in a June 2025 interview with The Wall Street Journal.
"I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold," he said.
Ocasio-Cortez addressed presidential speculation in a conversation with David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, earlier in May.
"My ambition is to change this country," she said. "Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers' rights are forever, women's rights, all of that, and so anyways...to a finer point to your question is that when you aren't attached, when you haven't been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, it is tremendously liberating."
Others have indicated they do not plan to run.
"There will be a robust group of people running for president," Whitmer told Detroit news station WJBK in May. "I will not be one of them in 2028. I can tell you that."
What Happens Next
Future polls will be closely watched to determine how the DOJ investigation impacts Newsom's standing among primary voters. Candidates are likely to begin announcing campaigns in early 2027.
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My intuition is telling me that the Democratic Presidential candidate for 2028 likely won't be from New York or California. Pete Buttigieg and Mark Kelly would be strong contenders if they decide to run. They both have national recognition and have created a brand on plain talk. Gretchen Whitmer could get the nod from the Democratic Party establishment although Josh Shapiro might also be an appealing establishment candidate. I don't see J.B. Pritzker or Andy Beshear surviving the primaries.
Pete and Mark are solid D candidates. Either would be polar opposite of Trump in terms of maturity, character, competence, sense of duty, lawfulness, integrity, etc.
I worry about extant bigotry in the general with Pete; I am not sure the electorate is ready to elect anyone who is not male and straight.
Nice to imagine having a PotUS who is fit to serve in that capacity.
To me they are both straight talking pragmatists rather than ideologues.
I'm not so sure that will be as big a factor. Of course, that depends upon the LGBTQ+-(whatever) faction not making asses of themselves. That's going to be a tall ask.
It's obviously way, way, waaay too early to make predictions. I get the feel that the electorate would be receptive to a softer, less aggressive, more pragmatic MAGA agenda. Republicans don't have anyone who can pull that off. To me, Buttigieg and Kelly could pull that off. Whitmer is a possibility.
Agreed.
To my knowledge, there is no such thing as a softer, less aggressive, more pragmatic MAGA agenda.
MAGA runs on grievance, contempt, and performative toughness. The bullying is not an accidental flaw. It is part of the product.
I hope reasonableness and decorum return, but I do not see MAGA as the vehicle for that. A toned-down MAGA would still be the same grievance politics with better manners. Does that even compute?
My guess is that MAGA, as a dominant political force, is nearing the end of its usefulness. I think the country is getting tired of billionaires, grifters, and political strongmen dressing up their own hunger for power as populism.
A more pragmatic MAGA agenda would likely be that of the prior GOP. Those who no longer operate in the GOP because they refuse to support Trump.
That GOP might be dead at this point. It is really hard to imagine how a decent GOP can emerge from the disaster that is GOPTRUMP.
It is a sickening situation ... the amount of damage by one man (Trump) is staggering.
How is that different than 21st century Democratic Party politics?
Not as long as progressives push a radical agenda based solely on grievances.
better manners? Does such an animal exist?
Ronald Reagan is finally and thoroughly dead. MAGA was a repudiation of Third Way neoliberalism. The grassroots MAGA movement wanted a return to an industrialized economy and a moral society.
A penthouse billionaire from New York fucked that up. IMO that's why the electorate is dividing into the coastal progressives and heartland pragmatists. The middle of the country (from the Appalachians to the Rockies) has always been center-right.
Yes, it is. But Trump did not set the precedent for an expanded autocratic executive. Trump has only compressed the overreach into a shorter time span. The Presidencies of Barack Obama and Joe Biden were not more 'democratic' than Trump's Presidency.
We know MAGA has deeper roots than Trump because even Democrats have shifted away from the Third Way neoliberalism of Bill Clinton. That's why the Democratic Party is locked in an existential struggle with a radical agenda advocated by coastal progressives.
The coastal progressives want Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Those three politicians advocate for using the executive to bypass the legislature and the courts. The coastal progressives want a President who will govern in the same manner as Trump by imposing their progressive policies onto the country.
Presidents of both parties have indeed pushed the boundaries of executive authority. The difference is in frequency and governing philosophy. Trump's approach has often been to act first, test the limits of presidential power, and continue exercising that authority until the courts or Congress intervene. Previous presidents overreached at times, but generally as exceptions rather than a defining feature of their administrations.
And importantly, even those criticized as dishonest, corrupt, or arrogant at least projected a sense that they were serving an office with responsibilities that transcended their personal interests. Respect for the office and the nation. Trump treats the presidency as an extension of his personal brand, using it to advance his own political, personal, and financial interests while largely ignoring campaign promises, institutional norms, traditions, and his oath of office.
I know of no other PotUS who comes even close to the extremes of Trump.
Spare me the tortured victim routine.
Yes, Democrats complain about things. Every political movement does. Civil rights, labor rights, women’s rights, voting rights, health care, wages, corruption, reproductive freedom, all of those start with someone saying, “This is wrong and it should be changed.”
That is not the same thing as MAGA.
MAGA’s grievance is not tied to a normal policy argument. It is built around the idea that the country has been stolen, that the press is the enemy, that courts are corrupt unless they rule the right way, that elections are fake unless MAGA wins, and that one strong man is needed to punish the right people.
That is a very different thing.
MAGA has an Animal Farm quality to it. The rules are sacred when they are being used against immigrants, Democrats, protesters, journalists, judges, civil servants, or anyone else outside the circle. But when Trump or his people do the same or worse, suddenly the rules become flexible.
That is the MAGA version of equality: strict rules for everyone outside the circle, endless exceptions for everyone inside it. Because, as we all know, they are exceptional. /s
That is not my view. My progressive attitude is much simpler than that. People should be able to exist peacefully without being harassed, targeted, demonized, or having the government shoved into their private lives. If they are not hurting anyone, let them live.
That is the difference. I am not asking for special rules for my side. I am asking for the same basic freedom and dignity to apply to everyone. MAGA talks about freedom, but too often what it means is freedom for itself and dominion over everyone else.
As for the “radical agenda based solely on grievances,” Meh. What radical agenda? Lower drug prices? Higher wages? Paid leave? Reproductive rights? Voting rights? Health care access? Taxing billionaires at something closer to the rate ordinary working people pay?
You can disagree with those policies. Fine. But calling them “grievances” does not make them disappear as policy positions.
Progressives are not the reason MAGA behaves the way it does. MAGA behaves that way because contempt, resentment, and loyalty to Trump are central to the product. Blaming progressives for MAGA is just giving MAGA an excuse for what it already wanted to be.
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Then perhaps it is time to review history. Andrew Jackson, Andrew Johnson, Grover Cleveland, and William McKinley governed in a similar manner. Historians tend to compare the Trump Presidency with that of Andrew Jackson (a founder of the Democratic Party).
You are substantially downplaying what Trump has done or exaggerating past PotUS'. Our historical presidents have done bad things but none of them have fired on all cylinders of corruption, dishonesty, incompetence, lawlessness, vindictiveness, irresponsibility, unpresidential behavior, disregard for the nation and its people, and flat out abuse of power as Trump.
What 'tortured victim' routine? I asked how your description of MAGA is different than 21st century Democratic Party politics.
You do not see this as a list of narrow special interests seeking preferential treatment? All these progressive special interests rely upon a message of "grievance of disadvantage so we're owed something".
Well, that's true. MAGA grievances are "we built something, we earned something and special interests are trying to take it away". MAGA grievances aren't based on disadvantage. While progressives whine about being denied something they never had, MAGA is whining about something they built for themselves being taken away.
Isn't there a real difference between an earned privilege and a stolen privilege?
Get back to me when you figure out that expelling a kid for wearing a T-shirt displaying a Confederate flag creates an insurmountable academic barrier for the kid. Progressives demand zero-tolerance for anything that threatens their preferential privileges. But progressives will defend the transvestite putting on a public performance for small children disguised as a book reading.
Then why do progressives always autocratically impose zero-tolerance codes onto everything? Using authoritarian force to impose ideological prerogatives onto society is not peaceful.
Then why does 'your side' demand special rules? Why does 'your side' use authority to force everyone to conform to your point of view?
The tortured victim routine is the part where every demand for equal treatment gets recast as someone stealing something from you.
You're fucking right I do not.
Let's read the list again, shall we? And this time we will put your MAGA framing next to my progressive framing.
That is the distinction. You are describing rights as theft because someone else might lose the power to deny them. I am describing rights as rights.
Then you say MAGA grievances are different because, “we built something, we earned something and special interests are trying to take it away.” That is the part I reject. Nobody builds anything entirely alone. People work hard, take risks, and make choices, but every success rests on visible and invisible help from other people and from society itself: workers, customers, roads, schools, courts, public safety, accumulated knowledge, and a functioning economy.
What is the saying? “There, but for the grace of God, go I.” That phrase exists for a reason. It is supposed to remind people that fortune is not virtue, hardship is not moral failure, and success is not proof that no one helped you.
We are all seconds away from financial ruin. Our number has just not come up... yet.
You ask, “Isn’t there a real difference between an earned privilege and a stolen privilege?”
Yes, there is. But if the so-called earned privilege depends on other people being excluded, silenced, underpaid, overruled, or dependent on someone else’s permission, then I do not regard that as earned. I regard that as theft of another sort.
A right is not theft just because someone else loses the power to deny it.
A lot of American history is people fighting to receive what the country claimed they already had: equal protection, equal dignity, equal access, and the freedom to live without someone else deciding how much of their humanity counts.
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True, where would you rank America in regards to the issues you mentioned?
To tell the truth, I cannot be certain at the present moment. We are backsliding right now. And of course there is always the question, "Rank according to what?"
You, the person I asked. Backsliding?... How?
Ranking assumes something to rank against. The world? I would say we are doing pretty good.
Against the stated ideals of the nation? There is vast room for improvement.
IMO Josh Shapiro would be the best choice, but then he is a......
I like Josh Shapiro. But, yeah, his religion could get in the way. It happened with Romney.
Bigotry is not quite dead in the USA.
I am very curious about the Rs. I suspect (strongly) MAGA types will dominate the party for years now. If so, they will not get my vote.
Question to Gemini Flash:
"Did Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Kamala Harris advocate that President Joe Biden use executive authority and executive orders to avoid or bypass Congress on some issues?"
Response by Gemini Flash:
Yes, all three have, at various points during Joe Biden's presidency, publicly urged or supported the use of executive action to enact policy goals when legislation was stalled or blocked in Congress.
However, their specific approach, frequency, and public posture on the issue differed significantly depending on their respective roles.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
As a leader of the progressive wing in the House, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez has been the most vocal and explicit in demanding that President Biden bypass a gridlocked Congress. She has frequently argued that the administration should maximize the limits of executive power to deliver on key Democratic promises.
Climate Change: AOC, alongside Senator Bernie Sanders, introduced legislation and repeatedly petitioned Biden to declare a national "climate emergency" under the National Emergencies Act. This move was designed to unlock over 100 special presidential powers to halt fossil fuel projects and fast-track green energy without needing congressional approval.
Student Loan Forgiveness: When broad student debt cancellation legislative efforts stalled, she aggressively pressured the White House to cancel debt unilaterally via executive action using the Higher Education Act.
Abortion Access: Following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, AOC publicly urged the Biden administration to use executive authority to open reproductive healthcare clinics on federal lands located within states with abortion bans.
Gavin Newsom
As Governor of California, Gavin Newsom's relationship with federal executive power was more strategic. While he routinely used sweeping executive orders at the state level (such as mandates regarding electric vehicles and a moratorium on the death penalty), his calls for federal executive action usually occurred when he felt national momentum on progressive issues was lagging.
Gun Control: Frustrated by federal legislative inaction following multiple mass shootings, Newsom publicly challenged national leaders—including Biden—to be more aggressive. While he eventually pushed for a U.S. Constitutional Amendment (which requires states/Congress), he strongly advocated for the White House to use executive actions to tighten regulations on "ghost guns" and background check loopholes.
Protecting the Administration: Newsom’s calls were rarely framed as an adversarial "bypass Congress" demand like AOC's; instead, he frequently framed executive orders as a necessary defensive shield to protect rights (such as reproductive freedom and environmental regulations) when Congress failed to pass codifying laws.
Kamala Harris
As Joe Biden’s Vice President, Kamala Harris’s public stance was bound strictly to the official agenda of the White House. However, her advocacy for using executive authority to circumvent a blocked Congress is deeply evident in how the administration actually operated, as well as her own policy stances.
The "Pen and Phone" Strategy: When the Republican-controlled House or razor-thin Senate majorities blocked major voting rights bills (like the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act) and abortion protections, Harris explicitly defended the administration’s pivot to executive orders. She frequently joined Biden in signing and publicly championing executive actions aimed at protecting reproductive healthcare access and expanding federal voter registration efforts.
Prior Policy Stances: During her own 2020 presidential primary campaign, Harris explicitly stated that if elected, she would give Congress a 100-day deadline to pass comprehensive gun control legislation. If they failed to act, she promised to bypass them entirely and implement sweeping gun control measures via executive order.
Racial tolerance trumped religious prejudices in 2008...
Good analogy
Four legs good! Two legs better!
Put down the Ayn Rand novel
Why are you quoting Thomas to direct your comment at me?
You're the one that sounds like he's read Atlas Shrugged way too many times
It showed some growth in our electorate.
That doesn't really carry much weight anymore. The FAUA movement is rapidly taking over. They're seemingly raising millions while the DNC is millions in the hole. I doubt that any you mentioned get within sniffing distance...
The Democratic Party establishment is all about the money. I get the impression that the big money campaigns have run their course and won't be as persuasive for the growing ranks of unaffiliated voters.
Whoever it is, they will have to be approved by Hamas
More neo-fascist propaganda, as seen regularly on NT.
Not like anyone else here is stupid enough to believe them, but they seem to have fun lying to themselves.
Could the terrorist vote be why Harris is "leading" the poll? I'm sure the Taliban supports her.
The Taliban's brothers-in-arms are America's right-wing Christian Nationalists. The terrorists are on Trump's side.
I thought it would be the Democrats after everything Sleepy Joe and Democrats gave them.
The fact that mayor Pete has never accomplished anything other than taking the longest paternal leave ever in the middle of a crisis won’t hurt him. The fact that he gets litterally zero support from black voters will,
identify politics matter a lot in the democratic primary and the bigotry will make him unelectable unless the field is massive ans allows him to win with 20% or so.
After extensive consultation with my overly astringent editorial assistant:
He does have part of the DEI vote. Unfortunately that's not enough as he will need the rest of the DEI voters.
Additionally we have to consider the idiot socialists in the mix. That appears to be fracturing the Democrats from within. Which side will Paternity Leave Petey fall?
He did make some roads less racist, so there is that.
Holding public office without destroying western civilization is a noteworthy accomplishment.
That's an extremely low bar....
This poll is almost certainly based on name recognition.
Mayor Pete had his children removed for 24 hours by the state of Michigan dcfs…
permchatgpt:
In Michigan, the legal standard for temporarily removing a child from the home is intentionally high. Both the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) and the court must generally conclude that removal is necessary because the child cannot be safely protected while remaining in the home, and that less restrictive alternatives are inadequate.
Before ordering temporary removal into foster care, a court must find all of the following:
What are "reasonable efforts"?
Michigan law requires CPS to try to keep families together whenever it can be done safely. Examples of "reasonable efforts" include:
If CPS does not provide these preventive services before seeking removal, it must document why it was not possible to do so.
Emergency removals
There is an important exception for emergencies. A child may be removed immediately if there is:
Michigan policy describes emergency removals as appropriate only in rare and extreme circumstances when there is immediate danger. In those situations, there may be no opportunity to provide preventive services first.
Burden
Why do you put forth this crap trying to make it seem as though Buttigieg did something wrong?
You know why. Anything to "own" the libs or make them look bad. It's unfortunate that they can't find the person who made the report so they could arrest them
[✘]
At long last have MAGA no decency? No shame? Is there no low too low for MAGA to go? The ugliest aspect of MAGA is their willingness to destroy the lives and careers of anyone who stands in their way?