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Takeaways from a Republican wipeout

  
Via:  Nerm_L  •  5 days ago  •  20 comments

By:   Dan Merica, Dan Diamond, Gregory S. Schneider, Cleve R. Wootson Jr., Laura Beveridge and Clara Ence Morse (The Washington Post)

Takeaways from a Republican wipeout
Democrats won up and down the ballot nationwide, carrying almost every competitive race in states once considered wholly out of reach for the party.

Sponsored by group News Viners

News Viners

The election was NOT an endorsement for Democrats.  The weak leadership of the Democratic Party will try to spin it that way but that's just another partisan lie.  The election was a repudiation of Donald Trump and not much more can be taken away from the results.


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


It was a Republican wipeout.

Democrats won up and down the ballot nationwide last night, carrying almost every competitive race in states once considered wholly out of reach for the party and delivering a stunning rebuke to President Donald Trump’s leadership.

“This is a change election,” said Hakeem Jeffries, the New York Democrat in line to be the next speaker of the House. “And we understand as House Democrats that we need to deliver dramatic change.”

Democrats needed to win Senate races in states Trump dominated just two years ago, and they delivered, winning races in South Carolina, Kansas and Iowa, among others. The party also delivered a striking blow to the heart of Republican politics, winning Texas’s high-profile Senate and gubernatorial races, the first Democrats to do so since 1994. Democrats flipped the House through a number of staggering wins, and are well on the way to holding a comfortable majority next year. And Democratic wins weren’t limited to the top of the tickets, with party operatives calling the night a “once-in-a-generation gain for Democrats in statehouses.”

“This is so bad, it’s almost comical,” said a top Republican operative. “Richard f------ Hudson lost his seat,” referring to the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee whose race had yet to be called but was tilting toward Democrats.

For Republicans, the night raised existential questions. The electorate that helped elect Trump two years ago flatly rejected his party, delivering a scathing indictment of unified Republican control of Washington. Latino, non-college-educated White and rural voters — three voting blocs that Trump performed well with two years ago — shifted toward Democrats, as did essentially every other voting group. So far, the vote has shifted by at least 15 points toward Democrats compared to the 2024 presidential election, according to a Post tally as of 2 a.m.

“Pride cometh before the fall,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina), whom Trump rejected for Senate in South Carolina in favor of Darline Graham, who lost on Tuesday night. “He is missing it all over the country, to be honest with you.”

Here are takeaways from the night for Democrats:

A truly historic night for Democrats 


Democrats, oft prone to worrying, went into Election Day hoping it would be a good night for them.

But as results trickled in, even they were stunned by the scope of their wins and struggled to process their success.

Staffers at the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm popped bottles of champagne as it became clear they would control the chamber. House Democrats’ campaign headquarters held a champagne toast, with plastic flutes, once it became clear the legislative chamber would flip. And plenty of booze flowed in Republican war rooms nationwide, admittedly for different reasons.

Democratic control of both chambers of Congress gives the party broad power to investigate Trump and force him to veto the bills they send to his desk, a tension that is likely to play out once Democrats officially take control of the chambers next year.

“LAWYER UP,” Rep. Robert Garcia, the Democrat likely to lead his party’s oversight of the White House, wrote on social media.

Democrats are likely to push a sweeping legislative agenda focused on ending the Iran war, raising the minimum wage and reversing some of the cuts to the social safety net. Trump is likely to veto many of Democrats’ legislative priorities, but some Democrats said Tuesday night that they were hopeful they could work with the president.

“You never know with him. He is often unpredictable,” Sen. Mark Kelly (Arizona) told The Washington Post. “What does he want the last two years of his presidency to be like?”

It was way, way worse than Republicans anticipated 


Republican anticipation heading into Election Day was the inverse of Democrats: They knew it was going to be a tough night, but they hoped they had done enough to stem widespread losses.

They had not.

As results trickled in from early states like Kentucky, Indiana and Florida, it quickly became clear the bad night would go from horrible to historic.

It’s “so much worse than anyone thought,” said a national Republican operative watching the results come in.

House Speaker Mike Johnson won his bid for reelection but will soon lose his title.

“I just want to tell you what we faced: some real odds here,” Johnson said, vowing to take back the House in 2028. “Okay, from the first day of this election, we knew that to keep the House and sustain our majority, we would have to defy more than a century of midterm history.”

Democrats’ economic focus worked 


Democrats took major losses on the economy in 2024, with voters rejecting four years of Joe Biden’s leadership and validating Trump’s attacks on his failure to bring prices down.

Two years later, the same issue did Republicans in.

Democrats spent two years with a near-total focus on the economy, regularly pledging to make bringing prices down their entire focus if they were handed power. They often did it in creative ways, focusing on the impact corruption had on prices, the way the Iran war was hiking home heating oil costs and how the downturn of the farm economy was impacting rural America.

“Make Stuff Cost Less” was Roy Cooper’s successful slogan in North Carolina’s Senate race.

“2024 was an awakening for a lot of Democrats to say, Oh s---, we should be talking about the economy,” Arizona Democrat JoAnna Mendoza told The Washington Post ahead of Election Day. She is currently leading her race to oust a Republican incumbent.

In House battleground districts, exit polls show Democrats won 54 percent of voters who said the economy was among the most important issues, compared to 43 percent for Republicans. It was even more dramatic on the Iran war, which many voters blamed for the high prices. Democrats won 65 percent of voters who said it was among their top three issues, compared to 33 percent for Republicans.

“Our whole goal from day one, two years ago, was that we needed to shift the narrative on the economy,” said Mike Smith, the head of House Majority PAC, the top Democratic super PAC focused on taking control of the U.S. House, in the days leading up to Election Day. “We needed voters to go into Election Day, when asked who they think prioritizes their economic concerns, for them to say, ‘Democrats.’”

On election night, it was clear Democrats had done that.

Redistricting did not save Republicans 


Republican redistricting efforts didn’t work out quite as they expected, with several new districts drawn to favor the GOP instead swinging back to Democrats.

In Florida, three Democrats won seats that the Republican legislature had tried to secure for the GOP. Rep. Kathy Castor won her 11th term, Rep. Jared Moskowitz won a third term and Pia Dandiya won her first term in an open seat.

In Alabama, Rep. Shomari Figures won reelection despite a new map that was designed to send him home in favor of Republican opponent state Rep. Rhett Marques. North Carolina Democratic Rep. Don Davis was also on track to win his seat back despite new red-leaning boundaries.

Trump had pushed Republican lawmakers around the country to give him new seats to help the GOP retain control of the House, setting off an arms race with Democrats to engineer an electoral advantage. Democrats in Virginia tried to respond, but the state’s Supreme Court blocked them when it nullified a voter-backed measure. But it didn’t matter: Voters in the state flipped two seats for Democrats and were close to flipping a third.

Beyond the individual district races, the broad effort to change rules in the middle of the game, and the perception that Republicans were specifically looking to disenfranchise Black voters, inspired huge turnout in many states, especially in the South. Historic turnout among Black voters was credited with helping Democrat Annie Andrews post a major upset in the South Carolina Senate race and made other contests around the region more competitive than expected.

Trump’s electorate fell apart 


In 2024, Trump dominated Democratic presidential rival Kamala Harris among voters in rural areas and counties with the most White residents without college degrees.

In 2026, those same regions of the country were not immune to the blue wave. On the contrary, voters in small cities and rural areas swung over 15 points left compared to 2024 — a figure close to the national average. The same held for voters in areas with the most White, non-college-educated residents.

In some states, including Ohio, these voters swung even more toward Democrats than their peers.

Latino voters also moved aggressively back toward Democrats.

In 2024, Latino voters in states including Texas and Florida, swung hard toward Trump. When Republicans redrew House maps to advantage themselves, they assumed those voters would stay loyal Republicans in 2026.

That couldn’t have been further from what happened. Nationally, in counties where most voting-age citizens are Latino, voters shifted about 25 points toward Democratic Senate candidates.

In the Rio Grande Valley, some shifts dwarfed even those figures. Starr County, deep in South Texas, shifted 72 points to the left to back Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico by over 50 points, helping drive him to his historic victory in the state.

Trump’s handpicked candidates helped hand Democrats victory … 


Trump had a vision for a new, even more loyal Senate next year.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), an occasional critic, was pushed out by Trump and replaced on the ballot by Texas’s Attorney General Ken Paxton. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina), who had needled Trump’s appointees and policies, was hounded into retirement, with Trump teeing up former RNC chairman Michael Whatley as the state’s next nominee.

And when GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham died, Trump wasn’t interested in South Carolina Reps. Russell Fry or Ralph Norman taking the seat. He liked Darline Graham, Lindsey’s sister and a political novice, for the job instead.

All three Republicans — Paxton, Whatley and Graham — lost, helping hand the Senate back to Democratic control.

Trump still publicly portrayed himself as a kingmaker. “My endorsement elected a lot of people,” Trump told Politico in a phone call last night, ignoring his obvious losses.

… and his barnstorming did not help 


Trump mounted an aggressive campaign blitz in the closing weeks of the midterms, traveling to 20 states and holding 30 events over 32 days, according to the White House. At rally after rally, he urged Republican voters to treat the elections as though his own name were on the ballot, hoping to transfer his personal political appeal to candidates across the country.

“What I’m asking you to do is pretend that I’m on the ballot. You got to get out and you got to vote,” Trump told supporters in Georgia.

But the president’s interventions did little to stem a Democratic wave that swept across the country Tuesday. Democrats flipped Republican-held seats in North and South Carolina, while Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff won reelection in Georgia despite Trump’s efforts to defeat him.

The results underscored the limits of Trump’s political influence, suggesting that his ability to mobilize loyal supporters was not enough to overcome widespread dissatisfaction with his presidency and his handling of the economy. For a president who has maintained an extraordinary grip on the Republican Party, the setbacks raised fresh questions about his ability to command its loyalty and shape its direction as he enters the final two years of his presidency.

Voters backed a series of historic firsts 


The Democratic wave helped propel a number of historic firsts nationwide.

Multiple Black governors will serve simultaneously, including the first Black woman governor in the nation’s history. Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Democrat to win Georgia’s governor’s race in nearly 30 years, while Republican Rep. Byron Donalds won Florida’s gubernatorial race, Democrat David Crowley won in Wisconsin and Democrat Wes Moore won reelection in Maryland.

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-New Hampshire) will become the first openly gay man to serve in the U.S. Senate.

Deb Haaland, former interior secretary under Joe Biden, will become the first Native American woman to govern a U.S. state, New Mexico. Meanwhile, in Colorado, Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old Ethiopian immigrant and lawyer, became the first Gen Z woman elected to Congress after winning the state’s Denver-area district.


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Nerm_L
Professor Expert
1  seeder  Nerm_L    5 days ago

The TEA Party influences within the Republican Party appropriated and destroyed MAGA.  So, Trump trying to rally MAGA only highlighted the TEA Party influence. The TEA Party has never been a popular movement with broad grassroots support.  And donning MAGA respectability couldn't disguise the asinine proclivities of the TEA Party greed merchants.

Despite mouth-breathing, low IQ Democrats overwrought sky-screaming attempts to Karen their way into power, the voting public has not endorsed the Democratic Party.  Now that they've returned to power it won't be long before Democrats begin bickering over the spoils.  There's no leadership within the Democratic Party any longer to build party unity.  So, we can expect a lot more sky-screaming and pandering.  There will be very little governing, just as we've seen with the TEA Party influenced Republicans.  Democrats will have to be turned out in 2 or 4 years so this, too, will pass. 

 
 
 
Hallux
Professor Principal
1.1  Hallux  replied to  Nerm_L @1    5 days ago
it won't be long before Democrats begin bickering over the spoils.

More than enough have been elected to avoid that perilous road. You are sounding like scores of Canadian MAGA Lite commenters over at the National Post who have bulk lost their IQs.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
1.1.1  seeder  Nerm_L  replied to  Hallux @1.1    5 days ago
More than enough have been elected to avoid that perilous road. You are sounding like scores of Canadian MAGA Lite commenters over at the National Post who have bulk lost their IQs.

I stated before Trump's last inauguration that the TEA Party would kill MAGA.  The TEA Party appropriated MAGA to obtain some sort of respectability.  Stephen Miller is TEA Party, not MAGA.  So far, Trump's second term has been driven by TEA Party priorities rather than MAGA priorities.  All the 'culture war' bullshit are TEA Party priorities held over from the Obama administration.

 
 
 
SteevieGee
Professor Silent
1.2  SteevieGee  replied to  Nerm_L @1    5 days ago

Here in the California wine country we all know that if you leave the grapes on the vine just a little bit longer they won't be so sour.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
1.2.1  seeder  Nerm_L  replied to  SteevieGee @1.2    5 days ago
Here in the California wine country we all know that if you leave the grapes on the vine just a little bit longer they won't be so sour.

Yet fermenting too long produces vinegar.  That's what Democrats need to be worried about.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Participates
1.3  Split Personality  replied to  Nerm_L @1    5 days ago

Bitter, much?

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
1.3.1  seeder  Nerm_L  replied to  Split Personality @1.3    5 days ago
Bitter, much?

Not at all.  I'm disappointed that Jake Johnson is only leading Brad Finstad by 323 votes (that's 0.1%).  And Klobuchar is now Governor instead of Senator which is a big win for Minnesota.

I'm certainly not upset that Donald Trump's Big Government and Deep State have been repudiated.  I'm certainly not upset that the billionaire elite are getting push back.  So, far Trump's 2 term in office has NOT been MAGA.

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Professor Participates
1.4  Right Down the Center  replied to  Nerm_L @1    5 days ago

I hope  you are wrong but the past results would show you as being right.  One side wins and they claim a mandate to forward their terrible ides and a couple years later they are smacked into realiity.

You would think someone would eventually learn.

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
2  Dismayed Patriot    5 days ago
The election was NOT an endorsement for Democrats.

I think what you're saying is it was NOT an endorsement for the Democrat party that had gotten too fixated on inclusion and diversity. I believe it IS an endorsement for the Democrats who are pushing centrist ideas, wanting to get money out of politics, pushing back against the billionaires and trillionaire who think they can just buy elections, and pushed back against stupid tariffs and a moronic unnecessary war in the middle east.

The election was a repudiation of Donald Trump and not much more can be taken away from the results.

I think those who take that repudiation lightly are in for a wakeup call. As the investigations begin and the criminal acts of this administration are exposed the repudiation is only going to get stronger.

While I agree, Democrats should not get too far ahead of themselves and they need to take this win slowly, methodically and seriously and they need to be transparent as they hold the administration accountable. If they can do that, this movement will have some staying power. If not, then I agree, it will just flip flop again in 2 or 4 years.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
2.1  seeder  Nerm_L  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @2    5 days ago
I think what you're saying is it was NOT an endorsement for the Democrat party that had gotten too fixated on inclusion and diversity. I believe it IS an endorsement for the Democrats who are pushing centrist ideas, wanting to get money out of politics, pushing back against the billionaires and trillionaire who think they can just buy elections, and pushed back against stupid tariffs and a moronic unnecessary war in the middle east.

I agree that Democrats did not run as a party.  But I disagree that the Democratic candidates were mostly centrist.  The overarching campaign strategy adopted by Democratic candidates was a referendum on Trump.  Trump endorsements and rallies did not help Republicans and may have actually hurt Republicans.  

I think those who take that repudiation lightly are in for a wakeup call. As the investigations begin and the criminal acts of this administration are exposed the repudiation is only going to get stronger.

Obviously the repudiation was influential across the political spectrum within both parties.  The election was obviously a referendum on Trump and not a policy election.  If Democrats try to spin the election result as some sort of mandate then there could be a harsher reaction from the electorate than we've seen in the past.  

While I agree, Democrats should not get too far ahead of themselves and they need to take this win slowly, methodically and seriously and they need to be transparent as they hold the administration accountable. If they can do that, this movement will have some staying power. If not, then I agree, it will just flip flop again in 2 or 4 years.

IMO the voters expect Democrats to stop Trump.  If Democrats fail to do that, then they'll lose a lot of credibility.  The Democratic faithful may want to punish Trump but I don't believe that is going to have broad appeal for future elections.

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
2.1.1  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  Nerm_L @2.1    5 days ago
The overarching campaign strategy adopted by Democratic candidates was a referendum on Trump.

While that was the foot in the door, I think they would not have won by such margins if they hadn't let people know they weren't there to turn people trans or to push the wild crazy nonsense Republicans have been falsely accusing the left of. That to me is a 'centrist' message and their push for inclusion was for including conservatives, not inclusion for minorities, though let's face it, many conservatives imagine themselves a minority these days.

IMO the voters expect Democrats to stop Trump.

I think they at the bare minimum want to feel like there is a check on the executive instead of the out-of-control governance they've been witnessing. The American people would rather have a politician make less promises and actually keep the few core promises they made on the campaign trail. After all of Trumps promises, and America basically handing him all three branches of power for 2 years, even the Trump supporters feel lied to and ignored as they continue to ask when inflation is coming down, when will gas prices go down, when will grocery prices go down, or at least when will our pay checks get larger to afford the increase in prices. None of that happened after they handed Trump the keys to the kingdom. They were warned, but they didn't listen and now the entire nation has Trump shit on our face and it's going to take strong Democrats who don't get distracted to rebuild Americas reputation and economy while reducing the deficit and making life in general more affordable for Aemricans.

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Professor Participates
2.2  Right Down the Center  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @2    5 days ago
I believe it IS an endorsement for the Democrats who are pushing centrist ideas

I hope your right, but I am skeptical

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3  JohnRussell    5 days ago
For Republicans, the night raised existential questions. The electorate that helped elect Trump two years ago flatly rejected his party, delivering a scathing indictment of unified Republican control of Washington. Latino, non-college-educated White and rural voters — three voting blocs that Trump performed well with two years ago — shifted toward Democrats, as did essentially every other voting group. So far, the vote has shifted by at least 15 points toward Democrats compared to the 2024 presidential election, according to a Post tally as of 2 a.m.

In the battle ground Senate elections the edge for the Democrats was generally in the 5-7 pt range. In 2024 Trump won 49%. Last night we had Democrats getting 53-54%.  What that means is that in those states roughly 10% of the people who voted for Trump had buyers remorse.  While that was the winning margin , it also means 90% of Trump voters havent changed at all. 

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
3.1  seeder  Nerm_L  replied to  JohnRussell @3    5 days ago
In the battle ground Senate elections the edge for the Democrats was generally in the 5-7 pt range. In 2024 Trump won 49%. Last night we had Democrats getting 53-54%.  What that means is that in those states roughly 10% of the people who voted for Trump had buyers remorse.  While that was the winning margin , it also means 90% of Trump voters havent changed at all. 

Those conclusions depend a lot on voter turnout.  I have not seen any estimates of turnout yet.  NBC has published some exit poll results but I haven't delved into those yet.    

One take away from the NBC data is that ~46% of Republican voters that turned out do not consider themselves MAGA.  But, again, I have no idea what the turnout numbers are.  Claiming that "90% of Trump voters haven't changed at all" is disingenuous simply because percentages of an unknown number of voters can't support the claim.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
4  JBB    5 days ago

Contrary to dire wrongheaded prognosticators the stock market boomed today. Up about 3%. Trillions of new wealth created by happy election news!

original

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
4.1  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  JBB @4    5 days ago

Clearly that duck just needs a few more minutes in the smoker. The skin is almost there...

BBQpekingduck5-720x720.jpg

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Professor Participates
4.2  Right Down the Center  replied to  JBB @4    4 days ago

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TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.2.1  TᵢG  replied to  Right Down the Center @4.2    4 days ago

More partisan crap.   This implies that the Ds -as a whole- routinely engage in violence when they lose elections.   Just more disinformation for slimy partisan purposes.

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
4.2.2  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  TᵢG @4.2.1    4 days ago
Just more disinformation for slimy partisan purposes.

And you were expecting?

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
5  TᵢG    4 days ago

This was a rebuke of Trump and the irresponsible GoPTRUMP.   Especially Congress.

The Ds should never think that this reflects approval of their policies.    This is a good chance for them to change that perception.   I can only hope they do not fuck this up.

 
 

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