The U.S. Economy Is Roaring Back
By: Harrison Dunn
The Trump economy was in an American boom time prior to the China 🇨🇳 plague arriving here. Now since we emerged from the 45 day shutdown to curb the spread of it we’ve been growing much faster and at a higher rate than anyone thought possible. People were talking a decade long depression. Instead it’s simply a two Quarter recession, the shortest time frame a recession can be, back to back quarters of GDP decline. The growth would be even stronger if more blue states opened their economies rather than startling shut to bend the curve of economic growth to try to hurt the a President. It’s no surprise that average unemployment in red states is under 6% while in blue ones it’s almost 10% and higher than that in their biggest states. Based on our economy, our security and defense, and judiciary, President Trump deserves to be re elected.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Source: AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
Breaking news: The US economy is roaring! Over the last few months, we have witnessed the sharpest economic snapback in US history. While many are still out of work, the future looks increasingly promising for those seeking employment. One would think that we were still mired in the deepest throes of April’s COVID-19 crisis if you take heed of the media’s narrative in recent weeks. It is clear the Democrats and Joe Biden are making the pandemic their closing argument for the 2020 election. But why? The economy is a losing argument for the Left.
As of early this October, a majority of voters believe that Trump is best equipped to handle the economy. If the Gallup poll showing 56% of voters believing that they are better off today than they were four years ago is accurate, the Biden campaign is in big trouble. With the political circus dictating the daily narrative, it’s easy to lose track of just how much progress has been made on the economic revival since 2016, and more specifically, since this past spring’s pandemic-induced lows. When assessing the strength of the economy, it’s very useful to look at some of the raw data that gives insight into the global supply and demand dynamic.
The commodity market is a clear window into the cost of goods and the level of demand that exists. As the Coronavirus shut down economies all over the world, global goods demand collapsed. Most notably was the oil market, as energy fuels the economy as a whole. Supply was steady, but a massive collapse in activity that forms demand left producers with a supply glut. The supply/demand gap was so large that oil futures (commodities trade primarily in the futures market) actually went negative, a historic event.
Just 7 months later the market has not only stabilized, but also has rebounded significantly. Oil, itself, is up over 100% from levels seen this Spring. This is a sound indicator of the resumption of robust economic activity. We are now escaping from economic contraction and are closing in on expansion. As consumers travel more and demand comes back for finished goods, the oil market will continue to flourish. This is one of many reasons why the Third Quarter GDP measure, to be released at the end of October only days before the election, will show the most significant rise in US history. The commodities market isn’t limited to oil. There are other very useful economic gauges within the basic goods market.
One of the most important, in terms of assessing global activity, is copper. Copper is a basic material used throughout manufacturing. The copper market collapsed this Spring along with all other raw goods during the crisis. At its low, copper was trading down roughly 35%. As activity has roared back to life, copper has been on an absolute tear. As of this writing, copper is up over 50% above its COVID lows, and is, in fact, higher than the market was trading pre-COVID. That’s a very promising signal emanating from the commodity market.
Here in the United States, we have many indicators painting a picture of a resurgent economy that may already be in a boom despite a high unemployment rate. We have very good cause to remain optimistic. Most recently, the PMI services index, a measure of economic activity in the services sector(and ~70% of the US economy), registered at ~56. A PMI reading 50 represents flat activity, while any figure above 50 indicates growth. 56 is a reassuring figure and represents a substantial increase in the level of activity in a significant portion of our economy.
If there is one metric that reigns supreme over all other data points, it’s the level of employment. On this front, we have seen a surprising rate of recovery. Many suggested this past spring we wouldn’t see a recovery in employment for years and years. Some even suggested we were at the beginning of a decade-long depression. This couldn’t be further from the truth. At the nadir of the Coronavirus recession, the unemployment rate in the United States was a staggering 14.7%. The Payroll Protection Plan (PPP) undoubtedly saved the US labor market from total collapse. Now, unemployment has contracted to 7.9%. This is a remarkable rebound, considering the shape we were in just 6 months ago. This growth is the highest on record for the United States.
Across metrics and hard data, it’s clear the economy is surging its way back to prosperity. It was during Obama’s administration that our leaders suggested we were in a “new normal” in which unemployment was steady at 5% and that we would see sub-3% growth indefinitely. The Trump economy blew that assumption up, capped with the most prosperous year on record in 2019. It is on the strength of that growth that we have been able to power our way through a total economic shutdown.
Despite this gratifying recovery, it remains fragile. A Biden-Harris administration would usher in regulatory and tax policies that would cripple the economy‘s growth and send us backward in ways we can’t imagine. Having come so far in the face of a devastating pandemic, it would be tragic to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Should such a political reversal of fortune transpire, those dire predictions of a long depression just may come true.
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Pretty sure that Trump wants everybody to believe that lie.
Anything positive happening in America---or anywhere else---is happening in spite of Trump.
The Kool-Aid is strong tonight!
It's apparent that I never studied Political Economy, but it does surprise me that a microscopic bug can demolish the economy of the world's number one economy, the most powerful nation in the world. I wonder what a REAL threat would do. What I don't understand is that if the American economy is booming, why has the value of the US dollar been steadily declining over the past few months?
The Fed rate is 0-.25%, U.S. federal annual expenditures are on track for over $6 trillion this year - meaning federal spending accounts for close to a third of GDP - which hasn't happened since WWII. Unemployment is still at about 8%.
Because Trump failed to address deficit spending in the good times, instead cutting taxes while increasing spending, long term debt to GDP is in a spiral toward Greek levels.
In short, the U.S. economy looks about like Trump's casino empire circa 1990.
Trump and his sycophant's want to blame any failures in response and the crashed economy on the Democrat Governors but then as soon as those Governors get their economies running again, in spite of the lack of response from the Federal government, Trump and the sycophants demand they should get credit for the comeback.
Well he's getting the blame so..............................
As he should be. Due his slow response and refusal to tell the American people the truth the death toll is far higher and the financial crisis was far steeper. Governors had to manage without him and they are continuing to do so now as he refuses to negotiate with Congress that passed a $2.1 trillion funding bill that would have helped Americans recover but it's been shot down by Republicans and the President. His little signing statements are just pomp masking his inaction and ineptitude.
If somebody starts a fire and it gets out of control, the blame goes to the starter not the fire chief who does not have all the stuff to put it out
WHERE it started doesn't matter - it could have started on the moon, but there are fire chiefs around the world who were capable of containing the fire. It's unfortunate that your favourite fire chief was incapable, and in fact ALLOWED it to get out of control with the flimsy excuse that he didn't want to panic people, so not only incapable, but NEGLIGENT, leading to a massive world-leading 215,000 deaths, so in my opinion guilty of negligent HOMICIDE.
Where it started is the main thing. That is who I blame for making me sick, that where the negligence started and I got it from people who just returned from that place In late December. They keep it secret back then and Doctors did know what I had.or to tell me to stay home, but I did because I felt too bad to go out.
I lived through it and I know who I hold responsible
So if it started in the White House, you would have blamed Trump for it if you caught it because he ignored it and let it flourish before he did anything about it. Okay, I understand your form of logic.
It did not start in the White House
Of course it didn't. My statement was abviously hypothetical.