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Open Message Board N° 3

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Category: Other

By: bob-nelson • 6 years ago • 83 comments

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Professor Guide

1 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

Brad Delong has a couple of fascinating extracts on his blog; " We Know Little About the Origins of High Patriarchy and the Extinction of Most Y-Chromosome Lineages ca. 5000 Years Ago, But... ".

The human trick is ganging up on problems, and there has obviously been heavy social selection for forms which create legitimacy for mass violence by elevating men as a category. This is not so much the invention of the idea of kings (there are a lot of ideas of kings) as the invention of the social notion of a father-of-all, extending the senior man in the clan to the senior man of a not-necessarily-related group.

What it's done economically is redefine women as slaves; you might (e.g., "white women") have a "may legitimately get an heir upon" and a "may not get an heir upon" category split, or you might not. This is of enormous economic value (e.g., childcare is still something no one will pay appropriately for if you consider the degree of skill and responsibility, not even as much as nursing gets (under) paid). This is where the whole concept of chattel slavery comes from; the idea that you could treat some male captives as though they were women comes later and is modeled on the status of women.

Sophomore Quiet

2 lennylynx 6 years ago

I'm fucking pissed off that Croatia beat England. anger

I feel better now, these message boards are awesome! Happy

Professor Guide

2.1 author Bob Nelson replied to lennylynx @2 6 years ago

Can you guess who I'm rooting for in the Final? Winking 2

Masters Quiet

2.1.1 PJ replied to Bob Nelson @2.1 6 years ago

Vive la France of course

Professor Principal

2.1.2 Kavika replied to PJ @2.1.1 6 years ago

Volim zivjeti Hrvatsku.

(Long Live Croatia)

Professor Guide

2.1.3 author Bob Nelson replied to Kavika @2.1.2 6 years ago

I'm impressed! Giggle

Professor Guide

3 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

Speaking of soccer... An AFP photographer got caught in the middle of the Croatians' victory scrum:

Professor Guide

4 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

From Reuters :

Trump warned NATO allies U.S. would go it alone if they did not spend

U.S. President Donald Trump told NATO allies in a closed-door meeting on Thursday that governments needed to raise spending to 2 percent of economic output by January next year or the United States would go its own way, two people familiar with the discussions told Reuters.

U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he holds a news conference after participating in the NATO Summit in Brussels, Belgium July 12, 2018.
REUTERS/Yves Herman

The ultimatum was delivered in a session at the NATO summit, the sources said. “He said they must raise spending by January 2019 or the United States would go it alone,” one person said.

However, he did not directly threaten to withdraw formally from NATO, the people said.

Professor Guide

4.1 author Bob Nelson replied to Bob Nelson @4 6 years ago

So... he won't leave NATO... but he'll go it alone.

Ummm........... crazy

Professor Guide

4.2 author Bob Nelson replied to Bob Nelson @4 6 years ago

I previously posted military spending by country.

Junior Quiet

5 dave-2693993 6 years ago

Crazy old men driving in parking lots:

Professor Guide

5.1 author Bob Nelson replied to dave-2693993 @5 6 years ago

Oh my Gawd!

Junior Quiet

5.1.1 dave-2693993 replied to Bob Nelson @5.1 6 years ago

Glad you liked it.

Catch Leono Chin a couple posts down.

Professor Participates

5.2 Raven Wing replied to dave-2693993 @5 6 years ago

Clapping thumbs up

Professor Guide

6 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

Dean Baker puts things in perspective...

Trump Calls It "Really Amazing" That NATO Partners Are Increasing Military Spending by 0.17 Percent of GDP

In case you were wondering how large that $33 billion increase in military spending that the other NATO countries agreed to was, it comes to roughly 0.16 of their collective GDP. Apparently Donald Trump was impressed with this commitment since he called it "really amazing."

To get up to the level of France, Germany would have to kick in about two-thirds of those $33 billion... which their armed forces already desperately need just to stay combat-ready.

Junior Quiet

7 dave-2693993 6 years ago

Driving lessons:

Professor Guide

7.1 author Bob Nelson replied to dave-2693993 @7 6 years ago

I think there may be a theme to your clips.... Giggle

Junior Quiet

7.1.1 dave-2693993 replied to Bob Nelson @7.1 6 years ago

When I am in the mood.

Professor Guide

8 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

There are some cool photos of Pluto and Charon on Gizmodo :

Professor Principal

8.1 Trout Giggles replied to Bob Nelson @8 6 years ago

those craters are interesting

Professor Guide

8.1.1 author Bob Nelson replied to Trout Giggles @8.1 6 years ago

Yes. And the difference in between the rough surface on the left and the smooth on the right.

Professor Principal

8.1.2 Trout Giggles replied to Bob Nelson @8.1.1 6 years ago

Makes one wonder about the evolution of this planet

Professor Guide

8.1.4 author Bob Nelson replied to Trout Giggles @8.1.2 6 years ago

Makes one wonder about the evolution of this planet

Yes.

Professor Guide

8.1.5 author Bob Nelson replied to Kathleen @8.1.3 6 years ago

They called him that.

That's cruel and nasty!

...... and funny...

Professor Principal

8.1.7 Trout Giggles replied to Kathleen @8.1.6 6 years ago

I got called Pancakes because I was so flat chested

Professor Principal

8.1.10 Trout Giggles replied to Kathleen @8.1.8 6 years ago

It's fine because it's funny now. I haven't been called Pancakes in a very, very long time.

Professor Quiet

8.1.11 Freefaller replied to Kathleen @8.1.6 6 years ago

Lol mine was Duck cause some kids apparently though I ran funny. Funny thing is while I wasn't Olympic calibre or anything close, in a distance race I could run all of them into the dirt.

Professor Quiet

8.1.13 Freefaller replied to Kathleen @8.1.12 6 years ago

Lol Kathleen I wouldn't say I was fast, endurance was my forte. Good for your sister sticking up for herself, reminds me of my brother little flyweight of a guy in high school and at first glance an easy target for bullies, that is until he swarmed all over you like a demented rabid weasel on PCP.

Professor Principal

8.1.15 Trout Giggles replied to Freefaller @8.1.13 6 years ago

demented rabid weasel on PCP.

When you're small that's how you have to fight.

Professor Quiet

8.1.16 Freefaller replied to Kathleen @8.1.14 6 years ago

I like the terms you used for him

He's my brother so I'm allowed and it's accurate.

Professor Participates

8.1.17 Paula Bartholomew replied to Kathleen @8.1.3 6 years ago

Crater Face was also the nickname for the Balmuto character in Grease/Grease 2.

Professor Guide

8.1.19 author Bob Nelson replied to 6 years ago

That's terrible... ... and funny...

Professor Silent

8.1.21 charger 383 replied to Kathleen @8.1.20 6 years ago

My cousin got burned in 7th grade, he got a few unkind comments but had a full beard in 10th grade

Professor Guide

8.1.22 Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom replied to Trout Giggles @8.1.7 6 years ago

I got called Pancakes because I was so flat chested

Out of all the crappy/cruel nicknames in the world, Pancakes just might be the cutest one ever.

Professor Principal

8.1.23 Trout Giggles replied to Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom @8.1.22 6 years ago

One of my best friends in hs wrote in my senior year book:

"Dear Pancakes (haven't heard that one in a while)"

They stopped calling me that by 9th grade

Professor Guide

8.1.24 author Bob Nelson replied to Trout Giggles @8.1.23 6 years ago

What happened in 9th grade? Giggle

Professor Principal

8.1.25 Trout Giggles replied to Bob Nelson @8.1.24 6 years ago

hat happened in 9th grade?

I grew a little bigger

Professor Guide

8.1.26 author Bob Nelson replied to Trout Giggles @8.1.25 6 years ago

Giggle

Professor Participates

8.2 Raven Wing replied to Bob Nelson @8 6 years ago

Looks like some of the chocolate cakes my Sis-In-Law used to bake. She had never cooked anything before she got married. In order to save his marriage, and his stomach, my Brother begged me to teach her how to cook. It was a very loooonnnnggg course. Face Palm Too Much Info

Professor Guide

8.2.1 author Bob Nelson replied to Raven Wing @8.2 6 years ago

Probably not edible... Giggle

Professor Participates

8.2.2 Raven Wing replied to Bob Nelson @8.2.1 6 years ago

It was indeed a good while before her food was edible. As she had never cooked, or even watched anyone cook in her life, she had no sense of smell or taste, other than the finished product. Her taste buds were never exposed to raw seasonings, or uncooked food. So educating her taste buds was the first course of the day. After that came the course of which seasonings go with what kind of foods. That's where my own taste buds were sorely tried. Too Much Info

Professor Guide

8.2.3 author Bob Nelson replied to Raven Wing @8.2.2 6 years ago

Probably not edible...

I was talking about Pluto and Charon.

I'm sure your sister-in-law's cake is out of this world! (ha-ha-ha)

Professor Guide

9 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

We are so accustomed to hearing "GDP" used as a synonym for "the economy" that we don't often stop to recall that it's just a measurement of "churn" - buying and selling. It carries no notion of the "utility" of that buying and selling.

Dean Baker reminds us :

The Washington Post had an interesting piece on how people with chronic conditions, such as high blood pressure, can now have key measures monitored remotely on an ongoing basis through a new program. This will allow for health care professionals to quickly detect problems and recommend steps to counteract them or to see a physician for care, if needed. As the piece points out, this is likely to lead to both better health outcomes and lower costs, as many patients may take steps to alleviate problems before they become life-threatening issues and need emergency care.

While this program as described in the piece sounds like a substantial improvement in health care, it is interesting how it would appear in our national income accounts and measures of health care inflation. If better monitoring of blood pressure and other risk factors leads to fewer strokes and heart attacks, and therefore fewer people coming in for treating emergencies, it will mean that less health care is being provided in our GDP accounts.

The savings also would not appear as reduction in health care costs in measures like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI measures the increase in the price of specific goods and services. If we need fewer services because we have found ways, such as better monitoring, to improve people's health, it is not picked up in the index.

This method of accounting is why some of us have advocated pulling health care spending out of GDP measures, instead looking at what we spend net of health expenditures and then using various measures of health status to determine the extent to which we are making progress. After all, we care about how long and how well people live, not how many bypass surgeries they receive.

Professor Guide

10 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

Professor Guide

11 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

Autonomous race car at the Goodwood Hill Climb:

Professor Guide

12 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

Brad DeLong is feeling testy. He has a new business card, and he ain't takin' nonsense from nobody :

I, on Behalf of the Economists Thinking Correct Economic Thought, Plead Not Guilty

We—at least my fraction of economists—plead “not guilty” to the indictment:

The Minsky tradition had the financial sector nailed: that the circumstances that produce bubbles also produce regulatory forbearance. Ned Gramlich and others were sounding the alarm on the risks created by the housing sector. I have an email exchange with Stan Fischer when he was in the Citbank President’s office in which I expressed my concern about how Citi could not possibly have control over its derivatives book, and that the transformation of investment banking away from its former partnership structure had destroyed their organizational ability to effectively manage risks.

Paul Krugman starting in the early 1990s was spearheading the analysis of how great the risks posed by the zero lower bound were, and how increasing financialization and return this to an area of potentially depression economics.

Third and last, economists had been tracking decreasing competition, increasing financialization, and rising income inequality in real time, and arguing about its sources in the eroding commitment to social democracy—particularly Goldin and Katz on the implications of the decreasing relative public commitment to education. I remember this being a huge deal back in 1992. The only ones surprised were the economists of the right, who had confidently expected high or inequality to unleash an orgy of entrepreneurial growth.

The problem, as Simon Wren-Lewis of Oxford likes to say, is not that the economists did not know what was going on in real time, but rather that they were not listened to. We think we broadly understand the disciplinary malformations and intellectual deformations that meant that smart economists had too little and stupid economists too much voice within academia.

What we do not understand is why smart economists had so little influence in the public sphere—with special reference to Barack Obama’s call for an anti-Keynesian anti-recovery spending freeze in the 2010 State of the Union address. After that I ripped both Peter Orszag and Tim Geithner new ones: But I never got a satisfactory explanation of why the president thought this was a good thing to do.

Professor Guide

12.1 author Bob Nelson replied to Bob Nelson @12 6 years ago

What we do not understand is why smart economists had so little influence in the public sphere

It's simple, Brad. Economics is not a topic that Joe Sixpack understands. So politicians can pretty much say whatever they like, and not get called for it except by those same economists whom no one understands.

Therefore, when economists bring worrisome news about bad events on the horizon, the politician is tempted to just wave them away....

Professor Guide

13 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

If you don't like Brad's new card, he's got a couple of alternatives :

Professor Guide

14 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

When was the last time all the computing power in the worl d equaled one iPhone?

It's a very interesting question, because there are so many differing kinds of computing capability in that one device. The parallel processing power of the GPU (slinging bits to the display) and the straight-ahead FLOPs of the ARM processor.

Let's try some back of the envelope calculations and comparisons.

The iPhone 5's A6 processor is a dual-core, triple-GPU device. The first multiprocessor computer was the Burroughs D825 (defense-only, of course - BRL64-0052.jpg ), with 1 to 4 processors, running at ~ .070 s / 1 1operation = ~14 FLOPS for divide, the slowest operation, 166 FLOPS for add, the fastest, and ~25 FLOPS for multiply. Let's assume adds are 10x more frequent than multiply and divide to come up with an average speed of 35 FLOPS per processor, so 70 FLOPS for a 2-processor D825, handwaving CPU synchronization, etc.

Let's take the worst number from the Geekbench stats via AnandTech for the iPhone's processor: 322 MFLOPS doing a dot product, an operations reasonably similar to the calculations being done at the time in 1962. Note that's MFLOPS. Millions. To meet the worst performance of the iPhone 5 chip with the most optimistic estimate of the Burroughs D825's performance, you'd need 4.6 million of them. I can state confidently that there were not that many Burroughs B362s available in 1962, so there's a hard lower bound. The top-end supercomputer at that point was probably the IBM 7090, at 0.1 MFLOPS. We'd still have needed 3200 of those. in 1960, there were in total about 6000 computers (per IBM statistics - 4000 of those were IBM machines), and very few in the 7090 range. Throwing in all other computers worldwide, let's say we double that number - we're still way behind the iPhone.

Let's move forward. The CDC 7600, in 1969, averaged 10 MFLOPS (with hand-compiled code, and could peak at 35 MFLOPS). Let's go with the 10 MFLOPS - to equal a single iPhone 5, you'd need 32 of them. Putting aside the once-a-day (and sometimes 4-5x a day) breakdowns, we're in the realm of possibility that the CDCs in existence alone at that time could equal or beat an iPhone 5, assuming they were actually running, so the likelihood is that all computing in the world probably easily equalled or surpassed an iPhone at that point in straight compute ability.

So without a lot of complicated research, we can narrow it down to somewhere in the seven-ish years between 1962 and 1969, closer to the end than the start. (As a note, the Cray-1 didn't make the scene till 1975, with a performance of 80 MFLOPS, a quarter of an iPhone; in 1982, the Cray X-MP hit 800 MFLOPS, or 2.5 iPhones.)

And we haven't talked about the GPUs, which are massively parallel processors the likes of which were uncommon until the 1980's (and even the top-end graphics machines of the time couldn't equal the performance of the iPhone's GPU with weeks to work on rendering). But on the basis of raw compute power, somewhere after the Beatles and before the moon landing. Making a finer estimate, I'd guess somewhere in late 1966, so let's call it somewhere around the last Gemini mission, or Doctor Who's first regeneration.

Edit: On rereading the question I see you wanted the numbers for an iPhone 4 instead of a 5. Given the amount of handwaving I'm doing anyway, I'd say we're still talking about close to the same period. Without actual numbers as to the computers in use at the time, which I don't think I can dig up without much more work than I'm willing to do for free, it's difficult to be any closer than a couple years plus or minus. Definitely before Laugh-In (1968), definitely after the miniskirt (1964).

Professor Guide

14.1 author Bob Nelson replied to Bob Nelson @14 6 years ago

My first laptop was a 16-shades-of-grey Toshiba with a 386SX-16 processor, around 1990. Displaying a CAD drawing took tens of seconds - I had to be careful to work in several "layers" to keep display times reasonable. Now, my phone - Samsung S8+ - is unflappable doing tasks far more complex.

I'm impatient for a phone that can (wirelessly) connect to screen/keyboard/mouse and double as my daily-driver computer.

Sophomore Participates

14.1.1 Skrekk replied to Bob Nelson @14.1 6 years ago

I've still got a 386 knocking around the office because it's the only thing which runs a particular DSP emulator we have.

My first Pentium 90 got used for FPGA design work and it would crank away all night even on fairly simple designs.

Junior Quiet

15 dave-2693993 6 years ago

7 x 13 = 28

Professor Guide

15.1 author Bob Nelson replied to dave-2693993 @15 6 years ago

Giggle

Sophomore Quiet

16 lennylynx 6 years ago

All my tickets have disappeared! I would like to thank whoever 'fixed' them for me, didn't pay a cent! Happy

Professor Guide

16.1 author Bob Nelson replied to lennylynx @16 6 years ago

Uh...

Do you really think it was someone who might read your "thank you", here on NT? Eye Roll

Sophomore Quiet

16.1.1 lennylynx replied to Bob Nelson @16.1 6 years ago

Umm, it was humor, Bob, you know, ha ha? Do you think I was serious about thinking I had to pay for the tickets? Do you even HAVE a sense of humor?

Professor Guide

16.1.2 author Bob Nelson replied to lennylynx @16.1.1 6 years ago

My Reply leaned into your post...

Professor Guide

17 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

Buzzfeed has an excellent long-form examination of the man behind the Presidential pardons of Oregon arsonists Steven and Dwight Hammond.

To achieve his goals, Lucas has used a nonprofit he founded, Protect the Harvest — devoted to “working to protect your right to hunt, fish, farm, eat meat, and own pets” — as well as his close ties to Vice President Mike Pence, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, whose top adviser is a former employee of Lucas’s. As Duquette puts it, “the access is very good.”

Professor Guide

18 author Bob Nelson 6 years ago

From Reuters :

British Prime Minister Theresa May said U.S. President Donald Trump had previously advised her to sue the European Union as part of her Brexit strategy, disclosing a piece of advice Trump said last week she had ignored.

“He told me I should sue the EU,” May told BBC television. “Sue the EU. Not go into negotiations - sue them.”

Professor Expert

20 Perrie Halpern R.A. 6 years ago

I removed the last thread for Meta. If you have any complaints about moderation, please take it to metafied or write me directly. MUVA I have now asked you at least half a dozen times to stop with your spam complaining and I even wrote you directly about it. I have tried to be patient, but I am at my end. I will follow through with a suspension if you don't stop with the spamming.

Professor Silent

21 charger 383 6 years ago

I find it very annoying when an article gets locked while I am trying to post something

Professor Guide

21.1 author Bob Nelson replied to charger 383 @21 6 years ago

I agree, but when a seed is getting a lot of traffic, the seeder is supposed to keep an eye on it... and when it's time for bed....

I've locked maybe a half-dozen times in all, and always in those same conditions.

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