Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings , what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average ) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.
If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
If the fourth scenario — a win against all the evidence — is Trump’s best hope for reelection, he’s the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, there’s evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.
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I know our next chance to heal America is still more than 400 days in the future but how about a little good news in these "dog day's of Summer".
The title picture of Trump on this article looks just like some very spoiled 3 y/o's pitching a tantrum because they can't have their way.
Reminds me of as picture I have seen of Mussolini with his arms crossed and his defiant, arrogant pout face on that looks just like the one Trump is wearing.
Yeah.....and this is the President of the US who is supposed to be older than 3 y/o. /s
What's sad is how many similar images of him there were to chose from.
It's kind of the default position for our current Commander and Chump.
Agree. Someone must have told him he could not make himself the Emperor of America when that photo was taken.
The numbers in this article aren't that surprising to me.
Trump and his polices were soundly rejected by the American voters and all he's done in office is prove the voters were correct in their assessments.
Trump loss the vote count but, thanks to the voter corrupting EC, he threw back 4 cards and then drew a royal flush to become President, much to the disgust of most Americans.
Of course the electoral map highlighted in the article is pretty much pie in the sky stuff, (I don't expect Texas to go back to Blue until 2024 or 2028 but I'm prepared to be pleasantly surprised), however, even if you give Trump the 69 votes from Texas, Georgia and North Carolina, where he's ahead in the "Morning Consult" polling, it would still be a pretty embarrassing repudiation.
Screw the projections....... Americans just need to get off their backsides and participate in government. That way we can be sure to friggen vote the aberration that is in the WH out of office. All 50 states and the DC have the obligation to return the US back to it's law abiding world leadership role.
From "Your Lips..." Flynavy1, from "Your Lips...".
Fine.
Give us a non-lunatic to vote for.
Stop acting like you are forced to vote for Trump. Every single one of the Democrats running for presidents is more honest and a better human being than Donald Trump, period. As far as any of them being too far left or socialist, the constraints of our political system would keep the actions of any of them, as president, in the mainstream.
Voting for Trump should not be an option for anyone who wants to see America return to morality and honesty from the president.
Stop acting like someone is forced to vote for Trump. It's ridiculous.
Make no mistake. I am not forced to do anything.
I'm sure you believe so. Personally, I don't care. My vote will go to the person I judge as least likely to fuck up our country in actual real life. Twitter does not count as real life.
Coming from you, that's ridiculous bullshit....especially given the hysteria you embrace related to everything Trump.
Grown ups understand that neither of those things are remotely likely no matter who is elected.
Stop guessing what I think. You're total rubbish at it. If you want me to vote against Trump, get off your ass and get me somebody better to vote for. Hint...that's not "anybody but Trump".
Tens of millions of us are not going to vote for somebody who wants to double our taxes so they can take away our health insurance. We're not going to vote for somebody who wants us to pay off student loans for Millennials after we already paid to put our own through college.
People who expect us to do that because "Trump says mean things on Twitter" need to look up from their phones for a minute and grow the fuck up.
....... I'm getting deja vu all over again ......
Hillary Clinton wins big !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes, we already know she won the election by 3 million votes. What's your point? This articles shows how much more unlikely it is that the electoral college will give the win to Trump in 2020.
Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes .....
It was all Bullshit about Hillary and a Definitive WIN !
One day, you'll understand how elections actually work. But apparently, not yet.
"This articles shows how much more unlikely it is that the electoral college will give the win to Trump in 2020."
And Trump couldn't bridge the "Blue" gap when he actually did either.
There hasnt been a good poll for Trump since he took office. His fans have no choice put to poo-poo these results.
The key to understanding this is not the fact that Trump won anyway in 2016 even though the national polls showed him narrowly losing, the key is the results of the 2018 midterms, where the Democrats got the most votes in modern midterms history. In the last election we have to go by, Trump was repudiated. The truth is that he has been such a profound and total embarrassment to the United States of America, a strong majority (something like 55%) say they will never vote for Trump in 2020 under any circumstances. He is well underwater in polls in states that he won in 2016. Why? Because the people have observed him in office since 2017.
I love when people think Hillary won.
That has GOT to be one of the stupidest things I have ever heard.
What did she win? Is she President?
Where do y'all GET this crap from?
Do you think you get to redefine what it takes to win the Presidency because your old gal lost?
@4.1.4
There wasn't a good poll for Trump before the last election, either.
Yet he still beat Abuela.
You keep putting all your little eggs in your little polling basket.
It worked so well before, right?
You say the same content free things every day. Dont you get tired?
I DO get tired of your little old I Hate Trump screed, John.
Do you understand the CONTENT of THAT?
Texan speaks the truth that progressive leftist liberals can't stand to hear!
I feel sorry for whoever has to undo the damage Trump has caused.
Those red lines should have read, water color red lines on the sand in a surf line....
Actually, unbelievably, (at least to me) some people really do want that. They want people to HAVE TO rely on the Fed more.
The Fed is largely a bloated, inefficient mess. They want more bloat, more inefficiency.
It's mind boggling really .......
Don't bogart that spleef you're smoking ..... pass it on over to me!
That must be some good shit .......
Yes, a failing economy is so much better than a growing one under Obama.
If Trump had done nothing the unemployment would be the same as it is. Are you counting soy farmers with your unemployed numbers?
Hahaha.
You feel we are better off losing the trade war to China? Or do you just like Trump raising taxes (tariffs) on American people?
Seriously? Trump gets a woody every time he is around a tyrant. Especial Kim and Putin.
Yep, pretty amazing.
It really doesn't. It shows how dissatisfied people are with him.
It says absolutely nothing about who the Democrats are likely to run against him.
Trump will beat the shit out of Corey Booker or Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or any of the other crazy leftists. He will have difficulty against a sane centrist.
Democrats around the country are deciding whether or not they want to embrace sanity or if they just want to be a different type of batshit than the current administration.
I love when people don't know the difference between the popular vote and the EC.
As much as I love the fools who continue to think the popular vote is relevant to winning the Presidency?
Riddle me this:
If Hillary and Trump were vying for the Presidency, isn't the one in the WH now the person who won?
Do you brag when your favorite team in football loses, but outgains the winner in yardage?
Um, yea. Gee that was an easy riddle to solve.
No, because I am not a football fan. Another easy one.
Wouldn't be very hard, just do what trump did, reverse everything he did, make it like he was never in office.
Yes, especially when those folks cannot get it through their heads that popular vote does not win presidential elections in this country, the EC decides that. It is the law of the land. If the progressive liberal left cannot get that through their heads, they should quit whining and belly aching and vote to change the election laws plain and simple. If they are unwilling or unable to do so, they should shut up and just deal with it.
So why then do you insist that Hillary won?
That is extremely illogical, especially in light of your acknowledgement that she actually LOST/
ED I have posted exactly that every time this subject comes up.
She DID win the popular vote. She LOST the EC. How many times does this have to be explained to you?
Who in hell would run to win the popular vote when it is meaningless?
Why would a serious candidate ever get the backing of any political party with such a dumbass strategy?
No one runs to win the popular vote.
They win to win office.
What is spleef?
Lol, you know what it is .... now pass that dutchie on over here
I really don't. I'm a MTF lover.
Okay, i'll play along ..... it's a fatty, a doobie, a marijuana cigarette.
And you're a fan of Mechanically Timed Fuses?
Who knew!
MTF is Mananuska Thunder Fuck. It is only grown in the Manauska Valley of AK and is the ultimate one toke smoke.
Lol and you didn’t know what a spleef or dutchie was?
Alrighty then ......
face it Sparty, she smoked you and left a coughing cloud of mystical magical maryjuan a
but, you took the Higher Ground
up buds and rolled away
so
pass it the fck over here
i like to Sparty all the time, as well
but,
won't smoke till late, as i apparently have ADD, but, it doesn't add up to me.
I'm about ready to get creative, but not here.
local watering hole is a fun gathering spot to make friction till i smoke, then i burn em to the ground
Nah, she bogarted the conversation and I passed it along. All in good fun though so the time is not wasted.
Sparty on!
I have never heard that term before but I will remember it, ty. I just usually call it a big fat one. At least now I know the proper term.
It was fun and right now I need fun.
Your grandma was running?
I would gladly share my bong with you, (just bought a new one).
Holy crap, this entire thread is awesome. New respect for some, increased respect for others.
Never underestimate the power of a prolonged hearty guffaw.
Don't partake much anymore but would happily join you with a nice single malt and a Padron cigar. Stopped largely because we had to institute drug testing at our company to retain some of our bigger customers. I made sure all admin personnel, including us owners get tested as well.
Leading from the front as it were .....
Would always rather share a laugh with you than a fight. That gets lost in this place a lot.
No one runs for the popular vote in a presidential election, but it is counted. Jesus fucking christ, let me explain it yet again since you are not understanding this stuff.
In presidential elections, the popular vote is counted but it doesn't have anything to do with winning the election, the EC, (EC=Electoral College), is what ultimately decides the winner in the presidential election.
The popular vote matters in ALL elections EXCEPT the presidential election.
NOW do you get it????!!!!
AH ok, well that's cool. In all honesty, I don't smoke much, maybe once a month when my hands bother me. Nice way to get a nice nights sleep too.
I ALWAYS got it.
That is why I don't go around crowing about the irrelevant popular vote like you do, because I learned long ago that it meant nothing. You will NEVER hear ME saying Clinton won ANYTHING, unlike yourself.
Do tell how someone "WINS" something no one is running for.
But I suppose you must take solace in SOMETHING, since your beloved Abuela lost.
Don't you have some stories to sell about how you think Fox is banned in Canada, er, the UK?
Approval/Disapproval ratings are not elections. Trump had terrible ratings in 2016, too. He won anyway. It doesn't matter.
On Election Day in November, you still have to make a choice between him and whoever he is running against. That choice is not "do you like Trump?" That choice is "considering everything you know about these people, pick one."
The flaw in the projections is that there must be a viable alternative to Trump. Trump won't be running against a generic Democrat.
If voters are not provided a viable alternative then Trump will win the election. What these projections say is that the 2020 election is the Democrat's to win or lose. Let's wait and see if Democrats nominate another loser before popping the champagne corks. Right now it doesn't look promising.
Polls show Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden leading Trump by double digits!
Really ..... as i recall Clinton had a double digit lead in the polls well into 2016 but let them toot their horns again. It's all they got really. Problem is they'll spool themselves up even deeper into denial than they did last time and the TDS will be even worse if Trump does win again.
Lord knows how many moon-bats will go off the deep end this time if that happens.
Yes, the polls in 2016 showed HRC ahead by 2-3% which was about the final tally. That was close enough for Trump to pull off an EC stinker butt Biden leads Trump by double digits. You are also conveniently forgetting the gop got trounced in the 2018 midterm elections. It looks bad for the damn gop with Trump dragging them down on 2020 when the Democrats are gonna turn your red map blue...
Try again. The RCP poll had Clinton up by nearly 15 points this time last election.
I would simmer down if i were you. It's still VERY early.
Yep and sad. Hilarious and sad ...... like a clown.
Hey Sparty, your link shows her at a +3.2%, not 15 points. Sorry man, hope you are well.
46.8/43.6. Which works out to ~3 million votes.
No sir Frosty ...... scroll across the table to 08-14-15. That gets you to the same amount of time before the 2016 election
52 - 37.7 nearly 15 points
My point being, it was early then and its still early now. WAY to early to hang a hat on any poll .....
Yeah? Biden has to beat the other Democrats before he can take on Trump. And the media is currently defining Biden as the old, senile uncle by transforming gaffes into a tweet format.
Democrats are offering all sorts of free stuff but are really in free fall. Democrats aren't controlling the media message. And trying to out-Trump Trump to get attention isn't going to be a winning strategy. Trump does that sort of thing better.
Democrats trying to take on Trump on Trump's terms isn't an alternative. We already have a Trump, we don't need another.
Let me look again..lol
Ok I see what you are saying, I was looking at 11/7, when it was at +3.2
I don't let the media decide who I am voting for. I make my own decision based on what each candidate has to say. But if you want to go down that road? Which Dem candidate is fox news backing?
I rest my case.
I have no idea who the media is backing at this point. The media has been transforming some of Biden's remarks into a tweet format that directly compares to Trump. We already have a Trump, we don't need another.
If the media doesn't influence who people vote for then that could explain Trump's election. The media has been delivering non-stop negative coverage of Trump since late 2015. Based on media coverage, voters knew who and what Trump was before the election. If the media doesn't influence elections then Russian meddling really didn't affect the election.
If media doesn't influence elections then all the campaign advertising is really a huge waste of money.
Is it just me or does Trump look like he is trying to pass a mega turd in his picture?
It does indeed look like that. Maybe he should send the endless diarrhea of his mouth down to to his buttocks. ??