Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  arkansashermit-too  •  11 months ago  •  145 comments

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T






Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him


By Ed Kilgore







original



A dream scenario for Democrats in 2020. Photo: 270towin.com



There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings , what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.

The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average ) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.

Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.

In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.

If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.

If the fourth scenario — a win against all the evidence — is Trump’s best hope for reelection, he’s the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, there’s evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil don’t have the collateral to pull that off twice.



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Old Hermit
1  seeder  Old Hermit    11 months ago

I know our next chance to heal America is still more than 400 days in the future but how about a little good news in these "dog day's of Summer".

 
 
 
Raven Wing
1.1  Raven Wing  replied to  Old Hermit @1    11 months ago

The title picture of Trump on this article looks just like some very spoiled 3 y/o's pitching a tantrum because they can't have their way.

Reminds me of as picture I have seen of Mussolini with his arms crossed and his defiant, arrogant pout face on that looks just like the one Trump is wearing. 

Yeah.....and this is the President of the US who is supposed to be older than 3 y/o.  /s

 
 
 
Old Hermit
1.1.1  seeder  Old Hermit  replied to  Raven Wing @1.1    11 months ago
The title picture of Trump on this article looks just like some very spoiled 3 y/o's pitching a tantrum because they can't have their way.

What's sad is how many similar images of him there were to chose from. 

It's kind of the default position for our current Commander and Chump.

 
 
 
Raven Wing
1.1.2  Raven Wing  replied to  Old Hermit @1.1.1    11 months ago
It's kind of the default position for our current Commander and Chump.

Agree. Someone must have told him he could not make himself the Emperor of America when that photo was taken. 

 
 
 
Old Hermit
2  seeder  Old Hermit    11 months ago

The numbers in this article aren't that surprising to me.

Trump and his polices were soundly rejected by the American voters and all he's done in office is prove the voters were correct in their assessments.

Trump loss the vote count but, thanks to the voter corrupting EC, he threw back 4 cards and then drew a royal flush to become President, much to the disgust of most Americans.

Of course the electoral map highlighted in the article is pretty much pie in the sky stuff, (I don't expect Texas to go back to Blue until 2024 or 2028 but I'm prepared to be pleasantly surprised), however, even if you give Trump the 69 votes from Texas, Georgia and North Carolina, where he's ahead in the "Morning Consult" polling, it would still be a pretty embarrassing repudiation.

In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.
 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
3  FLYNAVY1    11 months ago

Screw the projections....... Americans just need to get off their backsides and participate in government.  That way we can be sure to friggen vote the aberration that is in the WH out of office.  All 50 states and the DC have the obligation to return the US back to it's law abiding world leadership role.

 
 
 
Old Hermit
3.1  seeder  Old Hermit  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @3    11 months ago

From "Your Lips..." Flynavy1, from "Your Lips...".

 
 
 
XDm9mm
3.3  XDm9mm  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @3    11 months ago
All 50 states and the DC have the obligation to return the US back to it's law abiding world leadership role.

Have no fear.  President Trump has been accomplishing just that.  Interestingly, he's rebuilding the Navy that his predecessor allowed to significantly degrade from it's previous position of preeminent global naval power (albeit it still retained that position, but in a much weaker state than before)  which I would surmise you would actually approve of.   

President Trump is also ensuring that allies, especially those of significant wealth, like European nations, contribute what they actually agreed to contribute to THEIR defense as opposed to having American taxpayers foot the bill.

I could go on, but it would do no good.  You despise President Trump simply because he's Republican and is succeeding where so many before him failed.   And some just liked the old status quo.

 
 
 
Dulay
3.3.1  Dulay  replied to  XDm9mm @3.3    11 months ago
Interestingly, he's rebuilding the Navy that his predecessor allowed to significantly degrade from it's previous position of preeminent global naval power (albeit it still retained that position, but in a much weaker state than before)  which I would surmise you would actually approve of.   

What evidence do you have that Trump is 'rebuilding the Navy'?

From everything I've read, Trump isn't building ships any faster that Obama did. NO ships built from Trump's budget have been commissioned. In fact, the Navy's 30 year building plan from 2013 and 2019 aren't that much different. 

 
 
 
katrix
3.3.2  katrix  replied to  Dulay @3.3.1    11 months ago
What evidence do you have that Trump is 'rebuilding the Navy'?

Before he took office, the Navy announced a plan to get to 355 ships (which will take decades).  The Navy plan called for it to be done in the 2050s.

Typical Trump, taking credit for things he had nothing to do with, and knowing his supporters won't even notice because they hate Obama so much.

 
 
 
MrFrost
3.3.3  MrFrost  replied to  XDm9mm @3.3    11 months ago
Have no fear.  President Trump has been accomplishing just that. 

So refusing to show up for subpoena's is law abiding? Trump is the most lawless president we have ever had. 

https://www.salon.com/2019/06/19/donald-trump-has-repeatedly-violated-his-oath-of-office-reason-enough-for-impeachment/

 
 
 
Dulay
3.3.4  Dulay  replied to  katrix @3.3.2    11 months ago
Typical Trump, taking credit for things he had nothing to do with, and knowing his supporters won't even notice because they hate Obama so much.

Not only that but they disseminating Trump's BS to the willfully uninformed to swill like koolaid. 

 
 
 
Tessylo
3.3.5  Tessylo  replied to  MrFrost @3.3.3    11 months ago

How many presidents have sued their own government like this 'president'?  To not release his taxes, etc.?

 
 
 
MUVA
3.3.6  MUVA  replied to  Tessylo @3.3.5    11 months ago

He is the only one he has been treated unfairly I hope you never get to see them it is none of your business.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
3.4  Jack_TX  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @3    11 months ago
All 50 states and the DC have the obligation to return the US back to it's law abiding world leadership role.

Fine.

Give us a non-lunatic to vote for.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
3.4.1  JohnRussell  replied to  Jack_TX @3.4    11 months ago

Stop acting like you are forced to vote for Trump. Every single one of the Democrats running for presidents is more honest and a better human being than Donald Trump, period.   As far as any of them being too far left or socialist, the constraints of our political system would keep the actions of any of them, as president, in the mainstream. 

Voting for Trump should not be an option for anyone who wants to see America return to morality and honesty from the president.   

Stop acting like someone is forced to vote for Trump. It's ridiculous. 

 
 
 
Jack_TX
3.4.2  Jack_TX  replied to  JohnRussell @3.4.1    11 months ago
Stop acting like you are forced to vote for Trump.

Make no mistake.  I am not forced to do anything. 

Every single one of the Democrats running for presidents is more honest and a better human being than Donald Trump, period.

I'm sure you believe so.  Personally, I don't care.  My vote will go to the person I judge as least likely to fuck up our country in actual real life.  Twitter does not count as real life.

   As far as any of them being too far left or socialist, the constraints of our political system would keep the actions of any of them, as president, in the mainstream. 

Coming from you, that's ridiculous bullshit....especially given the hysteria you embrace related to everything Trump.

Voting for Trump should not be an option for anyone who wants to see America return to morality and honesty from the president. 

Grown ups understand that neither of those things are remotely likely no matter who is elected.   

Stop acting like someone is forced to vote for Trump. It's ridiculous. 

Stop guessing what I think.  You're total rubbish at it.  If you want me to vote against Trump, get off your ass and get me somebody better to vote for.  Hint...that's not "anybody but Trump".  

Tens of millions of us are not going to vote for somebody who wants to double our taxes so they can take away our health insurance.  We're not going to vote for somebody who wants us to pay off student loans for Millennials after we already paid to put our own through college. 

People who expect us to do that because "Trump says mean things on Twitter" need to look up from their phones for a minute and grow the fuck up.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4  Sparty On    11 months ago

....... I'm getting deja vu all over again ......

 
 
 
It Is ME
4.1  It Is ME  replied to  Sparty On @4    11 months ago
....... I'm getting deja vu all over again ......

Hillary Clinton wins big !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
 
 
Ozzwald
4.1.1  Ozzwald  replied to  It Is ME @4.1    11 months ago
Hillary Clinton wins big !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, we already know she won the election by 3 million votes.  What's your point?  This articles shows how much more unlikely it is that the electoral college will give the win to Trump in 2020.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.2  Sparty On  replied to  It Is ME @4.1    11 months ago

Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes .....

 
 
 
It Is ME
4.1.3  It Is ME  replied to  Ozzwald @4.1.1    11 months ago
What's your point? 

It was all Bullshit about Hillary and a Definitive WIN ! jrSmiley_76_smiley_image.gif

One day, you'll understand how elections actually work. But apparently, not yet. jrSmiley_89_smiley_image.gif

"This articles shows how much more unlikely it is that the electoral college will give the win to Trump in 2020."

And Trump couldn't bridge the "Blue" gap when he actually did either. jrSmiley_99_smiley_image.jpg

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.4  JohnRussell  replied to  Ozzwald @4.1.1    11 months ago

There hasnt been a good poll for Trump since he took office.  His fans have no choice put to poo-poo these results. 

The key to understanding this is not the fact that Trump won anyway in 2016 even though the national polls showed him narrowly losing, the key is the results of the 2018 midterms, where the Democrats got the most votes in modern midterms history. In the last election we have to go by, Trump was repudiated. The truth is that he has been such a profound and total embarrassment to the United States of America, a strong majority (something like 55%) say they will never vote for Trump in 2020 under any circumstances.  He is well underwater in polls in states that he won in 2016. Why? Because the people have observed him in office since 2017. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.5  Texan1211  replied to  Ozzwald @4.1.1    11 months ago

I love when people think Hillary won.

That has GOT to be one of the stupidest things I have ever heard.

What did she win? Is she President?

Where do y'all GET this crap from?

Do you think you get to redefine what it takes to win the Presidency because your old gal lost?

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.6  Texan1211  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.4    11 months ago

@4.1.4

There wasn't a good poll for Trump before the last election, either.

Yet he still beat Abuela.

You keep putting all your little eggs in your little polling basket.

It worked so well before, right?

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.7  JohnRussell  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.6    11 months ago

You say the same content free things every day. Dont you get tired? 

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.8  Texan1211  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.7    11 months ago

I DO get tired of your little old I Hate Trump screed, John.

Do you understand the CONTENT of THAT?

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
4.1.9  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.7    11 months ago

Texan speaks the truth that progressive leftist liberals can't stand to hear!

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
4.1.10  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.4    11 months ago

I feel sorry for whoever has to undo the damage Trump has caused.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.11  XDm9mm  replied to  Ozzwald @4.1.1    11 months ago
What's your point?  This articles shows how much more unlikely it is that the electoral college will give the win to Trump in 2020.

Well, per all the asshat talking heads, like the ones doing this 'survey', Trump had absolutely no chance of getting anywhere near the REQUISITE number of Electoral College votes to win the election.

Even on election night their projections insisted that Trump had no chance, well, it will be close, it might be real close....

OH FUCK   TRUMP WON!!!    How could we be so wrong?

Oh, yet one more time.  Popular votes mean essentially nothing.  It's like being close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.   

CLINTON STILL LOST.  

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.12  XDm9mm  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @4.1.10    11 months ago
I feel sorry for whoever has to undo the damage Trump has caused.

Yeah, let's go back to a stagnant economy, higher unemployment, higher minority unemployment, trade pacts that would eviscerate the American economy while building the economies of others, kowtowing to despots around the world, drawing red lines in the sand.

Yeah, we all want that.  //S//

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
4.1.13  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  XDm9mm @4.1.12    11 months ago

Those red lines should have read, water color red lines on the sand in a surf line....

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.14  Sparty On  replied to  XDm9mm @4.1.12    11 months ago
Yeah, we all want that.  //S//

Actually, unbelievably, (at least to me) some people really do want that.   They want people to HAVE TO rely on the Fed more. 

The Fed is largely a bloated, inefficient mess.   They want more bloat, more inefficiency.

It's mind boggling really .......

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.15  Sparty On  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @4.1.10    11 months ago

Don't bogart that spleef you're smoking ..... pass it on over to me!

That must be some good shit .......

 
 
 
Ozzwald
4.1.16  Ozzwald  replied to  XDm9mm @4.1.12    11 months ago
Yeah, let's go back to a stagnant economy,

Yes, a failing economy is so much better than a growing one under Obama.

higher unemployment,

If Trump had done nothing the unemployment would be the same as it is.  Are you counting soy farmers with your unemployed numbers?

higher minority unemployment,

Hahaha.  

trade pacts that would eviscerate the American economy while building the economies of others,

You feel we are better off losing the trade war to China?  Or do you just like Trump raising taxes (tariffs) on American people?

kowtowing to despots around the world,

Seriously?  Trump gets a woody every time he is around a tyrant.  Especial Kim and Putin.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.17  XDm9mm  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.14    11 months ago
Actually, unbelievably, (at least to me) some people really do want that.

Very true.  Bill Maher for one is actually hoping for a recession as he believes that will be the only way to get President Trump out of office and a Democrat in.

....

"But Bill, you don’t really want a recession," shot back Anthony Scaramucci , Trump's former White House communications director and a now occasional critic of the administration.

“I really do. We have survived many recessions. We can’t survive another Donald Trump term,” Maher responded.

....

Source:  https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/456942-bill-maher-roots-for-recession-so-that-trump-loses-in-2020

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.18  Sparty On  replied to  XDm9mm @4.1.17    11 months ago

Yep, pretty amazing.

 
 
 
Greg Jones
4.1.19  Greg Jones  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.7    11 months ago
You say the same content free things every day. Don't YOU get tired? 

 
 
 
Jack_TX
4.1.20  Jack_TX  replied to  Ozzwald @4.1.1    11 months ago
This articles shows how much more unlikely it is that the electoral college will give the win to Trump in 2020.

It really doesn't.  It shows how dissatisfied people are with him.  

It says absolutely nothing about who the Democrats are likely to run against him.

Trump will beat the shit out of Corey Booker or Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or any of the other crazy leftists.  He will have difficulty against a sane centrist.

Democrats around the country are deciding whether or not they want to embrace sanity or if they just want to be a different type of batshit than the current administration.

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.21  MrFrost  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.5    11 months ago
I love when people think Hillary won.

I love when people don't know the difference between the popular vote and the EC. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.22  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.21    11 months ago
I love when people don't know the difference between the popular vote and the EC.

As much as I love the fools who continue to think the popular vote is relevant to winning the Presidency?

Riddle me this:

If Hillary and Trump were vying for the Presidency, isn't the one in the WH now the person who won?

Do you brag when your favorite team in football loses, but outgains the winner in yardage?

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.23  MrFrost  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.22    11 months ago
If Hillary and Trump were vying for the Presidency, isn't the one in the WH now the person who won?

Um, yea. Gee that was an easy riddle to solve. 

Do you brag when your favorite team in football loses, but outgains the winner in yardage?

No, because I am not a football fan. Another easy one. 

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.24  MrFrost  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @4.1.10    11 months ago
I feel sorry for whoever has to undo the damage Trump has caused.

Wouldn't be very hard, just do what trump did, reverse everything he did, make it like he was never in office. 

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
4.1.25  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.21    11 months ago

Yes, especially when those folks cannot get it through their heads that popular vote does not win presidential elections in this country, the EC decides that. It is the law of the land. If the progressive liberal left cannot get that through their heads, they should quit whining and belly aching and vote to change the election laws plain and simple. If they are unwilling or unable to do so, they should shut up and just deal with it. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.26  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.23    11 months ago
Um, yea. Gee that was an easy riddle to solve.

So why then do you insist that Hillary won?

That is extremely illogical, especially in light of your acknowledgement that she actually LOST/

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.27  MrFrost  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @4.1.25    11 months ago

Yes, especially when those folks cannot get it through their heads that popular vote does not win presidential elections in this country, the EC decides that. It is the law of the land. If the progressive liberal left cannot get that through their heads, they should quit whining and belly aching and vote to change the election laws plain and simple. If they are unwilling or unable to do so, they should shut up and just deal with it. 

ED I have posted exactly that every time this subject comes up. 

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.28  MrFrost  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.26    11 months ago
So why then do you insist that Hillary won?

She DID win the popular vote. She LOST the EC. How many times does this have to be explained to you? 

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.29  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.28    11 months ago

Who in hell would run to win the popular vote when it is meaningless?

Why would a serious candidate ever get the backing of any political party with such a dumbass strategy?

No one runs to win the popular vote.

They win to win office.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
4.1.30  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.15    11 months ago

What is spleef?

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.31  Sparty On  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @4.1.30    11 months ago

Lol, you know what it is .... now pass that dutchie on over here

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
4.1.32  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.31    11 months ago

I really don't.  I'm a MTF lover.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.33  Sparty On  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @4.1.32    11 months ago

Okay, i'll play along ..... it's a fatty, a doobie, a marijuana cigarette.

And you're a fan of Mechanically Timed Fuses?  

Who knew!

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
4.1.34  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.33    11 months ago

MTF is Mananuska Thunder Fuck.  It is only grown in the Manauska Valley of AK and is the ultimate one toke smoke.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.35  Sparty On  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @4.1.34    11 months ago

Lol and you didn’t know what a spleef or dutchie was?

Alrighty then ......

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
4.1.36  igknorantzrulz  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.35    11 months ago

face it Sparty, she smoked you and left a coughing cloud of mystical magical maryjuan a   

but, you took the Higher Ground

up buds and rolled away

so

pass it the fck over here

i like to Sparty all the time, as well

but, 

won't smoke till late, as i apparently have ADD, but, it doesn't add up to me.

I'm about ready to get creative, but not here.

local watering hole is a fun gathering spot to make friction till i smoke, then i burn em to the ground

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.37  Sparty On  replied to  igknorantzrulz @4.1.36    11 months ago

Nah, she bogarted the conversation and I passed it along.    All in good fun though so the time is not wasted.

Sparty on!

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
4.1.38  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.35    11 months ago

I have never heard that term before but I will remember it, ty.  I just usually call it a big fat one.  At least now I know the proper term.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
4.1.39  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.37    11 months ago

It was fun and right now I need fun.

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.40  MrFrost  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.6    11 months ago
Yet he still beat Abuela.

Your grandma was running? 

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.41  MrFrost  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.31    11 months ago
Lol, you know what it is .... now pass that dutchie on over here

I would gladly share my bong with you, (just bought a new one). 

 
 
 
Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom
4.1.42  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.40    11 months ago
Your grandma was running?

256

 
 
 
Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom
4.1.43  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom  replied to  igknorantzrulz @4.1.36    11 months ago
face it Sparty, she smoked you and left a coughing cloud of mystical magical maryjuan a

Holy crap, this entire thread is awesome.  New respect for some, increased respect for others.

Never underestimate the power of a prolonged hearty guffaw.  

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.44  Sparty On  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.41    11 months ago

Don't partake much anymore but would happily join you with a nice single malt and a Padron cigar.   Stopped largely because we had to institute drug testing at our company to retain some of our bigger customers.   I made sure all admin personnel, including us owners get tested as well.

Leading from the front as it were .....

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.45  Sparty On  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @4.1.39    11 months ago

Would always rather share a laugh with you than a fight.   That gets lost in this place a lot.

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.46  MrFrost  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.29    11 months ago
Who in hell would run to win the popular vote when it is meaningless?

No one runs for the popular vote in a presidential election, but it is counted. Jesus fucking christ, let me explain it yet again since you are not understanding this stuff.

In presidential elections, the popular vote is counted but it doesn't have anything to do with winning the election, the EC, (EC=Electoral College), is what ultimately decides the winner in the presidential election.

The popular vote matters in ALL elections EXCEPT the presidential election. 

NOW do you get it????!!!! 

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.47  MrFrost  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.44    11 months ago

AH ok, well that's cool. In all honesty, I don't smoke much, maybe once a month when my hands bother me. Nice way to get a nice nights sleep too. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.48  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.46    11 months ago

I ALWAYS got it.

That is why I don't go around crowing about the irrelevant popular vote like you do, because I learned long ago that it meant nothing. You will NEVER hear ME saying Clinton won ANYTHING, unlike yourself.

Do tell how someone "WINS" something no one is running for.

But I suppose you must take solace in SOMETHING, since your beloved Abuela lost.

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.49  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.47    11 months ago

Don't you have some stories to sell about how you think Fox is banned in Canada, er, the UK?

 
 
 
Tacos!
6  Tacos!    11 months ago

Approval/Disapproval ratings are not elections. Trump had terrible ratings in 2016, too. He won anyway. It doesn't matter.

On Election Day in November, you still have to make a choice between him and whoever he is running against. That choice is not "do you like Trump?" That choice is "considering everything you know about these people, pick one." 

 
 
 
Nerm_L
7  Nerm_L    11 months ago

The flaw in the projections is that there must be a viable alternative to Trump.  Trump won't be running against a generic Democrat.

If voters are not provided a viable alternative then Trump will win the election.  What these projections say is that the 2020 election is the Democrat's to win or lose.  Let's wait and see if Democrats nominate another loser before popping the champagne corks.  Right now it doesn't look promising.

 
 
 
JBB
7.1  JBB  replied to  Nerm_L @7    11 months ago

Polls show Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden leading Trump by double digits!

 
 
 
badfish
7.1.1  badfish  replied to  JBB @7.1    11 months ago

I remember those polls saying the same thing in 2016. How did that work out for ya?

 
 
 
Sparty On
7.1.2  Sparty On  replied to  badfish @7.1.1    11 months ago

Really ..... as i recall Clinton had a double digit lead in the polls well into 2016 but let them toot their horns again.   It's all they got really.   Problem is they'll spool themselves up even deeper into denial than they did last time and the TDS will be even worse if Trump does win again.

Lord knows how many moon-bats will go off the deep end this time if that happens.

 
 
 
JBB
7.1.3  JBB  replied to  badfish @7.1.1    11 months ago

Yes, the polls in 2016 showed HRC ahead by 2-3% which was about the final tally. That was close enough for Trump to pull off an EC stinker butt Biden leads Trump by double digits. You are also conveniently forgetting the gop got trounced in the 2018 midterm elections. It looks bad for the damn gop with Trump dragging them down on 2020 when the Democrats are gonna turn your red map blue...

 
 
 
Sparty On
7.1.4  Sparty On  replied to  JBB @7.1.3    11 months ago

Try again.   The RCP poll had Clinton up by nearly 15 points this time last election.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

I would simmer down if i were you.   It's still VERY early.

 
 
 
badfish
7.1.5  badfish  replied to  Sparty On @7.1.4    11 months ago

The media is peddling hope again so democrats can get out of bed each day. We had the biggest purveyor of propaganda seed an article during the 2016 election that said, Hillary Clinton has a 107% chance of winning days before the election.

This is going to be hilarious to watch it all over again.

 
 
 
Sparty On
7.1.6  Sparty On  replied to  badfish @7.1.5    11 months ago
This is going to be hilarious to watch it all over again.

Yep and sad.   Hilarious and sad ...... like a clown.

 
 
 
MrFrost
7.1.7  MrFrost  replied to  Sparty On @7.1.4    11 months ago
Try again.   The RCP poll had Clinton up by nearly 15 points this time last election.

Hey Sparty, your link shows her at a +3.2%, not 15 points. Sorry man, hope you are well. 

46.8/43.6. Which works out to ~3 million votes. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
7.1.8  Sparty On  replied to  MrFrost @7.1.7    11 months ago

No sir Frosty ...... scroll across the table to 08-14-15.   That gets you to the same amount of time before the 2016 election

52 - 37.7 nearly 15 points

My point being, it was early then and its still early now.   WAY to early to hang a hat on any poll .....

 
 
 
Nerm_L
7.1.9  Nerm_L  replied to  JBB @7.1    11 months ago
Polls show Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden leading Trump by double digits!

Yeah?  Biden has to beat the other Democrats before he can take on Trump.  And the media is currently defining Biden as the old, senile uncle by transforming gaffes into a tweet format.

Democrats are offering all sorts of free stuff but are really in free fall.  Democrats aren't controlling the media message.  And trying to out-Trump Trump to get attention isn't going to be a winning strategy.  Trump does that sort of thing better.

Democrats trying to take on Trump on Trump's terms isn't an alternative.  We already have a Trump, we don't need another.

 
 
 
MrFrost
7.1.10  MrFrost  replied to  Sparty On @7.1.8    11 months ago

Let me look again..lol

Ok I see what you are saying, I was looking at 11/7, when it was at +3.2

 
 
 
MrFrost
7.1.11  MrFrost  replied to  Nerm_L @7.1.9    11 months ago
And the media

I don't let the media decide who I am voting for. I make my own decision based on what each candidate has to say. But if you want to go down that road? Which Dem candidate is fox news backing? 

I rest my case. 

 
 
 
Nerm_L
7.1.12  Nerm_L  replied to  MrFrost @7.1.11    11 months ago
I don't let the media decide who I am voting for. I make my own decision based on what each candidate has to say. But if you want to go down that road? Which Dem candidate is fox news backing? 

I have no idea who the media is backing at this point.  The media has been transforming some of Biden's remarks into a tweet format that directly compares to Trump.  We already have a Trump, we don't need another.

If the media doesn't influence who people vote for then that could explain Trump's election.  The media has been delivering non-stop negative coverage of Trump since late 2015.  Based on media coverage, voters knew who and what Trump was before the election.  If the media doesn't influence elections then Russian meddling really didn't affect the election.

If media doesn't influence elections then all the campaign advertising is really a huge waste of money.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
8  Paula Bartholomew    11 months ago

Is it just me or does Trump look like he is trying to pass a mega turd in his picture?

 
 
 
Raven Wing
8.1  Raven Wing  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @8    11 months ago
Is it just me or does Trump look like he is trying to pass a mega turd in his picture?

It does indeed look like that. Maybe he should send the endless diarrhea of his mouth down to to his buttocks. ?? 

 
 
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