Presidential election model that got it wrong once in 40 years predicts Trump 2020 win
A presidential election model that incorrectly predicted just one election outcome since 1980 shows President Trump winning reelection in 2020.
Moody’s Analytics released the results of its 2020 prediction model on Tuesday showing Trump winning with 332 electoral votes, an increase over his 2016 win of 306, if voter turnout remains relatively close to the historical average.
The Moody's Analytics model takes into account political dynamics but weighs heavily on economic factors. If the economy remains strong and voter turnout meets the historical average or is low, the model shows Trump winning handily. In the event that voter turnout hits its historical high, the Democratic candidate is expected to win a close race with 279 electoral votes, just over the 270 vote threshold.
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, public finance research director Dan White, and assistant director Bernard Yaros coauthored the study.
"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," the authors said. "It's about turnout."
The model accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980 except for the most recent one in 2016. Afterward, the authors retooled the single model and broke it into three that, averaged together, would have accurately predicted every election. The model is broken up into "the pocketbook model," "the stock market model," and "the unemployment model."