Presidential election model that got it wrong once in 40 years predicts Trump 2020 win

  
Via:  kdmichigan  •  one month ago  •  73 comments

Presidential election model that got it wrong once in 40 years predicts Trump 2020 win
A presidential election model that incorrectly predicted just one election outcome since 1980 shows President Trump winning reelection in 2020.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


A presidential election model that incorrectly predicted just one election outcome since 1980 shows President Trump winning reelection in 2020.

Moody’s Analytics released the results of its 2020 prediction model on Tuesday showing Trump winning with 332 electoral votes, an increase over his 2016 win of 306, if voter turnout remains relatively close to the historical average.

The Moody's Analytics model takes into account political dynamics but weighs heavily on economic factors. If the economy remains strong and voter turnout meets the historical average or is low, the model shows Trump winning handily. In the event that voter turnout hits its historical high, the Democratic candidate is expected to win a close race with 279 electoral votes, just over the 270 vote threshold.

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, public finance research director Dan White, and assistant director Bernard Yaros coauthored the study.
"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," the authors said. "It's about turnout."
The model accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980 except for the most recent one in 2016. Afterward, the authors retooled the single model and broke it into three that, averaged together, would have accurately predicted every election. The model is broken up into "the pocketbook model," "the stock market model," and "the unemployment model."


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KDMichigan
1  seeder  KDMichigan    one month ago

Does this mean to get ready for 5 more years of crying from the left? I don't think anything can top the 2016 Triggered snowflake breakdown that persist still today.

Democrats might need a new Seal...

256

 
 
 
Heartland American
1.1  Heartland American  replied to  KDMichigan @1    one month ago

There’s nothing new about that seal to them....

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
2  Paula Bartholomew    one month ago

With all that you have seen, heard, and witnessed from this clown and you still support him.  That passed sad about a mile back.

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
2.1  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @2    one month ago
With all that you have seen, heard, and witnessed from this clown and you still support him. 

For a million plus times or so,it's really not a choice when you consider the opposition.  And you are absolutely right, it is sad many more times over knowing the corner the left wingers and DC establishment and their deep state cohorts have backed good people into.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
2.1.1  Jack_TX  replied to  Freedom Warrior @2.1    one month ago
For a million plus times or so,it's really not a choice when you consider the opposition.

I'm not sure how this gets missed.

 
 
 
Heartland American
2.1.2  Heartland American  replied to  Jack_TX @2.1.1    one month ago

and yet it does and did in 2016 as well.  

 
 
 
KDMichigan
2.2  seeder  KDMichigan  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @2    one month ago
you still support him. 

[Deleted]

 
 
 
Heartland American
2.2.1  Heartland American  replied to  KDMichigan @2.2    one month ago

[Deleted]

 
 
 
WallyW
2.3  WallyW  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @2    one month ago

Your sad attempts at shaming us are pathetic.

 
 
 
Heartland American
2.3.1  Heartland American  replied to  WallyW @2.3    one month ago

Indeed.  You are right on target.  

 
 
 
Heartland American
2.4  Heartland American  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @2    one month ago

I proudly still support our President now more than ever and that our support of him offends secular progressives makes said support all the sweeter.  We ❤️ Our great American 🇺🇸 President! 

 
 
 
CB
2.4.1  CB   replied to  Heartland American @2.4    one month ago

Irrelevant. Flies 'flock' to you know what.  Oh and there is this precious jewel:

President Trump has made 13,435 false or misleading

claims over 993 days *

* Some kind of record that is, and to this day we can still count the supporters he has lost on one 'paw.'

 
 
 
Ender
3  Ender    one month ago

I read this article. It also said if turnout is high a Dem will win.

 
 
 
KDMichigan
3.1  seeder  KDMichigan  replied to  Ender @3    one month ago
I read this article.

Good for you, I read it too. 

 
 
 
CB
3.1.1  CB   replied to  KDMichigan @3.1    one month ago

I read it, 'three.' It's short!

 
 
 
Texan1211
3.2  Texan1211  replied to  Ender @3    one month ago
I read this article. It also said if turnout is high a Dem will win.

How closely did you actually read it?

It says:

"In the event that voter turnout hits its historical high, the Democratic candidate is expected to win a close race with 279 electoral votes, just over the 270 vote threshold.

 
 
 
MrFrost
3.3  MrFrost  replied to  Ender @3    one month ago

I read this article. It also said if turnout is high a Dem will win.

That's why the gop has always favored voter suppression and gerrymandering. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
3.3.1  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @3.3    4 weeks ago
That's why the gop has always favored voter suppression

So now you are saying that the GOP is exactly like the Democrats were when Democrats passed Jim Crow laws?

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4  JohnRussell    one month ago

The article actually predicts a Democratic president if the turnout is high. By next November we could be looking at a record turnout. Trump will piss that many people off. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1  Texan1211  replied to  JohnRussell @4    one month ago
The article actually predicts a Democratic president if the turnout is high. 

Hmmmmm. Is that what the article really says?

I read it far differently. See post 3.2

 
 
 
KDMichigan
4.2  seeder  KDMichigan  replied to  JohnRussell @4    one month ago
By next November we could be looking at a record turnout.

"Hillary in a landslide"

"No possible scenario for Trump to win electoral college"

"Mueller report will find Trump colluded with Russia"

256

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.2.1  Texan1211  replied to  KDMichigan @4.2    one month ago

Yeah, but the POLLS had Trump losing to Clinton.

That makes ALL the difference in bizarro world!

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.2.2  MrFrost  replied to  Texan1211 @4.2.1    one month ago
Yeah, but the POLLS had Trump losing to Clinton.

Polls reflect the POPULAR vote. Who won the POPULAR vote? 

 
 
 
CB
4.2.3  CB   replied to  MrFrost @4.2.2    one month ago

Moreover, the Russians, Hillary's stupid server issue, FaceBook, Cambridge Analytical, and a virtual fhit-storm all collided in a fine year 2016. Efforts are underway to make it a better election in 2020.

I tell you this nation should be a bastion of doing things the proper way. What we have here are being defending theft, crookedness, and deceit for deceit sake! What a sad state of play for the country that once thought it could model "good" to other nations. The United States has become the problem we warned others about!

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.2.4  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @4.2.2    4 weeks ago
Polls reflect the POPULAR vote. Who won the POPULAR vote? 

Gee, was there some candidate who didn't quite understand Presidential elections and thought that if you win the popular vote, you win the election?

Virtually every poll also had Trump with no chance at winning the election.

Remember, he had NO path to 270!

But you keep your beloved Abuela's second place, popular vote trophy all nice and shiny for her, y'hear now?

 
 
 
Krishna
5  Krishna    one month ago

Anybody that believes that they can predict the outcome of the next presidential election this early..is fooling themselves.

(But then again, NT is a social media site...so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised!)

 
 
 
Ender
5.1  Ender  replied to  Krishna @5    one month ago

We don't even have a Dem nom yet.  Haha

Imo the gist of the article was it depends on Dem turnout. If Dem turnout is low and no excitement, trump will take it, if they can get out the vote and people to the polls they have a good chance.

I am thinking about doing my own poll though. Just two choices. Am I good looking or extremely good looking.  : )

 
 
 
KDMichigan
5.1.1  seeder  KDMichigan  replied to  Ender @5.1    one month ago
We don't even have a Dem nom yet.  Haha

Speaking of...are you not watching the clown show now? Who is your favorite candidate?

 
 
 
Ender
5.1.2  Ender  replied to  KDMichigan @5.1.1    one month ago

No point in watching (for me) until they thin the herd.

As much as I know you all hate it, I like Biden.

 
 
 
CB
5.1.3  CB   replied to  Ender @5.1.2    one month ago

I like Biden. But you want to know who is the stand-up 'kid' to me? Buttigieg. He is not ready yet (in rank), but this guy is ready for something important. Each time, Mr. Buttigieg speaks who see a guy with "bright eyes." That is, he stands behind his words!

 
 
 
Ender
5.1.4  Ender  replied to  CB @5.1.3    one month ago

I like him but I have to say...His name is so unfortunate.

 
 
 
pat wilson
5.1.5  pat wilson  replied to  Ender @5.1.4    one month ago

His name sounds like "Buddha-Judge". What could be wrong with that, lol.

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
5.1.6  Freedom Warrior  replied to  pat wilson @5.1.5    one month ago

I thought it was bootyplug.

 
 
 
CB
5.1.7  CB   replied to  Ender @5.1.4    one month ago

Okay. Okay. Okay. Just about the time I am getting used to that name and its proper pronunciation. . .you got me in the 'chops' with that one!

HA!

What I observe in Pete B., is a man who is smart and takes himself seriously. Sexuality is not a crutch with him. In this, he makes me proud!

 
 
 
pat wilson
5.1.8  pat wilson  replied to  Freedom Warrior @5.1.6    one month ago

I've got a great come-back but I don't want a CoC.

 
 
 
CB
5.1.9  CB   replied to  Freedom Warrior @5.1.6    one month ago

Butt jokes. Really? What comes next? Toilet humor?

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
5.1.10  Freedom Warrior  replied to  CB @5.1.9    one month ago

What do you want?  Sympathy?

 
 
 
CB
5.1.11  CB   replied to  Freedom Warrior @5.1.10    one month ago

Sympathy? What is that?

I want you to get it all out of your 'system.' Pun intended. 

 
 
 
Heartland American
5.1.12  Heartland American  replied to  Ender @5.1    one month ago

Turnout and the economy...

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
5.1.13  Freedom Warrior  replied to  CB @5.1.11    one month ago

Your intentions notwithstanding there was no pun.

 
 
 
Heartland American
5.1.14  Heartland American  replied to  CB @5.1.9    one month ago

For democrats only....

 
 
 
CB
5.1.15  CB   replied to  Heartland American @5.1.14    one month ago

Well, you're out of SOL. Democrats love 'em some "Buttigieg." (Winkie.)

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
5.1.16  Freedom Warrior  replied to  CB @5.1.15    one month ago

Not a lot of love for buttplug in the polls.

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1.17  Texan1211  replied to  Ender @5.1    one month ago
Imo the gist of the article was it depends on Dem turnout. If Dem turnout is low and no excitement, trump will take it, if they can get out the vote and people to the polls they have a good chance.

Turnout in 2016 was higher than in 2012.

Trump won with a higher turnout than what got Obama elected in 2012.

Democrats simply do not always win when turnout is higher, despite what some claim.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
5.1.18  JohnRussell  replied to  Texan1211 @5.1.17    one month ago

They started keeping turnout statistics for presidential elections in 1828.  There have been 47 elections since then , 2016 had the 33rd highest turnout of the 47.  Historically speaking , it was low turnout. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections

The assumption is made that high turnout will help the Democrat because there are more Democrats than there are Republicans. 

 
 
 
Jack_TX
5.1.19  Jack_TX  replied to  Ender @5.1.2    one month ago
No point in watching (for me) until they thin the herd. As much as I know you all hate it, I like Biden.

I agree on both counts.  

He seems the only sane Democrat with a chance at the nomination.

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1.20  Texan1211  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.18    one month ago

My point, which obviously was missed, is that a Democrat won in 2012 with an even lower turnout which got Trump elected.

Do you believe that 2020 will be a record turnout, as needed according to the model predicting a Democratic win IF there is a record turnout?

 
 
 
CB
5.1.21  CB   replied to  Freedom Warrior @5.1.16    one month ago

Mayor Pete Buttigieg will grow in the polls. After all, the television talking heads just took exceptional notice of him in the CNN/NYT Debate tonight.

 
 
 
squiggy
5.1.22  squiggy  replied to  Ender @5.1    one month ago

“...people to the polls they have a good...”

More like, ‘all the people and they might’.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
5.2  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Krishna @5    one month ago

If it had never been wrong, that would be another matter.  If it was wrong once, it can be again.

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.2.1  Texan1211  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @5.2    one month ago
If it had never been wrong, that would be another matter.  If it was wrong once, it can be again

Looks like the authors fixed that little mistake.

"The model accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980 except for the most recent one in 2016. Afterward, the authors retooled the single model and broke it into three that, averaged together, would have accurately predicted every election. The model is broken up into "the pocketbook model," "the stock market model," and "the unemployment model.""

 
 
 
CB
6  CB     one month ago
"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," the authors said . "It's about turnout."

The solution to this model is to not allow republicans and conservatives to nullify democratic and liberal enthusiasm . Democrats: Turn out! (There's your 2020 slogan.)

Moreover: IMPEACHMENT looms.

 
 
 
Heartland American
6.1  Heartland American  replied to  CB @6    one month ago

There will be no impeachment...

 
 
 
CB
6.1.1  CB   replied to  Heartland American @6.1    one month ago

Are you 'among the prophets,' too?

 
 
 
squiggy
6.1.2  squiggy  replied to  CB @6.1.1    one month ago

There will be no conviction.

2 Squiggy 27:3

 
 
 
WallyW
6.1.3  WallyW  replied to  squiggy @6.1.2    one month ago
There will be no conviction. 2 Squiggy 27:3

True that!    jrSmiley_81_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
bugsy
6.1.4  bugsy  replied to  squiggy @6.1.2    one month ago
There will be no convictio

The problem with liberals is there HAS to be an impeachment. That is what they ran on, hell, the ONLY thing they ran on in 2018. If they vote to impeach in the House, and the Senate blows them off, they can go back to the loons in their base and say...."Well, we tried. It's not our fault he is still there. Vote for us and we will try again sometime the next 4 years".

 
 
 
CB
6.1.5  CB   replied to  squiggy @6.1.2    one month ago

And a 'book' too! Go Squiggy! Go Squiggy! Hallowed be.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.6  CB   replied to  bugsy @6.1.4    one month ago

Stand for something worthwhile, or simply turn in your country card. This country shall not be "Trump Country." He will get just desserts. You can delude yourselves into thinking differently and guffaw it up in the meantime. Hey look! A rollcoaster >>>>>

 
 
 
†hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh
7  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh    one month ago

How exactly do Democrats think they will win? They have a corrupt drooling senile tard and a field of gender confused wackadoodle unicorns running with the most insane fruitloop platform the greatest fantasy writers couldn't imagine.

MOONBATS....check swing state polling...not even close.

Keep listening to your propaganda media so we can enjoy your election night tears.

Oh and please after you lose have another pink crotch hat march with antisemitic SJW muslim bigots. That was funny as fuck.

The angry beta males and circus freaks were the best comedy I've seen.

 
 
 
CB
7.2  CB   replied to  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh @7    one month ago

"Circus freaks?" Somebody is angry, is it telling—P' Fish?

 
 
 
Heartland American
7.2.1  Heartland American  replied to  CB @7.2    one month ago

That was a most generous description of the debate tonight, media and candidates. 

 
 
 
CB
7.2.2  CB   replied to  Heartland American @7.2.1    one month ago

Some might not think so after spending time with the American Horror Story episode redux that is today's White House. (Family told me I was trembling and screaming in my sleep after the news hour ended.)

Spooky White House!

Your 'administrator' of choice is leaking control over the hearts and minds of his 'lieutenants.' Could it be that Washington, D.C. is starting to self-heal and push many current pus-filled creatures out of its White House and 'Foggy Bottom'?

 
 
 
†hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh
8  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh    one month ago

The democratic debate should have been on comedy central.

Truly amazing.

I've never laughed so hard in my life

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
8.1  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh @8    one month ago

Frankly I thought it was a rerun of the last two. Same line of questions (well except the dump Trump narrative ramp up) same "free stuff" answers. You, or at least I, knew the answers the second the questions were asked. Just some different people answering. Wouldn't have hurt my feelings if they'd have just kept the camera on Tulsi Gabbard.............fine vision while the same blah, blah, blah went on in the background.

 
 
 
It Is ME
9  It Is ME    one month ago

"Soooo ..… Let me be clear." jrSmiley_87_smiley_image.gif

My favorite line of the night ! jrSmiley_79_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
9.1  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  It Is ME @9    one month ago

Always a crowd pleaser....................jrSmiley_13_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
It Is ME
9.1.1  It Is ME  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @9.1    one month ago

To bad it's always Cloudy in Liberal Land though. jrSmiley_80_smiley_image.gif

At least Bernie had the guts to tell everyone he was going to "Tax" the crap out of everyone (as reiterated by the other candidates). The Crowd luvs the idea. jrSmiley_97_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
warmall
10  warmall    one month ago

One mistake in a series of 10 cases? Right? It doesn't look like a reliable oracle.

 
 
 
KDMichigan
10.1  seeder  KDMichigan  replied to  warmall @10    one month ago

Last year the left was touting this same model. It was the 1st time it was wrong. I don't believe it's accuracy myself but thought that they are already giving Trump the nod is Hillaryious.

 
 
 
MrFrost
11  MrFrost    one month ago

I would like to see Mayor Pete win, it would be nice to have a Christian in the WH again. I mean, a Christian with actual morals. 

 
 
 
CB
11.1  CB   replied to  MrFrost @11    4 weeks ago

Mayor Pete is quite interesting, insightful, and forceful. However, we should wish to see more from him in the "twisty" areas of politics. I mean how will he handle national pressure and what does he really know about the history of this nation and international politics to counterbalance his lack of experience at the national level.

 
 
 
Texan1211
11.2  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @11    4 weeks ago
I would like to see Mayor Pete win

Maybe you can pray for that. Let me know how that works out for ya!

 
 
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