Presidential election model that got it wrong once in 40 years predicts Trump 2020 win
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
A presidential election model that incorrectly predicted just one election outcome since 1980 shows President Trump winning reelection in 2020.
Moody’s Analytics released the results of its 2020 prediction model on Tuesday showing Trump winning with 332 electoral votes, an increase over his 2016 win of 306, if voter turnout remains relatively close to the historical average.
The Moody's Analytics model takes into account political dynamics but weighs heavily on economic factors. If the economy remains strong and voter turnout meets the historical average or is low, the model shows Trump winning handily. In the event that voter turnout hits its historical high, the Democratic candidate is expected to win a close race with 279 electoral votes, just over the 270 vote threshold.
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, public finance research director Dan White, and assistant director Bernard Yaros coauthored the study.
"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," the authors said. "It's about turnout."
The model accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980 except for the most recent one in 2016. Afterward, the authors retooled the single model and broke it into three that, averaged together, would have accurately predicted every election. The model is broken up into "the pocketbook model," "the stock market model," and "the unemployment model."
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Does this mean to get ready for 5 more years of crying from the left? I don't think anything can top the 2016 Triggered snowflake breakdown that persist still today.
Democrats might need a new Seal...
There’s nothing new about that seal to them....
With all that you have seen, heard, and witnessed from this clown and you still support him. That passed sad about a mile back.
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I proudly still support our President now more than ever and that our support of him offends secular progressives makes said support all the sweeter. We ❤️ Our great American 🇺🇸 President!
Irrelevant. Flies 'flock' to you know what. Oh and there is this precious jewel:
President Trump has made 13,435 false or misleading
claims over 993 days *
* Some kind of record that is, and to this day we can still count the supporters he has lost on one 'paw.'
I read this article. It also said if turnout is high a Dem will win.
Good for you, I read it too.
I read it, 'three.' It's short!
How closely did you actually read it?
It says:
"In the event that voter turnout hits its historical high, the Democratic candidate is expected to win a close race with 279 electoral votes, just over the 270 vote threshold.
That's why the gop has always favored voter suppression and gerrymandering.
So now you are saying that the GOP is exactly like the Democrats were when Democrats passed Jim Crow laws?
The article actually predicts a Democratic president if the turnout is high. By next November we could be looking at a record turnout. Trump will piss that many people off.
Hmmmmm. Is that what the article really says?
I read it far differently. See post 3.2
"Hillary in a landslide"
"No possible scenario for Trump to win electoral college"
"Mueller report will find Trump colluded with Russia"
Yeah, but the POLLS had Trump losing to Clinton.
That makes ALL the difference in bizarro world!
Polls reflect the POPULAR vote. Who won the POPULAR vote?
Moreover, the Russians, Hillary's stupid server issue, FaceBook, Cambridge Analytical, and a virtual fhit-storm all collided in a fine year 2016. Efforts are underway to make it a better election in 2020.
I tell you this nation should be a bastion of doing things the proper way. What we have here are being defending theft, crookedness, and deceit for deceit sake! What a sad state of play for the country that once thought it could model "good" to other nations. The United States has become the problem we warned others about!
Gee, was there some candidate who didn't quite understand Presidential elections and thought that if you win the popular vote, you win the election?
Virtually every poll also had Trump with no chance at winning the election.
Remember, he had NO path to 270!
But you keep your beloved Abuela's second place, popular vote trophy all nice and shiny for her, y'hear now?
Anybody that believes that they can predict the outcome of the next presidential election this early..is fooling themselves.
(But then again, NT is a social media site...so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised!)
We don't even have a Dem nom yet. Haha
Imo the gist of the article was it depends on Dem turnout. If Dem turnout is low and no excitement, trump will take it, if they can get out the vote and people to the polls they have a good chance.
I am thinking about doing my own poll though. Just two choices. Am I good looking or extremely good looking. : )
Speaking of...are you not watching the clown show now? Who is your favorite candidate?
No point in watching (for me) until they thin the herd.
As much as I know you all hate it, I like Biden.
I like Biden. But you want to know who is the stand-up 'kid' to me? Buttigieg. He is not ready yet (in rank), but this guy is ready for something important. Each time, Mr. Buttigieg speaks who see a guy with "bright eyes." That is, he stands behind his words!
I like him but I have to say...His name is so unfortunate.
His name sounds like "Buddha-Judge". What could be wrong with that, lol.
Okay. Okay. Okay. Just about the time I am getting used to that name and its proper pronunciation. . .you got me in the 'chops' with that one!
HA!
What I observe in Pete B., is a man who is smart and takes himself seriously. Sexuality is not a crutch with him. In this, he makes me proud!
I've got a great come-back but I don't want a CoC.
Butt jokes. Really? What comes next? Toilet humor?
Sympathy? What is that?
I want you to get it all out of your 'system.' Pun intended.
Turnout and the economy...
For democrats only....
Well, you're out of SOL. Democrats love 'em some "Buttigieg." (Winkie.)
Turnout in 2016 was higher than in 2012.
Trump won with a higher turnout than what got Obama elected in 2012.
Democrats simply do not always win when turnout is higher, despite what some claim.
They started keeping turnout statistics for presidential elections in 1828. There have been 47 elections since then , 2016 had the 33rd highest turnout of the 47. Historically speaking , it was low turnout.
The assumption is made that high turnout will help the Democrat because there are more Democrats than there are Republicans.
I agree on both counts.
He seems the only sane Democrat with a chance at the nomination.
My point, which obviously was missed, is that a Democrat won in 2012 with an even lower turnout which got Trump elected.
Do you believe that 2020 will be a record turnout, as needed according to the model predicting a Democratic win IF there is a record turnout?
Mayor Pete Buttigieg will grow in the polls. After all, the television talking heads just took exceptional notice of him in the CNN/NYT Debate tonight.
If it had never been wrong, that would be another matter. If it was wrong once, it can be again.
Looks like the authors fixed that little mistake.
"The model accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980 except for the most recent one in 2016. Afterward, the authors retooled the single model and broke it into three that, averaged together, would have accurately predicted every election. The model is broken up into "the pocketbook model," "the stock market model," and "the unemployment model.""
The solution to this model is to not allow republicans and conservatives to nullify democratic and liberal enthusiasm . Democrats: Turn out! (There's your 2020 slogan.)
Moreover: IMPEACHMENT looms.
There will be no impeachment...
Are you 'among the prophets,' too?
The problem with liberals is there HAS to be an impeachment. That is what they ran on, hell, the ONLY thing they ran on in 2018. If they vote to impeach in the House, and the Senate blows them off, they can go back to the loons in their base and say...."Well, we tried. It's not our fault he is still there. Vote for us and we will try again sometime the next 4 years".
And a 'book' too! Go Squiggy! Go Squiggy! Hallowed be.
Stand for something worthwhile, or simply turn in your country card. This country shall not be "Trump Country." He will get just desserts. You can delude yourselves into thinking differently and guffaw it up in the meantime. Hey look! A rollcoaster >>>>>
"Soooo ..… Let me be clear."
My favorite line of the night !
Always a crowd pleaser....................
To bad it's always Cloudy in Liberal Land though.
At least Bernie had the guts to tell everyone he was going to "Tax" the crap out of everyone (as reiterated by the other candidates). The Crowd luvs the idea.
One mistake in a series of 10 cases? Right? It doesn't look like a reliable oracle.
Last year the left was touting this same model. It was the 1st time it was wrong. I don't believe it's accuracy myself but thought that they are already giving Trump the nod is Hillaryious.
I would like to see Mayor Pete win, it would be nice to have a Christian in the WH again. I mean, a Christian with actual morals.
Mayor Pete is quite interesting, insightful, and forceful. However, we should wish to see more from him in the "twisty" areas of politics. I mean how will he handle national pressure and what does he really know about the history of this nation and international politics to counterbalance his lack of experience at the national level.
Maybe you can pray for that. Let me know how that works out for ya!