How Russia's war in Ukraine came back to bite Putin at home
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The currency is nosediving, the market is in panic, and frantic residents are trying to withdraw savings from increasingly barren ATMs. Meanwhile, anti-war protesters are joined by members of the billionaire elite who have broken rank against their embattled president. There are questions about the country's capacity to survive the crisis — and what it may do next in desperation.
This is not Ukraine under siege, but rather the blowback for its invader, Russia.
When President Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine, few predicted the conflict would have such immediate consequences for the Kremlin and the Russian people.
Not only has it drawn the anticipated barrage of Western sanctions; it has also unleashed boycotts of Russian sponsors by Western businesses, countries' closing their airspace to Russian planes and international sports and entertainment events' freezing out Moscow's competitors.
Almost overnight Russia has become a pariah.
The ruble, its currency, hit record lows after it lost 40 percent of its value Monday. And shares plummeted so dramatically that the Moscow Exchange stock market ceased trading for three days straight. There is even a chance Russia could default on its debt for the first time since 1998, the Institute of International Finance, a banking lobby group, has warned.
In Moscow, there were telltale signs that Putin's assault was harming his own people. Lines snaked outside ATMs as people tried to withdraw dollars to prevent their savings' diminishing. And there was disruption on the subway as contactless payments systems went offline and more people resorted to old-fashioned paper tickets that they had not used in years.
"Things are becoming more expensive already," said Marina Vinogradova, 39, a musician living in Moscow who was having a coffee in one of the city's malls this week. "Everyone is scared. We don't know what's going to happen."
She said her husband was among those unable to withdraw dollars. A friend's house purchase fell through because savings no longer had the same value as just weeks earlier, she added.
And after the U.S. and Europe agreed to cut off Russian banks from the crucial SWIFT system, which handles international bank payments, some Moscow hotels requested that customers settle bills early in case their credit card systems no longer worked.
Demonstrations, like this one Tuesday in St. Petersburg, have been met with force by Russian law enforcement agencies.Dmitri Lovetsky / AP
It is hard to get an accurate sense of the weight of public opinion in Russia as a result of Putin's yearslong crackdown on dissent. But even in a county that routinely stifles political opposition and free speech and where the media is dominated by state-run Kremlin mouthpiece TV stations, signs of disquiet are clear.
A survey by the radio station Echo Moscow found that even in this information-restrictive environment, more than a fifth of Russians said they were against the war. On Tuesday, the station was taken off the air for being too critical of the Kremlin, its editor told The Associated Press. The office of Russia's prosecutor general accused it of spreading "false information" about the conflict.
Protests are even further curtailed right now under the guise of Covid-19 safety. But even so, countless thousands of people across the country have protested the invasion. Of those, almost 6,500 people have been arrested since Thursday, according to the Moscow-based independent human rights group OVD-Info.
It is undeniable that there is real opposition to Putin's invasion. A Change.org petition started by the veteran human rights campaigner Lev Ponomarev had topped 1.1 million signatures by early Wednesday.
Meanwhile, 6,000 medical workers, 3,400 architects and engineers and 500 teachers have signed separate open letters against the war — a rare mass statement of defiance in a country where merely criticizing the government can lead to arrest.
In an attempt to control the narrative, state-run TV has downplayed the war as a minor "operation" confined to Ukraine's Russian-speaking east. And the government's communications regulator said it is limiting access to Facebook, accusing the platform of "censoring" Russian media.
Nevertheless, opposition has reverberated into the upper echelons of Russian society: Russian celebrities and public figures have denounced the war; Elena Kovalskaya, the director of a state-run theater in Moscow, quit her job because she did not want to continue receiving a salary from a "killer" like Putin; and Garage, a prominent contemporary art museum in Moscow, said it was closing until "the human and political tragedy" in Ukraine was stopped.
President Joe Biden dedicated much of the first section of his State of the Union speech Tuesday to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Win McNamee / AFP - Getty Images
But perhaps even more surprising is the intervention by several Russian oligarchs — billionaires who got rich in the carve-up of the Russian state in the early 1990s, many of whom have links to Putin.
Mikhail Fridman, a co-founder of Russia's Alfa-Bank, who, according to Forbes, is worth almost $13 billion, was one of those sanctioned this week by the European Union, which described him as "a top Russian financier and enabler of Putin's inner circle."
Fridman, who was born in Ukraine and has denied the allegations as "defamatory," moved Monday to distance himself from Putin's war. In an open letter to staff members, he said that "war can never be the answer" and that "this crisis will cost lives and damage two nations who have been brothers for hundreds of years."
The message from the West has been clear: The days of Russian oligarchs' orbiting Putin and criticizing the West — while mooring their yachts in Monaco, partying in London and Paris and educating their children at elite Western schools — are over.
In his State of the Union address Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden warned the oligarchs, "We are coming for your ill-begotten gains."
All of that contrasts with the mood before the invasion, when former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now a top security official, dismissed the West's "woeful sanctions" as "political impotence."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged Wednesday that "the Russian economy is now experiencing a serious blow" but maintained that "there is a margin of safety. We will stand on our feet."
He told reporters that "support for Putin's actions is very high" and that "this gives strength to the president."
In reality, Putin faces pressure at home and abroad. With the invasion going slower than expected, he has ramped up his bombing against Ukrainian civilians and threatened the West with nuclear war — which could engulf many of Russia's 144 million people, too.
"F--- Putin, f--- the war," one man, age 31, said in Moscow this week.
"We are really afraid that he can start a nuclear war," he said, declining to give his name because of fear of reprisals by Russia's security services. "I think he can because he's crazy."
The Associated Press contributed.
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Good.
And as I saw in an editorial somewhere yesterday, this shouldn't end with the war. Russia should pay to rebuild the cities it has destroyed. Russia needs to provide families who have lost their homes and belongings with new homes. The rest of the world shouldn't have to pick up the pieces for Ukraine while Russia returns to business as usual.
Needs to?
Just curious-- what do you think that supposed need of theirs is based upon?
... full and total reparations and then make vlad return to the pre-invasion borders in the east and return crimea before any sanctions are lifted. let the russian separatists in ukraine separate to f'n russia.
Understatement of the year: "I think Putin has made a mistake."
Firing on a yuge Ukrainian power plant ( which may release radioactivity that might reach Russia) is another mistake ....
One of the 10 biggest reactors in the world yet. I just watched the news here show fires around it, and it was questionable whether the surrounding Russian soldiers will let firefighters in to deal with it.
At first they didn't-- but I haven't followed latest onthat so perhaps they eventually did.
The fire is out now anyway.
[Deleted]
[Deleted. Not so much taunting as harassing another member of NT.]
I dont think most Americans normally ever give a thought to Russia (I dont think most Americans ever give a thought to China either) but in the instance of constant front page news about Russia some notice will be paid by American news consumers. This invasion has been a public relations disaster for Russia and the Russian government and military. Was it worth it? Putin may be the only person on earth who thinks so.
WTF?
I'm just wondering where you get your information about public opinion in Russia?
Putin may be the only person on Earth who thinks it was worth it?
(Listen John, I have a bridge I want to sell you-- great bridge, excellent deal if you act immediately!)
You want to turn your own people against you? Arrest a 77 year old woman who survived Siege of Leningrad and throw kids in jail for bringing flowers to the Ukrainian embassy.
But I wonder how many Russians will even find out about it?
And how can that turn Russian public opinion against Putin-- if the vast majority of Russians can't know about it?
SMH....
1/5 of the people are against the war? I would have thought that would be higher.
That is what happens when polls only use Trumpturds to do gather data.
It is probably much higher they just don't want to be arrested.
And the information they are using to determine their opinion comes straight from the government.
Yep and is probably seriously deflated...
Here's something that might (or might not) be interesting...
Than what makes you think that what they did will turn their people against Putin-- if what they know comes from the government? Do you really think that something they don't know about will influence them? (Or perhaps you believe that the government will let these sorts of stories be madepublic?):
You want to turn your own people against you? Arrest a 77 year old woman who survived Siege of Leningrad and throw kids in jail for bringing flowers to the Ukrainian embassy.
Your comments are not clear.
Either the Russian government is suppressing the truth and putting out their own (Lying) version-- or there is a free press in Russia-- which do you think it is?
You're assuming that the Russian people even know what's going on.
The vast majority of them have no idea what the actual facts are, because Putin is calling accusations vs: Russia "Fake News".
(He's acting just like Trump did in terms of consistent lying. But the difference is that at least in the U.S. we have media outlets that report the facts-- that is not the case in Russia. And in Putin's Russia, protestors are arrested and charged with "terrorism").
Putin is a "Trump on steroids".
Morning..last I heard one ruble was worth less than one US cent... can't get much lower that...may as well use it for dunny (toilet) paper...
Toilet paper? Do they have Costco in Russia?
Yep .0091 Dollars and still falling, Means a 1,000 ru is worth 9.00 dollars, just two days ago it was 12.00 dollars that's a 25% loss in valuation in two days...
Inflation in Russia has to be astronomical...
Though these are certainly not funny times, I did hear a funny joke as told by a Russian this morning:
Q: What is the difference between a ruble and a dollar?
A: A dollar.
Morning split .
Never lose your sense of humour no matter how grim things get..
Lose that and we are all stuffed...
Typical russian disinformation campaign continues, maybe for russian consumption?
.
Did you know that the first stage of the American Atlas V rocket is actually a russian RD-180?
Made in russia and used by United Launch Alliance to launch the Atlas from Vandenberg AFB and Cape Canaveral
We have used as many as 585 and plan to use 29 more.
The russians have announced that they will never sell another RD-180 to America.
The ironic thing is that their only customer is the ULA
The ULA announced last August that they had stopped buying RF-180
as the Atlas is being retired in favor of the Vulcan heavy lift rocket.
ULA stops selling its centerpiece Atlas V, setting path for the rocket’s retirement - The Verge
I was hearing that their deliveries to the ISS have been curtailed severely as well cause of the ability we now have to do it automatically now... But the ISS is on it's last legs anyways, they are already planning it's replacement...
The russian ass in charge of their Space Agency threatened to crash the ISS intothe US or India,
whoever pisses him off the most.
Those people are nutz.
Kasparav is right.
No argument from me my friend...
Yes-- for Russian consumption.
But also for foreign consumption.
Putin's government is constantly railing against "Fake News"....and insisting his version of events (which are lies) is fact.
My question is What's next with the sanctions? Assume that Ukraine will eventually surrender or a cease fire is somehow achieved do the sanctions against Russia suddenly disappear? Being charged with war crimes will never amount to getting him out of power. If we take sanctions off then it emboldens Putin to do it to other non nato countries (and maybe nato countries) only he will have to be more brutal and do it more quickly. If the sanctions remain it will continue to squeeze the Russian people. This gives the Russian people a few choices, live in squalor, oust Putin and hope for help from the same people that instituted the sanctions or follow Putin down the rabbit hole and support Putin, blame and act out against all us "Nazis" that are forcing Putin to act like an animal. Of course that is assuming Putin does not go for the nuclear option. It seems getting information to the Russian people about the truth behind their leader is more important than ever but that may be more and more difficult since I hear the last independent TV station has closed it's doors and there has never been much of a free flow of information in Russia anyway.
I hope the powers that be are thinking about this because the fighting will eventually stop.
Where is the old CIA that would have taken care of this problem?
What makes you think that sanctions will have even the slightest effect on Putin's actions?
That they somehow will make him change course? That they will make him change his goals (or actions?).
Putin is finding out that his rich friends will abandon him once he messed with their money. They can't even flee as no other country will let them in.
No other country?
What makes you so sure of that?
I should have been clearer, apologies.....no respectable country.