Can We Live to 200? Here's a Roadmap - The New York Times
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
By Nicholas St. Fleur, Chloe Williams and Charlie WoodApril 27, 2021
- 105
In the last century, the average human life expectancy doubled. Here's a roadmap to the innovations that could help us do it again — maybe.
Can We Live to 200?
In the last century, the average human life expectancy doubled. Here's a roadmap to the innovations that could help us do it again — maybe.
By Nicholas St. Fleur, Chloe Williams and Charlie Wood
Related: How Long Can We Live?
Possible in 0-5 years
Life-Extending SupplementsA compound known as alpha-ketoglutarate extends life span in female mice and health span in mice of both sexes. A trial is testing its effects on markers of aging in humans.
Healthful Living Through ChemistryObesity can take more than 10 years off life expectancy, and semaglutide, a drug that could soon be approved for weight loss, is about twice as effective as current medications.
Superpowering the Cell's GeneratorElamipretide, a drug that helps restore function to flagging mitochondria, the cells' power plants, is awaiting F.D.A. approval as a treatment for a rare mitochondrial disease.
The Normalizing of MasksMaintaining widespread mask-wearing practices could result in a long-lasting drop in influenza deaths, which numbered 12,000 to 61,000 annually in the United States in the decade before the pandemic.
Supercentenarian SequencingFurther decoding and analyzing the genomes of those who live to be 110 or older could provide useful insights into what accounts for their longevity.
Safer Childbirth for Black MothersA bill in Congress targets, in part, a disparity in which Black women in the United States are about three times as likely as white women to die during the period including pregnancy, childbirth and the first year postpartum.
Mighty MiniproteinsA compound similar to MOTS-c — a micropeptide that boosts physical fitness, prevents obesity and increases healthy life span in mice — is in human trials and could be approved within four years.
Priming Cancer ImmunityNew ways to mobilize the immune system against cancer and fresh combinations of existing treatments will bring the immunotherapy revolution to a wider variety of hard-to-treat cancers.
Shining a Light on Alzheimer'sDevices that stimulate the brain using specific frequencies of light and sound might help treat Alzheimer's disease and other causes of cognitive decline.
mRNA Vaccines Come for CancersVaccines that exploit mRNA technology, which found proof of concept with Covid-19, are in the pipeline for melanomas, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, breast cancer and more.
Reducing Child Pneumonia DeathsRespiratory infections kill some 750,000 children under age 5 each year. The W.H.O. and UNICEF hope to reach their target of fewer than three deaths per 1,000 births through vaccination, breastfeeding, access to quality health care and reduced pollution.
Possible in 5-10 years
Every Car a BreathalyzerA bill in Congress that would put drunken-driver-detection technology, sometimes known as ignition interlocks, in all new cars sold in the United States could prevent some 10,000 deaths annually.
Antismoking SignalsA third of the world is not yet protected by the kinds of tobacco-control measures that avert millions of deaths every year — and the U.N. wants to change that by 2030.
CRISPR-Based CuresClinical trials are currently using the gene-editing tool to treat blood disorders, cancer and an inherited form of blindness; a heart-disease intervention is being researched.
Zapping ObesityDeep-brain stimulation to reduce the urge to eat and to boost metabolism could be approved to treat a subset of obese people who don't respond to other interventions.
Exercise in a PillDrugs that mimic some benefits of exercise are in development for conditions like acute kidney injury and Duchenne muscular dystrophy; someday they might help delay the effects of aging.
The Secret of Young BloodBased on studies in mice, treatments that mimic the chemistry of young blood — by diluting plasma or regulating other factors — could extend healthy life, maybe by decades.
A Diabetes Drug to Treat AgingMetformin already helps millions manage their Type 2 diabetes and alleviate risk from cancer, heart disease and even Covid-19. A clinical trial is testing whether it could lower mortality for all.
Oral Rehydration Therapy With ZincHitting U.N. targets for the use of the therapy could help prevent diarrhea deaths in children under 5 — which currently number around 500,000 annually — by 2030.
A Cure for H.I.V.?A "functional cure" for H.I.V., suppressing the virus without the need for continuing treatment, could be F.D.A.-approved within 10 years.
Advancing EducationHigher levels of education correlate with longer life spans. By 2030, the U.N. aims to ensure that all children worldwide complete primary and secondary school.
Individually Cultivated MicrobiomesPersonalized medications and diets could optimize the populations of microbes in our gut, which change as we age and are linked with nearly every system in the body.
At-Home Stool ScreeningThe C.D.C. is helping efforts to boost to 80 percent the proportion of eligible Americans who are screened for colorectal cancer through at-home stool tests and other tools by 2030.
Ending Childhood MalnutritionThe U.N.'s goal to end childhood malnutrition by 2030 could save the lives of more than two million children younger than 5 per year.
Possible in 10-20 years
Designer GenesGene therapies may allow us to tweak genes or regulate their expression to prevent or treat common types of cancer, autoimmune diseases, diabetes and neurological conditions.
Empowering MidwivesA study in The Lancet Global Health found that substantially broadening the services midwives can provide in developing countries could avert 41 percent of maternal deaths, 39 percent of neonatal deaths and 26 percent of stillbirths.
Ending TuberculosisTuberculosis killed about 1.4 million people in 2019. By 2035, the W.H.O. aims to reduce TB deaths by 95 percent.
Treatment for Alzheimer'sResearchers are exploring multiple approaches to a drug that could prevent or sharply slow the progression of Alzheimer's, which killed more than 120,000 Americans in 2019.
Stopping the Epigenetic ClockDrug cocktails in development could slow or reverse epigenetic clocks, which are molecular changes to DNA that influence what genes become expressed as you age.
Effective Malaria VaccinesThe only malaria vaccine available today requires four shots to achieve at best 40 percent protection; new jabs in clinical trials, and mRNA vaccines further down the road, could do much better.
Lab-Grown OrgansBladders cultivated in labs already reside in humans. Once researchers figure out how to recreate the complex system of blood vessels in other organs — like kidneys, livers and hearts — many more could follow.
Banishing Old CellsA new class of drugs might be able to kill or neutralize "senescent" cells, which emit molecules that hasten inflammation and other hallmarks of cellular decline.
An Antifungal Drug Against AgingRapamycin, an antifungal first approved to prevent organ rejection, has stretched the lives of mice by more than a third. A trial is testing its effects in 350 dogs; human trials are being scheduled.
Diverse Clinical TrialsAfrican-Americans are historically underrepresented in clinical trials. Fixing that disparity, alongside other health initiatives, could help narrow the life-expectancy gap between white and Black Americans (78 years vs. 72 years).
Possible in 20-50 years
Avoiding Auto Accidents With AutomationWorldwide implementation of self-driving cars could reduce deaths from car accidents by an estimated 585,000 lives over a 10-year period.
No More Auto SmogWidespread transition to electric vehicles in the United States could improve air quality enough to save 6,300 lives annually by 2050.
Powering Down Fossil-Fuel UseResearchers estimate that addressing air pollution by eliminating fossil-fuel emissions and instead relying on wind, solar, nuclear and other low-emission energy sources, could raise life expectancy by 1.1 years.
Eradication of MalariaBetter ways to kill mosquitoes and mosquito larvae, more access to rapid tests and new artemisinin treatment therapies could end malaria — and the 400,000 deaths it causes each year — within decades.
Poverty ReductionEven if the U.N.'s goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 is increasingly unlikely, ongoing economic growth — combined with stronger global tax laws — would help to extend life spans.
Possible in 50-100 years
Robot SurgeonsAdvanced robotic surgeons could suture wounds, remove tumors and repair tissue with unparalleled precision, reducing fatalities from medical errors.
Rise of the NanobotsOne day, nano-scale robots inside our bodies could construct sensors and other devices that would help dissolve blood clots, fight cancer and deliver precisely targeted drugs.
Cellular Reprogramming Rewinds the ClockTriggering a handful of genes can make cells young again and rejuvenate organs. With a carefully timed injection, researchers recently restored sight to mice with damaged optic nerves.
A Clinic in Your HomeAdvanced robotics and A.I. enable the ultimate personalized medical station: After morning saliva and urine checks, a home medical appliance designs and prints medicine to optimize your metabolism and microbiome for that day.
Illustration by Christoph Niemann.
Additional design and development by Jacky Myint.
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"Every Car a Breathalyzer
A bill in Congress that would put drunken-driver-detection technology, sometimes known as ignition interlocks, in all new cars sold in the United States could prevent some 10,000 deaths annually." A stupid Idea and it would be a huge waste of money. Within six weeks there'd be a hundred different devices for sale on Ebay that defeat your onboard Breathalyzer so the drunks wouldn't be affected at all. I don't drink and drive so it's just time and money to me and I don't want to spend 30-60 seconds waiting in the cold before I can start my car and I don't want to pay for crap I don't need. I have a friend who has a newer Harley with a computer screen and he has to turn the key on then wait about one minute for it to load before he can start the bike and I'll tell you it's the longest minute you've ever experienced when all the other bikes are warming up and your always the last person ready to go.
Definitely a waste of money for me as I am diabetic and when my keytone levels are elevated it will provide a false positive result even if I have not been drinking anything.
The only way things like that would be effective is if everyone's brains were reprogrammed to be less selfish and more concerned about everyone else's well-being. I think that's a non-starter in western culture.
With the state of the US (and the world) today do we really want (or deserve) to live longer?
We need to make room for the young by dying. If we lived to be 200 what would the retirement age be? 160? Screw that! They should concentrate on making life better not longer.
OMG, the only two comments to this are 1. off-topic and 2. bleak. I thought this was really interesting. Oh well.
Interesting? Sure. But I know I don't want to live to 200. I don't even want to live to a 100. I'm looking forward to retirement and one lives to 200 one will have to keep working until 175. No thanks
Not if one is smart and sucessfully plans for their financial future....
Food thing I'm well endowed financially, too...
Many people will say life sucks, but that is before they consider the alternative.
Death is inevitable. There's no need to be afraid of it
When I was waiting to have a heart procedure done there was a point in the room where they get you ready when I started to struggle to breathe. I mean really struggle to the point that it became an all hands on deck for the medical personnel in the area.
Nothing compares in terror to the feeling of not being able to draw a breath.
Yes, we will all die , but unless you go in your sleep it will not be pleasant.
You've got that right, last year I was hospitalized following major abdominal surgery (aka the mother of all surgeries) which resulted in me developing pleural effusian. When fluids surrounding my lungs shifted upon me trying to sit up or stand up, I had one lung collapse and the other partially collapsed. It gave me a whole new perspective on water boarding.
When I was really struggling to breathe for a few minutes, it was worse than I ever imagined it could be. I guess you have to be there like we were.
I have read that some terminal COVID-19 patients suffer from acute respiratory distress with the accompanying sensation of suffocation and panic from the falling oxygen level in their blood. A terrible and unnecessary way to check-out.
My experience caused me to completely re-evaluate my thoughts on medical care and how to pay for it. If i was a blue collar worker in OK instead of someone with both Midicare and supplemental insurance, I would be dead now and my wife would have unpaid medical bills.
I was very fortunate to have had a Johns Hopkins medical team and the ability to pay for it without any worries.
Good that you and John made it and are still with us
Actually based on some of the comments here, its seems that many are more afraid of life.
My mom just turned 100 last month and she's not exactly living her best life. She repeatedly says she's ready to go. At this point she can't walk, her back aches, her hearing is shot and all her friends and siblings are long gone. I feel so bad for her.
The quality of life matters. This is saying that our quality will also improve.
That being said, I am sorry about your mom.
I looked through the article and it is interesting.
No doubt many of these developments will be put in practice and human beings will live longer, maybe a lot longer.
As far as working until one is 175, that wont happen because when that time comes around no one will be working. Robots will do everything related to "work" and people will follow their dreams. The robot owners will have all the money, but the rest of the people will have leisure.
Personally, I want to live longer. There is so much to do, and not enough time.
People will have to work longer and machines were always touted as the end of work. They were not. They just changed how we work.
Get back to us when you have.
So far. That will change.
How are we going to pay for all this leisure if we don't have jobs?
Yeah... I'm that guy some days. I'm clinically diagnosed with long-term low grade depression. I would be happier if science was working on making our quality of life better before expanding it. It is interesting in the concepts and idea, but there are repercussions of more people living longer and not a lot of them are great if you aren't already a part of the upper class.
same here. I would rather have a shorter life if it means I don't have to take medication for heartburn, depression, urinary incontinence, high blood pressure, and diabetes. I'm a mess!
Getting old isn't for sissies, that's for sure.
Amen
Yeah... I'm taking 3 different diabetes meds! I have an appointment to see a VA ears, nose, throat specialist in 2 weeks to see if they can fix why I'm completely stuffed up and miserable every winter from November to April.
I never not in pain somewhere. Get some of those nano-bots to fix that shit! LOL!
Perhaps if I felt as good as I did in my 20s to 30s and not a bag of ass all the time I'd have a different perspective? Hahahaha!
When I was younger i was a real Science nerd.
Found it fascinating-- in fact i still do.
But over time I've come to realize that its pointless to depend on externals (including "Scince") to make me happy. So instead I've taken what is perhaps a very controversial position-- I've decided to make my life better myself!
(So far so good
)
I'll be lucky to make it to 100, and I'm already 85 and still walking and talking.
I actually see you making it to 100.
From your lips to God's ears.
Actually its a topic that's fascinated me for some time.
(Recently bought "Ending Aging" by Aubrey de Grey)....
You know what they say:
Great minds think alike.
(But tiny minds? Not so much...)
OMG, the only two comments to this are 1. off-topic and 2. bleak. I thought this was really interesting. Oh well.
Having been on social media sites for many years, I have become used to the prevalent negativity & whining long ago.
So, being the rebel that I am (yes, I'm a a typical ENTP )-- I would like to present an opposing POV,, a quote that IMO seems appropriate here. Yes-- I am consciously choosing to let some positivity "live rent free inside my head".
GEORGE BERNARD SHAW - A SPLENDED TORCH
This is the true joy in life, the being used for a purpose recognized by yourself as a mighty one; the being a force of nature instead of a feverish, selfish little clod of ailments and grievances complaining that the world will not devote itself to making you happy.
I am of the opinion that my life belongs to the whole community, and as long as I live it is my privilege to do for it whatever I can. I want to be thoroughly used up when I die, for the harder I work the more I live. I rejoice in life for its own sake.
Life is no "brief candle" for me. It is a sort of splendid torch which I have got hold of for the moment, and I want to make it burn as brightly as possible before handing it on to future generations.
--George Bernard Shaw
Life starts getting boring around 70, add on a 130 years of ennui? Yay/S
Why should life be boring at 70? Do something new. The point of the article is that we live longer healthier lives.
Why are you taking my comment so seriously? That's boring.
I see retirement as the chance to do something I've wanted to do but couldn't because of work. I want to volunteer at the local library and animal shelter. And I want to start doing some gardening. Actually, I'm going to try and grow tomatoes this year
Have you read some of the comments here? I think they are pretty serious. And without looking at your face, IDK that you are kidding.
Good for you Trout!
I thought you hired me to do that.
I suggest you plant at least 1 cherry tomato plant. Lowes (in southwest Missouri) has a cherry tomato called "Midnight Snack". I have had a lot of success with them for the past two years. They taste more savory than sweet. Plant a basil plant or two nearby. Good luck. I don't enjoy gardening, but do enjoy the okra, squash, corn, cantaloupe and occasional watermelon. Also, the butterflies and birds that flit around the zinnias and sunflowers in the garden.
At 65, I have no major health issues that I know of (other than the excess 30 pounds I've gained in the last 8 years). My last health check-up was in 2000.
I quit smoking cigarettes 8 years ago, cook semi-healthy, avoid junk food and take the occasional multi-vitamin.
I am fairly ambivalent about life. There is gratitude that I lived in the time period that I have lived. I am thankful for most of the experiences that I have had and the majority of people that I have come in contact with. When my life ends, it ends - hopefully, as quietly as it began.
I don't really like chery tomatoes. I like big, beefy tomatoes that I can make a sandwich with with a couple of slices of hot onion and butter.
We grow herbs on the deck most every year. Basil is definitely one because we like to make our own Italian seasoning so we also grow oregano, rosemary, thyme, and sage.
And catnip
Me, too.
So do the June bugs and Japanese beetles who eat more than their fair share of my heirloom tomatoes. LOL!
Sweet 100 cherry tomatoes are good and you can graze on them when you are in the garden
Well, IMO that's more than a bit of over-generalization.
I'm over 70, and the last few years my life has been more exicitng than its ever been.
But then again, I've always made the (perhaps un-warrented?) assumption that I have free will..
At the age of 69 I made a sea change in my life, moved to the other side of the world to a totally different culture, experienced the joy of teaching young people which I had never done before, married a beautiful woman of a different race and religion, have seen and experienced many of the wonders and traditions of a 5000 year old culture and civilization, and am now, 15 1/2 years after my move, more relaxed than I have been since I was a child. Even if you are joking that life ends at 70, I can guarantee you that it can start all over again if you let it.
I'm all for it and I want it for my dog too
That's what we need longer living dogs, my poor Duke died at 14 20 years ago and I still miss him. It should be a treatment you give a good dog at four years old so we don't have to put up with a stupid dog for forty years.
I would think that some scientists would be working on breeding dogs (and other pets) to produce offspring that are basically the same as their parents, but live much longer...?
(Recent advances in Genetics have been pretty amazing...)
My poor 19 year old cat is in the final stage right now. His organs are shutting down, he has no appetite so he hast eaten in days, can barely lift his head and can no longer stand to use the litter box. I need to take him to the vet to be euthanized but I can’t because my wife and I both have a fresh case of Covid. Some day that will be me. 200? No thanks! Besides, Putin may see to it that nobody is alive by this time next year.
I'm so sorry about your fur baby
I feel so bad for him. It occurred to me that when a cat loses their appetite they likely have no way to make the connection that stopping eating is what is making them feel so miserable. To them eating is just something they lost interest in, no more significant than playing with cat toys or hunting birds.
I think they are in so much pain that they don't feel like eating. And I do think they lose the will to live. When my beloved Missy passed away she stopped eating and I knew then that it was time
I'm so sorry about your kitty. I know how much you love him and how hard it is to see him suffer. I never had a kitty that lived past 13. I am hoping to break that with Wally since he is already 11.
Cat appetite is a strange thing. Cat's can't go too long without eating, unlike other animals. They start to digest their liver and then it becomes a cycle, since that makes them nauseous. That's why it's important to make sure a noneating cat is getting nutrients in some way or another.
My dog got sick and died a few years ago. I firmly believe that he had no idea what was happening to him, other than maybe a vague instinct. Animals suffer physical pain for sure, but they cant anticipate their demise the way a human being can. They just go minute by minute.
My Stubby turned 18 this past fall. That's the longest I've ever had a cat. But I can see his slow decline. But I'm not ready to let him go yet. He still eats and bitches at me so he's still relatively healthy
He literally just passed. I was on a conference call and had to cut out early when I looked down and saw he had peed on the floor. Then I realized he just released. 19 is not bad for a cat though. He had a wonderful life.
So sorry for your loss
Good for you Charger. And I want Wally to live along with me, too!
The way Wally has overcome his own personal obstacles, he'll outlive all of us!
I know... He's had such a hard life. It shows all over his furry face.
Anoon Perrie... determined and dignified...feed me slave and I will live forever!!
I don't want to live longer. Right now, I just want my clock to run out.
To each their own.
I have lived a long and a sometimes pretty good life and believe that we all have a limited time on earth.
Paula, this is not saying that we would be immortal, just that we can extend our lives and with quality of life. I know it's something I would want for me and my children and so on.
Sorry to hear you have such a miserable life-- hope that somehow it improves!
As long as a cure for wrinkles, turkey-waddle, and ass-flab are part of the medical perks, I might consider hanging around longer.
200? F that. I'm only a third of the way there and already could use a complete rebuild.
Life Extension is the future of medical advancement.
Actually many people would be surprised how many people are working on it.
The entire field of Genomics is taking off...
(Much of it is working on genetic modification to cure of orevent horrendous diseases...but some is working on specifically attempts to increase lifespan and being healthier over times as well).
I'm not surprised. People will pay $$$ for it...
I'm not surprised. People will pay $$$ for it..
As I may have mentioned, when I first saw The Big Bang theory on TV I was surprised-- unlike most situation comedies most of the actors portrayed intelligent characters! But more surprising-- these were the kinds of kids I had as friends growing up. Total Geeks (or "nerds'...depending on your age)...I was the sort of kid that walked around wearing a plaid shirts with clashing plaid ties, pocket protectors-- and a slide rule on my belt. I identified with the main characters ("ceptin Penny).
I was obsessed with Science.
And this may come as a total surprise to you-- but many of the Scientists working very hard for the betterment of humanity are not primarily obsessed with money-- in fact many of them could care less about money!
An Antifungal Drug Against Aging
Rapamycin, an antifungal first approved to prevent organ rejection, has stretched the lives of mice by more than a third. A trial is testing its effects in 350 dogs; human trials are being scheduled.
A while back I came across some information about mTOR ("TOR" = "Target of Rapamycin", tIIRC the "m" refers to effects specifically on mammals). Some very interesting (and at first counter-intuitive) effects were noted raising all sorts of possibilities for further research.
Its a bit off topic here so I won't go into a long rant about it..suffice to say there are many possibilites raised by some of the research findings...ongoing....
I have so much stuff to do, want to do and stuff I have put off, started, half finished, things I'll get to one day, things I neeed something else to happen before I can do ect ect I could be busy forever