Republicans, Don't Be Fooled By Fraudulent Left-Wing Polls
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Stories about dropping Republican poll numbers are so predictable among the legacy media that they have become almost as much of a fall tradition as pumpkin carving and the changing of the leaves. Left-leaning journalists take particular delight in using flawed polling to construct distorted narratives to discourage conservative voters from showing up at the voting booth.
Despite recent polling that indicates Republicans are likely to retake the House and have a good shot at retaking the Senate, Democrats and their allies in the legacy media continue to advance phony arguments to suggest Republicans are disadvantaged by things voters don't care about. For instance, the corporate media continues to relentlessly insist that abortion will "shape the midterms," despite that issue ranking lower in importance to voters than others such as inflation, crime, and immigration.
This is psychological warfare. It's part of a broad media strategy to use bad polling to skew the outcome of the midterm elections and suppress conservative voter turnout — and we shouldn't fall for it.
This comes as no surprise. The Democrats have been weaponizing polling for years, so now both political acolytes and campaigns know there are two distinct kinds of polls: those used internally by campaigns, with a stringent methodology to produce accurate results, and those designed as propaganda for public consumption.
The truth is, many polls aren't worth the paper they're printed on. Often, unscrupulous firms and candidates put their thumbs on the scales, intentionally using bad polling methodology to get a predetermined outcome. Some media outlets also only cover polls that fit their narrative. Many "mainstream" pollsters oversample college-educated voters and Democrats. But whatever the cause or intent, the pattern is clear.
Just look at 2016, when countless public polls confidently projected Hillary Clinton's election triumph over Donald Trump — right up until the time election returns started rolling in. Not a single media-sponsored poll called Trump's Wisconsin victory in the two months before the election, and only one called Michigan correctly. After promising to examine what went wrong, pollsters managed to underestimate Republican strength again in 2018, when the media's much-hoped-for "blue wave" turned out to be little more than a blue splash.
The pollsters somehow did even worse in 2020. As late as September, Quinnipiac polling showed incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina tied with challenger Jaime Harrison. But on Election Day, Graham ran away with a 10-point margin of victory. The FiveThirtyEight average, which aggregates polls, projected incumbent Sens. Susan Collins and Joni Ernst would lose their seats by about 2 points. Instead, Collins won by 8.6 points, and Ernst won by 6.6.
It's not just isolated incidents: Vox found that Republican Senate candidates overperformed their polling averages by 3 points in 2016, 2.5 points in 2018, and a full 5 pointsin 2020. That doesn't happen by accident.
Now it looks like 2022 will be no different. According to a recent New York Times elections analysis of flawed polling, "That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016."
In Georgia, for example, a Quinnipiac poll released in mid-September showed Republican challenger Herschel Walker trailing incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock by 6 points. Historically, however, Quinnipiac has overestimated Georgia Democrats by 4.6 points, on average. Meanwhile, a more recent poll by the progressive think tank and polling firm Data for Progress shows Walker tied with Warnock at 46 percent.
This is further evidenced by the inclusion of a poll generated by a left-wing pollster from early October and included in the FiveThirtyEight polling average that suggested Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly would win his upcoming bid for reelection by 22points after winning by just 2.4 percent in 2020.
In any other industry, failing at your job for six years or more would get you fired. But accuracy isn't the point: It's propaganda.
Researchers have known for decades about the "bandwagon effect." When voters know one candidate is clearly in the lead, that candidate continues to surge in popularity. Some voters will flip their votes to be part of the winning candidate, while some supporters of the losing candidate will stay home if they think their vote won't matter. A 2020 peer-reviewed study ran an experiment to measure the effect and concluded that "seeing pre-election polls increased votes for majority options by 7%." Pollsters and pundits know this, too — FiveThirtyEight even wrote an article in 2018 about the effect.
That's the effect of the relentless media coverage of skewed polls: Convince independents to switch to the team that appears to be winning and convince conservatives to stay home. But Republicans and independent-minded conservative voters shouldn't fall for the left's real attempt at voter suppression. The stakes are too high; if the left keeps control, they would have two more years to enact more disastrous policies.
The stakes have never been higher. If conservatives take heart and show up, despite the biased polls, they have an opportunity to stop the left's power grabs in their tracks. The future of secure borders, unborn lives, strong families, and safe communities all hang in the balance.
In the days remaining before the midterm elections, voters should view news about polling with a skeptical eye. History shows we shouldn't be discouraged by skewed poll numbers. And by the same token, we shouldn't be lulled into complacency by putting too much trust in polls that project our candidates as winning. Vote as if your future depends upon it because it certainly does.
Jessica Anderson is the Executive Director of Heritage Action for America.
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Follow the money.
Democrats have been forced to pump money into what was once safe blue districts. Republicans are on the offense everywhere!
They are offensive EVERYWHERE.
eeeeeeek! fake polls! the polls are rigged! audit the polls!
What are the Cyber Ninjas up to these days?
You beat me to it...
they're on a beach somewhere making fun of all the gullible AZ blue-hairs with sun calcified brains that placed party loyalty above common sense.
You have to remember, just like with elections, the polls are only rigged if Republicans appear to be losing. When polls show them ahead, they proudly display the results and proclaim it evidence of how great and almighty they are. When the polls or election results show them loosing it's a left-wing conspiracy hired pollsters paid for by George Soros and/or illegal immigrants voting.
It's really pointless to debate polls with such whiny conspiracy theory believing conservative Republican sore losers.
"You have to remember, just like with elections, the polls are only rigged if Republicans appear to be losing. When polls show them ahead, they proudly display the results and proclaim it evidence of how great and almighty they are. When the polls or election results show them loosing it's a left-wing conspiracy hired pollsters paid for by George Soros and/or illegal immigrants voting.
It's really pointless to debate polls with such whiny conspiracy theory believing conservative Republican sore losers."
Yup - Kari Lake - whackjob enabler is already saying that any race where she might lose is rigged.
What's that nonsense? That stupid nonsense? That incoherent nonsense?
What does bad poll news have to do with Hillary Clinton? What is she running for?
I forgot - you have Clinton Derangement Syndrome.
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Off topic
Real Clear Politics, which is hardly a "left wing" organization, reported the most recent polls show a sizeable gain for the Democrats over the past week. The GOP "lead" was basically cut in half (now 1.9%) over the past 7 days.
Some consider RCP to be the gold standard of polling. I prefer Trafalgar.
Either way, the stats in the above article are correct. Somehow Republican voters are being undercounted.
gee, they all must have been in bed by the time the pollsters called at the dinner hour...
At 5:00 p.m. Right after Early Bird Special.
I stopped believing in political polling many years ago. Results released are solely dependent on those commissioning said polls no matter what party or entity. They are also heavily dependent on demographics by party. Anywhere between 100 to 1,000 people are generally polled and then the polling entity takes a percentage and then tries to make it look that figure represents the entire country instead of solely the number of people polled. The liberal left has become especially adept at this. Outrageous!
The key element is finding the people to be polled. How is that done?
I have a friend who once worked for Gallup and he told me demographics were provided by the requesting entity showing high percentage of voters provided by of either party.
I have many friends, both dems and repubs and others. Many of those Dems gladly reply to pollsters and many of those Repubs refuse to answer when pollsters ask who they are going to vote for.
After the mid terms are decided the dems will once again be saying "the sky is falling" just as they did in 2016.
I think that is the most logical reason for the underrepresentation of Republicans in polling.
Democrats, Don't Be Fooled By Fraudulent Right-Wing Polls
Yes, don't be fooled into thinking inflation, high gas prices, surging crime rates, illegal immigration, or border security matter to anyone.
Don't think for a second voters are angry at the Democrats for their attempts at trying to do away the electoral college; nationalize voting laws; pack the Supreme Court; end the filibuster; or make DC and Puerto Rico states to try and gain four extra seats in the Senate. Or their multitrillion dollar spending bills that added to inflation; or the recession that we are already in.
Forget what any non leftist poll says. This election is all about an ex-President and abortion./S
Please outline the republicans solutions for everything you listed.
Please outline the republicans solutions for everything you listed.
I asked Ronin, not you. Since you have failed to answer the same question multiple times.
Don’t be too hard on them.
It’s for them living under a bridge.
This seed might be a little more credible if it wasnt from a far right "opinion" site.
Everyone should read the Federalist.
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But The Onion is funnier and more accurate.
The Federalist
QUESTIONABLE SOURCE
The Federalist - Media Bias/Fact Check (mediabiasfactcheck.com)
Why should ANYONE read such rightwing trash, let alone everyone? The further right on the scale represents how far up dirty Donalds ass one's head is, and the Federalist is shoulders deep.
I'm sure you would much rather something be from Huffington Post or The Atlantic.
Your truth, not mine!
Truth is the truth
Plus reality and truth have a Liberal bias.
Only to a hard core leftist liberal.
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Left wing MBFC doesn't consider those two and NYT, CNN, MSNBC "far left" but anything that's moderately "right" is in their "ultra red danger zone" cross-hairs. Imagine that.
Ain't that the truth.
Convincing themselves of that is the only thing stopping the cheese from slipping completely off some of their crackers ...
I never go by one poll or one polling company. FiveThirtyEight aggregates multiple polls. I watch the trend taking account of +/- margin of error over time.
At The Republicans are favored to win the House 82% and the Senate is at 54% in Dems favor which is inside the margin of error so they are calling it a toss up and have been for a couple of weeks now. Too many races are too close to call - not good for either side, but in a mid-term year where Republicans were supposed to clean up slightly less good for them - though the partisans here won't acknowledge that. NO PARTY will have a clear mandate as the country is more divided than ever and wins will be done with razor thin margins.
Expect many races to be recounted.
Agree on all three points.
In addition to watching the trends on multiple polls, I look were advertising money is going and where the party is sending their heavy hitters. Yesterday, Dems bought $6.3M in advertising time in three districts that Biden won by 8 or more points. Jill Biden in a Rhode Island district that Biden won by 14 points. The Culinary Workers Union is paying members to take off from work for door-to-door campaigning. Nevada and PA could well decide control of the Senate.
It does give an indication of where the parties themselves see particular races, though it hasn't been a great indicator of who might win in the last two elections.
This is interesting CatholicVote is dumping $2 million to defeat Catholic senators...
Time to bring in the heavy RCC guns, bishops, and cardinals, and perhaps the Pope will give his two cents worth.
Very true.
If the democrats lose the house, Pelosi will be another historic first, the first house speaker to be so incompetent that she lost control of the house not once, but twice, rumor is she will then quit and beg Biden to be an ambassador somewhere. Let's hope it's Libya.
Lets see, there's Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria...
Afghanistan would HAVE to love him given all the gifts he left them...............
Maybe give Pelosi the position in Afghanistan, Biden the position in Syria and Harris the position in Iraq.
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I'm not a Democrat or liberal. I'll give you credit for trying.
Rumor has it that Joe is holding Italy/The Vatican open for her.
Let the liberal worker drones toot their horns while they can. On November 9th they’ll be sky screaming and scurrying for a safe space.
Poor babies ......
Or, they will put their black hoodies on and roam the streets looking to beat on conservatives like they did in 2016...
I’d love to see that in portland after a republican governor is elected and decides not to put up with shit.
So do you have proof of these alleged beatings on alleged conservatives?
Chuckle . . .