Biden's bonkers balloon bumbling: This national security expert has MAJOR questions
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The Biden administration dangerously mishandled China's now-famous, first recent high-flying "object" over America. Confronted Friday, again off Alaska, with a second unidentified object; Saturday with a third, over Canada; and Sunday a fourth, over landlocked Lake Huron, President Joe Biden reacted very differently, perhaps having learned his lesson.
Or maybe the last three shoot-downs merely underline his helter-skelter thinking. Not all the facts of these four incidents are yet available. The administration's constantly changing excuses and storyline complicate understanding, let alone correcting, its mistakes.
The worst mistake came at the outset, Jan. 28, when NORAD (the North American Aerospace Defense Command) detected a balloon near the Aleutian Islands. NORAD's commander, Gen. Glen VanHerck, said Feb. 6, "It was my assessment that this balloon did not present a physical or military threat to North America."
The latest balloon was shot off Alaska. AP
That assessment was wrong and uninformed. Could NORAD say indisputably the balloon's payload — the size of three buses — contained no nuclear or radiological weapons? Could NORAD say indisputably it carried no biological pathogens or toxins it could release into US water supplies? Did NORAD contact foreign capitals to see who would own up to the balloon?
Two days after first contact, the administration reversed field, concluding the balloon was an intelligence threat. Then, Feb. 9, amid frantic political damage-control efforts, the State Department said the balloon was part of a global Chinese espionage program, covering some 40 countries, capable of intercepting electronic communications and self-steering.
Did the administration so conclude only after first contact Jan. 28, or did it know all this beforehand? And if aware of China's program in advance, how could anyone conclude the newly sighted balloon, absent clear contrary evidence, was benign?
These questions alone demonstrate that Biden's approach, following Chinese balloons' multiple prior intrusions, was palpably inadequate. Was he gulled by Beijing's claims of researching weather and climate change? Did no one consider the possibility such claims were simply a cover for malign purposes, as is often true in intelligence gathering? Why was Biden himself not briefed until three days after first contact?
In today's threatening world, any unidentified object nearing US territory should be deemed intrinsically suspicious. NORAD apparently presumed exactly the opposite.
The balloon, moreover, was transmitting signals, assuredly back to China. If the balloon were innocent and merely astray, it is inherently incredible that Beijing, knowing its position in real time, did not immediately alert Washington. Of course, China may well have been lying even then, but by remaining silent, hoping the balloon ultimately traversed the United States without being detected, Beijing showed its true colors.
The balloon, moreover, was transmitting signals, assuredly back to China.AP
Days into the controversy, the Pentagon justified not shooting the first balloon down in the waters off Alaska because of the difficulty of recovering the payload for analysis. This rationale is either knowingly false or disingenuous — and constitutes yet another posterior-covering reversal, given Gen. VanHerck's confession that he initially saw no threat.
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Are they embarrased to tell us that the Strategic Air Command & NORAD had a wrong radar setting for decades?
How long have they screwed up?
The president has to finally tell the people the truth.
Embarrassment has nothing to do with it. Protecting their posteriors and not losing funding (even if NORAD doesn't have clearly defined assists or funding in the military budget). Try explaining the massive amount of stupidity it took to have such a gigantic hole in our air defense/detection system. Especially with Republicans (normally the military hawks) now talking about cutting defense spending.
At this point it really doesn't matter. Finding the problem and fixing it ASAP is the only thing that does. We are relying on the Canadians for a portion of this as well; so you have to factor in that. Canada is a big wide open vastness full of very damn little that is useful defense wise. Having a military that they could drown in a bathtub was great when the US was the super power nobody wanted to fuck with. That time is gone. We have been proven weak; and our enemies are moving to exploit that weakness. Russia, North Korea, and Iran are sure to jump on the spy (could be carrying a weapon of mass destruction) band wagon- if they already haven't. I am sure the Taliban, Al Qaeda, ISIS/ISIL and every other terrorist organization is raptly taking notes as well.
I am really sorry Vic; but Brandon doesn't know what the truth is. He still thinks of China as a friendly "competitor) to the US. Maybe it is the millions his family has received from them? Maybe he really is just that damn naive and stupid? Either way the truth is the last thing we will get from Brandon regarding this. His administration already used the "But Trruuummmmppppp!!!!!!!" card stating they had 3 occurrences of spy balloons that weren't detected during the previous administration. Guess radar records now mean everything- and visual sightings aren't needed for backup. Hopefully Brandon doesn't pull another "over the horizon" event and use a drone to try and down one of these w/o visual backup. Who knows what he will take out this time?
At most Brandon will give us another incoherent word salad demanding that Republicans "work with him on securing US borders and airspace" (meaning blank check for Brandon to spend how he sees fit). "China is not a threat to the US". "More funding is needed for Ukraine". "Russia, Russia, Russia." Followed up with "Corn Pop was a bad man; and I took him down!"
Yes Sir, I think you've got it!
NO, he never does.
When is the former 'president' going to finally tell the people the truth?
Joking, right?
John Bolton???
Correctly defined as a National Security Expert. Or do you only go by what's on Vox?
What, does he have another book coming out?
Who gives a fuck what Bolton has to say?
Mr. Bolton was fired by President Trump, so who is right and who is wrong?
On this issue? Obviously both were right.
But Trump didn't know anything about the spycraft, and Bolton didn't either.
Nor did the Commanders, but it was important to say "it happened under Trump."
As it is for you to say it happened under Biden.
Cheers.
Biden knew about it.
Have a good one.
Sorry, but a little correction to your statement.
But Trump CLAIMS HE didn't know anything about the spycraft, and Bolton CLAIMS HE didn't either.
Especially where Trump is concerned, you cannot take anything he says at face value.
The fact is that NOBODY including NORAD knew of balloons during the Trump years.
What the dirty lefties around Biden did was to put out the misleading statement that "it happened under Trump." That gave stupid people the idea that Trump did nothing about it. And as we all know, had the CCP been caught spying by Trump, the cameras in the balloons would have picked up missiles headed for China!
Your stuck with the truth again: The deep state keeps lying and Biden only shot that balloon down because he had to.
So they both didn't know and they're both right according to Vic.
We know which one is lying, the former 'president' who lies about everything.
I don't expect an answer but just what is the deep state that you always refer to? Something that doesn't exist.
What complete and utter nonsense.
Yet they were suddenly aware of them within days of spotting the Chinese one? Color me skeptical.
The speed with which the 3 previous ones were suddenly "discovered" years later, makes me skeptical about this.
Seems more likely, to me, that the balloons were discovered back then, but the military involved were told to "forget about them" by someone with sufficient authority. That remained until someone else with sufficient authority discovered it, and ordered others to remember the incident.
Omg. You actually think trump would have attacked China...
Ya! Everyone fears the former 'president'.
I'm sure that China was never sure. They al feared him.
They all love Biden.
Are you calling Trump a liar?????
I'm calling him an effective President.
Facts are facts and Russia & China behaved themselves when he was at the helm.
Yes, the man TDS driven leftists loved when he was bashing Trump.
We never loved Bolton.
We're not the ones with TDS.
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You were just cheerleading him on when he was bashing Trump. Same difference.
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He wasn't bashing Trump, he was telling the truth of what occurred during his employment in Trump's administration.
Don't you think people should be approved of when they tell the truth despite previous actions? It does not give approval or past or future actions, just speaks to their telling the truth at 1 particular occasion.
Only in leftist land. Funny how Bolton is never to be believed before or after his run in with Trump. Once leftists were done with him it was back into the trash.
Thank you for admitting Bolton was used for Democrat ends and then thrown away. As for the truth- the left has their own version of the truth when it comes to Trump.
Bolton and Trump hated each other. Whoever suggested Trump put Bolton on his staff was an idiot. Can't have two people who are never wrong even think about working together. Would I believe Bolton on anything he said where it directly concerns how Trump acted? Hell no. Bolton thought Trump was an idiot and a buffoon to begin with. His opinion didn't change being around Trump for any length of time. I am sure Trump told Bolton many times what he thought of Bolton as well.
Do I believe Bolton when he says that the there were no Chinese spy balloons crossing into US territory during the Trump administration? Yes, because if John Bolton had found out about them Trump would be the one holding Bolton back. Trump plays at being a badass- Bolton is the real deal. I am sure the Pentagon would have loved trying to calm Trump down; only for Bolton to jump in and tell Trump he wasn't reacting nearly strong enough.
Would you want to be the intelligence or defense official briefing Bolton? If the facts don't line up Bolton will have it all over the media. If they do and the military/intelligence agencies hid it from the Trump administration; he will plaster that all across the media as well. Either way it doesn't turn out well for Brandon. Bolton is the Brandon administration's worst nightmare. He won't be placated like the other Establishment career Republican officials that served in the Trump administration.
Your usual PD&D. YAWN.
We know as much about the first balloon as we did two weeks ago. WAGs aren't facts. I predicted that the debris either couldn't be recovered or would be too damaged to determine its purpose. The military had days to plan for a shoot down. Why weren't resources placed to observe and triangulate the position of the debris as it fell? The Navy should have positioned ships well before the shoot down. The location isn't that far from Norfolk so any claims that ships were unavailable would be ludicrous. Can't the military plan anything anymore?
I want to know how it's possible to navigate a spherical balloon. People have been trying to do that for 200 years.
What I find interesting is that nothing has been shot down for the many decades since NORAD and the Strategic Air Command have been protecting our air space. Now within about 8 days we have 4 "objects" shot down.
I agree.
Why didn't we shoot them down before? Did we just now create the means? Kinda doubt it.
So... what has changed? Why?
It's actually worse than just 'NORAD protecting our airspace'. These objects share airspace with commercial and military air traffic. Even commercial aircraft are equipped with radar. And both commercial and military air traffic routinely fly outside US airspace. You'd think someone would have noticed by now.
Commercial pilots have spotted tiny 4 prop drones in their air space. But a 200 ft diameter balloon is invisible? Sorry, I'm not buying it.
And at 3 different altitudes: 60,000, 40,000 and 20,000 feet. I have no insider knowledge on why now except that our radar filters would typically set for faster moving objects and larger, denser objects.
This is an era of UAVs and stealth aircraft. The military goal (by the US and its adversaries) has been to build aircraft that are difficult to detect. I don't buy the claim that there has been an overlooked gap in NORAD's capabilities. If NORAD cannot detect balloons then NORAD can't detect manned or unmanned stealth aircraft. That claim means NORAD wouldn't detect ballistic missiles that incorporate stealth technology. Sorry, I'm not buying it.
Fortunately balloons have limited payload capacity. But balloons do pose an interesting challenge because shooting down a balloon would the same as releasing a weapon. Shooting down a balloon would only mean the weapon would miss its intended target. Unless, of course, the balloon is carrying a missile. Countering a threat posed by a balloon would require jamming communications and doing everything possible to ensure the balloon remains at altitude.
you do know SAC was disbanded ? folded over into some other command .
But since NORAD is capable of announcing on every Christmas Eve the sighting of Santa and his reindeer approaching, they should have been capable of spotting a 200 foot high balloon.
I do. In 2009, SAC was reactivated and redesignated as The Air Force Global Stike Command.
I believe most people still know it as SAC.
Right now, I think Santa and his reindeer best keep out of US air space.
According to General Glen VanHerck, NORAD’s commander: admitted that the balloons exposed a “gap” in American air defenses. “I will tell you that we did not detect those threats,” he said.
In other words US radar had to make an ajustment.
Did we just now create the means?
The means were always very effective, though we have also learned that one missile missed a target.
So... what has changed?
American people spotted a balloon over Montana and Gen VanHerck as well as other Commanders were embarrassed and there would be questions asked by congress.
Why?
Why are we now shooting down everything in sight? To protect Biden's fake credibility as a president.
That's what the military is saying. That means we had a weakness and the question becomes how long was that weakness exploited?
I was with you until the last sentence. Credibility can be good or bad, but it can't be "fake".
This would then bring up the question, just what exactly was in all those classified documents that were floating around unsecured?
Documents in someone's possession for 18 months and much of that time under lock and key and DOJ surveillance were probably not a real security threat, but stretch that out a few years that, seemingly, nobody knew about them, they weren't secured, and were available for viewing by who knows who. And, on top of that, they pull in millions of dollars from the Chinese who have now attempted to use this weakness.
That's been bothering me too!
So the former 'president' did nothing wrong, but President Biden did. Anyone who went to Mar-a-Lardo could have seen those 'secured' documents. Not a real security threat????????????
Freaking hilarious.
The PD&D here is unreal but all you all have.
The only way they could have seen them at Mar-a-Lago is if they got past the hotel security. The Secret Service. All of the surveillance systems both the hotel and Secret Service used. Then broke open a double pad locked shed w/o anyone seeing or hearing them.
Unlike Brandon who had them stored in his garage; and a few other places in his home. A home that Hunter frequented often. An office in a Chinese funded building w/o restricted access. Also at his beach house where Hunter was also a frequent guest. Hunter with all of those Chinese, Ukraine, and Russian contacts. Brandon's two brothers took care of the Middle East. When it comes to crime families the Biden's are right up there with the Clintons. At least the Clintons were smarter about how they went about getting money.
Complete and utter nonsense.
Plus your typical PD&D.
As well as the security cameras......................And again we see wishful thinking at its peak form.
Citation needed
Again, the truth is not wishful thinking.
Something which neither of you has ever supplied.
I think I can speak for Ronin2 when I say no, we have never supplied wishful thinking. (Sentence structure and meaningful punctuation are a good thing.)
US security depends on a hotel's video.
Hurray.
Ummmm in conjunction with the previous method yes. Not what you are insinuating. And if you don't think that those cameras were/are monitored pretty much 24/7/365, you probably shouldn't comment any further than your present snark.
But Vic, think of the huge number of disappointed kids next Christmas. Maybe he just needs to be escorted by the American Air Force.
Ever read how that all started ?
story i heard was that due to a typo in a newspaper ad to track Santa , giving out a telephone number , a child called asking the progression of Santa , what was a NORAD office , the officer in charge knew it was too late to get the ad changed or warn the public so he decide to "go along " and had his staff answering the phones play along with the kids .
And thus started a tradition .
Years ago, back in Canada, I heard NORAD make the announcement. I think that for the kids it was a really nice thing to do. As long as it's a harmless positive thing, playing to a kid's imagination has to have the effect of developing their creativity.
They did a much better job of tracking Santa than spy balloons it seems.
i take it you mean navigate it left or right , the up and down is easy , add or remove the buoyant property that keeps it aloft , the left right , wont ever negate the wind current , but the release of a compressed item used as thrusters like on the space shuttle could be a possible answer . a possible shift in payload weight distribution could also steer such a thing , i do it with my hobby drone from china , the drone tilts one way and the drone goes the other , but thats something for engineers , which i am not , to answer .
here is what i see so far , 5 objects have been identified , somewhat , china has copped to 2 of them , the one that went over latin america , and the one taken down in the carolinas , the other 3 , no word yet who they belonged to or where they originated ,
I also read that china is claiming the US has flown at least 10 over their air space in 2022, Ok my question would be , where were they launched from ? Not exactly like we have very many countries in the area that would let us launch with favorable winds ..... but i am ready to accept any reasonably plausible explanation . Just not ready to accept Wild assed guesses .
China would have shot all 10 triumphantly down; and shown the world proof US transgressions.
China is trying to spin this into a "This is an everyday event that both sides do" thing.
They exposed a major military weakness; and are laughing at us over it.
A spherical balloon will spin on its axis. A rudder on a spherical balloon will cause it to spin. Horizontal thrust will cause the balloon to spin. That's what makes spherical balloons excellent platforms for solar arrays and directional antennas; its easy to spin the balloon to orient the array with a simple rudder.
Releasing helium gives up altitude that cannot be regained. There have been attempts to compress helium to change altitude but the equipment is bulky. Vertical thrust could be used to change altitude but that would require an energy supply to apply constant thrust. The needed equipment would compete with payload for the intended purpose of the balloon. And a 200 ft balloon at 60,000 ft altitude would have a payload capacity of only about 1,000 lbs, probably closer to 600 lbs.
depends on the propulsion system ( manifolded jets, they could be built into the frame of the pay load itself using tubular construction thus becoming the frame ) as to if there would be spin or not , that depends on where they were located and how many their are , remember your moving the payload , not the lift device , shift the payload and the lift device usually follows in the case of lighter than air craft , an object in motion tends to stay in motion until it encounters an equal or greater force than that that creates the motion .
Just something i know from working with propane ( yeah , king of the hill) , 1 gal of liquid propane is the equivalent of 200 gals of propane vapor, all one needs to figure out is what the same ratio is for whatever is being used for lift , and whatever they decide to use for left right motion and how it is manifolded and released . also remember that going from a ;liquid form to gaseous form creates pressure that would be used for thrust the gas doesnt even need to be flammable or ignited . And you wouldnt need as much for thrust at altitude to create movement , as one would at ground level , due to the fact the air is thinner , and thus creates less resistance . less resistance equals less needed force to move .
again that is where the engineers come in to figure all the nitty gritty details . and all that is for them is math using known qualities of what they are working with .
We do have some engineers that visit the site , could always ask them if what i posit is plausable , or doable .
Whatever you can think of has been tried. Navigating a lighter than air craft requires a cigar shape. Blimps can be navigated because of asymmetrical surface drag. The asymmetrical shape establishes an asymmetrical drag profile that orients the balloon in the air flow. Rudders and thrust can work against that asymmetrical drag to allow navigation.
That can be demonstrated with party balloons. It's difficult to make a spherical balloon go where you want. It's much easier to get a long, cylindrical balloon to go where you want.
So are all of our other foes. Allies are laughing, too.
I doubt allies are laughing about this. And it's unlikely adversaries are laughing, too. Biden's 'shoot from the hip' response has been very aggressive, antagonistic, and threatening. Biden seems to be using these incidents to justify a military response rather than a diplomatic response. Biden's response has been more likely to start a war than maintain peace.
Biden has been showcasing the military prowess of the United States. And that raises concerns about how the United States would respond to other situations that may be more provocative. Biden isn't displaying any sort of diplomatic ability or strength.
BTW, the asymmetrical shape of a blimp also creates an asymmetrical lift profile. That's why wing cross sections are not symmetrical.
Yep, China would have shot them down in a heartbeat and then claimed the US had committed aggression and a act of war against them.
Everyone is laughing at the 'right' and their deep state bullshit and conspiracies and lies.
Sure they are, right up to the point they realize they rely on the US military to do all the heavy lifting in any conflict. And, that the US supplies the majority of their radar and defense systems. Then they look for the tums and try and force their military geeks (which they don't have nearly enough of) to find any holes and fix them.
They are still laughing. Chances are they are prepping every balloon and spying system they can scrounge up for flights into the US/Canadian air space. Brandon will scream "shoot them all down, every last damn one of them! I will not look weak!" That is exactly the response they want. The more times Brandon shuts down US airspace for US F22's to have expensive target practice; the more likely the chances are that a mistake is made and either a missile misses the target and takes out something/someone on the ground- or an innocent target is hit that could have been avoided by waiting and following proper procedures. You are correct; Brandon is very dangerous right now- to the US.
By shooting down very slow moving balloons (sorry, very slow UFO's on the last 3) flying at various altitudes using top of the line US fighter jets and missiles? Considering one of our missiles fired from an F-22 missed the target that is not something I would brag about. Now if they could figure out how to use drones to bring down the balloons in a slow controlled decent; while jamming up their communications by forcing them to watch the new Velma cartoon- that would be something to brag about.
Brandon is still more of a threat to the US. As for diplomatic ability what more can Brandon do to Russia? North Korea? He would have to stop kissing Iran's ass long enough to admit they are a threat. Which is never going to happen as long as he needs them to rejoin the nuclear agreement. And he also needs their oil (If not for the US then at least on the world market). As for China, think he has the balls to take away their most favored nation trade status; and to get them kicked out of the WTO? That is what is left on the table. Sanctions aren't working; no matter how many are applied. He still can't admit China is anything more than our "competitor". China will buy how many of Hunter's butt ugly pictures it takes to placate the "Big Guy". There is far too much Chinese money floating around Brandon's family; and Brandon himself.
IMO it's actually worse than that. The United States expects allies to fight in wars that the United States starts. And it looks like Biden is ratcheting things up toward another war.
The Air Force is very probably using training shots instead of war shots. Balloons don't have an infrared signature so either radar or optical guidance would be required. So, yes, more sophisticated (and expensive) missiles would be required. I'm not familiar with the AIM-9x and only have Wiki info but apparently that is a radar/optical guided missile.
Defense is reporting they've recovered sensors from the first shoot down which actually says nothing. Weather balloons carry sensors, too. The Pentagon appears to be employing the old Soviet methods of maskirovka.
Biden is being led by the nose. Look deeper.
I spotted this UFO while driving along and was sure that I was being attacked by a Chinese Spy Balloon. It turns out that it was bird shit on my windshield.
just be glad elephants dont fly , with some peoples luck yould get a constipated one that just got an enema , we have all seen the video of what happens then , and thanked the fates that wasnt OUR jobs .....
I haven't seen a flying elephant for decades, a couple of flying pigs though.
I'm quite amazed at the number of experts NT has on Chinese spy balloons, NORAD, and the inside info on all of our enemies and their response to this.
SAC, the DEW Line and all of those antiquated organizations may have to be brought back to our defense options.
Then of course we could shoot them out of the sky without wasting missiles, fuel, and the pilot's time.
My selection for the ultimate low-tech weapon.
true , the commands have changed a lot since i was in SAC is no more All bombers though , USAFE, military airlift command i think still exists ( MAC), the command that had all the fighters was Tactical air command (TAC) things change .
Remember the first batman movie with Jack Nicolson as the joker? and batman flew over and snagged all his parade balloons ? i saw that clip as a meme on the book of face as to what the government SHOULD have done ... "he took my balloons ".....
we will just have to wait and see how it plays out i guess, Im betting the 3 china didnt fess up to came either from NK or Russia or both sent one up .
BREAKING
" John Kirby doubles down on claim that 3 balloons flew over the U.S. under Donald Trump when asked to respond to John Bolton pushing back against that claim. "All we're doing is speak the truth," he said without providing any evidence. He's speaking at a telephonic briefing here in Washington."