Poll showing Trump up 10 points over Biden for 2024 election criticized
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
A Washington Post-ABC poll showed results that diverge from most other surveys, and even the pollers made a caveat
A new Washington Post-ABC poll showing Joe Biden trailing his presidential predecessor Donald Trump by 10 percentage points was excoriated by leading political pollster Larry Sabato.
Noting that the pollsters themselves cautioned that their survey was an outlier, Sabato - the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia - called the decision to release it "ridiculous".
"Ignore the Washington Post-ABC poll," Sabato wrote on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. "How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you." He added: "Just plain embarrassing - for them."
The New York Times' chief political analyst Nate Cohn also criticized the poll that said Trump was ahead of Biden in the 2024 White House race.
Referring to a Post-ABC poll in May that found Trump was up seven percentage points on Biden, which was similarly inconsistent with most polling, Cohn wrote on X: "It's really hard to release outlying poll results, so you've got to give credit to ABC/Post here, but I do have a fairly major quibble with ABC/Post here: if you release consecutive 'outlying' poll results … you don't get to dismiss your results.
"If it happens twice in a row in the same race, it's clear that this is the result of some element of your approach, and you either need to decide you're good with it and defend it or you need to go home."
The Washington Post acknowledged its survey was not in line with most polling, which generally finds that the Democratic incumbent Biden and the former Republican president Trump would be in a close, competitive race if they faced each other in the 2024 election.
The Post wrote in its analysis: "The … poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump's lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat.
"The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump's and Biden's coalitions in this survey, suggests it is probably an outlier."
Despite the criticisms, at least one person stood by the poll results, with host Martha Raddatz saying on Sunday's ABC This Week: "Whatever caveats, whether that is an outlier, that's a tough one to spin."
In response to Raddatz, former Democratic National Committee chairwoman Donna Brazile said on the show: "It's a tough one to spin, Martha, but I don't believe Democrats should be sitting in a panic room."
Brazile went on to urge Democrats to "get out there, make your case to the American people", who she said are angry due to rising living costs.
Raddatz replied: "They are talking to the American people … and yet it is those pocketbook issues. The message may be out there, but they're not feeling it."
Trump does hold commanding leads in national and key state polls regarding the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. He enjoys that advantage despite facing more than 90 criminal charges across four separate indictments charging him with attempted subversion of the 2020 election that he lost to Biden, retention of classified information after his presidency and hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
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What would be the reason for the Post to publish this poll?
Could it be to energize democrats?
Poll has to be wrong ….. has to be ….. /s
Are you happy about this? Do you want to see Trump as PotUS?
To me this is an indication that the majority of the electorate might be irrational, irresponsible and unpatriotic.
Biden is a weak candidate and is clearly too far past his prime to be PotUS. Trump, however, is the only individual in our history who, as sitting PotUS, attempted to steal a US presidential election through coercion, fraud, lying, abuse of influence, and inciting followers to act. Trump has demonstrated that he cares only about himself and is willing to throw the nation itself under the bus simply because his ego cannot handle losing an election. Yet this poll suggests our electorate would actually put the piece of shit Trump in the most powerful office on the planet.
What should be done is for the respective parties to work hard to get good candidates as their nominees. The GOP especially should be focused on keeping Trump from taking their only nomination slot. Especially if this abysmal human being has a chance of seizing the powers of the presidency.
The sands are slipping through the hourglass . The more "polls" that show Trump doing well, the less possible it is that either the Republican Party or his cult will abandon him. His nomination is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. The constant drumbeat that has gone for years to normalize Donald Trump does have an effect including a cumulative effect.
What this means is that the country is way off track and it is getting worse. I think pleas for "unity" and for people to "come to their senses" regarding Trump are rapidly becoming a waste of time. Trumpism has to be defeated, which means removed from power through elections and replacing all the far right traitors in national office. Because we have dilly dallied for years about this, it will take many years to correct.
It is time though, for everyone to be realistic, America, politically speaking is not what it used to be and it will not turn around on its own.
The GOP continues to illustrate that it has lost its way. Thus there remains little possibility for any of its current contenders to prevail. Those GOP members who hold that they want someone other than Trump (but will vote for Trump if the nominee) are simply enabling Trump to take their nomination slot. Their only chance for having an R PotUS is Trump.
This means that the only realistic hope for the 2024 presidential election is for the Ds to get their act together and put forth a strong candidate that people want to vote for.
You want to blame the Democrats for the dysfunction and un American behavior of conservatives and the Republican Party. Trumpism is a cancer on America's soul. Its not Joe Bidens fault.
John, you really need to read what I write instead of leaping to an outrageous conclusion.
I blame the Ds for their part. Their part is putting forth a candidate that will not be vulnerable to defeat by Trump. I emphasize that the Ds doing their part is even more critical given the Rs are almost certainly going to drop the ball and nominate Trump.
Yes.
They still do not understand the disease of which Trump is the most notable symptom.
I'm not exactly sure why you think that is more realistic than another Republican overtaking Trump once primaries actually begin. If a strong Democratic option existed there would at least be rumors of their candidacy by now.
D candidates are not emerging because they have an incumbent. It is normal in US politics for an incumbent to be weakly opposed within their party.
If Biden were to have an incapacitating event (as an example) and could not run, do you really think the D party could not produce decent candidates? That it would not be able to appeal to D governors and other experienced statespersons to run for the nomination?
When you go out and lose to an inferior opponent, you don't get to blame everybody else. If Trump is re-elected, Democrats will share at least half the blame.
It is absolutely partially his fault. Rather than slowly implementing rational, common sense, centrist policies in order to exert himself as an old, wise, calming influence on our country, he has merely joined the culture war and made things worse.
There is nothing normal about putting forward an octogenarian who is clearly suffering from mid-stage dementia as a candidate for President of the United States.
Apparently not. He is in an ongoing incapacitating event. Can you imagine him in his current condition in a presidential debate??
All of this simply illustrates the disfunction of current two party control. The DNC, RNC and their masters have much too much power and it is being abused.
Trump thrives not because of the RNC but rather largely via grassroots. The grassroots people that hard party politicians hate because they are not necessarily beholden to party. Republican or Democrat.
It is KNOWN, not suspected , that Donald Trump sat in his oval office dining area watching tv while the Capitol assault was taking place. It is known that he did nothing to help or try to restore order to the Capitol , even though he was the nation's top law enforcement officer .
Trump did not try to give relief to the besieged Capitol because he wanted the riot to succeed. This is as plain as day. What possible justification can there be for putting this traitor back in office?
This brings us to the nation's greatest problem - Trump voters.
Biden is not the main problem, nor is "wokeism", Trump and his anti American followers is.
Last week in a nationally televised interview Trump was asked point blank "what were doing during the hours the Capitol attack was taking place?" Trumps answer "I'm not going to tell you that".
This: TiG@3.1.5 — "It is normal in US politics for an incumbent to be weakly opposed within their party."
Does not mean that it is normal to put a frail octogenarian as PotUS. It means that it is normal for an incumbent to be weakly opposed.
And here we go again. You honestly did not comprehend that in this: "If Biden were to have an incapacitating event (as an example) and could not run ...", by incapacitating event I am referring to that which would make it impossible for him to run?
So if the Ds were to put forth a competent, proven statesman like Governor Tim Walz and the Rs put forth Trump, would you still vote for Trump — the only individual in our history who, as sitting PotUS, attempted to steal a US presidential election through coercion, fraud, lying, abuse of influence, and inciting followers to act? Would you indeed vote for an individual who has demonstrated that he cares only about himself and is willing to throw the nation itself under the bus simply because his ego cannot handle losing an election?
You just can't help yourself can you? this would have been sufficient for any discussion. but you have to try to paint your "opponent" into a corner before the discussion ever even has a chance to take place.
While i don't necessarily disagree with this opinion, this shows al level of intolerance for any opinion that doesn't match lock step with yours,
and before you start the endless badgering it won't be challenged.
WTF are you talking about? You have a problem with a question? You think it is unfair to ask a question?
Instead of rebutting my comment, responding thoughtfully, you simply go personal.
Hopefully this is an early indication of movement in the D party:
The only hope for the GOP, it seems, is for the 14th amendment to prevent Trump from running. But that would incite all sorts of ugly responses and undoubtedly violence from the MAGA crowd.
Very little. So he should be easy to beat right?
Oh....wait...
The main problem is that neither side of the political establishment is remotely willing to listen to working class Americans who have had enough of being ignored by Republicans and being condescended to or insulted by Democrats.
There is an exceedingly simple playbook laid out by Obama, Clinton, or even Truman where you use rational thought, common sense, centrism and pragmatism to win easily.
But no. Our current raft of Democrats adamantly refuses to do anything sensible.
I coached for 30 years. When you get beat by an inferior opponent, it's your fault. When they beat you because you suck, it's definitely your fault. When you suck because you just refuse to listen, it's even more your fault. That's where Democrats stand right now.
I understand what normally happens. Again, there is nothing normal about this situation. Normal rules do not apply. Not sure how that's even in question.
Are you announcing your condescsion now? Is this a new thing or have I just missed a memo?
He. Is. Having. That.
It's just happening slowly, because that's how dementia works.
If this was your elderly father, you would have hired a home health aide and you would be touring memory care facilities.
He cannot endure the campaign travel schedule. He cannot engage in a debate. In what universe does that not qualify as "incapacitated" with regard to running for President?
Yet he is running virtually unopposed with full support of the party.
In the case of the GOP, however, the establishment continue to kowtow to Trump because of the strength of the MAGA contingent (grassroots).
I suspect the D problem is more that of fighting the natural momentum of incumbency.
Again, the normalcy that I articulated @3.1.5 is that of incumbency:
"It is normal in US politics for an incumbent to be weakly opposed within their party."
I stated incapacitating event. Something that happens:
"If Biden were to have an incapacitating event (as an example) and could not run ...",
Diagnosis of a progressive illness qualifies as an event. Do we have such a diagnosis from a qualified M.D.? If so, please link.
Other examples of events I am referring to include a stroke, a bad fall, etc.
I consider Biden frail, etc. but he demonstrably can get out and give speeches, he can still engage in a debate (probably poorly). In this universe, Biden remains able to run for PotUS. He is not impressive, but is not incapacitated. Key word: incapacitated. I used it for a reason.
One more time: "incapacitating event" refers to something that makes it impossible for him to run (takes away his ability to run). Death is such an event. A stroke, heart-attack, aneurysm, broken hip, diagnosed mental illness such as Alzheimers, etc. are events that (depending upon severity) would make it impossible for him to run.
No problem with disagreement with my point; problem disagreeing with points I have not made and not acknowledging those I did make.
This is so correct. People want to blame the parties, but the parties retain power and money based on winning elections and when one candidate is so far ahead of all the others due to grassroots of course the party is going to back that candidate. And of course those who are running for re-election will also back that candidate to ride his coat tails.
But it's so much easier to just broad-brush the criticism.
Bolding is mine. You should really do your homework before posting.
And before you start, I'm not excusing anything that Trump did or didn't do on that day.
IMO there are much bigger problems in this nation than Trump or Biden. But in the realm of politics, the greatest problem is our two-party system. The parties are backing who they are backing for one reason only, to obtain/maintain the power and money that winning election's brings them.
But by all means continue with your broad brush ranting.
According to the January 6 committee , President Donald Trump’s refusal to call off the escalating violence at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, was considered a “dereliction of his duty” and a “supreme violation of his oath of office” 1 . The committee’s hearings have shed light on the events of that day and expanded our understanding of the riot and how it unfolded 1 .
During the hearing, former Trump administration staffers testified that they urged Trump to make a public statement condemning the Capitol assault, but he instead watched the riot unfold for more than three hours on Fox News from the dining room off the Oval Office 1 . White House officials, including White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, White House lawyer Eric Herschmann, Deputy White House Counsel Patrick Philbin, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino, National Security official Keith Kellogg, and Trump’s daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner, all asked Trump to try to quell the violence on January 6 1 . However, Trump refused to instruct the mob to disperse 1 .
The committee’s minute-by-minute breakdown of the 187 minutes when the Capitol was besieged revealed the harrowing experiences of lawmakers and law enforcement who feared for their lives as the rioters breached the halls of Congress 1 . The scene was so volatile that there were calls to say goodbye to family members from those on Vice President Mike Pence’s Secret Service detail around the time he was escorted out of the Senate chamber to a secure location 1 .
It is important to note that these statements are based on the findings of the January 6 committee hearings and subsequent reports 1 . For more information, you can refer to the sources provided below:
And what are you trying to say in regards to a reply to my post? I already said that I didn't excuse Trump for anything he did or didn't do on that day.
Are you trying to say something or is that just another big rant? It would be nice if when you reply to a post that you actually reply to the post instead of just some random posting.
I'm not broad brush ranting at all. I am doing the opposite. The Jan 6th committee PROVED that Trump tried to steal the election and that he refused to act to end the riot.
This is not guessing or speculation , it is fact established by hundreds of interviews with Trump white house insiders and administration personnel, and his campaign aides.
There is no bigger issue in America than the prospect of putting a known traitor back in office.
All you do is "both sides" on behalf of Trump. These discussions are a waste of time. By the way, I coached 13-14 year old girls basketball for 15 years and about the same for girls softball. So you can stop "bragging" that you are correct about this and that because you were a coach. Who the hell cares?
You sound like a fricking Trump campaign adviser. You dont know a thing about Biden's "mental condition".
That is your opinion, my opinion is that there are bigger problems facing this country than just the possibility of two men who are not wanted at all to be re-elected into the Oval Office. You have not shown anything but emotion as to why I should think that this presidential election is the BIGGEST ISSUE facing this country. You want me to believe you, then provide some fucking facts. Explain why this should be considered the bigger issue over other problems that this country is currently facing? We have too many people today who are having to choose between rent and medicine and food because inflation has been so high. We have record numbers of migrants crossing the borders, and within that number we have record numbers of known terrorists.
IMO the Jan 6th committee failed its primary mission which was to determine what happened and how to prevent it from happening again. It was quickly turned into a committee to only look at one thing and to tie everything back to Trump. Trump did a lot of damage in regards to Jan 6th but the committee failed as they produced nothing to help prevent such an attack from happening again.
Why did they not look at everything in order to find potential solutions to prevent such a future occurrence? Can you answer that or will you simply deflect back to Trump?
We can go a long way toward preventing another Jan 6th by keeping traitors like Trump out of national politics.
And what happened on Jan 6th CANNOT be separated from Trump's behavior concerning the election. He wanted the mob to effect the vote count, and many of the mob told reporters and law enforcement that they were there because Trump asked them to come and agitate on his behalf.
Saying the committee overstepped their bounds is a very weak excuse for what happened and what was behind it.
Exactly and that is really evident in the "Produced for TV" special. They didn't hit a single thing to prevent it. Only implying that if Trump gets back in office, it could happen again. They laid the blame solely on him and not on the dumb shits that did the rioting and busting into the capitol as the cause. That was the intent the whole damned time. Should have called it "The J6 Committee But Trump Show".
And there it is in 3.1.29................the mission statement.
You can have any opinion you want, but then you have to admit that you have no problem with a traitor being back in office because you think he can do this or that to advance policies you like.
There is no convincing argument that Trump is NOT a traitor. He tried to overthrow the election, this is not speculation it is a known fact. He instigated the Jan 6th mob. Then he sat on his hands all afternoon because he wanted the riot to succeed in delaying or stopping the electoral count. Again, not speculation but fact testified to by many individuals WHO WERE THERE.
Most Trump apologists evidently have no idea what the Jan 6th committee and the Jack Smith investigations have uncovered.
Do you have a problem with keeping traitors like Trump out of national politics?
Parties, in general, includes the members of the party. When I speak of political parties I usually am speaking of the electorate of the party rather than the party 'leaders'. That is because, at least with the current GOP, the party 'leaders' are simply following polls.
I am convinced that you know absolutely nothing about what the Jan 6th committee uncovered. How many of the hearings did you watch, and were you awake at the time?
Yes I did. Okay tell me just WTF they discussed other than basically exactly what you stated in 3.1.29. Nothing about the police, nothing about the preparedness for such an idiot display of false loyalty by a bunch of dumbasses and their buddies, not a fucking thing except for putting up a damned fence to keep people out. Go ahead, show me your list without any reference to Trump's actions or inactions. GO.........................and you can stuff your snark.
And I am convinced you heard what you wanted to hear. Whether it was there or not.
I don't want Trump back in the Oval Office, but Jan 6th was a lot more than just what Trump did. There were many failures along the way that allowed Jan 6th to happen and from what I see those issues are being ignored.
I'm not saying the committee overstepped their bounds, I'm saying they failed in their mission to discover all that went wrong.
Nope, it's not a one or the other situation. This all started because you stated that preventing Trump from regaining the Oval Office is the BIGGEST ISSUE FACING THIS COUNTRY. I can confidently sit back and say that there are bigger issues than just Trump AND I do not want him to regain the Oval Office.
Keeping a known traitor out of the highest office in the land is the most important issue facing the country.
“…but Jan 6th was a lot more than just what Trump did.”
Of course it was orchestrated. To say anything less is to deny the truth.
In some ways, yeah. One of Trump's peculiarities has been his ability to attract people who had never shown any real previous political inclination or involvement. His arrival on the national stage brought these people out in large numbers, and in many cases they have driven away traditional Republicans.
So "the establishment" is stuck with him while simultaneously remaining confused about the depth of the anger of the people they hope to represent.
I'm not so sure. I sincerely believe that if there was a good alternative Democrat, Joe would have retired and put his support behind that person.
This is the wikipedia article on the Jan 6th committee. If you can find anything in there stating that the committee was tasked solely with making recommendations to prevent it happening again, feel free to copy and paste it for us all.
by the way
Summary [ edit ]
On December 19, 2022, the same day it made the criminal referrals, the committee published an "Executive Summary" as an introduction to its final report. It outlined 17 findings central to its reasoning for criminal referrals. [280] Paraphrased, they are: [281]
Of the entire D party there is no potential candidate better than Joe Biden??
They should ask me, I would offer Governor Tim Walz.
One can argue boundaries all day. I personally was focused on the testimony against Trump. He is the 800lb gorilla in the room and he was the PotUS.
What matters to me, and should matter to everyone else, is the testimony of the connected, high-ranking Republicans whose under-oath testimony compromised their political careers.
When considering the prospect that Trump will be the GOP nominee, I would think any objective minded voter would consider what these high-ranking Republicans told us rather than downplay / dismiss this information with an excuse that the committee did not do a complete job.
ALL of these would be a better alternative to Trump. And DeSantis, and some of the other Republican candidates.
Gavin Newsome
Gretchen Whitmer
Jay Pritzker
Dan Goldman
Amy Klobuchar
Josh Shapiro
Tim Walz
Corey Booker
Hakeem Jefferies
It is absolutely not normal when that incumbent is obviously unable to run, much less to serve.
I believe either such a diagnosis exists and is being suppressed, or said diagnosis is being avoided at all costs because everybody knows the chaos that will ensue.. even regarding his current service.
He is regularly unable to complete them.
Imagine what he'll be like a year from now, much less 4.
"On July 21, Thompson announced that he would investigate Trump as part of the inquiry into the Capitol attack"
How is that one? Sounds to me like he wasn't part and parcel to begin with. So if not Trump, what were they investigating? Doesn't hold water John. Here is some of what I errantly didn't see. But you didn't either evidently or you would have said something.............................
But then they corrected the purposely missed narrative.............................to save face and avoid the criticism for neglecting to do so......................
The committee was formed to investigate what happened on Jan 6th. Trump's activities were a major part of what happened. The most important part. If not for Trump there would not have been 50,000 people there, or whatever the number was.
The evidence of Trump wanting to overthrow the election is overwhelming. He better hope he can get some Trump supporters on those juries and get some jury nullification.
John, you have spent the last 7 years tattling on Trump nearly every day. You then repeatedly accuse anybody who doesn't get hysterical at the mention of his name of "bothsidesing" or "whatabouting" or being right wing, or whatever your batshit condemnation of the month happens to be.
I know you will absolutely deny this until your last breath, but the fact is that Trump sucking as a president does not in any way suggest Biden doesn't also suck as a president.
If you want actual regular, non-Trump-obsessed people to vote against him, you need to give them someone they want to vote for.
Did you teach them to take responsibility for their own actions? Or did you find somebody else to blame when you lost?
Why aren't any of them running?
You are blaming other people (liberals and Democrats) for the fact that the worst person in American political history got elected president and might again even though he is a known traitor to his country. The blame is with his supporters and those who voted for him.
None who have come forward... or been brought forward.
Great. Get him running.
Democrats really, really need to acknowledge internally that Joe isn't the guy for the next 4, and then work out a way for him to retire gracefully so new mainstream non-crazy leadership can carry the country forward.
It was those deplorable Obama voters in the Upper Midwest and PA that put Donald over the top.
The funny thing here is that you really don't understand how completely unhinged that sounds.
You also don't seem to see the irony in copying and pasting a liberals journalist's article as though she has any clue what she's talking about.
I don't know a thing about Trump's weight, either, but I can see he's fat.
Bullshit. That's exactly what they sound like.
If you listened to him 2 years ago vs listening to him now... you've seen sharp mental decline.
You keep repeating this even though I have never disagreed.
Let's try this: Jack, I agree that it is not normal for a political party to run a candidate who is unable to run or serve. Your point is acknowledged (and not disputed).
Now, do you disagree with the point I made @3.1.5?:
My point, my hypothesis, was and is that the lack of D candidates is largely due to the fact that the D party has an incumbent.
My factual support for my point was and is that it is historically normal in US politics for an incumbent to be weakly opposed within their party.
Taken as a whole, it seems reasonable to me that Biden does not have strong opposition given the fact that he is an incumbent (regardless of his condition).
Now, adding on: But I would think the D party would recognize that Biden is a weak candidate and would encourage him to step aside and allow stronger (and younger) candidates to emerge. That would put the D party in the normal situation where they do NOT have an incumbent.
And I noted that there certainly are candidates to emerge:
That is possible. Without evidence, I am not going to engage in conspiracy theory. If in the future we find that Biden is currently diagnosed with a mental impairment, I would not find that surprising. And if given a clean bill of mental health, I would not find that surprising either ... he is 80 years old and his behavior does not surprise me.
Note: Biden is too old to be PotUS. He was too old in 2020. So note that from me. I have held that position since 2019.
He nonetheless is giving speeches and could indeed campaign.
Note: I do not want Biden to be the D nominee; my views are just not as extreme as yours.
I think it is better to direct such responses to people who are unlikely to agree.
Let's pretend Biden steps aside.
If no candidates emerges to fill the vacuum then I would fully appreciate your question.
Right now Biden is the incumbent and is naturally taking up most of the air.
Fair enough.
Also, fair enough.
I don't get all the way to reasonable.
I think the D party has some of the same problems the R party has, specifically with regard to the conflict between the extremists and the establishment, and I think that complicates what would otherwise be an easier decision.
That said, running as the incumbent doesn't help very much if the prevailing belief of the country is that you're not up to the job.
Yes we know they have not come forward. That does not mean they do not exist (as you implied).
I wish I could.
Yes, graceful retirement is exactly what I have been suggesting.
This will not work with Trump so the GOP would need to force him out.
Imagine having neither of these old men as nominees in 2024.
They do.
I disagree. I think you are expecting logic when what we are facing is a machine operating with a momentum of precedent. Political parties are mechanisms with complex dynamics (partisan power plays by the 'leaders' and elected officials, etc. coupled with the partisan and emotional views of the electorate). Add in stubbornness, irrational conspiracy theories, etc. and that ship takes a long time to turn.
I'll use some TiG style logic.
If the Democratic Party actually believed Trump was as dangerous as they have tried to convince the rest of America he must be, do you think they would want take him on with anything other than their best candidate?
Do you think the Democratic Party wants to have to remove a sitting Democratic president in the middle of his term for health/congnition reasons? Do you think they want to submit America to the chaos that will entail?
No?
Yet the path they currently travel contains an exceedingly high probability that either Trump will win or Biden won't be able to complete a 2nd term. It's reckless at best and madness at worst. The most plausible explanation is that they don't think they have another candidate with a better chance.
I'm not sure how they do that at this point. I'm not sure how they could have ever done it.
It's depressing as hell.
If a political party could operate as a business with executives in control who can evaluate the environment, consider the future, formulate a strategy and then execute same then of course they would seek to offer their best candidate. In fact, they would only pursue candidates that they believed would clearly prevail against the opposition.
But, as I just described, political parties are more like machines than agile businesses. There is no control hierarchy as with most businesses that enable the execution of a strategy. It is a cooperative dynamic where varied empowered factions must negotiate to an end. The results are candidates like we have seen.
No, they logically would NOT want to show any weakness.
We agree on that.
That could be a plausible explanation except for the fact that we know there are better candidates than Joe Biden. The entirety of the D party is not unaware of its potential candidates. (I am surprised that you are making this easily refuted argument ... this is not what I would characterize as TiG logic.)
You have been arguing why Biden is unfit for office. Surely you do not believe that an unfit octogenarian who you believe is suffering from clinical dementia is the best candidate possible in the entire D party. And surely you do not believe that D party operatives sitting down discussing their future do not see this and have concluded that Biden is their best possible candidate.
It is more likely that Biden is the best candidate they can offer given his incumbency and within a dynamic where various empowered factions must negotiate rather than decide and execute.
That ⇡ is TiG logic.
I think it is too late. The only hope at this point is something happening to Trump or the 14th amendment successfully being used to deem him ineligible in enough states so that he cannot win. Not likely either.
I think you read the opposite of what I asked.
The Fox News crowd is convinced President Biden is a doddering invalid yet he just performed quite admirably while addressing the United Nations and in his recent interviews. He will have the United support of Democrats because those who know him and work with him know he is capable to serve four more years. Underestimate him at your peril Joe whooped Trump once and he will do it again!
He will need to overcome an enthusiasm gap among young, Black and Hispanic Dems.
I’m sure calling LL Cool J “boy” won him a lot of respect in the African American community.
“Two of the great artists of our time, representing the groundbreaking legacy of hip-hop in America: LL J, Cool J, uhh.”
“By the way, that boy has got — he’s got — I think that man has got biceps bigger than my thighs.”
Agreed. I think it's been too late since the summer of 2016.
Correct. I missed the 'n'. My eyes aren't what they used to be. Sorry about that.
Try to be honest for once. He'll have the support of Democrats because of political tribalism.
It's not a college football game.
You are correct on this point, Fox News 'personalities' are representing Biden in the worst possible light. Other right-leaning sources do likewise. They focus on his mistakes (and he does offer plenty of examples) and paint a picture that this is what Biden always does — that he is never cogent, never clear, never in command of his subject matter, etc.
Have I ever mentioned how much I hate partisan politics?
While I am adamant that Trump should never be PotUS, I do not see 2020 as Biden whooping Trump. I think Trump whooped Trump due to his abysmal character (his continual major flaw), the horrible state of the economy as a result of COVID-19, and then to seal his fate, his irresponsible and downright stupid handling of COVID-19 (denying it, claiming it will all be over in a few months, etc.). His redeeming factor in COVID-19 was his role in the production of vaccines, but that was clearly not sufficient to counteract his failures.
I strongly disagree. This is an indication of how badly institutional politics is broken. Expecting the electorate to respond rationally to an irresponsible, self-serving, irrational political system is nothing more than blaming the victim.
So, how does the electorate replace these candidates? The political apparatus has exponentially more power than the electorate. And it's not possible to challenge the political apparatus without being condemned as an insurrectionist.
The claim that Trump is the only sitting PotUS that attempted to steal an election is nothing more than carefully worded, quasi-legalistic mumbo jumbo. That sounds like an argument made by institutional politics that cooks up irrational arguments to cover its backside. There have been a number of contentious elections in the United States, especially during the first decades of the Republic. Andrew Jackson, a founder of the Democratic Party, engaged in dirty politics to contest elections. The Democratic Party would not exist without the dirty politics employed to found the party.
Only recently has any POTUS obtained the ability to interact with the electorate in real time. And it's that newly developed capability that is being spun into the bullshit arguments against Trump. Trump wasn't the only person in the chain of authority that had access to the technology. The argument is that the entire political chain of authority was completely and utterly helpless to defend the government and integrity of our institutions of government. The goddammed military couldn't do one thing to protect the Capitol. Doesn't that mean Washington D.C. is unguarded and unprotected? There's more military personnel working in the Pentagon than there were rioters. The military in Washington D.C. is just a tourist attraction, apparently.
Trump, and Trump alone, could overcome civil and military government, assume authority over Congress and the courts, and single handedly remain in power with a ragtag group of rioters. The entire government of the United States could be overwhelmed by an undisciplined mob. The government of the United States was in danger of being overthrown because Trump could Tweet.
Why should we waste our time listening to gas-passers complaining about Trump? Clearly those spewing spittle and outrage over Trump have zero trust and faith in the government of the United States; they are telling us government was completely and utterly helpless. So, why the fuck do we even bother with elections?
Bullshit. The only reason Trump has any strength in the GOP is because the electorate (through polls) is showing strong support. If the electorate (through polls) was rejecting Trump he would not be leading by multiple double digits.
There is no reasoning with someone who cannot see that Trump attempted to steal the 2020 presidential election.
That now exhausts my patience with your post. Ignoring the rest.
Donald Trump is , and always has been a malignant narcissist and a pathological liar. He is also a rampant demagogue, and besides all that, intellectually deficient and incurious.
If he is the present or future of America we might as well blow our national brains out right now and put ourselves out of our misery.
“Trump, and Trump alone, could overcome civil and military government, assume authority over Congress and the courts, and single handedly remain in power with a ragtag group of rioters.”
Good gawd man. In any way can that statement be justified? That is beyond simply enabling and borders on suborning treason.
Which only confirms the rant is based on deliberate ignorance. That has become the political conventional wisdom and it is irrational. We cannot meet the enemy because we have them on ignore. Yet, the electorate must behave rationally which, itself, is an irrational expectation.
It's a Forrest Gump conundrum.
Correct. Replay the Republican primary debates from 2016 for confirmation.
Correct. Review the news reporting of the 2016 Presidential primaries and campaigns for confirmation.
That was the choice forced onto the electorate for the 2016 Presidential election. We've already been there and done that.
The 2020 election was not an improvement. The political system doubled down on forcing the electorate to choose between malignant narcissists, pathological liars, and rampant demagogues.
Bullshit. The only reason Trump has any strength in the GOP is because the electorate (through polls) is showing strong support. If the electorate (through polls) was rejecting Trump he would not be leading by multiple double digits.
Well, as the seeded article points out, if you don't like the poll results either ignore the poll or fix the poll to get more acceptable results.
No amount of institutional political spin will convince me that Trump is even or ahead of Biden because of Trump's personality, character, or likeability. It seems to me that all these poll results are really a referendum on institutionalized politics.
The electorate has not been blindsided by Trump. The electorate knows who and what Trump really is. How could the electorate sleep through the 2016 election AND four years of Trump as President? The electorate is making a comparison between Trump and Biden. The poll results are telling us that the electorate aren't buying the political spin about Biden.
IMO the poll results are not an endorsement of Trump. The poll results are an indictment of political institutions and the political system.
Spot on.
If I had to personally like all the politicians I am forced to vote for, I might never cast another vote.
What are you talking about? 'Fixing' a poll does not change reality.
Possibly.
I used to think that. The support of Trump since his Big Lie convinced me that a large, potent portion of the GOP electorate is delusional.
I am completely uninterested in your rationalizations for the success of Donald Trump.
I'm talking about the seeded article. What are you talking about?
After all the news reporting, two impeachments, prime time dinner & show congressional hearings, and the Jan 6th riot replayed on a loop we're supposed to believe the electorate needs to know more about Trump? We're supposed to believe that more bleating about insurrection and treason is really going to change people's minds?
Maybe it's not the electorate that's delusional. But, hey, keep doing the same thing over and over. Maybe it will work the next time.
If Trump wins the election , does that mean he is innocent of wrongdoing related to Jan 6th and the 2020 election?
The idea is ludicrous.
I don't think you and Nerm are disagreeing on all that much.
Trump is indeed leading in the polls because the electorate is showing strong support.
This demands that reasonable people ask "why"? How is this possibly STILL happening? What on earth would cause average working Americans to vote for a man they know is so utterly vile?
It's happening because no alternative figure has emerged to demonstrate any sort of measurable understanding of the wave of discontent Trump rode to the WH in the first place.
No.
It means people care less about it than they do giving the finger to condescending liberals who don't see any reason why the truck driver who couldn't afford college shouldn't have to pay off the student loans of the unemployable Gender Studies PhD student who can't pay his own loans because he's too busy writing blog articles about how persecuted he is.
Trump has not been convicted. So, Trump is currently innocent and remains innocent until convicted.
The problem with the narrative of 'wrongdoing' is that Biden appears just as guilty of wrongdoing. And Clinton appeared just as guilty of wrongdoing. So, the electorate is forced to choose between the lesser of two wrongdoings. Trump has not hidden is wrongdoing. Biden has gone to great lengths to hide his wrongdoing. So, which can be trusted less?
Rational people understand that the Jan 6th riot could not have succeeded in keeping Trump in office. The most that Trump and the Jan 6th riot could hope to achieve would be stirring up a shitstorm, which was accomplished.
All the fearmongering about insurrection and about Trump remaining in office only lends support to Trump being correct. If the institutional political system admitted that Trump remaining in office was impossible then the institutional political system would look very foolish.
If Biden admitted that there is no way Trump could remain in office then Biden would look like a loony toon liar.
Trump remains strong because:
His indictments feed his narrative of persecution by the elites. No doubt he will use courts to burnish his narrative.
They're angry. Part of what they're angry about is continually being told they don't understand, or they're "delusional". They're tired of being told they don't understand their own best interests by people who continually work against those interests.
Voting for Trump is a great big middle finger to everybody who sees them as inferior.
Indeed.
Yes.
Possibly. But it is likely much deeper than that. I think far too many of his supporters are emotionally tied to supporting Trump. They accept his lies and ignore reality. It is delusion, pure and simple. This delusional mass is sufficient to give Trump momentum. The momentum attracts others who are not delusional but want an R PotUS and will even vote for Trump if they need to.
The critical failure of the GOP was to not detach from Trump (the ideal point would have been Jan 20, 2021). By failing to act, they have allowed Trump to stir the embers of his momentum and achieve the dominance he has in the GOP. It is amazing and disgusting to see this happen, but it is happening.
A lot of them are delusional. Anyone, for example, who holds that the 2020 election was stolen is delusional. IMO of course.
You have things backwards, they are not supporting Trump because they have been deemed delusional, they have been deemed delusional by virtue of buying the alternate reality shaped by Trump's lies.
Oddly, they do not recognize that Trump himself views them as inferior and is knowingly manipulating them ... as any good demagogue would do.
There is no problem with wrongdoing. The assessment of wrongdoing is what we do in lieu of a completed trial.
What specifically does detach in this context mean?
Could a GOP Senator or Rep, trash Trump and still win his next primary?
It doesn't sound like you know very many of these people. You're doing the very thing I described.
Why would you think they don't understand that? They're not nearly as stupid as some people think they are. They can see quite clearly that he sees absolutely everybody as inferior.
Chappelle tells it better than I do.
You got that right.
The ends is "giving the finger" to liberals , the means is supporting the worst person to hold public office in modern memory.
Don't necessarily disagree, but that's were we are as a country. It's not a unique USA thing, you can see it it in other developed countries as well.
Criticize Trump for his actions. Condemnation not necessary but the absence of condonement is. Actively promote alternates as leaders of the GOP.
Importantly, distance the GOP from Trump so that it could start healing its integrity and building a foundation that does not include Trump.
Not likely; but it depends on the region. Which emphasizes my point about a political party is mainly its members (the voters). The voters need to be weaned from Trump. That is why they needed to start as soon as Trump was out of power.
I agree, it’s the voters and many of them in PA and the Upper Midwest were traditionally Dem voters. All of the Repub leaders that have distanced themselves from Trump have decided to retire or are running a campaign to make a point, not win (Chris Christie, Asa Hutchison).
I am not very impressed with what you think you understand.
Who is they? There are all sorts of Trump supporters out there. Those who believe the 2020 election was stolen will very likely fall into the category I am describing. Those who do not would likely fall into the momentum category I described.
Some can, some clearly cannot:
Note, I am not suggesting this is a statistical survey. I am pointing out examples of the delusional group.
Visions of the things to be
The pains that are withheld for me
I realize and I can see
It brings on many changes
And I can take or leave it
If I please
I'm gonna lose it anyway
The losing card I'll someday lay
So this is all I have to say
Kinda like an impeachment inquiry? Kinda like a special counsel investigation? Kinda like Pulitzer Prizing winning journalism?
Allegations of wrongdoing seem to be a problem for the current sitting President. And being out of office didn't stop the last impeachment so losing an election doesn't eliminate the problem of wrongdoing.
Right now, the two leading candidates have been accused of wrongdoing with enough evidence for an assessment by the electorate and a conviction in the court of public opinion.
In politics, what goes around comes around. That's what the polls are telling us. But, as usual, the unbiased press want to cover the back side of the story.
Even here you see equivalence between Trump and Biden on allegations of wrongdoing yet in reality Trump has an overwhelmingly worse condition.
After all the news reporting, two impeachments, prime time dinner & show congressional hearings, and the Jan 6th riot replayed on a loop we're supposed to believe the electorate needs to know more about Trump? We're supposed to believe that more bleating about insurrection and treason is really going to change people's minds?
Maybe it's not the electorate that's delusional. But, hey, keep doing the same thing over and over. Maybe it will work the next time.
.
people who rely on only news sources they want to hear are a large part of the problem, as well as those who dont wish to have to face how wrong they were in electing the babbling buffoon
You mean know about what his enemies are capable of.
We're supposed to believe that more bleating about insurrection and treason is really going to change people's minds?
No, people are seeing right through it.
people who rely on only news sources they want to hear are a large part of the problem
That is why so many still believe the Russia hoax story.
Thanks for stopping by.
Yes, instead of recognizing that Trump has engaged in treasonous wrongdoing they "see right through it" and believe that this is all fake news and partisan shenanigans. They see a vision where Trump really is an honest man who cares about their needs and is just trying to right the wrongs of a broken system infested with evil people.
Anyone who votes for Joe Biden lacks morals.
And anyone who votes for Trump has morals?
I didnt know NT was a comedy club.
Or is this just more insane bothsidesism ?
Our political system only allows two candidates and I am only allowed to choose one of the two candidates. The comparison and equivalence between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is a prerequisite enforced by the two party system.
A candidate from outside the two party system can run for office but there is virtually no hope of winning. The electorate can vote for candidates outside the two party system but odds of electing that candidate are nil. The 'anybody can run, anybody can win' trope is an outright lie based up possibility without any viable probability. That's the trope that justifies a phony, rigged democracy.
Biden is just as guilty of wrongdoing as Trump. Trying to convince the public that Biden is the lesser wrongdoer doesn't strengthen elections or democracy. That only forces voters to choose the lesser of two evils.
That is an incredible statement, Vic. You are comparing the morality of Trump to Biden and implying that Trump is a more moral person.
The comparison is a prerequisite, the equivalence comes from you as evidenced by this utter nonsense:
Unfortunately, that is our reality. However the lesser 'evil' is obviously Biden.
“Anyone who votes for Joe Biden lacks morals.”
We can argue all day about Biden’s shortcomings, but to make such a blatantly ridiculous accusation does not further any reasonable discussion. It only serves to widen the divide. It’s obvious you are an acolyte, as that kind of parroting fits the hateful trump narrative to a tee.
We are past the point of being able to reason with these people. We just have to make sure their ideology gets voted out of or kept out of power.
You cant help people who wont help themselves.
Oh FFS.
You really need to get out more.
There will be millions of fine people who, if faced with an even worse choice than we had in 2016, will choose Biden.
There will also be millions of fine people who, if faced with an even worse choice than we had in 2016, will choose Trump.
Do give us all a reminder of any time you ever attempted to be reasonable about Trump.
Not just liberals.
just like the former 'president' only listening to the deluded to tell him what he wants to hear and shitcans the rest
the former 'president' is amoral - he doesn't have any morals or scruples or ethics or decency or shame or anything resembling a decent human being
I also bet he votes by mail like most supporters/enablers of the former 'president' look down upon unless it's themselves
I don't consider anyone who would vote traitorous scum 'a fine person'
My best friend (of 40 years now) is likely to vote for Trump. He is a great person in many ways and is very intelligent. He and I have implicitly chosen to not talk presidential politics because we recognize that it is counterproductive and we value our friendship well over that.
Why will he vote for Trump you ask?
Because in spite of all Trump's outrageously bad qualities, in spite of his treason, etc. he believes that Trump as PotUS will further the policies he wants and that Biden will go in the opposite direction.
It really is that simple. And I see that same reasoning among others (including right here on NT).
So, I would not think badly about the character, morals, etc. of someone who would vote for Trump (unless you have information about them personally). Voting for Trump is not a litmus test of character or morality. I submit that voting for Trump is a litmus test of partisan-infused reasoning. I personally consider it irresponsible, irrational and unpatriotic to vote for Trump and that it is a failure of reasoning both strategically and tactically. But I also recognize that good, intelligent, responsible patriots are capable of partisan delusion and can fuck up when it comes to political decisions.
You say it's unpatriotic to vote for Trump , and then in the next sentence say patriots of a certain sort might vote for him.
Someone who votes for Trump is not necessarily unpatriotic permanently, but they are when they support Trump.
Someone who is a patriot in general can fuck up and make an unpatriotic vote for Trump.
Your comment shows you understand this distinction. Patriotism is a long term philosophical condition but one can still screw up and make unpatriotic choices.
Although Trump has never for one second been fit to be president of the United States (he is the most "unfit " person to ever hold the office), in 2016 one could almost see the reasoning which in its most favorable light amounted to "lets give this outsider a chance".
The worth of that reasoning is long gone and this time its 100% on those who vote for him.
That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.
Think of the worst person you can think of - lets say Charles Manson or Bernie Madoff . Would someone vote for them to be president if they promised to pass policies the person likes?
It is inexplicable to me that people will vote a traitor into the nations highest office on the hope gas prices might lower a little.
I don't get it John.
In 2016 , or I should say 2015, I didnt know a lot about Trump other than I would occasionally watch Celebrity Apprentice and that he was a blowhard who came on late night talk shows. Oh, and that he was a lying birther in 2011. Trump, who was allegedly this business mastermind, wasnt intelligent enough or honest enough to get the governor of Hawaii on the phone and ask him about Obama's birth certificate. Thats what a responsible business mastermind would have done, and he would have been told that the state of Hawaii had officially verified that Obamas original birth certificate was in the state archives. In fact, Hawaii had announced just that , in press releases, two times before Trump began his birther ranting. Instead Trump lied that he had sent detectives to hawaii and they were finding some very troubling things about Obama. It was all lies. 2011. In itself, that episode should have disqualified him for the presidency, in peoples minds, forever.
When he announced in 2015 I looked for magazine articles about him. One talked about the time he broke a drinking fountain on one of his golf courses because he didnt like the way it looked. This was IN FRONT OF the reporter. Another was about all his business shenanigans, hiring illegal immigrants to tear down the interior of a building he had bought and paying them less than a fair wage. Another was about him giving himself bonuses while his casino company was going bankrupt and his investors were losing most of their money. Another was about Trump University, where Trump made a video ad saying that he had hand picked the instructors when in truth he didnt even know any of them. Then there was the time he lied 32 times in a deposition in a law suit against someone who wrote a book about him.
I read all of this, and a lot more, prior to the 2016 election.
This clown has never been fit to be president. The idea that he would be is laughable.
Reasonable about him? Why would anyone who knows what he is like want to be "reasonable" about him?
So don't claim you can't "reason" with people.
You haven't tried.
I completely agree. Why this is not obvious to everyone is disturbing.
and it’s disturbing to anyone who doesn’t find this disturbing to think that so many truly will vote, for one, so disturbed
There are very few poll-taking organizations in which I put any credence - Pew being one. I could create a poll myself that would put a goat or a dog having a higher standing than Trump or Biden.
We are begging for a third party alternative!