Someone Has Bet 30 Million Dollars That Trump Will Win The Election
“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said blockchain analyst Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence. The report also suggests that the bets could be an influence campaign designed to spread online excitement for Trump.
Trump's chances of winning the election have recently risen quite a bit on a crypto betting market, and now it appears it is known why.
The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.
...the bets could be an influence campaign designed to spread online excitement for Trump.
https://www.mediaite.com/trump/2024-betting-market-shifted-to-trump-by-just-four-people-dumping-in-30-million/
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2024 Betting Market Shifted to Trump by Just Four People Dumping in $30 Million
Phillip NietoOct 18th, 2024, 5:11 pm 3-3 minutes 10/18/2024
AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura
Donald Trump has gained a significant edge over Kamala Harris in a popular betting market despite being neck and neck in the polls. However, the surge may be a manufactured mirage pushed by four accounts dumping $30 million behind the former president.
Over the last few weeks, Trump’s chances of retaking the White House in November have skyrocketed on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. He currently leads Harris with a 62% chance of winning next month against her 38%.
Previously, the candidates were nearly tied at the start of October, but a report by the Wall Street Journal indicates Trump’s sudden surge may be due to manipulation.
Per the WSJ, four accounts have collectively moved approximately $30 million into bets favoring a Trump victory.
“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said blockchain analyst Miguel Morel , chief executive of Arkham Intelligence. The report also suggests that the bets could be an influence campaign designed to spread online excitement for Trump.
The WSJ reported that Polymarket is now investigating the activity of its election market predictor with the help of an outside firm.
Online prediction markets and apps allow users to wager money on certain future events as the prices reflect how the market views the probabilities of those outcomes. Prediction markets, however, do not have a record for being reliable, although, Polymarket did correctly predict Joe Biden would drop out of the race.
Per WSJ:
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What are the odds? Sounds like a great manipulation, and since so many of the American people are so fucking gullible (polls show Trump and Harris almost equal) somebody is going to make a lot of money from that little game.
Gamblers are stupid...
Yeah, it's so rough for most to have enough money to spend money on the essentials I can't stand to throw it away on gambling, even hard to put down $2 for a lottery ticket
The only time I ever gambled was when I went with a friend to see Jon Stewart in Atlantic City a long time ago and that was with the roll of quarters they gave me on the bus to go there. I won a couple of $100s and lost maybe $50. The drinks were on me that night at the show.
I worked for a company run by 2 degenerate gamblers years ago. they would always schedule retreats for the sales dept in vegas and pay for the trip. it was supposed to be a team bonding experience with sales training and meetings, but once we got there, all that bullshit went out the window and you'd be lucky if you saw either of them until it was time to fly home.
I've never understood the thrill of gambling while watching hard earned money go away, but I'm one of those people that gets stupid lucky, and I've never come home from vegas with less money than I arrived with. this was not lost on the company owners, and when they were down on their luck, which was always, they'd come looking for me to turn it around for them. I once threw 11 or 13 straight passes for them at a craps table, while suffering the verbal abuse of all the other players at the table when I would bet with the house.
I got my vegas thrills by riding the roller coasters and listening to the unsolicited sales pitches of the working girls that would flood the casinos around midnight. I was there mainly for the people watching and finding the best buffets and restaurants. the only time I ever gambled was while sitting at the bars and playing video poker so that my drinks were free. all the times that I've been there, I've never paid for a drink in a vegas casino or the cover charge to get into a club.
wealthy people betting on trump to win the election only verifies to me they were probably just lucky to acquire their wealth, and too stupid and careless to know it's value.