Will there be a Biden boom?
|
|
|
At the beginning of this year , Wall Street was almost sure that Donald Trump would be re-elected. A Citigroup poll of fund managers found 70 percent believing that Trump would win. As late as April major investors still expected a Trump victory. |
|
At this point, however, the upper hand is on the other foot. As the bumper stickers don’t quite say, stuff happens, and Trump could still pull this off — or simply try to steal the election, say by blocking the counting of mail-in ballots, a possibility that keeps many of us up at night. But Joe Biden is in a far stronger position than Hillary Clinton was at this point; two new polls from Pennsylvania , the most likely tipping point state, both gave Biden a nine point lead, suggesting that a repeat of 2016 — in which Trump lost the popular vote, which he will almost surely do again, but squeaked through to an Electoral College victory with narrow leads in rust belt states — is becoming unlikely. |
|
What changed? The pandemic, obviously. But also, this year it’s pretty clear that it’s not the economy, stupid. |
|
Expectations for a Trump victory were based mainly on the belief that voters would give him credit for job growth during the first three years of his administration. Since then, however, two things have happened. First, the economy has faded as an issue, overshadowed by the pandemic and, to some extent, by Black Lives Matter and the administration’s mailed-fist response. Second, Trump’s advantage on the economy also seems to have faded. |
|
Thus, a recent Washington Post poll found voters almost equally divided on the question of whether Trump or Biden can better handle the economy. A New York Times poll didn’t ask that question, but did ask voters whether Trump is responsible for the coronavirus recession; 53 percent said that he was indeed mainly or somewhat responsible. |
|
But did Trump ever deserve to be considered better on the economy? As many people have pointed out, economic growth during his first three years basically represented a continuation of a trend that began under Barack Obama. Consider this chart showing job growth since 2010. If you didn’t know that there was an election in 2016, you wouldn’t have any reason to think anything changed. |
|
More broadly, a look back suggests that the widespread perception that Republicans are better for the economy has no basis in reality. If anything, it’s the opposite. Here’s the growth rate of real GDP per capita under the last six presidents: |
|
|
Basically, the economy did as well under Clinton as it did under Reagan and no better under Trump, even pre-pandemic, than it did under Obama, while both Bushes presided over some serious bad times. |
|
What about looking forward? Recently Moody’s Analytics, a nonpartisan consulting firm, created a bit of a stir with an assessment of the likely macroeconomic effects of the election. It argued that Biden would do substantially better — that if there’s a Democratic sweep, by the end of 2024 real GDP would be 4.5 percent higher and there would be 7.4 million more jobs than if Trump holds on. |
|
What drives these conclusions is Moody’s belief — which I share — that the big problem we’ll face after the coronavirus recedes will be persistent weakness in investment. Trump’s 2017 tax cut was supposed to fuel a business investment boom, but didn’t. Biden, by contrast, is proposing large-scale public investment, which would take up the slack, while Trump’s repeated declarations of “ infrastructure week ” have become a running joke. And public investment is what we need. |
|
So this election won’t be about the economy. But even if it were, Trump shouldn’t have the advantage. |
Tags
Who is online
128 visitors
Notice the rupture at the 2016 election.
What's that you say? You don't see anything?
Gee...
There will be no Biden boom. The economy is recovering quite nicely, in spite of the waning pandemic....
thanks to Trump's policies
Do you have any evidence to support that assertion?
LOL Don't waste your keystrokes.
When have you ever known Gregg to back his shit up?
Now that you mention it...
Actually, he is correct.
The ruling class weaponized global pandemic for economic restructuring, worker job-bloodbaths, the bipartisan 'CARES Act' and more. As a result of these and other malevolent and antisocial practices, the economy certainly is booming -- for the Bezos and Musk's of the earth. The rest of us? Not so much.
Disney announced layoffs of 28,000 yesterday. The airlines have announced layoffs of 30,000 if the government largess isn't extended. It expires today.
As far as the waning pandemic, yesterday 42,812 new cases of COVID and 942 deaths.
The feds are pumping billions into the economy to keep it afloat. This is just the latest $75 billion with more on the way.
I only went back as far as August in a quick internet search. Some of these are smallish enough numbers but they all add up.
It will be interesting to see the number of layoffs by companies that accepted the government financial support which ends today.
And Biden has promised even more shutdowns.
Our President keeps telling us the economy is booming.
You must be mistaken...
Just like that huge new Foxconn plant in WI that Trump and Walker promised thousands of jobs! It must be there somewhere and we are all just looking in the wrong spot.
It's cloaked
As Foxconn's Wisconsin Plant Nears Finish, Lawmakers Want Clarity
The project's Taiwan-based parent has not disclosed what it will produce
February 17, 2020 - Jeff Yoders
Contractors are eyeing a spring completion of the 1-million-sq-ft main fabrication facility of Foxconn Technology Group's planned campus in Mt. Pleasant, Wis., but exactly what the Taiwan-based company will manufacture there remains publicly unknown.
Originally planned as a generation 10 large-panel LCD screen production facility, Foxconn scaled back those plans and changed the plant to a generation 6 facility one year ago. Officials said it will produce smaller LCDs.
The core space of Foxconn's Area 1 occupies 800 acres. Construction manager Gilbane/Exyte is building a power substation and the main manufacturing facility on about 750 acres.
"Whether it's erosion control, or creating stormwater [management], or moving dirt, we started in April 2018 on the master plan site development, whereby we focused on creating the campus," says Adam Jelen, Gilbane senior vice president of its central Midwest division. "The ground, the stormwater management, the roadway systems, to make sure we could have a steady hand with vertical construction in 2019."
Last June — after the master plan, roadway infrastructure and site utilities were largely completed — crews placed foundations comprising the equivalent of approximately 17 football fields for Area 1's fabrication building in preparation for vertical construction of the walls. In August, Gilbane/Exyte and their trade partners began to place the more than 400 precast concrete panels that are the walls of the manufacturing facility. The contractor also began framing 8,000 tons of steel.
"Our goal was to be substantially enclosed on the first advanced manufacturing facility by the end of 2019, and that was accomplished," Jelen said. "Phased turnovers started in quarter two [of 2020]. And then those sequences continue in the first facility, itself. ... The goal of the project is to build a world-class advanced manufacturing campus — the first of its kind in the U.S. Along with that goal, is to really make a difference in both work force and business."
Jelen said this type of high-tech manufacturing facility is unprecedented in Wisconsin. Connecting the construction community required creating a labor and supply chain network for the campus itself.
"Those connectors really started with information sessions that were done throughout the state and reached nationally/globally for the supply chain. They were done in nearly 30 different sessions to go ahead and communicate the project and how to get involved," he said. "Right now there's over 6,000 entities in the supply chain that are getting notified on a regular basis of every update on the project and how to get involved. I think it started out with a vision of making a difference in both business and workforce through our WI-First plan."
The project excavation team had 27 companies involved. Gilbane/Exyte and its suppliers are prefabricating as much as they can off site, whether that's the piping and distribution on-site, or the precast or the steel.
"We had to make sure that we get good strong prefabrication to feed the project with a steady hand," he said. "What we're doing is continuously creating opportunity in teams... There is intensive focus on the job to create and bring the best team of trade contractors to the table for each one of these bid packages. Through these teams we've been living out that vision. We've been successful and, yes, we've created these teams and we continue each week and each month to create new teams for the next phase of the project."
The first phase of the manufacturing facility in Area 1 is on schedule for a spring 2020 completion with production still on target to begin by the end of May or shortly thereafter.
Other questions remain. Foxconn had only 178 full-time Wisconsin employees in 2018 — 82 jobs short of the minimum 260 required for the company to immediately claim $10 million in state job-creation tax credits and aid.
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) said the company likely missed its 2019 employment target, 520 people in exchange for $222 million in credits and aid. This year, the contract requires the company to create at least 1,820 jobs by year’s end in order to receive up to $270 million more in credits.
Evers also said the project’s initial employment phase will include only about 1,500 people when production begins, which is down from an estimated 1,800 last year.
Foxconn's agreement with the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp., the state’s business development arm, calls for the company to create the 13,000 jobs by 2032. The deal requires the company to do its hiring in phases, meeting specific targets in order to qualify for subsidies of around $3 billion. Foxconn maintains that it will eventually hire 13,000 people in Wisconsin although it's now in a dispute with the state about what jobs can count toward that total. Foxconn plans to open innovation centers throughout the state beyond the campus in Mt. Pleasant.
In a recent op-ed published in the Wisconsin State Journal, Wisconsin Assembly Minority Leader Gordon Hintz (D) criticized the company for changing its plan from building the generation 10 facility to the generation 6 and the secrecy of what will be produced there. Hintz has been a longtime critic of the project and said in his op-ed that he had no knowledge of what was currently being built inside the facility.
My sources say no manufacturing equipment has ever been delivored to the plant. Not screen making equipment, not airport coffee kiosk making equipment nor ventilator making equipment. The plant is virtually empty. The buildings Foxconn has bought across the state have a few banks in them that were there when they acquired them, but are otherwise empty. No building permits have been issued for any work on them with the exception that had an elevator and front entrance repaired. I'm told the Milwaukee office does have a few people there you can see during lunch time but they won't talk to anyone and as far as anyone can tell they don't do anything. Nothing as been setup with the U @ Eau Clair or U @ Madison as it was proposed in the deal either.
The Great Foxconn con of Wisconsin.
Foxconn long history of con jobs.
Do you mean..
oh... no... it's unthinkable...
By Space Force?