Buzzkill Time - Superdelegate System Makes It Extremely Difficult For Sanders To Win Democratic Nomination
"Superdelegates" , in the Democratic Party nomination system, are elected Democratic officeholders and officials at the national and state level. For example, Democratic congresspeople would be superdelegates to the party's national convention this year, and vote in the presidential nominating process there. Other superdelegates are chosen by the individual state Democratic party organizations based on their perceived connection and relevance to the party there.
Superdelegates make up approximately 20% of all the delegate votes that will nominate the Democratic candidate for President.
The Democratic Party instituted their superdelegate system following the debacle of 1972, when the McGovern forces led the party far left and into a November wipeout. The superdelegates are supposed to be a check and balance that would keep the party direction in the political mainstream. This year may turn out to be a real world application of that check.
The party establishment , so far, is solidly behind Clinton, and she has the support of the vast majority of the super delegates 394 -42. (they can change their mind at any time though, they are not bound to support anyone until they vote at the convention).
But unless many of these superdelegates change their mind from what it is today it is very unlikely Sanders can win enough regular delegates to overcome Clinton's 352 superdelegate lead. According to this article http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2016_02/why_sanders_is_still_behind_th059567.php Sanders would have to win the rest of the primaries, in toto, at about the same rate he won New Hampshire, in other words, by 20 points. Unless Clinton was to completely collapse this is impossible to imagine happening.
related excerpts
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2016_02/why_sanders_is_still_behind_th059567.php
But, by the same logic, this is devastating news for Sanders. Even winning 60% of the vote, he barely scratched the surface of Clinton’s lead, which thanks to superdelegates currently stands at 394-42 . The same proportional rules that make it impossible for Clinton to put Sanders away also make it nearly impossible for Sanders to overcome a 350 delegate deficit.
I’ve seen some Sanders supporters suggesting that the superdelegates will flip if they see that Bernie is the choice of the voters. They cite Barack Obama as an example of this. I hate to tell you, but it won’t be so easy this time around. Obama had the backing of Tom Daschle, who had recently been the most powerful Democrat in Washington DC. Obama was supported, early, by senators and governors from the Plains States and Mountain West where the minority populations are low and the Clintons remained unpopular. And Obama won the support of the black community which had been initially skeptical about his chances. Finally, Obama had support from the donor class, Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and many philanthropists. If the superdelegates had denied him the nomination, a lot of very powerful people would have been upset, and the Democrats’ most loyal voting base would have been beyond irate. It was never going to happen.
It could definitely happen to Sanders, though. He wasn’t even a Democrat until six minutes ago. He obviously angers the big donors. He has no coalition of support in Congress, nor the support of anyone as powerful as Daschle was in 2007-8. There are no governors supporting him. Even mayors like Boston’s Marty Walsh and New York’s Bill de Blasio, who might be expected to support a progressive candidate, are not in Sanders’ camp. Add to this that a lot of Democrats are skittish about Sanders’ identity, his age, his region, his religious profile, his embrace of “socialism,” and his positions on foreign policy including Iran, and you’re not likely to see a stampede of Democratic insiders rallying to his cause. In fact, they probably see this as an example of why superdelegates were created in the first place. If the voters want to commit political suicide, the party leaders can step in and restore reason.
That’s the idea, anyway, and Sanders should not expect to see more than a handful of defections from Clinton even if he starts reeling off big victory after big victory.
Tags
Who is online
115 visitors
Basically, Sanders is going to have to pry loose many of these superdelegates or he has little chance.
Remember this the next time liberals whine about voter disenfranchisement. Their own primary system which they control is essentially a farce set up to minimize the importance of actual voters.
I want to correct one thing in my article. I said that Clinton has a 394-42 lead among superdelegates, but that is actually her lead counting all delegates , the superdelegates AND the delegates distributed by the results in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Well they were around when Obama ran for President so keep the head up and proceed with due diligence. If we quit trying we never win. That killed us last election when voters stayed home. To have the will of the people we most vote and demonstrate our preference. Bad Republicans and Hillary a Republicrat mother of NAFTA she was so proud of Bill for signing it into law. Sixty Thousand Factories have shut down with jobs sent overseas. Hillary is not for the middle class never has been never will be. Hillary is Two faced both republican. Vote Democrats vote. It was George Bushes NAFTA he tried as he would but couldn't jump the environmental hurdles done so he could sign. I wore my not this NAFTA shirt proudly.
Is Obamas pacific trade agreement any different than nafta?
I didn't think so.
Obviously a lot of people will agree with your assessment. However, the superdelegates are not forced to be for Clinton, they are free to support either candidate and free to change their minds up til the last minute.
I don't know that is the description of a "fix".
The very people who would suffer politically by switching from support for Clinton to support for Sanders (should Clinton win anyways), are the ones who are ultimately of most influence in the outcome. That's a conflict of interest that can sway the vote for very un-democratic reasons.
What a rip-off of the American voter. No wonder so many people don't vote.
Vote its important if your candidate wins the popular vote by several million votes and doesn't win maybe something will get done. Vote the idiots out of office dog catcher to Governor. In Ohio Kasich has voted against firemen, Police, Teachers and comes in Second to Trump. Really!!!!!!!!!!! Vote dam it vote we out number them by 30 maybe 40 percent. Stay with it stay active. Its why I'm not in here much. Work at it do all you can do. every vote still counts unless you let them buy your silence.