New Poll In Florida Shows Reasons For Optimism For Rubio
Marco Rubio doubles up Trump 48 to 23 percent , among Florida poll respondents who say they have already voted by absentee or in early voting. This is a surprise to many observers and may mean Rubio is stronger in Florida than previously believed.
-
related
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-trump-rubio-florida-poll-tie-20160307-story.html
A Monmouth University Poll released Monday afternoon shows Trump, the New York real estate developer who lives part time in Palm Beach, with 38 percent of likely primary voters.
Rubio, the freshman Republican senator from West Miami, has 30 percent.
Those numbers are a statistical tie in the poll that has a margin of error of 5 percent.
The poll contains other good news for Rubio. The senator leads Trump 48 percent to 23 percent among voters who have already voted. Trump leads 42 percent to 26 among those who haven't yet cast ballots, which means Rubio might be able to change their minds and Trump's organization needs to devote resources to turning out his supporters.
The Sunshine State is the showdown state for Trump and Rubio. Trump has been amassing delegates with a string of victories in nominating contests while Rubio has fallen short of his supporters hopes, winning only in Minnesota and Puerto Rico.
The two men have been trading increasingly heated rhetoric at each other as the state has emerged as a must win for Rubio. Losing his home state would make it much more difficult for Rubio to make the case that he's the best alternative to Trump.
Trump has belittled Rubio and called on him to drop out.
The other leading candidate nationally, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, has 17 percent support among Florida Republicans . Gov. John Kasich of Ohio has 10 percent.
10 days ago it was said that Trump had a 20 point lead over Rubio in Florida. It might be moving.
There was an article today how the Cruz campaign is going to spend around $10 million on negative ads targeting Rubio in Florida in an effort to knock him out of the race completely.
Strange times.
Negative political ads sometimes bite the advertisers. A famous Canadian story is that when Jean Chretien was leader of the Liberal Party in Canada during an election, the Conservative Party ran a poster ad showing Chretien's drooping mouth (he had suffered from Bell's palsy - a condition I know well because I had it twice but fully recovered) and the words "Do you want this man to run your country?" ( or something to that effect) but it caused among Canadians (who are generally fair and empathetic) an absolute landslide vote for the Liberals and almost destroyed the Conservative Party.
Actually, it is the showdown state for Cruz and Rubio. Rubio has to get out for Cruz's campaign to be effective, Rubio staying in gives the establishment a chance to effect the outcome.
The establishment doesn't want either Cruz or T Rump. and the only way to eliminate them both is no one have a majority at the convention.
It was Santorum falling on the party blade last time around this time it is going to be Rubio.
The only question is, WHO does the party want to insert in Cruz's or T rumps place.
My feelings, Bush. (who still has 600 million in campaign funds he hasn't returned yet)
Problem is they do that, they will assure a Democrat victory no matter who their candidate turns out to be.
"...the early vote numbers are encouraging news for Rubio. Polls in several states have overstated Donald Trump's polling lead by double digits, possibly because voters are breaking late to the candidate with the best chance of beating Trump.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls showed Trump leading Rubio by 14.5 points in Virginia —36.8 percent to 22.3 percent. But Trump only beat Rubio by 2.8 points in Virginia—34.7 percent to 31.9 percent. The polling average in Louisiana showed Trump leading Ted Cruz by 15.6 points in—43.3 percent to 27.7 percent. But Trump only beat Cruz on Saturday by 3.6 points—41.4 percent to 37.8 percent. Cruz beat Trump by 25 points in the Kansas caucuses on Saturday after polls showed Trump leading Cruz by 6 to 12 points ."
Yes cause we have democrats crossing over to vote in republican primaries to prop up the opposition.
Even more proof that the establishment parties are one and the same and help each other out when the people turn against them.
The Establishment is making a mockery of the election process in their attempts to retain power.
Never forget, the Democrats and Republicans in WA state (usually bitter enemies) got together and sued the electorate over open primaries, AND WON!
That was so their parties get to chose the candidates and the rank and file citizen in the party has no choice.
The Establishment political parties are in a fight for their lives now and the people are angry.
And they (the parties) deserve that anger.
Trump seems to do best among early voters and then late deciders break away from him. It played out in LA where the early voters gave Trump a 20 point lead, only to have him have to hang on by a couple of points once the votes from election day were tallied.
Early voting is a terrible idea, in general. Circumstances change over a couple weeks.
Meanwhile back at the campaign
WE all know democrats hate T Rump, hell most establishment republicans hate him also.
WE also know that there are myriad people that will love their 15 seconds of fame in a political campaign.
What you doing here is just throwing crap at the wall hoping something sticks. problem is T Rump is already covered in so much crap that you will never know if something is sticking or not.
and in reality all the toughest political tactics brought to bear are showing little to any effect on slowing down the T Rump train....
But we still have a few months to go....
If the tactics were working, we would have seen some evidence of it by now.
I don't hate Trump, I want to see him stay in the race and win. The establishment republicans will pee their pants.
It fun to watch the Tea Party put a huge split in the party and than Trump comes along and makes it a three way split.
the Tea Party put a huge split in the party
I agree Kavika. I don't know why the Republicans continue to ignore this faction of their voters. Both parties need to learn to work with their extremists. They deserve a voice but it shouldn't outweigh the other voices and that can only be determined by the voters.
NM, after 8 months of being on tv EVERY DAY, much more than the other candidates, he is averaging 34% in the Republican primaries. 2 out of 3 REPUBLICANS don't want him. This tidal wave of support you keep going on about is in your imagination.
When Rubio grows up he can run, again. His family is adorable and so is he, but can you imagine that little twerp as President of the U.S.?
The only one of the four Republican candidates I can imagine as President is Kasich. The others are a nightmare waiting to happen. In ascending order of awfulness, Rubio, Cruz and Trump.