Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning: Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation
With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week's odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey released on Monday.
The former secretary of state was leading Trump by about 45 percent to 42 percent in the popular vote, and was on track to win 303 votes in the Electoral College to Trump’s 235, clearing the 270 needed for victory, the survey found.
Trump's chances rest with his performance in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio, which were too close to call on Sunday, when polling ended, and Pennsylvania, where Clinton enjoyed a slim lead of three percentage points. For Trump to win, he will have to take most of those states.
Any combination of two losses in the three states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania would almost assuredly result in a Clinton victory. At the same time, Trump must hold onto the traditionally Republican state of Arizona, where the race has drawn close, and hope that independent candidate Evan McMullin does not claim another Republican bastion, Utah.
To win, Trump needs higher turnout among Republican white voters than that which materialized in 2012, a drop-off in ballots by African-American voters and a smaller-than-predicted increase in Hispanic voters, the project showed.
CLUES TO THE OUTCOME
North Carolina, one of the first states to report results on Tuesday night, might provide clues to the outcome. If Clinton wins the state, it probably means African Americans are turning out to vote at a similar rate to 2012, when President Barack Obama beat Republican Mitt Romney by four points nationally. Romney won North Carolina by two points.
The States of the Nation poll found that early votes have been cast evenly between Trump and Clinton in North Carolina. Trump enjoyed a slim one-point advantage among all likely voters, 47 percent to Clinton’s 46. He had a 30 percentage point lead among white voters, while Clinton led by about 85 points among black voters.
Florida, with its 29 electoral college votes, is crucial to Trump. If Clinton wins Florida, she just needs to win one of the three big swing states of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania while Trump would have to win all three. If he wins Florida, Trump still must win both Ohio and Michigan or hope for an upset in Pennsylvania.
According to the project, Clinton enjoys the tiniest of leads in Florida, 48 percent to 47. Clinton leads Trump by 75 points among black voters and has about a 20 point lead among Hispanics. But Trump enjoys a 30 point lead among likely white voters. Clinton’s success in Florida depends on heavy turnout among black voters. Without it, the race becomes razor-thin, even with a large increase in Hispanic ballots.
Michigan and Ohio were too close to call on Sunday, according to the project. Clinton’s support is more solid in Pennsylvania. Still, a surge of white Republican voters combined with a drop in turnout among black Democrats could be enough to tilt Ohio and Michigan to Trump and put Pennsylvania in play.
If Trump remains in contention on Tuesday night after the eastern swing states have been decided, eyes will turn to Arizona. Trump led Clinton by five points on Sunday, but Arizona had moved steadily toward Clinton in recent weeks, according to the project. It is also a state where higher Hispanic turnout could tip the result in Clinton’s favor.
If Trump is in a position to win after Arizona, he could still be tripped up by Utah, where McMullin has remained a contender to the end.
Opinion polls have Trump up by five points or more in Utah. A McMullin upset could set up a low-probability scenario where neither Clinton or Trump reaches the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. The election would then be decided by the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives, where lawmakers would have a three-way choice among Trump, Clinton and McMullin, a Utah native and former CIA operative.
The States of the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people every week in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C. State by state results are available by visiting here
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As so many of us so often say,
FUCK OFF
Really John? Is that all you have. We didn't resort to F-bombs whenever you all had some Obama triumph to discuss. WWJD? What are you going to do the next 4 years? Cuss all the time? Run off to a PC snowflake safe zone and hide for fear of reading or seeing something you don't like?
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I voted for Jill Stein. That evening, I went to bed expecting Hillary to win. In the morning, when I found out Trump won, I laughed out loud. I'll cut him some slack, for the time being.
It was a snow job for sure. Nate Silver's 538 was predicting a 70% chance of Hillary winning. He could have come up with better odds flipping a coin. They even had me fooled.
Pathetic article, which is nothing but I reseed of something that was seeded here right before the election.
Last night BF went through my old seeds to find some that predicted a Clinton victory and started spamming the forum with some of them. I think he managed to put 8 of these 4 month old articles back into play before I was able to delete them , and he was otherwise told to knock it off.
Why would he be spamming the forum with eight 4 month old articles?
He was pissed that I had made a fool out of his beloved Infowars and a false article he had seeded a couple days earlier from that site.
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So today he knows that if he continues to bring my articles from right before the election back again, I will delete them. So he goes to the link on one of those articles and copies the article and seeds it under his own name so it cannot be removed.
And it becomes the hit article of the day !
ROFL.
All the things happening today in the world and in the presidential news and Newstalkers is rehashing something about polling before the election. Yikes !
And for the record, national polling had Clinton winning by from 3 to 5 points on the eve of the election.
She won the popular vote by 2 points, within the margin of error of almost every national poll.
This was the biggest fake news story in our history. Our entire MSM knew she was losing for months and colluded with the Clinton campaign.
Ridiculous nonsense.
But par for the course here.
That's why he's the best we have. He has a unique talent for sensing the vibe of the NTers community and seeding what the people are interested in.
Thank you Mr. Oblivious.
I have my doubts that Perrie would consider this much of a day for traffic on NT.
Good. You deserve it. He used one of his five seeds a day on it so why would you care. I love it when he reseeded your and others red box rules articles sans the RBR's.
Thank you Mr. Oblivious