A jobs threat worse than mass store closures could fire more than 7 million retail workers
Nearly half of retail workers are at risk of losing their jobs to robots and other automation technology, according to a new report.
Roughly 6 million to 7.5 million retail jobs "likely will be automated out of existence in the coming years, leaving a large portion of the retail workforce at risk of becoming 'stranded workers,'" according to the 56-page report by investment advisory firm Cornerstone Capital Group.
Retail cashiers, 73% of whom are women, will suffer the most job losses, the study found.
The losses will also disproportionately affect the working poor, since most hourly retail workers live below the poverty line.
About 16 million people, or one in 10 American workers, are employed in the retail industry.
That means the rise of automation will not only impact retail workers, but will also have broad implications for the economy as a whole, according to Jon Lukomnik, the executive director of the Investor Responsibility Research Center Institute, which commissioned the study.
"This in-depth examination of retail automation gives investors insights as they consider investment risks and opportunities," Lukomnik said in a news release. "While the findings are important to investors, they should sound the alarm for economists and political leaders. The shrinking of retail jobs in many ways threatens to mirror the decline in manufacturing in the US. Moreover, in this case, workers at risk are already disproportionately working poor, so any disruption may cause strains in the social safety net and stresses on local tax revenues."
Retail workers are already facing an uncertain future with stores closing at rates not seen since the recession.
Retailers have announced more than 3,400 store closures so far this year, and Credit Suisse analysts expect that number to grow to more than 8,600 before the end of the year. For comparison, 6,163 stores shut down in 2008 — the worst year for closures on record.
The retail industry typically pays low wages but employs people in every age bracket, as well as those who are low-skilled and need flexible scheduling options.
When these workers lose their jobs, they can have a hard time finding other employment.
The automation services that are disrupting retail employment can range from tablets where customers can check out without the help of a cashier to more complicated technologies like the robot that Lowe's is testing that can interact with customers in stores and help them find the items they need.
Automation is also impacting the restaurant industry. The CEO of Taco Bell's parent company said in March that machines could replace human workers in 10 years.
"I don't think it is going to happen next year or the year after, but I do believe that probably by the mid '20s to the late '20s, you'll start to see a dramatic change in sort of how machines run the world," Greg Creed, CEO of Yum Brands, told CNBC. Yum owns a handful of fast-food companies including KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut.
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IMO, we are turning a blind eye to this mounting problem.
The complaint that we are losing manufacturing jobs because of out sourcing is only a portion of the problem. Job loss due to automation in the manufacturing sector exceeds jobs lost to out scouring.
The tsunami is coming.
Yes the problem that we are turning a blind eye to is overpopulation. We should have been working at cutting our population in half since 1970 not doubling it. That's how supply and demand works. More people competing for the same jobs is not the direction we need to go. Most of the worlds problems are linked to the population explosion.
We should have been working at cutting our population in half since 1970 not doubling it.
I believe the Republicans and Trump are working on cutting the population. It's called the Republican health care plan.
Sarcasm aside, you are right. We did not count on people living so long. We have the younger generation being tasked with supporting an older generation. Couple that with the supply and demand challenges in the workforce. We are doomed.....doomed I say....doomed.....(cough, hack, hack, hack.....clearing throat) doooooomed!
Dean,
Hypothetically, the way supply and demand goes, is if there are more people there is more demand. If there is more demand, there is more manufacturing and jobs. That is econ 101. So our population growth, has little to do with this.
there is more manufacturing
Yes
and jobs.
No
Both parties are working hard at eliminating humans from the earth. It's called WAR and they both love it.
Aeon, it's a form of population control and we seem to be quite good at it.
Yeah, but will the robot give me a napkin? Mother's Day, we picked up KFC and took a picnic at one of the local parks. No napkins. It's so much fun eating greasy fried chicken without a napkin...
In all sincerity, this is a major problem and going to get a lot worse. However, my fast food experience of late has not been pleasant. I would hope that robots could at least serve us all courteously and do what they are supposed to do!
Yes population is a problem. The question is how do you control the population.
China had the one child policy which lead to a whole different problem. Could something like that even be possible in the U.S.?
Limit or strop immigration. Study after study have shown that without immigration we would be in the same problem area that Japan and parts of Europe are in. An aging population without a growing younger population. We end up a net negative which won't work either.
It's a problem but what is the solution?
I don't think the answer is to kill babies or limit child birth. Clearly we need a cut off age for life. Maybe 65 or something like that. At 65 you say your goodbyes and walk the plank.
Very Grim.
I think replacement rate should be the goal. You get married, you have 2 kids, done. Then when you go, your kids fill the void.
It still will not stop the problem with automation. We were warned about this by all in the field of AI. We are Frankenstien and we created our own demise.
Your right, the automation and AI is going to cause a huge problem, and it doesn't seem that we are preparing for it.
Seems we are at the beginning of a new industrial revolution. It took nearly 150 years for the genaral population to reap the benefits of the first, how long will it take for this one?
If we don't realize that it's already upon us, we are going to have a difficult time dealing with it, Steve.