Trump economic effect in full force with 905k new jobs in September
October 13, 2017
905,000 more people were employed in one month. 341,000 fewer people were unemployed in one month. 575,000 more people joined the labor force in one month.
These almost impossible results were reported by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics for the month of September . That’s right, last month the Labor Department’s household survey showed a stunning increase in the number of people employed with many of these new employees coming directly from the ranks of those previously not participating in the workforce.
As someone who has been consistently skeptical of BLS employment survey results, it would be hypocritical to go whole hog in praising the direction of the economy based upon this one result, but the trend line seems increasingly clear.
If the September numbers hold up, America is in full-fledged recovery, and Americans who had previously seemed to have given up hope, are heading back to work. And it is not just some Americans. Teenagers and African-Americans, who usually are the last to benefit from an employment upswing, paced the job gainers with showing 0.7 percent increases in employment. And those who considered themselves to be part-time employees for economic reasons, dropped significantly in September by a whopping 133,000 people.
To put this good news in broader perspective, since Donald Trump became President in January of 2016, 2.2 million more Americans have jobs than before he took office, and 834,000 fewer Americans are unemployed. More confirmation of this increased ability for Americans to fend for themselves is found in the food stamp data which shows that 2.2 million fewer people are on food stamps than a year ago with a savings of more than $15 billion for the taxpayers. Meanwhile government revenues are estimated to have increased by about $200 billion in Fiscal Year 2017 , a windfall that will accelerate should the employment data hold up over time. This wealth dividend should have the virtuous effect of increasing revenues and lowering government support costs squeezing the deficit downward as a result.
But the picture is not entirely rosy as 5.6 million Americans who are not in the labor force still want a job now, a sign that slack still remains in the labor force, allowing the economy plenty of room to grow.
Also, the havoc caused by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria respectively in Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue to slow some aspects of the economy not only in those afflicted areas, but throughout the nation as the resulting gasoline price increases are still settling downward. However, as perverse as it sounds, the construction spending, vehicle and other durable goods purchases resulting from the destruction should increase in the Houston area according to Greater Houston Partnership Senior Vice President of Research Patrick Jankowski.
Harvey and Irma had one major negative impact on the BLS jobs data, due to businesses being closed during September, the establishment survey which measures job creation showed that the overall economy lost 30,000 jobs in the same month that the unemployment survey showed 905,000 more people having jobs.
BLS was quick to explain the anomaly as being a direct result of the short-term shuttering of part of the economy and the differences in the questions asked job creators versus workers writing, “In the establishment survey, employees who are not paid for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month are not counted as employed. In the household survey, persons with a job are counted as employed even if they miss work for the entire survey reference week (the week including the 12th of the month), regardless of whether or not they are paid. For both surveys, national estimates do not include Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands.”
If the economy is surging the way it seems to be, the Trump economic effect will be in full force as an increasingly tight labor market should create increased wage growth, while the overall inflation rate remains relatively stable at 1.9 percent over the past twelve months.
Once again, it is wise to remain skeptical of the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly job reports, but if September’s numbers hold up, the economy could be in for a burst of new vibrancy as a million new job holding consumers begin to exercise their purchasing power with all the residual benefits to the rest of the economy. The October report should tell the tale of whether September was fool’s gold or the real thing.
Tags
Who is online
69 visitors
900,000 added jobs with unprecedented resistance by all those who don't want Trump to succeed, thereby not wanting the United States to succeed is a real accomplishment. They don't want an outsider to reveal to the American people just how much they have been fooling them for all these years.
Hype much? Can you explain what was unprecedented and what thee people did to resist?
Sounds like you haven't been keeping up.
Sure looks like it.
Sounds like you really don't know how to read the report...
The 906000 being touted is not NEW jobs. That and the table B report which is the one used as it is the PAYROLL report is called a divergence.
Like I said...Hype much?
The gullible have arrived! Month to month 180,000 jobs....now from a different table you're being led like sheep to believe that almost 1,000,000 jobs were added in September which would be 5 times the average.
So, who's not keeping up? Does it really "Look like it"?
And what was the unprecedented amount of resistance? Wow! Some are soooo easy!
We're definitely going to see a jump, especially in the construction market. The October report will probably be something worth celebrating.
I know in my small city in Florida the roofers and contractors are months backlogged, building material orders will be up, hiring, if only temporary will be especially appreciated by the retail sector as the holidays approach.
But make no mistake about it, if someone up there doesn't pay attention we're headed for a crash...maybe not as bad but a hefty recession just the same.
Thanks, California too. Napa Valley will be buzzing with contractors.
The construction will have to go on without me, that's a young man's game at the labor level. I gave up contracting in the early 2000's and switched to wholesale I/E. Even that I am retiring from soon. Just waiting for Momma to call it a day actually. Them I'm going to show her why I made her get a passport.
I've already been all over, Africa, ME, Europe, and western Asia. She's never stepped out of the country, I'd like to give her that before it's too late.
So the only thing you prove here is you're terrible at math and have no clue how to read a jobs report.
"Hurricanes Harvey and Irma damaged not only Texas and Florida but also the U.S. jobs picture, as payrolls fell by 33,000 in September. That drop came even as the unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low of 4.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The jobs loss was the first monthly decline in seven years, when the economy was still pulling out of the Great Recession."
www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/us-lost-33000-jobs-in-sept-vs-90000-jobs-increase-expected.html
Oh my god! I read this "report" the BLS and statistics claim or backs up NOTHING of the sort! There's NOTHING on the BLS that backs up the claim that 905K jobs were created! i.e. NEW
Newsflash you cant be skeptical of something and then claim that it backs up your point at the same time!
If there were 906,000 new jobs in one month Trump would be tweeting about it every 5 minutes , or 288 times a day.
I've tried to read a little about this , and it seems the 906,000 figure is people reporting that they are employed, as opposed to employers saying they have hired people. In other words, people say they are self-employed. Self-employed would include those who say they have a business of some sort but don't make any money.
Hard to know what this figure means and the two or three articles I've looked at don't seem to know either.