Exclusive: As elections near, many older, educated, white voters shift away from Trump's party
(Reuters) - Older, white, educated voters helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2016. Now, they are trending toward Democrats in such numbers that their ballots could tip the scales in tight congressional races from New Jersey to California, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll and a data analysis of competitive districts shows.
Nationwide, whites over the age of 60 with college degrees now favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a 2-point margin, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polling during the first three months of the year. During the same period in 2016, that same group favored Republicans for Congress by 10 percentage points.
The 12-point swing is one of the largest shifts in support toward Democrats that the Reuters/Ipsos poll has measured over the past two years. If that trend continues, Republicans will struggle to keep control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, in the November elections, potentially dooming President Donald Trump's legislative agenda. (Link )
“The real core for the Republicans is white, older white, and if they’re losing ground there, they’re going to have a tsunami,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who closely tracks political races. “If that continues to November, they’re toast.”
They said the same thing leading up to the last Presidential Election.
This elderly white male would rather cut off my right hand than use it to vote for Trump. I have loathed him from the first I heard of him and his birther nonsense.
John Camm has been a Republican since the Nixon Administration, but the 63-year-old Tucson accountant says he will likely support a Democrat for Congress in November. He is splitting with his party over access to health insurance as well as its recent overhaul of the nation's income tax system. He also supports gun control measures that the party has rejected.
"I'm a moderate Republican, and yet my party has run away from that," Camm said. "So give me a moderate Democrat."
Camm is not alone in his worries about healthcare. The number of educated older adults choosing "healthcare" in the Reuters/Ipsos poll as their top issue nearly tripled over the past two years, from 8 percent to 21 percent.
When a Dem can win a statewide race in effing Alabama you know something significant is happening.
Remember what Tip O'Neill said about politics. It will apply this year as well.
I thought Trump and his minions were republicans.
Yes-- and that's probably why Obama (a Democrat) was never able to get elected as president, despite actually running for office for the office not once but two times!
/sarc
I think the message both parties are missing , and I am talking about the extremes of both parties, is that centrist candidates , meaning those truly in the center ( not the center of their own parties ) has the greatest chances for being elected .
the link also warns not to count on single issues to decide elections where the GOP loses in healthcare , they might make up in another issue.
the link also warns not to count on single issues to decide elections where the GOP loses in healthcare , they might make up in another issue.
Tat's true, but this time there's another major factor as well-- the trump factor. Which might help candidfates in some races, but not in others. (And given Trump's low popularity generally, that may be the main thing that throws the next election to the Democrats)
I don't think it's surprising. Many older Americans, White, Black, Hispanic, etc., know that after creating the massive deficit increase the GOP did with their tax cut for the rich Ryan and McConnell were already talking about going after Social Security and Medicare before it even passed to pay for it. No older person or a younger person who doesn't want mom and dad moving in with them wants that and Ryan and McConnell are serious about trying.
Older people are not concerned about Medicare and Social Security, because neither one is not going away or close to being changed any. They also don't care all that much for deficits, because those won't be going away either.
Is that a Freudian Slip or do you admit the gop wants to eliminate Medicare and Social Security?
We all know if Lyin' Ryan had his way, social security would be privatized and payments would be reduced. He is a hypocrite considering he used SS after his father died to get a college education. Good for him, bad for the rest of us.
Did you not read the whole sentence, (deleted) ? because neither one is not going away or close to being changed any.
CoC {SP}
Ryan got his so now he doesn't give one rip when others suffer life's capriciousness...
I quoted you exactly. That double negative on your part does not reflect badly on my capacities...
(deleted) ? because neither one is not going away or close to being changed any.
Just testing the limits!
Opps! That one slipped by my usually careful scrutiny. Good catch!
Add to that the number of old teabag and thumper relics that are rapidly approaching their expiration dates without any significant signs of reinforcement from the younger generations. Bwah ha ha, too fucking bad, huh?
It is time the damn gop goes the way of the Dodo Bird and the Whig Party unto utter extinction.
There are good reasons the once Grand Old Party of Lincoln is now known merely as "the gop"...
Please tell us why people will trust and vote for Democrats this fall. What has your party done to improve the lives of the people?
The only things they seem good at are organizing protests, wearing funny hats and screaming at the sky.
Sounds like a Trump Rally. Olde goobers gathered in MAGA hats screaming, "We Want Our Country Back"...
And don't forget that only people who live rural are "real americans" and "real patriots"....what a bunch of marlarky.
I answered this question in a previous thread for you, from which you disappeared with no reply.
Democrats push to:
Republicans push to:
Charlottesville
No, for more lighter fluid for the tiki torches. Nobody could see their nazi and confederate flags.
And if you can't afford it, or the insurance for it???
Obamacare was the law, Republicans are taking that away, there is nothing to prevent them from also changing or eliminating minimum wage laws. And you are correct, blue states are increasing minimum wage, red states are fighting any increase, and some GOP Senators (and Presidents) have advocated eliminating it.
States want to legalize marijuana, what does Jeff Sessions feel about it? Because of his beliefs he has taken actions to over-rule those states with federal law.
Deleted CoC {SP}
Country
Secondary per-pupil spending
Austria
$13,607
Luxembourg
$16,182
Norway
$13,939
Switzerland
$15,891
United States
$12,731
That yellow liquid that Trump is giving you is not really lemonade you know.
Here's how the tax bill will affect the middle class in every US state
3 Things the GOP Isn't Telling You About the New Tax Bill
Guess who loses with Trump's tax plan?
The Republican Tax Plan Contains More Middle-Class Pain Than Even Its Critics Are Saying
The 7 Myths of the GOP Tax Bill
And the tax payers will be paying for it. Is that really your idea of "affordability".
Just the poor ones that cannot afford homes or healthcare. You know the ones that Republicans DO NOT care about...
Those goalposts are pretty heavy, don't hurt your back from moving them around so much. Remember, lift with your legs, not your back.
Skirting the CoC [ph]
It may not be so much about what the Dems did or didn't do-- after all they didin't have control of the presidency or even control of either house of Congress). Rather, its more about what Trump didn't do. And worse yet-- many ofthe things that he actually did do-- that were horrendous.
Trump is a clear and present danger to America and the world as long as he is in office, Tex, you're too blindly partisan to ever allow yourself to see this obvious truth.
I don't get worked up about Trump either, I just laugh, but then, I don't life seriously at all. I certainly understand why other people are worked up about Trump, because, again, he's a clear and present danger, dangerously ignorant, dangerously stupid, dangerously emotionally unbalanced. It's like having a five-year-old who throws temper tantrums for a president. When the lying idiot was elected, I said the best we could hope for was that he doesn't start a nuclear war and that feeling hasn't changed.
Like I said, other people who feel the way I do ARE worked up and for good reason, but, like I also said, I don't take life itself seriously at all, so I'm not. I wouldn't even get worked up if the screwball actually DID start dropping nukes. How about you Tex? I'm guessing you WOULD get worked up but you'd blame it on Obama.
If they were greedy they would want more from me but they are allowing me to keep more of what is mine. That is the opposite of greedy. It is the greedy leftists that want to steal from me and give to themselves.