Pandemic decision-making: Why Humans aren't wired to understand the coronavirus
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
When people make decisions, psychologists have found, two main systems influence their thinking and decision-making: gut feelings and logical analysis.
One is more immediate and based on intuition. The other is slower, more thoughtful and based on evidence.
"The fast-thinking and gut feelings usually dominate," said Paul Slovic, a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon and author of several books on risk perception and behavioral sciences. "This is because it's natural and easy, and most of the time we trust our intuitions to give us good guidance in our daily lives."
Human intuition, however, is not particularly well geared to a pandemic.
Around the world, the coronavirus has forced schools to close, economies to stall and countries to lock down their borders. It has also solicited a wide range of reactions from people, many of which psychologists say show just how difficult it can be for the human mind to comprehend risk.
That mental disconnect can be explained by how humans react to fear and their perception of risk — and the biases that color both. The concept of risk is difficult for the human mind to grasp because it's typically based on perceived threats rather than any quantifiable measure of the threat itself, Slovic said.
"Danger is real, but risk is a construct that has many different meanings and definitions," Slovic said. "It's a word we attach to things that are dangerous to try to gauge how dangerous they are to us."
Slovic and his colleagues have conducted extensive research showing that from a psychological standpoint, risk is subjective.
"It's based on judgments and assumptions," he said. "And we basically base these judgments on our feelings."
Even before the coronavirus spread widely in the U.S., fear of the pathogen was high, which led people in some cities to hoard toilet paper and other supplies. And following reports that the virus emerged in Wuhan, China, cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York reported racist attacks against Asian Americans.
When there is a lack of information, emotions can fill in the gaps, and when those emotions are miscalibrated, they can lead to bad judgment — or dangerous behavior.
"When you don't have enough information or you don't have accurate information, the fear you're feeling makes every threat seem much more likely," said David DeSteno, a professor of psychology at Northeastern University in Boston.
On the other hand, there have been instances of people not taking the coronavirus threat seriously enough. In the U.S., the federal government has been criticized for its slow response. On Feb. 28, President Donald Trump downplayed the virus' threat at a rally, accusing Democrats of overhyping the outbreak.
And even after some states enacted strict, statewide stay-at-home orders to slow the spread of the coronavirus, some governors resisted issuing similar social distancing measures. As of Wednesday, five states had no official stay-at-home orders , even though Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said last week that he doesn't understand why Americans in all states aren't operating under the same guidelines.
Part of the reason is that responses to the outbreak have become politically charged, according to Slovic.
"Even in this case, where we have a devastating reality that should be bringing us all together, we still see partisan divisions," he said.
That introduces biases into the mix, which can sway people's perceptions. With social media, for example, information can be passed around rapidly, but so can misinformation.
"We tend to tailor it so that we only watch the stuff that tells us what we want to believe or things along our own ideological biases," Slovic said. "This all leads to tremendous polarization."
Even without biases, pandemics can be particularly difficult to comprehend because they operate on the principle of exponential growth. In other words, outbreaks can escalate quickly. A location with one infection could see hundreds after a week, multiplying into the thousands not long after.
"The way the virus spreads, everything is under control until it isn't — that's the nature of exponential growth," Slovic said. "Our minds think linearly, at a constant rate of growth, but this is a nonlinear process. It's a natural tendency for most of us to underestimate the speed at which an exponential process will take off, and then suddenly it overwhelms us."
Slovic said he worries that the same false sense of comfort drives many people to downplay the dangers of climate change.
"We're reacting very strongly to this pandemic now because the crisis is very close to us," he said. "Fortunately, we don't have these pandemics very often, but we do have some very serious natural disasters, whether it's hurricanes, floods, earthquakes or massive forest fires. Yet we can be rather blasé about natural disasters, and even when they hit, people go back to the same places and rebuild and expose themselves to similar risks again."
Apossible explanation for this imbalance is that the coronavirus and COVID-19, the disease it causes, are new.
"The unknown factor definitely makes it worse," DeSteno said. "It's a new virus, so nobody has immunity to it. Anybody can succumb to it, so it's almost universal."
The virus is also an invisible threat, which can heighten its perceived risk, according to DeSteno.
"If there's a flood or a fire, you can see that," he said. "Here, you can't see germs, so we don't know where they are, and that means they could be anywhere."
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Back in the day, so to speak, human beings were used to plagues and mass sudden deaths from natural causes. Pre the dawn of modern medicine, the middle ages bubonic plagues, and then smallpox, killed large swaths of regional populations. Even as late as 1918 there was a worldwide epidemic that killed tens of millions.
In 2020 we dont understand why it cannot be "dealt with" , as modern medicine, so seemingly easily, eliminates or cures or manages so many other health threats.
One of my nephews and his wife surprised me yesterday by bringing me a large tray of home made cheesecake. After my niece in law knocked on the door with the treat, I saw my nephew sitting in the car out at the curb and walked out to talk to him. He is a conservative Fox News type so I was not surprised to hear that he is disgusted with all the closures and stay in place "orders". They have 5 teenagers living at home, so they have basically 7 grown people living in "lockdown" under one roof. My nephew is a Chicago fireman so he is gone 1/3 of the time (CFD is 24 hours on duty, then 48 off).
So to give him a broader perspective I told him his kids will be talking about this for the rest of their lives, that it is a major, historic, global event, and that all of us are going through something that may change the way people think about the world. To my surprise, he somewhat agreed, gruntingly, and his wife totally agreed. She is somewhat conservative too, although not as much as her husband. She totally thinks the restrictions and closures are appropriate and necessary. Maybe women have more concern for health and safety.
Good and Accurate article.
It is really difficult for me to comprehend how this still remains so partisan, but i realize every knock on their Trump, they take personally. It is about the TRUTH, that Trump rarely provides, and even as they witness him lying incessantly, they still side with him. It is Cult like, and that should concern ALL.
There are so many who refuse to even consider critical thinking skills, thus Y i am critical, of their thinking skills.
They can't even entertain reading a story or watching another station, than one which touts their preferred beliefs.
That's not how reality works.
The TRUTH is the TRUTH
and it has NEVER been more obvious than NOW, that TRUMP is extremely LOOSE
with it, and it jeopardises all of US.
There you have it......! Or more to the point, what so many have lost or refuse to use.
In my 60+ years, I have come to the conclusion that just plain thinking is too difficult, much less critical thinking.
The predisposition to be able to take in data and act on it with respect to the virus...... that's clearly a two step process. It doesn't take much to educate yourself in the intranet age. The biggest thing is that you have to want to do it.
For a number of reasons, it would seem that America has lost a chunk of it's critical thinking skills. Now couple that with loss of the lessons learned by the greatest generation of national sacrifice for the greater good and the opportunists that devolved us into political tribalism. It's no wonder that we find ourselves left with reality show stars posing as national leaders, and talking heads that care more about personal ratings and selling advertising as we impotently try to save our selves from this virus.
You have to read, evaluate for supportive truths all while putting your political predisposition and religious leanings in the shit-can. Decisions based upon the truths found in peer review science are the only way forward. The snake oil salesmen are only out for themselves.
Screw team red, and blue...... Team white...those in lab coats are the ones we best be listening to for our personal and national survival.
Couldn't have put it better.
Used to work as an environmental investigator in the field for a few 3 letter agencies, so rarely wore my white lab coats. Mostly wore camo under the guise of a bird watcher while taking pictures, soil, air and water samples at suspected future superfund sites. Luckily never caught the dreaded never-get-overs from the toxins I was wading through or got shot by security.
Did manage to provide substantial evidence against the Kochs and other serial polluters a few times although the charges were normally dropped after enough money changed hands and I never was allowed to testify in court (probably a very good thing). The polluters just kept polluting and still do to this day. The fines were/are only slaps on the hand. SOP for major polluters.
Broke a lawyers nose, grabbed one of my bosses by the throat and slammed him into a wall then retired after I was told to back off from and shut up about a mega polluter case.
Since this was SOP for government environmental agencies way back in the day, Imagine what it is like now under Trump. Scott Pruitt as head of EPA for christ's sake?!?!?
There is no longer a federally funded agency that actually cares about a healthy environment.
Trump is now struggling to find any scientist of standing that will have anything to do with him.
Thankfully a few strong state governors and local leaders are attempting to fill the wide gap that Trump and Fox have opened between far right wing denialism and scientific reality.
The Koch brothers are a perfect example of what libertarians would do if they got the chance. Lift all regulations, pollute as they saw fit towards maximizing their profits. So few understand that laws and regulation are there to protect our citizens from those that place wealth accumulation above all else.
Pitty Kansas wasn't allowed to compete for the national championship this year. They had better than a good chance to cut down the nets!
Stay healthy!
These psycho-babble analyses seem to always attempt to individualize response to crisis. But the underlying problem being overlooked is that humans do not think at scale. Humans focus their attention upon their own little microcosm; humans do not naturally think in terms of macrocosm. Thinking at a larger scale requires more than good thoughts and empathy.
think in terms of macrocosm.
Some do; some don't. Been fighting the good fight against polluters for my whole adult life.
After a bachelors in environmental science, went back to college to specialize in AGW.
Ended up specializing in the Heartland Institute and their paid science deniers.
For them, it's all about the money.