The Hill's Campaign Report: New polls show Biden leading by landslide margins | TheHill
Category: News & Politics
Via: jbb • 6 years ago • 58 commentsBy: Jonathan Easley, Julia Manchester and Max Greenwood (TheHill)
It surely looks like Trumpism is already a yuge failure!
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
By Jonathan Easley, Julia Manchester and Max Greenwood Tweet Share More
Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.
We're Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here's what we're watching today on the campaign trail.
LEADING THE DAY:
New polling data released on Wednesday finds presumptive Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden campaign slams Trump's Rose Garden event as 'sad affair'New shutdowns add to Trump woesCNN cuts away from Trump's 'campaign-type' Rose Garden speechMORE widening his lead over President TrumpDonald John TrumpIvanka Trump pitches Goya Foods products on TwitterSessions defends recusal: 'I leave elected office with my integrity intact'Former White House physician Ronny Jackson wins Texas runoffMORE.
The surveys show Biden ahead by landslide margins and are certain to set off alarms among Republicans, who could lose both the White House and the Senate if the president's numbers don't improve.
A new national poll from Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by 15 points, 52 percent to 37 percent. That's a 7 point jump over the same poll from last month.
The survey found Trump's approval job approval rating falling by 6 points to 36 percent, against 60 percent who disapprove.
"Yes, there's still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
A Monmouth University survey found Biden leading Trump by 13 points in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania. Trump carried the state by less than 1 point in 2016 and it is a key piece to his reelection strategy.
Republican Rep. Mike KellyGeorge (Mike) Joseph KellyThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, MaineRepublicans say Biden energy plan will help GOP in rust belt statesGOP lawmaker: Don't believe polls showing Trump behind BidenMORE (Pa.) said this week that polls in Pennsylvania can't be trusted because they don't take into account Trump's support from those who turned out to vote for the first time ever in 2016.
Kelly argued that "likely voter" models used by many pollsters are not sampling those first-time voters.
But Trump actually does better in Monmouth's "likely voter" model than he does when Monmouth tested all registered voters in the state.
When Monmouth considered a high-turnout election of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 10 points. When Monmouth considered a low-turnout election of likely voters, Biden's lead narrows to 7 points.
"Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016," said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray.
A CNBC-Change Research survey found Trump's job approval rating hit a record low of 45 percent among likely voters in the six core battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
And a new analysis from the pro-Biden super PAC Priorities USA found Biden ahead in all six battleground states. If the election were held today, Priorities USA projects that Biden would win 278 Electoral College votes, compared with 143 for Trump, with 56 leaning toward Biden and 61 leaning toward Trump.
-- Jonathan Easley
READ MORE:
Biden leads Trump by 15 points in latest Quinnipiac poll, by Max Greenwood
Biden leads Trump by 13 points in Pennsylvania: poll, by Jonathan
Trump approval at record low among battleground voters: poll, by Zack Budryk
FROM THE TRAIL:
The Trump campaign is doubling down on its message of "law and order" with an ad released Wednesday telling Americans they "won't be safe" if presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is elected president. Tal Axelrod reports.
Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC and the main outside group supporting Biden's presidential bid, is investing $24 million in an effort to encourage Black and Latinx voters in key battleground states to vote by mail. The Hill's Jonathan Easley reports.
FROM CONGRESS AND THE STATES:
The Senate matchups in Texas, Alabama and Maine are set.
Former Air Force helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar defeated state Sen. Royce West in the Democratic runoff to challenge Sen. John CornynJohn CornynMJ Hegar wins Democratic battle to challenge John CornynThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, Maine5 key races to watch on TuesdayMORE (R-Texas) in November. In Maine, state House Speaker Sara Gideon beat out two progressive Democrats in the primary to face Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsSara Gideon wins Democratic race to challenge Susan CollinsThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, MaineIllinois House Republican leader won't attend GOP convention in Florida: 'It's not going to be a safe environment'MORE (R-Maine). And in Alabama, Tommy Tuberville, the Trump-backed former Auburn University football coach, vanquished Jeff Sessions, who had been trying to win back his old Senate seat.
A few other highlights:
— Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician, appears likely to return to Washington after he won his House primary runoff in Texas's 13th District.
— Candace Valenzuela beat retired Air Force Col. Kim Olson in the Democratic primary runoff in Texas's 24th District.
— Former Rep. Pete SessionsPeter Anderson SessionsPete Sessions wins GOP runoff in comeback bidThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, Maine5 key races to watch on TuesdayMORE (R-Texas), who lost his reelection bid in Texas's 32nd District to Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) in 2018, won a GOP primary runoff in the state's 17th District on Tuesday as he tries to get back to Washington.
One race that remains unresolved is the Republican runoff in Texas's 23rd District, where Tony Gonzales, who's backed by Trump, and Raul Reyes, who's endorsed by Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzMJ Hegar wins Democratic battle to challenge John CornynThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, Maine5 key races to watch on TuesdayMORE (R-Texas), remain separated by only seven votes. There are still some mail-in ballots and provisional ballots that need to be counted, but the ultra-close margin has left the race undecided for the time being.
An outside group linked to several Democratic groups is running TV ads in Kansas's Republican Senate primary. Taken at face value, the ad appears to attack both former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Rep. Roger MarshallRoger W. MarshallThe Hill's Campaign Report: Runoff elections in Texas, Alabama set for TuesdayConservative group launches ad campaign for Rep. Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate raceBollier raises .7 million in second quarter in Kansas Senate raceMORE (R), the preferred candidate of Senate Republican leaders. But it may as well be a positive spot for Kobach, whom it casts as "too conservative" and uncompromising on issues like Trump's proposed border wall. The Kansas Senate primary is slated for Aug. 4, and some Republicans fear a win for Kobach could cost them in the general election. The Hill's Reid Wilson reports.
MONEY WATCH:
One month after she lost in the Democratic primary for Georgia's 7th District, Nabilah Islam is launching a new PAC with the hope of providing support to other progressive contenders.
The group, known as the Progressive List, launched on Wednesday and will help get money to candidates in the early stages of their primary campaigns. Islam says the group will also give candidates the proper tools and resources to fundraise and reach out to voters.
"This is something that didn't really exist when I was a candidate," Islam told The Hill. "It would have been really helpful had an organization really listed my candidacy earlier on rather than waiting until the last month or two."
"We're going to be certainly targeting transformational candidates, progressives [who] we believe that look like their districts, are working class, running on progressive policies, but being on the ground with them day one," she continued. "Making sure they have a check list--do you have a good campaign manager? Do you have progressive consultants that are good? Set the stage for them so that they have the tools to be successful."
Meanwhile, the former Republicans running the Lincoln Project say they raised $16.8 million in the second quarter of 2020 as the group ramps up its anti-Trump efforts ahead of the general election. Tal reports.
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Trump and the damn gop are due for an epic and well deserved asswhoopin on November 3rd!
Let's not get complacent or celebrate too soon. It is very good news, of course. The new NBC/WSJ poll today has Biden up by 11 points, 72% say the country is on the wrong track and 50% say there is "No chance" they will vote for Trump.
Turn out will be everything. The GOP is going to try massive voter suppression. We need to make certain that every one gets out and votes.
There is no complacency here. It is all about the battleground states. Democrats must go all out in Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan and Arizona. After those the other pickups will be gravy...
Trump is losing American women's vote by 20%.
I'm not suggesting that you are. I'm talking about all of us. We need a Blue Tsunami!
It is definitely about the battleground states. The Democrats also need to go all out in Wisconsin and Ohio, both states Trump took last time. Frankly, Democrats need to go all out in all 50 states to the extent that resources are available. Make the Republicans defend everywhere. This is the fight of a lifetime...
You have to love that.
I find hope in that statistic since women vote!
Agreed, but we can't go thin in battleground...
Apparently, women vote in greater numbers than men. It is a very important statistic.
No, we can't. That is why I said to the extent that resources are available. As you correctly pointed out, the battleground states are the priority.
Biden has always been respected on both sides of the aisle.
Trump has lost all respect he ever had from the king makers.
Seems that pretty much everybody now acknowledges Trump's progressing insanity.
Is there really a choice?
Even staunch republicans are voting for Biden.
This poll gives me little hope if I'm being honest. Biden's lead should be much larger if people have any respect for the rule of law, our Constitution, our principles and values. Clearly there is a faction of voters who aren't bothered about all the corruption going on.
It is hard to believe Trump still has any supporters.
My point exactly. How totally moralless and broken can these people be. It's just shocking to me that he continues to retain this core group of voters.
No, considering what a FAILURE Trump is it is hard to believe he has any supporters at all...
Hillary won the popular vote by 3% but still lost the Electoral College. Today it looks like Trump is losing the popular vote by 10-15%...
No, Trump cannot win losing by +10%!
If we must have a puppet as president, I would prefer one of these:
You prefer Russian puppets to American Democrats?
trumpsters share more common ground with russians...
Ivanka Trump pitches Goya Foods products
As a gov employee, she is breaking the law by doing that. Go ahead Ivanka, give prosecutors more ammo to put you away once daddy is sent packing.
'I leave elected office with my integrity intact'
What integrity?
got her tits blown up and her mouth made smaller. oh yeah, daddy's little girl.....
Ivanka Trump pitches Goya Foods products
As a gov employee, she is breaking the law by doing that. Go ahead Ivanka, give prosecutors more ammo to put you away once daddy is sent packing.
'I leave elected office with my integrity intact'
What integrity?
Got E-Coli? Ivanka will if she eats cold canned beans! Not to mention being terribly gassy...
She will end up at Club Fed where the food is very good. Actually, the prison I was in actually had pretty good food plus we had the canteen and quarterly packages where you can get great foodstuffs and cook on your own.
No way to tell if Ivanka is gassier than normal?
Got E-Coli? Goya Does...
Read it and weep! Didn't you know about Goya?
Got Salmonella? Goya Products DO!
Goya's Got Salmonella. You will too if you eat it!
Well, at least I know the difference between a garbanzo bean and a chick pea...
Trump never had a garbanzo bean on his face!
Got Salmonella? Goya Products DO!
Keep this in perspective.
And
Also
bolding mine...