Pollster Frank Luntz: If Trump defies polls again in 2020, 'my profession is done' | TheHill
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News on Thursday night that if poll predictions are wrong about the 2020 election between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden his "profession is done" in terms of faith and confidence from the public.
Recent polls show Biden ahead nationally in some polls by double digits, with the former vice president ahead in the majority of battleground states. Biden is also competing with Trump in states like Georgia and Texas, which are normally carried by Republican candidates.
The assessment comes nearly four years after President Trump defied almost all polls, upsetting former Secretary of State Hillary Clintonin the 2016 presidential election by winning the Electoral College, 304-227.
Trump, however, lost the popular vote.
Fox News anchor Bret Baier asked Luntz during the network's pre-debate coverage on Thursday night what the consequences would be for pollsters if the industry gets it wrong again.
"Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that's my industry — at least partially — but the public will have no faith. No confidence. Right now, the biggest issue is the trust deficit. And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016. So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5- or 6-point lead, my profession is done."
Many election forecasts, including from The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight, gave Clinton more than a 70 percent chance of winning the morning of Nov. 8, 2016.
On Oct. 21, 2016, the Times "Upshot" even went as high as giving the former secretary of State a 93 percent chance to take the White House.
The RealClearPolitics index of polls gave Clinton a 3.2 percent advantage nationally on the eve of the election. The Democratic nominee captured the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points.
Biden currently leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics index of polls in key battleground states by 4.1 percentage points
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I have an even more dire prediction - if America re-elects a known pathological liar, crook , bigot, moron, and cheat, in the face of overwhelming evidence that he is all those things, our country is done.
… then it just proves how broken things are, but I wouldn't say we're done. We've been through a civil war, been through the fight for civil rights and in many ways are still in that fight, but we are resilient and those angry bitter bigots that raise their ugly heads every few generations will continue to diminish and eventually disappear no matter how much they gnash their teeth and claw for their sick racist ideology's survival.
Even if we get the monumental loser and embarrassment dishonest Donald for another four years and continue to be the laughing stock around the world, we will eventually build back better because the majority of America keeps moving forward regardless of the bitter bigots trying to claw their way back to the 1950's pre-Brown v Board, pre-civil rights act and pre-voting rights act. No matter how many conservative judges they appoint they will never be able to stop the progress we strive for, they will never be able to prevent us from making a more perfect union as our founders intended.
I think the country will be done as we have known it. There will be much more activism, much more civil disobedience, and much more disregard by young people for law and order. When a nation elevates a scumbag like Trump to it's national pinnacle , and then doubles down four years later and does it again, there will be hell to pay in one form or another.
The national character of the United States is on the line. If we fail that test in this election we will no longer have the same country we grew up with.
There is nothing written in the skies or heavens that proclaims that the United States of America must go on forever. Every empire falls and fades away. Re-electing trump would be a clear sign of ethical and moral degeneracy.
I don't disagree, I'm just saying that we are resilient and even if our character is damaged by this bigoted lying misogynistic sexual predator in the oval office, we will eventually wipe his disgusting shit stains off the white house.
Gonna take a lot of work. But I guess with some heavy duty bleach and elbow grease we'll git 'er done!
Gonna be hard to do with his lasting damage. Now he is making it so he can fire civil servants on the spot. He is changing the rules so he can hire and fire at will without any union input.
Funny thing though, when the other side is in control and can use the tools they are putting in place against them, I bet they all start crying foul.
How dare they use our own rules against us.
Damn skippy, but anything worth doing isn't easy.
It took two decades for the white supremacist's of the 1950's and 1960's to quiet down and nearly be forgotten, and we all got back to some semblance or normality, but after Trump bringing them back to the surface and giving them cover it may take another few decades to kick these shit eating conservative racists back into their holes. P.S. If you're either a shit eater or a conservative but not an overt racist then this comment is not about you...
Yeah, we were doing so terribly for the three plus years prior to the Pandemic right John?
Your comment just reeks of partisan hatred and butthurt but ...... SOSDD
Donald Trump is not fit to hold office in a great nation. He's a pathological liar, a crook, a bigot , a moron, and a cheat. And other unsavory things . He's not fit to hold office.
He doesnt become fit for office because you like his policies. You are part of the problem.
If Bernie Madoff, a pathological liar who cheated people out of hundreds of millions of dollars, many of whom absolutely could not afford the loss, somehow became president and lowered your taxes, would you say HE was fit for office ?
This has nothing to do with "butthurt" or Hillary, it has to do with the national character of our country.
Is that any different than a lot of you all thinking and saying things were just horrible prior to donald....
He's not wrong. If Trump wins, whatever faith people have in polling will be toast.
I haven't had any faith in polling for a while now. I refuse to talk to some stranger who calls me and asks questions about who I support. Especially in this day and age you have no clue as to who the person on the other end of the call is or what their intentions really are. I will admit I did find it funny in 2016. I get up early as part of my team is offshore so I'm normally up between 3:00 and 4:00am CT to meet with them before my onshore team gets started, so I normally go to bed early. They hadn't called a lot of the East Coast states back in 2016 when I turned the TV off to go to bed so I went to sleep confident with the general knowledge that HRC was going to win and become our next president. Imagine my surprise waking up the next morning.
But no, I've not had a lot of faith in polling for a long time. it's too easy to get the results you want by slanting the questions.