Satellite images show damage at Russian air base in Crimea
Category: News & Politics
Via: perrie-halpern • 2 years ago • 18 commentsBy: Yuliya Talmazan and Caroline Radnofsky
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
New satellite images have revealed the heavy damage to a Russian air base in Crimea that was rocked by explosions earlier this week, calling into question Moscow's ability to protect the territory it controls in Ukraine's south.
The pictures, released Thursday, added to a growing belief that the blasts may be the result of Ukrainian attacks, suggesting an ability to strike deep behind enemy lines that could help shift the course of the war.
It comes as Ukraine and Russia traded accusations of new strikes on Europe's largest nuclear plant, in a crisis that has stoked fears of a catastrophe. The United Nations is set to discuss the situation Thursday.
As international leaders raised the alarm about what would be a dramatic development in the conflict, experts and analysts were assessing another.
Kyiv said nine Russian warplanes were destroyed in a series of blasts at the Saki air base in annexed Crimea on Tuesday, while Russia denied any damage and said the incident stemmed from ammunition detonating.
Ukraine has not publicly claimed responsibility for the blasts.
But the satellite images released by Planet Labs, an American public Earth imaging company, appear to contradict Russian assertions.
NBC News analysis of the imagery suggests two buildings in the northeast corner of the base burned to the ground, with what appears to be the burned-out wreckage of at least six planes visible, and several other planes damaged. NBC News could not independently verify if all the aircraft were airworthy.
Satellite images taken Tuesday and Wednesday appear to contradict Russian assertions that no aircraft were damaged in explosions at the Saki air base in annexed Crimea.Planet Labs
From the satellite imagery, it's clear that the scope of the damage at the Saki air base is quite extensive, said Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst and the head of intelligence at Le Beck consultancy.
"It may be hard to gauge which of the aircraft are fully destroyed or only damaged, but what's evident from the images is that at least a dozen of attack aircraft have been put out of combat for a while," he said.
"Looking at the pictures, what strikes me is how precise this attack was," Horowitz added.
Whatever exactly happened at the air base, the apparent escalation in Crimea could prove significant strategically and symbolically.
The peninsula holds huge value for both Moscow, which annexed it in 2014 after a referendum that was not recognized by most of the international community, and Kyiv, which has vowed to reclaim Crimea as its land.
An officially acknowledged attack on Crimea could provoke a strong response from Moscow. Last month, Russia's hawkish former President Dmitry Medvedev promised "judgment day" in the event of an attack on Crimea.
"The symbolism may be most damaging politically for Russia, because there has been a sense that Crimea was almost a red line," said Neil Melvin, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. "This is actually, from the Russian perspective, Russian territory."
Crimea is a popular summer holiday destination for Russians and photos after Tuesday's blasts showed plumes of black smoke rising behind busy golden sand beaches.
Smoke rises from the beach in Saki, Crimea, after explosions were heard near a Russian air base Tuesday. UGC via AP
Ukrainians are intentionally being vague about whether they carried out the attack and how, Horowitz said, likely in an effort to obfuscate the actual weapon behind the attack while also spreading fear among Russian forces.
Not taking responsibility also mitigates the need for Russia to respond to the attack, which is in Kyiv's interest and may also be a precondition for the use of Western-supplied weapons, he added.
The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the damage since that would concede the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems, the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based military think tank, said in the aftermath of the incident.The Ukrainian sinking of Russia's Black Sea flagship in April, a high-profile embarrassment for Moscow, had already revealed their vulnerability in that regard.
Ultimately, the blasts in Crimea could be a prelude to the much-anticipated Ukrainian offensive in the south.
Ukrainian officials were framing the attack as such, the institute said in another assessment Wednesday, suggesting that the "Ukrainian military expects intense fighting in August and September that could decide the outcome of the next phase of the war."
"The strike has put a number of Russian aircraft out of combat, and may limit Russia's ability to stop a Ukrainian attack," Horowitz said. But Ukraine has its work cut out, he added, as Russia has sent a lot of reinforcements to the south and is aware that this may be the next major battle. So Kyiv will need to carry out multiple similar strikes against Russian military bases and weapons depots before launching any major offensive, he said.
Ukraine's south has been the focus of growing international alarm in the past week over the situation at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Thursday for an immediate halt to all military activity near the plant. The Security Council will be briefed later at Moscow's request on what it claims were Ukrainian attacks on the site.
Kyiv has accused Russian forces of using the plant as a "nuclear shield" and being behind the shelling, which raised fears of a disaster worse than Chernobyl. Ukraine's national energy company accused Russia on Thursday of launching new strikes against the plant.
Meanwhile, the Russian state news agency Tass quoted local Russian-installed officials as saying it was the Ukrainian forces behind the fresh shelling of the plant and its nearby town.
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Russia has denied all negative news in connection with Putin's Folly.
Oil depots burn because of lightning?
Trains derail in three different countries when carrying military vehicles?
Ammo depots go up in spectacular explosions because of soldiers smoking?
Tanks explode because of fairy dust igniting?
Only Ukrainians die in Putin's folly. Russian soldiers and mercenaries rule the battlefield. /s
What is interesting is that there have been no articles on the war in Ukraine except for this one. A major war in Europe can and will affect many countries the future of Europe and possibly many parts of the world. Shock waves are being felt in ways, high energy prices, shortage of foodstuffs, and Sweden and Finland joining NATO to name a few.
But NT is more interested in attacking/defending Trump.
Looking at the before and after pictures...
the alleged damage is too precise for missiles.
Revetment after revetment, mostly on the inside of the loop
and three storage areas on the outside of the loop all show wreckage.
Ukrainian SAS have been training with USN Seal teams for many years
and this base is a Ukranian Naval Air Station directly on the water...
Satellite images show a minimum of 9 planes destroyed and massive damage to the airport.
Putin does not want the Russian people to find out the extent the Ukrainians have damaged the Russian military in what is ''Putin's foley''.
Rember Putin said that they gave up Snake Island as a gesture of goodwill. What he forgot to mention was they did that after Ukraine demolished the Russian military on Snake Island.
Don't forget the films of Harpoon like missiles striking ships at sea, including the Moskva (Moscow)
which the Russian military says were staged because the real cause was
also "a sailor smoking near ammunition".
The satellite images that have been published show the runways are undamaged. Operational runways means the aircraft can be replaced in a matter of a few hours and munitions can be replaced in a day.
If this was a missile attack then it was extraordinarily inept. The published images show that the damage is actually superficial and won't affect operation of the airbase. No wonder the Ukrainians aren't claiming responsibility.
I actually thought that. It looks operational.
Actually, it looks like one for one - a perfect score. A runway can be replaced in a few hours, meaning that a missile was essentially wasted. The stuff in the picture is forever junk.
If they were missiles what type of missiles did Ukraine use? The Himars that they have do not have the range to reach Crimea from anywhere in Ukraine-held territory. So that leaves Ukraine Special Ops and Partisan fighters or does it really?
There are two NATO countries that have the Himars with the longer range missiles that have a 300 k range which if transferred to Ukraine would reach Crimea. Is it possible that one or both of these countries transferred one or more Himars to Ukraine secretly?
Taking out the 7 to 9 fighters and ammo dumps is a major hit on the Russians it is also telling the Russian that no where in Ukraine are they safe. Runways can be repaired rather quickly but 9 top Russian fighters cannot.
Ukraine is hitting the ammo depot, and command headquarters well behind the lines and has done serious damage to the Russian supply lines.
It's roughly 150 nautical miles from Kherson to Saki close to the 185 limit of
the US HIMARS but I do not think Ukraine would risk bringing the HIMArs too close to
Kherson yet.
Since the Himars fly low to the ground and are guided by GPS
the Russians have no air defense because they are looking up for ballistic or cruise
missiles, they only get two or three seconds warning.
Still hard to believe that if some one used 2 HIMARS and launched 12 missiles
that they all scored a direct hit with zero collateral damage.
let the Ruskies believe that, but I'm going with the SAS or saboteurs.
Doesn't take much to set off ammo or a soft target like an SU 27 with some fuel
in the tanks.
Morning... rumblings here the Russians are offering amanesty to prisoners if they go fight in Ukraine...
Oh dear...think they had visions of coming home as conquering heroes.. instead they are returning in body bags...
And some Russian soldiers are now refusing to fight or go to Ukraine and breaking their contracts...
And the rot is starting to set in. Especially when Winter rolls around..just in the process of sending more $$ to Ukraine...always happy to help them out...🇦🇺❤️🇺🇦🐨🦘
I agree it's the most logical choice.
Yes, it is and there is nothing better than rotting Russian military.
They weren't targeted. A, it's an occupied Ukranian Naval Air Station, B, the victory need only be spiritual for the sake of embarrassing the russians and lifting the spirits of the Ukrain.
Not in Russia apparently
It wasn't a missile attack. There are roughly 20 damaged areas and there were no missile reports at all.
The russians just lost at least a dozen aircraft and three piles of munitions one of which was
200 x 200 feet square and possibly another small building upper right, munitions or technical support.
Either they have learned a lesson to keep their capabilities private or it was an inside job.
Either way there are probably 14 less Russian airframes to attack Ukranians with.
Inch by inch they are coming back.
It seems that another Russian air base went up in flames. This one is located in Belarus close to the Ukraine border.
Blasts at Russian Air Base in Belarus Remain a Mystery
They are saying a failed rocket launch? Ok...
Sounds like they shot themselves in the foot.