Not So Fast on Electric Cars

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  vic-eldred  •  one month ago  •  36 comments

By:   Allysia Finley (WSJ)

Not So Fast on Electric Cars
Toyota's CEO delivers a timely warning, and many states echo it.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda recently caused the climate lobby to blow a fuse by speaking a truth about battery electric vehicles that his fellow auto executives dare not. "Just like the fully autonomous cars that we were all supposed to be driving by now," Mr. Toyoda said in Thailand, "I think BEVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe." He added that a "silent majority" in the auto industry share his view, "but they think it's the trend, so they can't speak out loudly."

The Biden administration seems to believe that millions of Americans will rush out to buy electric vehicles if only the government throws enough subsidies at them. Last year's infrastructure bill included $7.5 billion in grants for states to expand their charging networks. But it's a problem when even the states are warning the administration that electric vehicles aren't ready to go mainstream.

Maine notes in a plan submitted to the Federal Highway Administration this summer that “cold temperatures will remain a top challenge” for adoption, since “cold weather reduces EV range and increases charging times.” When temperatures drop to 5 degrees Fahrenheit, the cars achieve only 54% of their quoted range. A vehicle that’s supposed to be able to go 250 miles between charges will make it only 135 miles on average. At 32 degrees—a typical winter day in much of the country— a Tesla Model 3  that in ideal conditions can go 282 miles between charges will make it only 173 miles.

Imagine if the  100 million Americans  who took to the road over the holidays were driving electric cars. How many would have been stranded as temperatures plunged? There wouldn’t be enough tow trucks—or emergency medics—for people freezing in their cars.

The Transportation Department is requiring states to build charging stations every 50 miles along interstate highways and within a mile of off-ramps to reduce the likelihood of these scenarios. But most state electrical grids aren’t built to handle this many charging stations and will thus require expensive upgrades. Illinois, for one, warns of “challenges related to sufficient electric grid capacity, particularly in rural areas of the state.”

Charging stations in rural areas with little traffic are also unlikely to be profitable and could become “stranded assets,” as many states warn. Wyoming says out-of-state traffic from non-Tesla electric vehicles would have to increase 100-fold to cover charger costs under the administration’s rules. Tesla has already scoped out premier charging locations for its proprietary network. Good luck to competitors.

New Mexico warns that “poor station maintenance can lead to stations being perpetually broken and unusable, particularly in rural or hard to access locations. If an EV charging station is built in an area without electrical capacity and infrastructure to support its use, it will be unusable until the appropriate upgrades are installed.”

Arizona says “private businesses may build and operate a station if a grant pays for the first five years of operations and maintenance” but might abandon the project if it later proves unprofitable. Many other states echo this concern, noting that federal funds could result in stranded assets.

The administration aims to build 500,000 stations, but states will likely have to spend their own money to keep them running. Like other federal inducements, these grants may entice states to assume what could become huge financial liabilities.

Federal funds also come with many rules, including “buy America” procurement requirements, which demand that chargers consist of mostly U.S.-made components. New Jersey says these could “delay implementation by several years” since only a few manufacturers can currently meet them. New York also says it will be challenging to comply with the web of federal rules, including the National Environmental Policy Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act of 1970, and a 1960 federal law that bars charging stations in rest areas.

Oh, and labor rules. The administration requires that electrical workers who install and maintain the stations be certified by the union-backed Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Training Program. New Mexico says much of the state lacks contractors that meet this mandate, which will reduce competition and increase costs.

Technical problems abound too. Virginia says fast-charging hardware “has a short track record” and is “prone to malfunctions.” Equipment “previously installed privately in Virginia has had a high failure rate shown in user comments and reports on social media,” and “even compatibility with credit card readers has been unexpectedly complicated.”

A study this spring led by University of California researchers found that more than a quarter of public direct-current fast-charging stations in the San Francisco Bay Area were unusable. Drivers will be playing roulette every time they head to a station. If all this weren’t disconcerting enough, Arizona warns cyber vulnerabilities could compromise customer financial transactions, charging infrastructure, electric vehicles and the grid.

Politicians and auto makers racing to eliminate the internal-combustion engine are bound to crash into technological, logistic and financial realities, as Mr. Toyoda warned. The casualties will be taxpayers, but the administration doesn’t seem to care.


Tags

jrDiscussion - desc
[]
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1  seeder  Vic Eldred    one month ago

The CEO of Toyota? I wonder if the FBI will now censor him, calling it "Russian disinformation?"

It looks like for the near term our basic fuel is going to remain good old fashioned gasoline.

Sorry Joe

 
 
 
Jeremy Retired in NC
Professor Expert
2  Jeremy Retired in NC    one month ago
The Biden administration seems to believe that millions of Americans will rush out to buy electric vehicles if only the government throws enough subsidies at them.

    

Drivers will be playing roulette every time they head to a station. If all this weren’t disconcerting enough, Arizona warns cyber vulnerabilities could compromise customer financial transactions, charging infrastructure, electric vehicles and the grid.

And just like everything else coming out of the Biden Administration - It's pure garbage.

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Guide
3  Greg Jones    one month ago

Electric cars will never account for more than 15-20% of those on the road. As for most trucks, heavy and farm equipment, airplanes, trains, and ships, electric simply won't get the job done.

Wind and solar will never be able to supply our national power needs, especially in winter.

 
 
 
Snuffy
PhD Guide
3.1  Snuffy  replied to  Greg Jones @3    one month ago

I would not say "never" as it's difficult to predict the future and how technology will grow and change over time.  But anybody who states that electric cars are the future within the next 10 years needs to seek professional help as the world is not yet at a place where that is feasible.  

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Guide
3.1.1  1stwarrior  replied to  Snuffy @3.1    one month ago

256

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
3.1.2  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  1stwarrior @3.1.1    one month ago

And it will take about 9 hours to re-charge it!

 
 
 
bccrane
Freshman Silent
3.1.3  bccrane  replied to  Vic Eldred @3.1.2    one month ago

Just took a trip that was more than the range of an EV, it took 5 minutes to refuel the vehicle we were driving and an EV would've took 1/2 hour to an hour to get enough of a charge to get home, not a full charge.

Another problem with the EV's are, by the time they are accepted by more of the populace, going to be out preformed by hydrogen hybrid vehicles, which will be almost as easy to refuel as gas and be as efficient as battery powered EV's.  If I were Elon I would be starting the designs for using hydrogen fuel cells, he already has the drive train platform just replace the batteries with the lighter fuel cells.  Hydrogen is easier to produce from natural gas, oil, and coal than from water.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
3.1.4  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  bccrane @3.1.3    one month ago

All reasons along with the cost why Americans aren't buying it.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Masters Quiet
3.2  Jack_TX  replied to  Greg Jones @3    one month ago
Electric cars will never account for more than 15-20% of those on the road. As for most trucks, heavy and farm equipment, airplanes, trains, and ships, electric simply won't get the job done.

People who say stuff like this sound like they're living in 1900 and talking about how horses are better than cars.

 
 
 
Jasper2529
Professor Participates
4  Jasper2529    one month ago

When Kerry, AOC, Sanders, Buttigieg, and other hypocritical green zealots prove that they've completely transitioned to all-electric/solar energy for themselves, I shall consider doing the same.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
5  Mark in Wyoming     one month ago

I dont see the agri businesses switching over any time soon , not in the next 10 years at least , and not here in wyoming with the weather and other conditions   .

as with anything , battery life should be being looked at in number of service hours , and as a driver of big rigs , thats what matters  not how many miles it can cover .

 Another issue with the ag business would be recharge capability in the fields , doubt they will ever exist out there .

 Then there is the punishment the equipment goes through off road , doubt any current EV on the road can take the same amount of punishment currently faced at the same pace .

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
5.1  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @5    one month ago

Yup, it's going to take a long time.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
5.1.1  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Vic Eldred @5.1    one month ago

IF it ever happens .

EVs likely have their place , its just NOT suited to all applications , and i doubt it ever will be .

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
5.1.2  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @5.1.1    one month ago

Don't tell Joe.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
5.1.3  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Vic Eldred @5.1.2    one month ago

I would never presume to tell Joe anything .

 just as he can not tell me anything since i dont work for him .

IF i were to tell him something , i  rather do it at the ballot box .

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
5.1.4  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @5.1.3    one month ago
i  rather do it at the ballot box .

Unfortunately, you may not get a chance. I doubt the democrats will let him run against a man of sound mind in his 40's.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
5.1.5  JohnRussell  replied to  Vic Eldred @5.1.4    one month ago

DeSantis is going  to prove to be one of the most unlikeable presidential candidates we have seen in a long long time. 

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
5.1.6  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Vic Eldred @5.1.4    one month ago

I will wait to see who is actually on the ballot  when the time comes , right now it falls under champagne dreams and caviar wishes .

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Guide
5.1.7  Greg Jones  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.5    one month ago

No he's not. You're thinking of Trump. DeSantis has not said or done anything that would cause anyone to dislike him...except the usual leftist assholes of course

 
 
 
squiggy
Junior Quiet
5.1.8  squiggy  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.5    one month ago
DeSantis is going  to prove to be one of the most unlikeable presidential candidates we have seen in a long long time.

Not even DeSantis has declared DeSantis is a candidate but with Trump's diminished viability you just have to develop another fictional hate. You guys are a fucking riot.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
5.1.9  Ozzwald  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.5    one month ago
DeSantis is going  to prove to be one of the most unlikeable presidential candidates we have seen in a long long time.

Maybe he should pick Ted Cruz as his running mate.  If you want to look more popular, stand next to someone who is even less popular than you are.

Why Everyone (in Congress) Hates Ted Cruz

quote-i-found-there-was-only-one-way-to-look-thin-hang-out-with-fat-people-rodney-dangerfield-7-16-72.jpg

 
 
 
arkpdx
Professor Participates
5.1.10  arkpdx  replied to  Greg Jones @5.1.7    one month ago
him...except the usual leftist assholes of course

Are there any other kind of leftists?

 
 
 
arkpdx
Professor Participates
5.1.11  arkpdx  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.9    one month ago

Is that why Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he wanted to find someone who was dumber and more incompetent than himself?

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
5.1.12  Ozzwald  replied to  arkpdx @5.1.11    one month ago

Is that why Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he wanted to find someone who was dumber and more incompetent than himself?

No, that was McCain's reason to pick Palin.  Biden's reason was to lock down the minority vote.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
5.1.13  Texan1211  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.12    one month ago
Biden's reason was to lock down the minority vote.

Ever the panderer---describes Joe to a "T". He already HAD the minority vote---a fact most people who follow politics already know. Most people can also surmise that after Jim Clyburn told blacks to vote for Biden it was a done deal.

Try something else to try to Biden-splain why he picked Harris. Something believable this time.

 
 
 
arkpdx
Professor Participates
5.1.14  arkpdx  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.12    one month ago

For Biden it worked both ways. It is hard to believe that he actually found someone more incompetent than he is to run with him

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
5.1.15  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @5.1.6    one month ago

You have a point there.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
5.1.16  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.5    one month ago

How so?

He is the Governor of Florida and he appears to be loved there.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Masters Quiet
5.2  Jack_TX  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @5    one month ago
I dont see the agri businesses switching over any time soon , not in the next 10 years at least , and not here in wyoming with the weather and other conditions   .

Meh.  I think it may happen faster than you expect.  The economics on "not having to buy diesel" get pretty compelling, especially when you can't predict the price of it.

as with anything , battery life should be being looked at in number of service hours , and as a driver of big rigs , thats what matters  not how many miles it can cover .

Serious question because I'm curious... Do you think the fact that electric motors don't actually run while the truck is not moving changes that calculation?  I see how it's relevant with diesel engines, where the service hours don't necessarily have a direct correlation to distance traveled, but I'm curious if that changes with no idling.

 Another issue with the ag business would be recharge capability in the fields , doubt they will ever exist out there .

I think we'll get to a situation where you have batteries you swap out, like we do with power tools... OR... (probably more likely) we'll get charging times down to a few minutes.  They've already developed experimental super-insulated charging cables that can cut passenger car recharge down to 5 minutes or so.

 Then there is the punishment the equipment goes through off road , doubt any current EV on the road can take the same amount of punishment currently faced at the same pace .

Do we think the F150 or GMC electric trucks are more delicate than the gasoline powered versions?  They may be, I dunno.  It seems to me that durability is more about chassis than anything else.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
5.2.1  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Jack_TX @5.2    one month ago

some interesting points you make , though the engine doesnt draw from the battery when not in use , the other things still do such as climate control in the cab  and other accesories in todays trucks . still in the same situation at 40 below in an EV as in a conventional rig , watching your heat source slowly go down to no heat , with an EV stuck on a higheay , your screwed , with a conventional righ well i will say i have seen some truckers in energecies syphon fuel from one truck to put in another to keep them going and warm .

But i might actually pay to see some dude suck on an electrical cable to "syphon " some juice .....(S)

 battery swap has been talked about for OTR  pull into a truck stop near the highway and swap out batteries  in an AG set up , then of course there would be battery costs vs cost of desiel, storage of said batters vs fuel , not exactly practical or really feasable in the field , and for the AG people i tend to work for , extremely cost prohibitive for them . I dont work for large agri-business run by corperate entities .

as for the question of service hrs , i guess once these trucks get on the road we shall find out and be able to determine from the data collected .

 lol right now the EV pick up truck market from just current data  and what its actually capable of vs what exists  on the conventional side , doesnt look too promising , but then again people are expecting EV to do the same things as the conventional counterparts  and EV is not even coming close  in actual preformance .

 
 
 
charger 383
Professor Silent
6  charger 383    one month ago

Not everybody wants an electric car

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Principal
6.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  charger 383 @6    one month ago

I always thought the hybrid was a good idea and it would get around a lot of problems that an all-electric would have.  We hardly ever hear about the Prius any more. 

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
7  Kavika     one month ago

Since all of the problems sited with EVs, I guess that Tesla and Musk will be drowning in red numbers soon along with many other manufacturers. 

Today Tesla's stock price is $109.90 from a high of just over $400. 

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
8  Mark in Wyoming     one month ago

During my evening reading last night , stumbled on a story out of NYC about their nice new EV garbage trucks , grist of the story was that they were not "UP " to taking on the north eastern winters  and the conditions they bring sometimes ....

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
8.1  Ender  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @8    one month ago

I read an article about a man that couldn't charge his Tesla. They are thinking it was too cold. It would only display warming up or something. He ended up not being able to get home and be with his young son for Xmas.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
8.1.1  Mark in Wyoming   replied to  Ender @8.1    one month ago

 the tech isnt that new , its been around a few years , but to me , it seems the "bugs" havent been worked out sufficiently to the point  where it is really feasable in my own particular situation .

 
 

Who is online

Nerm_L
afrayedknot
Drakkonis
Hallux
Jack_TX
Ed-NavDoc
Wishful_thinkin
Tessylo


40 visitors