Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining - Newsweek
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
By Martha McHardy US News Reporter
Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.
FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.
According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.
The polling website said its forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign "fundamentals," such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency.
It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key states: Florida and North Carolina.
Trump previously defeated Biden in both states in 2020, while he held a six-point lead over Biden in Florida in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from that June.
However, he now only leads the current president by four points in Florida. The poll shows that 45 percent of participants plan to vote for Trump, compared to Biden's 41 percent.
It is not the only recent poll to give Trump only a four-point lead in Florida. A June Fox News survey gave Trump 50 percent of the vote, compared to 46 percent for Biden.
However, poll aggregator Race to the White House has Trump on average 7.2 points ahead of Biden in the state, with Biden at 41.9 percent and Trump at 49.1 percent, while the FiveThirtyEight poll shows Biden has a 50 percent chance of winning in the state compared to Biden's 45.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the Republican National Convention Tuesday, July 16, 2024. Recent polls show the Trump's chances of winning the November election are declining.Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the Republican National Convention Tuesday, July 16, 2024. Recent polls show the Trump's chances of winning the November election are declining.Charles Rex Arbogast/AP
Meanwhile, Trump's margin is also narrowing in North Carolina, where he had a three-point lead over Biden in June. According to Redfield & Wilton Strategies' poll, his lead was slashed to only two points, with 44 percent of those polled saying they would vote for Trump, compared to Biden's 42 percent.
The FiveThirtyEight tracker is similarly close, with Trump at 48 percent and Biden at 46 percent.
In a post on their website, FiveThirtyEight said their latest predictions can be explained by the flurry of swing-state polls that show Biden is encroaching upon Trump's lead.
"The average swing-state poll published since July 6 has Trump leading Biden by 1 point, compared to his 2.2-point lead in national polls today," the post added.
The latest poll represents the worst result for Trump since May 20, according to FiveThirtyEight's prediction model.
All the above polls were conducted or started before the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday.
However, polls published after the assassination attempt have suggested his support base is not getting any larger.
A poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point with 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
The findings also reveal that Trump's lead has narrowed slightly since the firm's previous survey, conducted between July 12 and 14, which put Trump two percentage points ahead with 44 percent to Biden's 42 percent.
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- Democrats best chance of beating Donald Trump in 2 key states: Poll
In the week before the shooting, national polls had Trump as the favorite to win the White House, leading narrowly in the six key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released Thursday found Biden and Trump are tied among registered voters.
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Exactly, some mistakenly think that GDP is linked to productivity, capital and labor, but we know Biden did that. No wonder he is all worn out.
The rest of this thread was removed for no value and taunting. Knock it off!
speaking of declining, did anyone else get a look at some of the 50's relics within the maga convention crowd of delegates? yikes.
most of them looked like they needed a 7 hour nap after a 10am lunch just to stay awake long enough for the whole boring monotonous trump speech...
They may be a little older but by your standards they are doing better than Biden with a 10am nap. Shows they have been up for several hours whereas Biden doesn’t even start his day until 10
What we did notice is there were no blu hair leftists freaks in the crowd. That means it was a sane crowd.
Wait until the loons in the left show up to the DNC. That should be one hell of a circus freak show.
The usual 90 minute demented rant . . . the audience was like Jim Jones The People's Temple in Guyana and you know how that worked out.
a string of firecrackers set off in the cheap seats 5 minutes into the trump snooze-fest would've been exciting...
Anyone remember what the 2020 polls looked like just before the election?
Great, stick with Joe
We don’t have to remember, it’s easy to look them up.
Joe Biden led by about 8 points.
We remember what the polls indicated in 2016....that HRC was a shoo-in to win.
No but I do remember 538 predicting a Hillary win....
Wow, I ask a very simple questions, get 4 replies but none of them are willing to provide me with the answer. Are you so used to dodging and deflecting that you cannot answer a simple question?
I am curious what the polls showed, but am unable to look them up currently.
Did you miss 1.3.2 ? Even attached a chart showing it.....................
pardon me
wtf?
Wow, you must have missed 1.3.2
Did you miss me saying that I couldn't access looking up the info for myself at the time? Did you think putting up a link would magically give me access?
I am back to being fully on the internet now and would like to thank all who chose to reply to my request without having the courtesy to actually answer my question. I'm guessing that you've gotten so used to evading and deflecting any questions that a simple answer is now beyond you.
Once again, I answered your question.
And since Putin hated Hillary so much, he sent his whole propaganda machine against her. That machine consisted of mainly American republicans.
I will stick with liberals. Far right wing fascists piss me off.
By all means go for it.
Therein lies your problem.
Nobody cares
So you are part of the 13 percent of liberals that think Joe should stay in.
Must be lonely
Comey sure helped..,
You have a good memory!
At the time I had been following that election closely, so I still remember it well. Up until almost Election Day, there was no doubt that Hillary would win.
Then when Comey pulled that stupid stunt, it became pretty obvious she would lose.
At the time I had been following that election closely, so I still remember it well. Up until almost Election Day, there was no doubt that Hillary would win.
Then when Comey pulled that stupid stunt, it became pretty obvious she would lose.
One of things that I also thought strange was not only that he did it-- but that it was so "last minute". (I don't remember the # of days, but wasn't it only a few days before Election Day?)
For some time Hillary was ahead in the polls-- than suddenly everything changed (and of course she lost).
Giving Joe credit for that is quite the stretch, even for a Bidenista.
Oh look, Vlad is enjoying a New York Riesling straight from Martha's Vineyard.
That is a ridiculous response
Anybody who does research into Vlad the Impaler knows he is the worlds premier assassin. That's why he is Trump's best buddy. Putin owns Trump.
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Do you have a bill of sale or receipt of some sort you can share?
Do you know who he was?
Vlad the Impaler was a 15th century ruler of Walachia which is now part of Romania. Vlad the Impaler was more Ukrainian than Russian.
Tell us again which countries Russia invaded (or attacked) during Trump's administration. Google isn't very helpful so we must rely upon your vast knowledge on the subjects assassins, vampire lore, and Russia. Sounds like you know more about Trump than he does about himself.
Ridiculous responses are a blatant violation of the CoC-- that's why they are so rare on NT!
Isn't that where they send illegal immigrants?
Why is Putin celebrating? Russia did not even make the list of Top 10 Economies!
So, why does NATO need to spend boatloads more money on defense since Biden destroyed the evil empire?
Where's our peace dividend? Where's our victory parade? What do the taxpayers get out of this deal?
I thought it was originally scheduled to be this weekend...
Where is Putin’s Ukraine Victory Parade?
You make my points better than I could...
Trump is Putin’s candidate for President!
Voting for MAGA is surrender to Russia.
The most recent polls show that Biden is behind in EVERY swing state. The Republicans need only to win one of them, the most likely being Pennsylvania.
Nope that is not how it is working.
What does that mean, what numbers are you seeing?
Trump is clearly , obviously, completely unfit for office. He is as deranged as Biden is old. And he's also old.
What is all this Hannibal Lector bullshit about? No one knows. It makes no sense and is irrelevant to every aspect of this presidential campaign. You could say he does it just to fuck with people who dont like him, but is that the role of a president?
Trump is mentally ill. Has he "blown up" America with his unhinged thought processes and personality? No. But are we supposed to wait until he does ?
Surprise, surprise, surprise!
How strange that you think that a problem has to be new to be addressed. Under that logic a hole in a dam that gets progressively bigger should not be addressed because the inception of it is not "new".
Lord help us.
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Weird visions...????
Sometimes it seems like some folks hare are microdosing hallucinogens.("psychedelics").
Which, of course, is very trendy now-a-days-- and many people are saying that sort of thing really livens up an otherwise boring discussion.
But I dunno-- there are both pros and cons to being stoned when participating on "discussions" on social media.
You'd better hustle this news down to Rehoboth before Joe jumps.
President Biden appreciates you concern /s!
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Biden has been better for the economy than Trump-=- and that graphic proves it! Under Biden, the USA economy is now #1 in the entire world!
And contrast that with Trump who really screwed up the economy. I don't remember the exact rating, but at the end of Trump's term as president, the U.S. economy cratered--- the USA position had slipped to either 4th or 5th in the world!!!
Yes because COVID had absolutely nothing tondo with it, and all the blue states shutting down their economies causing massive layoffs was all just a coincidence…s/
BTW, COVID was actually prevalent in other countries (On that list) as well at the time...
GIYF !!!
Hmmm....
The United States has been the world's largest national economy in terms of GDP since around 1890. [101]
Show me which countries where their economies did not struggle like the US did.
GIYF.
I wouldn't start cheering yet. These are simulations. On the same site Biden is 2.2 points behind in poll aggregates. This is not good news for either Democrats nor Republicans. In other news there were several news articles in my news feed this morning talking about Biden accepting he must step down. If true this is all moot.
If Trump/Putin wins democracy dies.
Putin is his running mate?
Putin controls trump, this isn't new news.
Even in a less complex election there's a cliche we keep hearing on the news:
It's to early to tell-- its a long way between now and Election Day.
or
A lot could happen between now and Election Day.
Cliches? Perhaps. But there a lot of truth there...
One key problem for Biden is that he is evaluated as a normal politician. His mistakes are recognized and criticized.
Trump, however, is evaluated as a cult leader. It does not matter what he says or does, his cultish followers will ignore all negatives and vote for the fictional hero of their imaginations.
They are much more than simple mistakes. Reality seems to elude those that promote that.
I am not sure what kind of medical doctor would evaluate someone as being a cult leader. Is that some sort of new medical science?
Never heard of Jim Jones?
Jim Jones, wasn’t he the darling minister befriended by CA Dems and had lunch with Roselyn Carter when her husband was running?
Yeah, he was a Democrat right?..
Was he diagnosed by a doctor?
The unreal freak show of ass kissing of that freak show and that audience of freak shows and 'delegates' - the audience reminded me of Jim Jones and The Peoples Temple - Guyana - and we all know how that turned out. I just watched the Hulu documentary on this and one on the women - his wife and mistresses.
A cult. Absolutely.
Also, in that documentary, his son Stephen, told of how when The People's Temple started by Jones - he would have Democrats like Harvey Milk and also Angela Davis - and others speak - and then Jones would twist their messages and turn them around, like a cult leader would. When concerned families started questioning what was going on behind the scenes is when he fled to Guyana and started his cult.
If you haven't seen the documentaries, you should check them out.
No fucking way.
He was a cult leader, not shockingly, you completely missed the fuckin' point, again.
What do Kamala Harris and Jim Jones have in common?
By the time he fled to Guyana he was addicted to Phenobarbital and there were all kinds of sex scandals involved as well
Where did TiG mention a medical evaluation producing said results?
Huh?
Yes he was a cult leader loved by Dems in the Bay Area;
Ok, so? No one gives a fuck, he was a cult leader. You make no sense, again.
Trump has a cult and biden doesnt so I guess they have to go back 45 years to find a way to drag Democrats into similar stories as trumps situation
kinda sad
MrFrost brought up Jim Jones.
kinda sad
I provided some facts about that man that you entered into the conversation. Why did you bring Jim Jones up?
I disagree. Those that would support someone so obviously incapable would be a cult imo.
Nothing. What a foolish question.
Ahhhh,but they did, Willie Brown really, really liked both of them. If you know what I mean?....
The church started out with a great message, inclusion, and did great works for the community. That turned/changed with the adoration/adulation of his audience as the temple grew. His son said something very interesting about that - how he grew addicted to the adulation and what a powerful drug that was and also at one point when his mother said they had to talk to his father about getting him off drugs - he said something to the effect of - you don't tell a god that he's a drug addict.
Of course some twist and pervert how this cult leader into something that Democrats somehow approved of..
The cult leader twisted and perverted the messages from these decent people and made them appear to be the bad guys.
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They certainly heaped adulation on him....
No, I don't know what the fuck you mean. Why don't you spell it out for me and watch the documentaries before you speak of something you have no clue of what you are talking about.
Quite different. No comparison.
Learn something about it before you go talking bullshit.
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Projection, as usual.
No, that would be my actual opinion.
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Yes.
And I could be wrong, but IIRC the Doctor diagnosed him as being a Democrat!
Of course there's a lot of false information, hoaxes and trickery, in the mainstream media.
I won't believe any diagnosis by anyone-- until I see the actual medical records!
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Held to absolutely no standard whatsoever. Mind boggling
Well, you know the olde sayin:
A fool and his mind are easily parted!
Yep, there go Trump's chances for a comeback!
So you thought that he would beat Biden after all. You previous comments were as transparent as Joe’s health assessments.
I don't see where JBB said that at all.
Then you haven’t been reading JBB for months.
Well, years actually, but who's counting. I am just not seeing the words you said he said. I mean... It's basic English.
One of multiple examples:
I am confident President Biden will whoop Trump, again!
It's weird right, that's not what he said in #4.
Lack of consistency in favor of situational talking points.
Trump is much too old to be running for president.