Kathy Hochul's chances of beating Elise Stefanik for New York governor
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Governor Kathy Hochul may face a tougher path to re-election in 2026 than many expected, polling suggest.
A new poll shows Hochul locked in a tight race with either Republican Representatives Elise Stefanik or Mike Lawler.
Why It Matters
New York has long favored Democratic candidates in statewide contests, yet recent polls suggest Republicans could be more competitive in 2026 than in past cycles. The close numbers between Hochul and her Republican rivals demonstrate growing voter discontent and could signal a rare opportunity for a Republican to capture the governor's mansion.
With New York's large electoral footprint and political influence, the outcome may have ripple effects for both state and national politics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
What To Know
Governor Kathy Hochul may still hold an edge over Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in a potential 2026 matchup, but new polling paints a picture of a vulnerable incumbent facing growing dissatisfaction—and potentially a stronger GOP challenger in Representative Mike Lawler.
A new Harper Polling survey conducted May 7–9 among 600 likely voters, shared with the New York Post , found Hochul leading Stefanik by a wide margin on the initial ballot, 50.1 percent to 38.8 percent. That lead shrinks to just over three points, 46 percent to 42.6 percent, after voters were presented with information about each candidate's record.
By contrast, Hochul's lead over Lawler was significantly narrower: 48 percent to 41 percent initially, and just 44 percent to 43.4 percent when candidate records are considered—a virtual toss-up within the poll's ±4 percent margin of error.
Regionally, Lawler appears to outperform Stefanik in key battlegrounds. On Long Island, Lawler holds a 20-point lead over Hochul (55 percent to 35 percent), while Stefanik leads the governor 51 percent to 36 percent. In the Hudson Valley, Hochul leads Stefanik by 13 points, but only edges out Lawler by 5 points, a sign of his potential strength in the lower Hudson, where he currently represents New York's 17th congressional district (including Rockland County) in Congress . Both Republicans are neck-and-neck with Hochul in upstate areas including Stefanik's home turf of the Albany and North Country region, where each holds a narrow 1-point lead over the incumbent.
In New York City, Hochul maintains a commanding advantage in the poll, leading Stefanik by 41 points and Lawler by 35.
Despite these regional variances, the poll highlights deep dissatisfaction with the governor. Only 38 percent of voters polled approved of Hochul's job performance, while 59 percent disapprove. Just 29 percent of respondents said she deserves to be reelected, compared to 66 percent who would prefer someone else.
Stefanik has not yet announced a bid for New York Governor. Still, other polls show that she is locked in a tight race with Hochul.
Another poll, conducted by right-leaning firm co/efficient between May 1–2 among 1,163 likely voters, found Hochul in a statistical dead heat with Stefanik, leading 43 percent to 42 percent, with 15 percent undecided. That poll showed Hochul with even worse approval numbers: only 30 percent of voters approved of her job performance, and just 23 percent said she deserves reelection, while 63 percent said it's time for someone new.
In a hypothetical GOP primary tested by co/efficient, Stefanik was the clear favorite with 56 percent support, compared to just 9 percent for Lawler and 8 percent for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
Still, Stefanik's overall popularity remains a potential liability. A Siena College poll conducted May 12–15 found Stefanik with just 25 percent favorability statewide, and only 45 percent of Republicans viewing her favorably.
That same poll showed just 36 percent of voters saying they'd reelect Hochul, while 55 percent preferred a different candidate. Even among Democrats , support for Hochul was lukewarm: 51 percent said they would reelect her, while 38 percent wanted someone else.
What People Are Saying
Denny Salas, former Washington, D.C., consultant, told Newsweek previously: "Anything can happen in politics, and a Republican like Elise Stefanik could have an opportunity to win in New York. I never buy the inevitability arguments when it pertains to party identification enrollments in a particular state like ours. To win, Stefanik will need to secure 35 to 40 percent of NYC, dominate Long Island, penetrate Westchester, and dominate the rest of New York in the rural areas to defeat Hochul."
Alex deGrasse, Stefanik senior campaign adviser, told The New York Post : "Elise is the strongest candidate—and frankly the only candidate—who can build upon the 2022 success of pro-Trump candidate Lee Zeldin and finally end the tyranny of Kathy Hochul."
What Happens Next
The gubernatorial primary and general election campaigns will intensify as candidates formalize their bids.
The New York gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with future polling and campaign activity likely to clarify the competitive landscape.
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Stefanik most likely decided to take on Hochul because Hochul deliberately slow walked the election to replace her in congress after Trump named her as UN ambassador. Because the House Republican majority was so small Stefanik was asked to come back and finish her term.
Thus, Stefanik may be delivering karma for the radical Hochul and at the same time restoring a bit of sanity to a state gone mad.
Stefanik is an election denier who isnt fit to be in charge of the Sanitation Dept.
Let's see: Al Gore was an election denier, Hillary Clinton was an election denier, Stacey Abrams was an election denier and most recently Kamala Harris questioned not getting any votes in a NY county.
You never said a thing about any of the above. Thus, I don't think you get to point fingers.
Vic, you aren't supposed to point out their hypocrisy.
I know, sometimes I can't resist.
It needs called out. I don't care if it makes them cry.
Andy always said: Our youngins need to be taught to be civilized!
Do snowballs in Hell (Stefanik) have chances?
Let me think about your analogy: Stefanik being the snowballs and New York being Hell.
Probably not. If there is one thing many NY city folks have proven is they don't vote with their own best interests at heart.