Democratic Upset in Deep Red Texas District Rattles Republicans
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
In an upset that rattled Republicans in Texas and beyond, a Democrat decisively won a state legislative special election on Saturday in a district around Fort Worth that President Trump carried by more than 17 percentage points just over a year ago.
The Democrat, Taylor Rehmet, a local union leader and first-time candidate, defeated the Republican, Leigh Wambsganss, by double digits — 57 to 43 — in the historically conservative district.
The contest to fill a State Senate seat had been closely followed by national leaders from both parties as a barometer of potential Republican struggles in this year’s midterm elections.
It attracted outsized attention after Mr. Rehmet, 33, performed far better than expected in the first round of voting in November and ended up in the runoff. Since then, he received a surge of support from Democratic groups, including the Democratic National Committee.
Ms. Wambsganss, a first-time political candidate and a longtime conservative activist, had helped propel a social conservative takeover of several school boards in and around the district in 2022. But last year, more moderate candidates ousted many social conservatives from the boards, suggesting an emerging backlash.
Democrats quickly seized on Mr. Rehmet’s victory as a sign of their growing strength even in deeply red areas of the country.
“In a Trump +17 district, Republicans had to go all out and still lost this race,” Ken Martin, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement. “Tonight’s results prove that no Republican seat is safe.”
Some Republicans also saw it as a warning about the future.
“November was always going to be a real battle but tonight should hopefully remind us all that we will be fighting against a force that believes they have to win,” Luke Macias, a conservative activist and Texas political consultant, said in a social media post .
Mr. Rehmet, a machinist at a Lockheed Martin fighter jet plant in Fort Worth, said in an interview with The New York Times during the campaign that he did not like party labels and believed that voters were “really tired of the partisanship.” He made his support for public education, including vocational programs, central to his campaign.
“This win goes to everyday working people,” Mr. Rehmet told supporters on Saturday night . “We will see you out there.”
But he will only be in office through the end of the year, serving out the remainder of the term after State Senator Kelly Hancock stepped down to become the acting state comptroller. Both Mr. Rehmet and Ms. Wambsganss are registered to run in the 2026 election, setting up a rematch for November.
The result in the Fort Worth suburbs overshadowed a congressional race in Houston on Saturday that has frustrated Democrats for months because of Republican efforts to keep the seat — in Texas’s solidly Democratic 18th Congressional district — vacant for as long as possible.
Christian Menefee, 37, an outspoken former Harris County attorney, won the special congressional election runoff over a former Houston City Council member, Amanda Edwards, 44, in a showdown between rising young Black Democrats in the district.
The seat has historically been held by prominent Black legislators, including Barbara Jordan and Sheila Jackson Lee. It has been vacant since March, when Representative Sylvester Turner died in office weeks after being sworn in.
Rather than quickly call a special election in the deep blue district around downtown Houston, Governor Abbott, a Republican, set the election for November, leaving the seat empty and helping Republicans in U.S. Congress pad their slim majority. The first round of voting attracted more than a dozen candidates, with Mr. Menefee and Ms. Edwards ending up in the runoff.
“When I go into Congress I’m going to fight each and every day to impeach Kristi Noem, to tear ICE up from the roots and to fix this country’s broken immigration system,” Mr. Menefee said in a victory speech on Saturday night , referring to the secretary of homeland security.
But even before he can be sworn into Congress, he will have to begin running for re-election in the Democratic primary on March 3. Early voting in that race starts in just over two weeks.
The primary race will not only feature a rematch against Ms. Edwards, but also a formidable challenge from Representative Al Green, a veteran Houston incumbent. Mr. Green was drawn out his district by Republicans during the state’s mid-decade congressional redistricting last year.
Mr. Green’s current district, the 9th Congressional, was moved to the east, to an area that includes a strong majority of Republican voters — one of five districts held by Democrats that Republican state legislators redrew at the behest of President Trump in the hopes of flipping them to Republican control.
The lines of the 18th were redrawn to stretch further to the city’s south — including areas that Mr. Green now represents — and to capture a large number of Democratic voters. The winner of the Democratic primary is likely to go on to win a general election in the redrawn 18th.
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Even the Sixth Sense is in revolt.
the republicans will win the seat in no November when people actually show up to vote and no one will ever think about some this insignificant state legislature seat again,…
Who are these Republicans of which you speak? A penthouse billionaire from New York la la land has captured what used to be the Republican Party. Trump has always had money so he never needed to be an American. Trump has always expected to get what he wants from America.
Trump is an entitled elite among the elites. Trump has made Big Government even bigger to give him what he wants. Trump has deepened the Deep State to cover his ass. How the hell is Trump a Republican? Why is the party of Trump still the Republican Party?
It doesn't matter. This happens every frickin cycle. The out of power party does better because their voters are so so mad about something and they turn out is higher percentages and the effect is magnified now that Democrats have become the party of big money and elite whites, the voters who turn out the most in special elections.
Remember how democrats were all aflutter because some abortion rights advocate won a special election in Alabama in 2024 and that meant Democrats were going to win big in November and make states like Alabama competitive.......
Translation:
Except this was an election for the Texas Senate; not Congress. The result doesn't tell us much about Democrats chances nationally since this was a local election. But when a safe Republican seat in the state legislature switches, it does say something about the weakness of the Republican Party.
Maybe. Maybe not.
This was a run off election, because nobody got 50% of the vote during the main election back in November.
But Rhemet beat this lady by 14,000 votes back in November, even with Republicans carrying the day in the other races.
She also had a Republican challenger who got almost 20,000 votes.
So this may just be about her personally. She may just not be a particularly inspiring candidate.
Yes, the local politics overrode national politics. (That's one of the notable aspects of the election.)
I haven't followed the race very closely but I thought Leigh Wambsganss had embraced Trump's national politics which is why she made it to the runoff. She did get Trump's endorsement. The race appeared to be a moderate Democrat running against a radical Trump Republican (when viewed from a far distance).
The results are suggestive that local politics may play a larger role in down ballot races during the midterms, too. (And maybe not, time will tell.) And the results suggest that moderates may be more competitive during he midterms. The results does raise some doubts about the influence of Trump's coattails for down ballot races during the midterms.
When asked, Trump claimed to know nothing about this loss in a district he had taken by 17 points. Typical Trump, I didn't even know them, answer.
It is obvious nationwide, Trump is an anchor. Latino's who fell for his BS are awakening. Republicans, as they should be, will be washed away in the 2026 Bluewave unless Trump finds a way to finally 'RIG' the elections that he claims have been rigged against him even with him winning 2 out of 3 elections. Republicans deserve to lose for allowing this POS to run wild over US All !
Moderate candidates tend to do very well in suburban areas in Texas, especially if those suburbs are highly affluent, like Southlake. We're talking about people who've done very well, understand how life works, and don't want some knucklehead changing the rules on a whim and screwing everything up.
I think that's the wise stance. We're long way from November in political time.
To be fair, it's a really minor election. It's a single seat in the Texas Senate, which is still overwhelmingly Republican.
Also, as much as Trump may have won that district by 17pts back in November, Wambsganss lost it by almost that much back then. So as much as Democrats want to call this some sort of massive new development, it just isn't.
Imagine if this had happened the other way, where a district in Northern California voted for Biden +20pts but also voted for a Republican state rep by +15 pts. Then a couple months later, the runoff confirmed the Republican victory. It would be nothing new at all. It's not like that's going to move state politics in CA, and it's not like that candidate hadn't already pretty decisively defeated their opponent.
Same thing here. It's just not significant, other than demonstrating how Texas is actually purple and how Texans still think for themselves.
From my own personal experiences in dealing with Trump supporters, i'm seeing a lot of regret, surprisingly, even here in Ohio.
So many who were duped by the current POS potUS are realizing, THIS, is NOT WHAT WE VOTED FOR !
Yep, I know what is said about predictions, irregardless, I see a Blue Tidal Wave starting to swell, and I certainly hope it washes away this POS and his Republican ok'd hell
I sort of divide these folks along a continuum. I think the true Trump supporters are getting exactly what they voted for. The true believers of that movement have a deep anger that drives a bit of a "fuck the rest of you" mentality, not at all unlike what we see from the far left.
I think there is a non-devoted group who voted for Trump simply because the Democrats didn't offer a better alternative and they were completely fed up with some of the hyper left foolishness that Biden and Harris allowed.
I agree many of those are like "Wait...what?? WTF?? Greenland??? Surprise tariffs?? Oh hell no."
They just wanted somebody to enforce some laws, cut out the stupid shit like drag shows for little kids and boys in the girl's locker room. They're all shaking their heads asking each other why we can't just have somebody normal.
You may be right, I just think there will be a lot that happens between now and then. I wouldn't be disappointed necessarily.
Most true party believers on both sides get really upset when I say this, but the best situation for America historically has been gridlock. The fact is that most of what our government does isn't actually helpful, and when the two tribes stop each other from "helping", we tend to thrive as a nation.
It's also a historical trend that the first two years of a presidency tend to be unhealthy and extreme. That was true for Biden, Obama, Clinton, and Reagan.
Three of those turned out to be good presidents once they got reigned in.
I get it, we need checks and balances, even on parties, but what the GOP has enabled inn Trump is just unacceptable, and the party will need to reevaluate what it has allowed in order to move forward as a party, as our nation will no longer exist as we know it without serious reform, imho.
Indeed. Over the past few decades and the foreseeable future ... indeed!
It's interesting. When we look at the midterm reversals on Clinton in 1994 and Obama in 2010, I think we had similar situations where the voters stepped in and said "WTF are you doing.. .this is not at all what we voted for".
Those men were definitely more dignified and behaved more presidentially on a personal level, so I think the objections were less about them personally than they way they are about Trump. But Trump has always made everything about him, going back to the 1970s.
You talk about reevaluating, and I think you're right. That's exactly what happened in '94 and '10, so you would expect that to happen again if there is a very large midterm reversal this year. It's Trump, so he'll pretend it's not happening and that the reversal was all about everybody else being defective in some way, but they'll rethink what they're doing.
I'm not as concerned about our nation no longer existing. We've survived much worse than this, we've actually survived worse presidents than this, and we've made it out just fine. Don't get me wrong, I'll be very happy to see Trump ride off into the sunset, but as Kipling said, triumph and disaster are both imposters. It's not the end of the world.
Well, not yet, just give Trump a little more time...
Trump is an unhinged mental midget miscreant with a mind not much based in reality as of late, so it is possible, that Trump could mean the end of the world. I'm not inclined to believe it will get that far, but might I suggest you check our Doomsday Clock, cause it is the closest it has ever been, I think.
There is not another individual in the world with more capability of doing just that, inflicting "the end of the world." due to his position as potUS who has remained unchecked by the GOP and an un Supreme Court with an apparent agenda.
Comparing Obama and Clinton with what Trump has, and continues to attempt to do, is FCKN RIDICULOUS !
Invading countries, invading allies, invading US !!!
No, no way in HELL even close, imho.
I hope you won't be offended if I really, really, really hope you're wrong on this.
I'm not comparing actions, I was comparing situations. A big midterm reversal is not unheard of.
Both Clinton an Obama bombed and sent US troops into other countries. That's not a criticism, BTW. Sometimes it needs to happen.
Which ally has Trump invaded? Did he actually invade one or has he just run his mouth off (again)?
Don't let the fact that he's an asshole make him larger than he really is.
Being a publicly displayed asshole is damage in itself. Even without action, the reputational harm undermines trust, weakens our standing, and produces tangible consequences in how others deal with us.
Trump is an infection. The body will almost certainly survive, but the longer it festers, the more damage.
Yeah, but it's not like he's invaded Denmark.
I think there is a healthy difference of opinion on how much that's actually happening, and I think there is a pretty wide spectrum related to how much average Americans care about that. I think the stereotypical Trump supporter doesn't care enough and I think the stereotypical Trump hater cares entirely too much. The ideal is a healthy balance.
There is also the issue that some of these countries with whom we're supposedly losing standing are mismanaging themselves into the ground faster than the media outlets can report it. The UK arrests over 1000 people/month for social media posts that "might be considered offensive", so I'm not sure how much high ground they actually have.
I also think there is a valid point to be made that we've been too generous with many of our allies and most certainly our trading partners over the last many decades. If something collapses immediately as soon as we leave, were those people really partners or are they just our guests? That said, I don't think we've done a very good job handling that situation, and I hold almost no optimism that it's going to improve significantly.
He's a NY real estate developer. He acts like a NY real estate developer. I'm not sure what people are expecting.
I get your point. But when you're the richest, most powerful country in the world by a long margin, "damage" heals pretty quickly.
That would become the worst act of his presidency so far.
There is always a difference of opinion. And for the point I made (the problem I raised) it does not really matter what the average American thinks. What matters is what the international community thinks and what it does in response.
Human nature suggests that the evidence we see from trading partners such as Canada illustrates a newfound lack of trust in the USA. Not only is it a lack of trust in Trump, but since the USA has demonstrated that we could actually elect such a scoundrel to the presidency, the world now knows that we are capable of doing it again.
For example (ChatGPT):
While this does not mean the end of our nation (just to preempt that response) it does illustrate my point. And none of this was necessary. Almost certainly none of this would have happened if we had a (historically) normal, rational PotUS.
I've got some serious doubts ...
Well yeah. Clearly.
I like the way you separate the two, because there is a real difference. Does it matter what the international community does in response, yes. What it thinks..... meh.... not as much.
I would be nice if they had a great love for the US, but many of them haven't for decades. It's not something we can actually control.
Yeah, I'm going to agree on that. The most disappointing thing as far as I'm concerned is that we could have achieved most of the goals without irrationally antagonizing everybody.
Trump is just obnoxious for no reason. But he's a NY real estate developer, and it's not realistic to expect a fish not to swim or a pig not to wallow.
It is something we can influence. I would prefer to influence it in a positive, rather than negative manner. I would prefer to negotiate from a position of historical trust / reliability (to the degree it is true) rather than having violated said trust / reliability ... unnecessarily.
I fully agree.
Indeed. Except I would characterize him as a lifelong con-man who worked his con in the real estate market. We should expect more of what we have seen. We should expect him to operate as he has always operated. However, now he has enormous power and far fewer restrictions. Not a good situation for anyone (except him).
Meh. I agree we can avoid actively destroying their perception, sure, but I'm not sure we have as much influence as most of us like to think.
But I also think we don't understand how much many of these countries dislike each other, especially in Europe. If they have consistent disdain for the people with whom they share a currency, they're definitely going to have it for us.
I also think we'll start to see some shifts in Europe as voters finally get fed up with some of the suicidal empathy policies on mass migration, energy, and taxation.
Yeah. Agree.
I would settle for predictability. People can at least work with that. I do think that many, many of our international arrangements are cold war holdovers where we were willing to lose or spend money to interfere with the spread of communism. I think we live in a very different environment now, and I can understand how people question why we're still thinking like it's 1985.
That said, there is a great lesson to be learned in "it's not so much what you say as the way you say it", and we could certainly be more tactful and easier to work with. But if we're counting on a NY real estate developer to take that on board, we may as well be talking about our vegan cats.
The USA has been disliked and resented in spite of our good intentions. That is to be expected. It is an odd part of human psychology to find fault with benefactors (and helpers); likely to not 'feel' beholding. This is often called 'Beneficiary Resentment'. But in the big picture, I am saying that we have developed a certain level of good international capital over the decades (albeit imperfect) and that this is desirable. Trump has squandered much of this and it is not clear how long it will take to recover.
And he squandered it for nothing.
It is much worse than just a NY real estate developer; that, in itself, is not that significant to me. Too many have counted on a lifetime grifter to take that on board.
It seems like that would depend on who follows him.
I would say that if we view whatever we call this (international reputation, political capital, etc) as a currency, then I think he's wasted some and spent some. I think he's achieved some things that are positive for America, but his bluster, arrogance and general yankee rudeness have made him spend more than he needed to.
I think he could have constructed and driven home a message about America becoming fiscally responsible. That would have played well politically with the majority of Americans who have to be financially responsible themselves, and it could have provided a stable platform from which to improve trade deals using tariffs as a threat.... which is sort of what he's been doing with them all along.
Fiscal responsibility provides a different backdrop for something like DOGE, which is the biggest lost opportunity of his presidency, IMO. If there was a way to fuck that up any worse, I'm not sure what it could have been.
Fiscal responsibility could have provided a very different backdrop to Ukraine, NATO, and the imbalance of that relationship that benefits Europeans from the pockets of Americans.
Immigration can become a fiscal responsibility issue. Healthcare subsidies are inherently a fiscal responsibility issue. The list goes on and on.
That sort of messaging also produces the stark contrast with Biden and the far left that he likes to maintain, but in a way that would improve the prospects for the rest of his party.
There is a very great deal of overlap between these two groups.
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
Lao Tzu
Yes and anyone making a local election national news because they think this election means anything for the future should probably take heed...
Trump made this national news and his (literally) pearl clutching, blonde hair flipping plastic Barbie doll lost to a guy who would really rather be an Independent.
He has literally changed the Texas party balance to 51-50 in the Senate.
Christian Menefee won another special election for the US House of reps changing the current balance to 218-214 as the Dems chip away at Johnson's majority.
Very unusual if not all together as rare as a two headed calf for two Texas special elections to flip red seats to blue in the same election cycle.
Texicans are taking notice and they don't give a flying fuck about outsider's opinions.
I thought all politics are local?
Local elections are just as if not more than important than national
That's literally the entire point of what I wrote. Who gives a flying fuck about some local election in Texas? It's completely meaningless.
So then you agree that those that say Democrats will take the House and Senate meet this criteria?
Because they know there is very little chance democrats will do what they claim they are going to do. Trump is too far popular and Americans approve more than they disapprove of most of what is going on in the country.
And the leftists here can put up as many "polls" they want here. The real poll will be in November. As an example, I remember a democrat poll saying democrats were ahead in Iowa less than a week from the 2024 election, and ended up losing to Trump double digits.
???
There are 31 seats in the Texas State Senate. 18 of those are held by Republicans.
Menefee replaced Sylvester Turner, another Democrat, who died of bone cancer last year.
It was not a flip.
I thought it was odd when I read it, looked for that article and it's been updated.
Either that or I cave in and get the cataract surgery scheduled...
I sit corrected again, thanks. Sitting here watching a great sunset over DFW.
Unless you live in Texas in that district
and as we say here, "Y'all just continue to be all hat, no cattle, bless yer heart".
I don't live in that district, but I live relatively close (by Texas standards).
It's certainly not the earth rumbling type of shock that folks on the left would like to hope it is.
If there is a message from that election, I think it was sent back in November, when they voted for Trump but then voted for the more moderate candidate for State Senate. To me, the message is that they'd prefer a reasonable, moderate, common sense candidate when given that chance.
I do. I think this was just about school funding and teachers pay. Wombsgnass couldn't separate herself from Rhemet; every time she invoked Trump it echoed "ICE"s unpopularity.
Ah. That makes sense.
Now that you mention that, though, it seems like the local "Texas only" political issues we have internally make the extrapolation of state and local results all the more problematic.
If someone doesn't live here, they would have no way of knowing that our school funding system was declared unconstitutional, then re-declared constitutional, but only barely. It's been a complete shitshow since the 1990s, and it's a far more contentious issue for us than Greenland or a new ballroom or whether or not a tariff has caused the French hate us openly instead of behind our backs.
So you might be tempted to think "people are responding to Trump" when really they're just voting about property tax reform or teacher salaries.
If the Republican had won the reactionary propagandists would be calling it a great, historic victory.
Of course they would have because that's what party politics demands. Both sides have done it in the past and I fully expect that both sides will continue to do so going forward. A bigger shame is that the sheep will blindly follow what their party bleats.
The sheep will do that.
But in that district they're not all sheep.
The Republican candidate is an attractive blond, always smiling like she knows something you don't; a "conservative activist" (and here I thought all conservatives hated any activists).
She had the personal backing of the POTUS and the LT Governor, LT Dan. with whom she shared a fear of Sharia Law.
You're only allowed to use it speaking in tongues.
too funny.
This is interesting. I had presumed that Trump had until 2028 to eliminate elections. Now it seems that he has only until 2026.
He'll have to hurry...
Democrat flips reliably red Texas district in victory that stuns Republican party
Taylor Rehmet’s win adds to Democrats’ record of overperforming in special elections so far this cycle
Associated Press via The Guardian
She lost because no one could pronounce her name, lol.
Texas Nice Time: What The Heck Just Happened In That Special Election?
A 32-point swing in a solid red state seat is what!
Marcie Jones
Polls are often inaccurate...and sometimes change frequently. However I occasionally look at them. And I don't spend a lot of time reading political news every day.
That being said, it seems that fairly recently Trump's favourability rating has gone down. Some people who voted for him have been having "buyer's remorse".
IMO, If the current trend continues there's now a possibility that in the midterms Democrats will gain control of one or both houses of Congress.