Why He'll Surrender Soon
By: Robert Reich
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
But he'll call it a great victory
No one knows what Trump is going to do from minute to minute, least of all Trump. But it's looking ever more likely he'll be exiting Iran within days, declaring his "excursion" into it (as he's termed his war) a major victory — and then changing the subject.
On Friday, Trump posted on his social media site that "we are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East."
Today, Monday, in a post written in all caps, Trump said the U.S. and Iran had "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East." He said "they want very much to make a deal. We'd like to make a deal too."
He added that he hopes the Strait of Hormuz would be opened soon. Asked who would control the strait, Trump said, "Maybe me," adding that the new Iranian leader would also play a role in controlling the strait, a vital global shipping lane.
Despite Iran's denial that any such talks are underway, oil prices tumbled and the stock market roared.
He's about to wind down and exit because he doesn't give a damn about anything except maintaining his wealth and power — and the war is now costing him both.
It's hurting his financial backers in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar — whose wealth has been seriously diminished by the war and whose vulnerability has been exposed. Even luxury resorts like Dubai, frequented by some of America's biggest investors from the Middle East, are under fire.
It's pissing off Trump's wealthy political backers at home — who are getting pummeled as the U.S. stock market sinks under the weight of the war.
It's infuriating American voters, as gasoline sells for nearly $4 a gallon — causing Republicans to become ever more anxious about a political backlash in the midterm elections. Most were elected on Trump's coattails in the 2024 election, in which Trump promised to reduce prices and avoid foreign entanglements — rather than do the exact opposite.
So, forget regime change. Forget freedom for Iranians. Forget "obliterating" Iran's nuclear capabilities (which Trump claimed he accomplished last June).
Trump will soon say he vanquished Iran's military and defense capacities, destroyed its economy, and decapitated its leadership.
Job over. Mission accomplished. Iran obliterated (again).
Now, Trump will wait until Friday to give Iran time to open the Strait of Hormuz. Then, what? He'll leave the job to other countries, claiming that the U.S. doesn't need the Strait because we produce enough oil on our own (which is untrue because oil prices depend on the global market, and U.S. refiners depend on foreign grades of crude).
And he'll leave the bombing of Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu, who'd rather continue striking Iran and Hezbollah's strongholds in Lebanon than stand trial in Israel for bribery and corruption. (Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Friday that the military campaign in Iran would "escalate significantly" this week.)
So what will America have gotten out of Trump's "excursion"? Zilch. Actually, less than zilch because in many ways we're worse off than when it started. We've lost blood and fortune.
Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed, and the war has cost the U.S. an estimated $18 billion so far, not counting the costs to American consumers of higher-priced energy and food.
The regime in Iran has changed, but there's been no "regime change." And the change that's occurred has been toward a harder, more nationalist, more belligerent Islamic state.
Iran is still hiding its enriched uranium and is presumably more determined than ever to turn it into nuclear warheads.
Trump and Israel may crow about destroying Iranian launchers and missile stocks, but Iran is firing even more ballistic missiles and drones across the Middle East now than it did a week ago — launching new missile attacks on Israeli cities and damaging key energy installations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
On Friday, Iran launched intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the U.S.-U.K. Diego Garcia military base 2,500 miles away. That's far enough to hit much of Europe.
Iran figures that political and economic pressures are mounting against Trump faster than they are mounting against Iran. While Iran uses cheap drones and missiles to disrupt global supply chains, it's generating huge profits on its sale of oil (mostly to China), reportedly $8.7 billion in additional oil profits since the war began, driven by a $47 per barrel increase in prices compared to pre-war levels.
On Friday, desperately seeking to lower oil prices, the Trump regime lifted sanctions on Iranian oil currently at sea, which will allow Iran to sell about 140 million barrels of oil, worth about $14 billion, including to the United States.
Iran will demand an even higher price to end the war, such as massive reparations from the U.S. and the expulsion of American military from the region.
Iran is also considering making the Strait of Hormuz into a kind of Iranian toll booth subjecting a third of the world's shipborne crude oil to payments.
We have no way of knowing whether America will now be more vulnerable to Iran-sponsored terrorism, but the risk seems greater than before Trump launched his war.
All told, there has been no American victory here, only tragedy — although the sociopath in the Oval Office will surely claim victory and lie through his teeth about what he has accomplished.
Make no mistake: This will be a surrender. As Vermont Republican Senator George Aiken suggested in 1966 when the U.S. found itself mired in another unwinnable war, Trump's only real course of action now is to "declare victory and get out," which I expect him to do momentarily.
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A new "regime" will take power. It will be the same old same old but Trump will frame it as his choice.
Trump will say anything , anything, to make himself look like the winner. Iran will keep their ability to enrich uranium, and they will keep repressing their people.
Trump will betray the Iranian everyday citizen just like he has betrayed his own citizens in the US.
On to the next destructive farce.
He betrayed the Iranian people by telling them he would help them, so they protested in January hoping for his help to change the regime, and he didn't back them up and they ended up with thousands killed and arrested. Now they cannot be blamed for not trusting him to come to help them change the regime, so there will be no regime change. He just plain fucked them, like he is fucking the American people. The Iranians should have known, so should those who voted for him.
The costs of the war with Iran, so far, are actually estimated to be closer to $28.5 billion. That does not include $13 billion non-combat related damage to the USS Gerald R. Ford caused by the laundry room fire. That cost does not include the non-combat loss of KC-135 tankers and the cost of the F-15s lost to friendly-fire.
The requested $200 billion supplemental includes the cost of non-combat losses and repairs to facilities in the Arab states in addition to replacement of spent munitions. Trump has spent an exorbitant amount of taxpayer money and is now hoping to return to the status quo the US had before attacking Iran.
Is this supposed to be Trump's idea of winning?
looks like winning to him
it is, because the media has stopped talking about him molesting underage girls, the sole reason he attacked iran ...
Robert Reich must have noticed that Trump is talking to somebody in Iran. We don't know who it may be. It is certainly not the hard liners.
The bad news for Reich and all those wishing for Trump to fail or get stuck in a long war is that even if Trump pulled out right now he would be leaving Iran completely degraded and at the mercy of the neighbors it once threatened and a people it once murdered. It would take Iran many decades to rebuild what it has lost and that is provided that Israel and Europe let's it happen again.
From where I'm sitting things are looking pretty good.
Not based on anything Reich wrote.
Trump isn't talking to anyone in Iran. And remember, tomorrow is TACO Tuesday.
No matter what is actually taking place.
Ah yes, one of our most tyrannical Presidents. Right next to FDR and Andrew Jackson. Suspended habeas corpus, arrested critics without trial, shut down opposition newspapers, signed the first US conscription law etc, etc. Good ol’ Abe …..
The US and Israel attack Iran
Leftists…..this is an illegal war and Trump needs to stop.
Three days into the war and the nuke capabilities that were left after June are decimated.
Leftists….Trump is losing yaaayyy.
Two weeks into the war the vast majority of Iran’s offensive and defensive weapons have been obliterated.
Leftists …..Trump is still losing….louder yaaaayyy.
Almost three weeks and Trump announces talks with some of the regime to stop the war.
Leftists….Trump is surrendering. He is TACO….roaring cheers.
Reactionaries.... We LOVE Trump to death... even if he destroys us.
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Thanks for providing the usual reactionary propaganda. It's always good for a laugh.
is any of that true (what you responded to)
If it isn't, can you debunk it? s/
"Once we have a war there is only one thing to do. It must be won. For defeat brings worse things than any that can ever happen in war."
One thing many leftists DO NOT want is for us to win this war. Many of them are rooting for Iran
Iran couldn’t wish for a better propaganda department. It’s like the Iraqi Minister of information spawned into progressive shit posters.
Copperhead propaganda during the civil war was more rational.
The New York Times even had to admit the truth:
New York Times columnist tells liberal readers Trump's war with Iran is 'going better than you think'
Problem is ……. Derangement…..
Your interpretations of inflammatory, taunting, trolling etc are a partisan joke. But yeah, i know, you do this for free, on your own time, it’s a tough job, blah, blah, blah as you get off on censoring the conversations to your liking.
Very, very weak sauce
At first, when I read your post, I said...WTF...but then I realized what you were responding to.
You are absolutely correct. Feelings override critical thinking for some.
How do they know what I think?
Do you believe liberal rags when they say Trump is losing the war?
If you do, don't you think that is demoralizing to our troops?
What, precisely, is the objective of this war?
How do we measure success?
What is the endgame?
What happens when this war is over?
What will happen to the Iranian people Trump promised to help?
Trump was asked about the Iranian people today. His response: "I've never heard of them."
by the end of the month trump will blaming the iranian people, that weren't already killed earlier by the regime, for their failure to revolt ...
So because Trump is talking to someone in Iran who is not in a position of authority everything will be good? Please. Lol
My vast psychic powers are telling me that in that case you must be owning stocks in oil companies.
Or he’ll keep fighting. Either way you got this right John. Super job!
"Why He'll Surrender Soon"
Why are so many leftists hoping for this?
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(etc.)
: "if past generations could see how well this war has gone compared with the ones they were compelled to fight at a frightening cost, they would marvel at their posterity’s comparative good fortune. They would marvel, too, at our inability to appreciate the advantages we now possess”
Bret Stephen’s in the NYT today
this is so obvious it should barely need saying, but as this site demonstrates the everyday left has completely bought into a hysterical doom loop. They are completely detached from reality. Imagine the reaction to Pearl Harbor or even an actual lost battle. The joy/predictions of imminent , cataclysmic doom might actually kill some of them it would be so overwhelming.