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Trump's Desperate Madman Ploy

  
Via:  John Russell  •  7 months ago  •  27 comments

By:   David Frum (The Atlantic)

Trump's Desperate Madman Ploy
Does Trump seem crazy? Sure. Credible, not so much.

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Does Trump seem crazy? Sure. Credible, not so much.

By David FrumNathan Howard / GettyApril 8, 2026, 4:43 PM ET ShareSave Listen−1.0x+Seek0:004:20

The most important thing to understand about the "madman theory" of foreign policy is that it was designed by losers for losers.

The world first heard of the madman theory from a 1978 memoir by President Richard Nixon's former chief of staff H. R. Haldeman. According to Haldeman, Nixon said: "I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war." Faced with an otherwise hopeless war in Vietnam, Nixon would pretend to be crazy to intimidate the North Vietnamese into allowing him some face-saving escape.

Nobody executes a madman strategy when he feels that he's winning. Strong and successful powers emphasize consistency and predictability. So do powers that hope to be seen as strong and successful. When China's foreign minister speaks to the world, he uses language such as "China will be a reliable force for stability" and China "is providing the greatest certainty in this uncertain world." He understands that true power does not need to boast or yell.

Those who feel their power ebbing, however, may bluster and bellow. Over the seven weeks of his Iran war so far, Donald Trump has discovered that no amount of the force at his disposal will calm world energy markets or boost his sagging poll numbers. He has tried a double strategy of promising imminent breakthroughs in negotiations while posting ever more violent threats on social media to ostensibly accelerate those negotiations. But if this was a madman strategy, it signally failed to gain the advantage that he sought. Everyone could see that Trump wanted a deal more than his Iranian counterparts did. A good rule of thumb is that the side that wants a deal more is the side that is losing.

The madman strategy is for not-crazy leaders caught in adverse predicaments. It's a strategy of deception. The madman strategist pretends to be willing to do things that he's not really willing to do. This approach relies on credibility: Rivals must be able to take the threat of extreme action seriously.

Trump's problems with this strategy are ironic. Foreign leaders are surely willing to believe that Trump is "crazy" in the sense that he is detached from reality. They have seen him miscalculate risk and bungle all kinds of projects, such as his trade wars with China and his attempted coup on January 6, 2021. But they also know that when push really comes to shove, Trump will flinch. TACO has become, like NATO, an acronym so familiar that it no longer needs spelling out.

The Iranians just executed the most dramatic TACO event in history. Trump threatened to annihilate their entire civilization if they didn't agree to his demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran defied the threat—and now Trump has apparently conceded control over the strait and the right to impose tolls on the ships that navigate it. On the point in which Trump tried hardest to terrorize, the Iranians aptly guessed that he was bluffing.

Trump has taught the world that he has every quality of the madman except indifference to pain. He likes his wars unilateral, quick, and cheap. He won't seek consent from Congress; he cannot appeal to public opinion. He just gambles that the war will end before his poll numbers sink too deep. When this latest war of his turned difficult, he panicked. Everyone could see the panic, including the Iranians. His blood-curdling Truth Social posts—shocking as they were—proclaimed desperation, not resolve. That's the Trump version of the madman strategy: yelling at people in the street while begging those same people for a bailout. What's the opposite of the expression crazy like a fox?

About the Author


David FrumFollowDavid Frum is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the host of The David Frum Show podcast.Explore More Topics2026 Iran war, Donald Trump, Iran, January 6 United States Capitol attack, NATO, People's Republic of China, Richard Nixon, Strait of Hormuz, United States Congress, Vietnam


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JohnRussell
Professor Principal
1  seeder  JohnRussell    7 months ago

Trump's Iran Deal Gives Him Nothing He Wanted - The Atlantic

P resident Trump said he went to war  to ensure that Iran never acquired a nuclear bomb. The war ended—for now, at least—with a demonstration that Tehran possesses an arguably more powerful weapon of deterrence against future attacks, one that is cheaper to use, gives Iran enormous sway over the global economy, can bring in revenue, and can’t be negotiated away: the Strait of Hormuz.

More than 12,000 U.S. missiles, bombs, and drones hit Iranian targets over the past five weeks, destroying the country’s navy and much of its military infrastructure. Several of Iran’s leaders and some 1,500 of its citizens were killed, including more than 170 who died in a strike on a girls’ school that was the apparent result of errant targeting. But 12 hours after Trump threatened to destroy Iranian civilization and weeks after demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” the United States agreed to a two-week cease-fire last night while settlement talks play out. Among the president’s initial war goals—preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon; eliminating its ballistic-missile capabilities; laying the ground for a popular overthrow of the regime; and eradicating Iranian proxies in the Persian Gulf—none have been met.

Instead, Iran agreed only to reopen the strait, a global waterway that operated freely before the war began, and on terms that could yield substantial financial rewards for the regime. The U.S. and Israeli military strikes may have damaged Iran’s defenses. (Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth boasted today that Iran had suffered a “devastating military defeat.”) But that, by itself, was not enough to extinguish Iran’s ability to defend itself. Depending on the outcome of the negotiations over the next two weeks, the regime could actually be in a stronger strategic position than it was before the war. Iran may have lost every military battle, but the war appears to have ended on Tehran’s terms. “Controlling the strait is now Iran’s vital strategic asset. It’s more important than their nuclear program,” Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, told me. 
 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
1.1  TᵢG  replied to  JohnRussell @1    7 months ago

Oh but you 'liberals' are again wrong.   Trump got what he wanted.   Iran has unconditionally surrendered, a new different reasonable regime is in power, and it has agreed to be a peaceful nation that will never threaten its neighbors or try to build nuclear weapons.

It is not as though the USA spent blood (lives), treasure, political capital, etc. only to raise the ire (and provide a new layer of reasons to promote the USA as evil) of a multi-headed snake and give it the excuse to control and toll passage through the Strait of Hormuz ... or anything like that.

512

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
1.1.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  TᵢG @1.1    7 months ago

What we appear to be seeing is that Trump doesnt ultimately care about any of the suggested goals of the war.  He cares about how he is perceived. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
1.1.2  TᵢG  replied to  JohnRussell @1.1.1    7 months ago

True.   It is always a show with Trump.   A show for self-aggrandizement.   

It continues to amaze me that anyone falls for this crap.

 
 
 
evilone
Professor Guide
1.1.3  evilone  replied to  JohnRussell @1.1.1    7 months ago
He cares about how he is perceived. 

So ummm... yeah. Who would have seen that coming?

Narcissistic Personality Disorder  (NPD) is  a mental health condition characterized by a long-term pattern of grandiosity, an excessive need for admiration, and a profound lack of empathy for others .

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
Professor Principal
1.1.4  Trout Giggles  replied to  evilone @1.1.3    7 months ago

he has it in spades

 
 
 
Thomas
Professor Guide
1.1.5  Thomas  replied to  JohnRussell @1.1.1    7 months ago

It is evident to me that Trump has no clue about how to negotiate or conduct himself or the nation at war. We are worse off in terms of standing with our colleagues as a nation, we have lost credibility (further) with anyone who does not have their head planted firmly in the MAGA-verse, we now have to deal with a hot adversarial relationship with Iran. Iran has learned that they can indeed control the Strait of Hormuz with very little expense... How can we handle all of this winning?

But according to the faithful we are doing just fine. 

 
 
 
Gsquared
Professor Expert
1.1.6  Gsquared  replied to  Thomas @1.1.5    7 months ago

Faithful worshippers --            

              original

  original

 
 
 
Thomas
Professor Guide
1.1.7  Thomas  replied to  Gsquared @1.1.6    7 months ago

Well, I guess that there is nothing in the constitution saying you cannot rule from the insane asylum. /s

I mean if congress and the cabinet are going to both roll over and play supplicant to the mad king, until we make change, nothing is going to change.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Guide
1.1.8  Krishna  replied to  TᵢG @1.1.2    7 months ago
It continues to amaze me that anyone falls for this crap.

Reminds me of a quote attributed to P.T. Barnum:

There's a sucker born every minute.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Guide
1.1.9  Krishna  replied to  Krishna @1.1.8    7 months ago
Reminds me of a quote attributed to P.T. Barnum: There's a sucker born every minute.

(Although FWIW, powerful as that is, that quote apparently did not originate with him).

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Guide
1.1.10  Krishna  replied to  TᵢG @1.1.2    7 months ago
It continues to amaze me that anyone falls for this crap.

That reminds me of a quote (attributed to Albert Einstein):

 Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not entirely sure about the universe.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
1.1.11  Ozzwald  replied to  Thomas @1.1.7    7 months ago
Well, I guess that there is nothing in the constitution saying you cannot rule from the insane asylum. /s

That's next. 

The American people have already shown that convicted felons, rapists, and pedophiles can rule this country.  And they covered all 3 with 1 candidate.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
2  Nerm_L    7 months ago

Well, at least President Trump got us out of the Ukrainian quagmire.  Hopefully Trump saved enough ammunition to end the civilization in Cuba.  They're kinda in bad shape down there and could use a little help.

I wonder how many weeks it will take Trump to bomb Greenland back to the Ice Age?

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
2.1  Ozzwald  replied to  Nerm_L @2    7 months ago
I wonder how many weeks it will take Trump to bomb Greenland back to the Ice Age?

Depends.  Is Greenland before or after Canada?

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Expert
2.1.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Ozzwald @2.1    7 months ago

Good thing I left.

 
 
 
shona1
Professor Quiet
2.1.2  shona1  replied to  Ozzwald @2.1    7 months ago

Morning..

Or did he mean Iceland and got confused with Greenland again...

Hell he will probably bomb both at least that way he will get one right...

😁

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
2.1.3  devangelical  replied to  shona1 @2.1.2    7 months ago

even trump doesn't know what he means now ...

 
 
 
shona1
Professor Quiet
2.1.4  shona1  replied to  devangelical @2.1.3    7 months ago

Morning Vangy..does anyone?

Was reported here Iran has now mined the Strait..

The news just gets better and better over there..🙄

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Guide
2.2  Krishna  replied to  Nerm_L @2    7 months ago
Hopefully Trump saved enough ammunition to end the civilization in Cuba. 

Trump's wars have significantly depleted U.S. ammunition and other defense reserves-- much of the "smart money" on Wall St. is now purchasing stocks in American defense companies as they anticipate production of these weapons will have to continue for a long time . . .

(Re-stocking necessary reserves of ammunition, defensive rockets, etc. will probably continue for some time),

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3  seeder  JohnRussell    7 months ago

Truth Details | Truth Social

I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon — Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs. They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too! Look at their past, look at their record. They don’t have what it takes, and they never did! They’ve all been thrown off Television, lost their Shows, and aren’t even invited on TV because nobody cares about them, they’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some “free” and cheap publicity. Now they think they get some “clicks” because they have Third Rate Podcasts, but nobody’s talking about them, and their views are the opposite of MAGA — Or I wouldn’t have won the Presidential Election in a LANDSLIDE.

MAGA agrees with me, and just gave CNN a 100% Approval Rating of “TRUMP,” not Hand Flailing Fools like Tucker Carlson, who couldn’t even finish College, he was a broken man when he got fired from Fox, and he’s never been the same — Perhaps he should see a good psychiatrist! Or Megyn Kelly, who nastily asked me the now famous, “Only Rosie O’Donnell,” question, or “Crazy” Candace Owens, who accuses the Highly Respected First Lady of France of being a man, when she is not, and will hopefully win lots of money in the ongoing lawsuit. Actually, to me, the First Lady of France is a far more beautiful woman than Candace, in fact, it’s not even close! Or Bankrupt Alex Jones, who says some of the dumbest things, and lost his entire fortune, as he should have, for his horrendous attack on the families of the Sandy Hook shooting victims, ridiculously claiming it was a hoax.

These so-called “pundits” are LOSERS, and they always will be! Now Fake News CNN, The Failing New York Times, and all of the other Radical Left “News” Organizations, are “hailing” them, and giving them “positive” press for the first time in their lives. They’re not “MAGA,” they’re losers, just trying to latch on to MAGA. As President, I could get them on my side anytime I want to, but when they call, I don’t return their calls because I’m too busy on World and Country Affairs and, after a few times, they go “nasty,” just like Marjorie “Traitor” Brown, but I no longer care about that stuff, I only care about doing right for our Country. MAGA is about WINNING and STRENGTH in not allowing Iran to have Nuclear Weapons. MAGA is about MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and these people have no idea how to do that, BUT I DO, because THE UNITED STATES IS NOW THE “HOTTEST” COUNTRY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD! President DONALD J. TRUMP
 
 
 
Thomas
Professor Guide
3.1  Thomas  replied to  JohnRussell @3    7 months ago

The ravings of a foolish madman

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3.1.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  Thomas @3.1    7 months ago
The ravings of a foolish madman

Clearly.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Guide
3.2  Krishna  replied to  JohnRussell @3    7 months ago
I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon — Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs.
They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too! Look at their past, look at their record. They don’t have what it takes, and they never did!

Pot. Kettle. Black. . . ???

 
 
 
Gsquared
Professor Expert
4  Gsquared    7 months ago
The most important thing to understand about the "madman theory" of foreign policy is that it was designed by losers for losers.

That explains why Trump supporters are so enthralled by it.

 
 
 
shona1
Professor Quiet
4.1  shona1  replied to  Gsquared @4    7 months ago

Yes... let's just hope their one remaining brain cell doesn't breed..

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
5  JBB    7 months ago

Hold Up! Didn't Trump already free Iran and declare victory? Because, I am sure MAGA celebrated exactly that about a week ago...

Inflation was already rising before Trump's blundered us into Iran.

Who will be the world's first rrillionaire? Will it be Putin or Trump?

Suckers!

 
 

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