Trump's Desperate Madman Ploy
By: David Frum (The Atlantic)
Does Trump seem crazy? Sure. Credible, not so much.
By David FrumNathan Howard / GettyApril 8, 2026, 4:43 PM ET ShareSave Listen−1.0x+Seek0:004:20
The most important thing to understand about the "madman theory" of foreign policy is that it was designed by losers for losers.
The world first heard of the madman theory from a 1978 memoir by President Richard Nixon's former chief of staff H. R. Haldeman. According to Haldeman, Nixon said: "I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war." Faced with an otherwise hopeless war in Vietnam, Nixon would pretend to be crazy to intimidate the North Vietnamese into allowing him some face-saving escape.
Nobody executes a madman strategy when he feels that he's winning. Strong and successful powers emphasize consistency and predictability. So do powers that hope to be seen as strong and successful. When China's foreign minister speaks to the world, he uses language such as "China will be a reliable force for stability" and China "is providing the greatest certainty in this uncertain world." He understands that true power does not need to boast or yell.
Those who feel their power ebbing, however, may bluster and bellow. Over the seven weeks of his Iran war so far, Donald Trump has discovered that no amount of the force at his disposal will calm world energy markets or boost his sagging poll numbers. He has tried a double strategy of promising imminent breakthroughs in negotiations while posting ever more violent threats on social media to ostensibly accelerate those negotiations. But if this was a madman strategy, it signally failed to gain the advantage that he sought. Everyone could see that Trump wanted a deal more than his Iranian counterparts did. A good rule of thumb is that the side that wants a deal more is the side that is losing.
The madman strategy is for not-crazy leaders caught in adverse predicaments. It's a strategy of deception. The madman strategist pretends to be willing to do things that he's not really willing to do. This approach relies on credibility: Rivals must be able to take the threat of extreme action seriously.
Trump's problems with this strategy are ironic. Foreign leaders are surely willing to believe that Trump is "crazy" in the sense that he is detached from reality. They have seen him miscalculate risk and bungle all kinds of projects, such as his trade wars with China and his attempted coup on January 6, 2021. But they also know that when push really comes to shove, Trump will flinch. TACO has become, like NATO, an acronym so familiar that it no longer needs spelling out.
The Iranians just executed the most dramatic TACO event in history. Trump threatened to annihilate their entire civilization if they didn't agree to his demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran defied the threat—and now Trump has apparently conceded control over the strait and the right to impose tolls on the ships that navigate it. On the point in which Trump tried hardest to terrorize, the Iranians aptly guessed that he was bluffing.
Trump has taught the world that he has every quality of the madman except indifference to pain. He likes his wars unilateral, quick, and cheap. He won't seek consent from Congress; he cannot appeal to public opinion. He just gambles that the war will end before his poll numbers sink too deep. When this latest war of his turned difficult, he panicked. Everyone could see the panic, including the Iranians. His blood-curdling Truth Social posts—shocking as they were—proclaimed desperation, not resolve. That's the Trump version of the madman strategy: yelling at people in the street while begging those same people for a bailout. What's the opposite of the expression crazy like a fox?
About the Author
David FrumFollowDavid Frum is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the host of The David Frum Show podcast.Explore More Topics2026 Iran war, Donald Trump, Iran, January 6 United States Capitol attack, NATO, People's Republic of China, Richard Nixon, Strait of Hormuz, United States Congress, Vietnam
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Trump's Iran Deal Gives Him Nothing He Wanted - The Atlantic
Oh but you 'liberals' are again wrong. Trump got what he wanted. Iran has unconditionally surrendered, a new different reasonable regime is in power, and it has agreed to be a peaceful nation that will never threaten its neighbors or try to build nuclear weapons.
It is not as though the USA spent blood (lives), treasure, political capital, etc. only to raise the ire (and provide a new layer of reasons to promote the USA as evil) of a multi-headed snake and give it the excuse to control and toll passage through the Strait of Hormuz ... or anything like that.
What we appear to be seeing is that Trump doesnt ultimately care about any of the suggested goals of the war. He cares about how he is perceived.
True. It is always a show with Trump. A show for self-aggrandizement.
It continues to amaze me that anyone falls for this crap.
So ummm... yeah. Who would have seen that coming?
he has it in spades
It is evident to me that Trump has no clue about how to negotiate or conduct himself or the nation at war. We are worse off in terms of standing with our colleagues as a nation, we have lost credibility (further) with anyone who does not have their head planted firmly in the MAGA-verse, we now have to deal with a hot adversarial relationship with Iran. Iran has learned that they can indeed control the Strait of Hormuz with very little expense... How can we handle all of this winning?
But according to the faithful we are doing just fine.
Faithful worshippers --
Well, I guess that there is nothing in the constitution saying you cannot rule from the insane asylum. /s
I mean if congress and the cabinet are going to both roll over and play supplicant to the mad king, until we make change, nothing is going to change.
Reminds me of a quote attributed to P.T. Barnum:
There's a sucker born every minute.
(Although FWIW, powerful as that is, that quote apparently did not originate with him).
That reminds me of a quote (attributed to Albert Einstein):
Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not entirely sure about the universe.
That's next.
The American people have already shown that convicted felons, rapists, and pedophiles can rule this country. And they covered all 3 with 1 candidate.
Well, at least President Trump got us out of the Ukrainian quagmire. Hopefully Trump saved enough ammunition to end the civilization in Cuba. They're kinda in bad shape down there and could use a little help.
I wonder how many weeks it will take Trump to bomb Greenland back to the Ice Age?
Depends. Is Greenland before or after Canada?
Good thing I left.
Morning..
Or did he mean Iceland and got confused with Greenland again...
Hell he will probably bomb both at least that way he will get one right...
😁
even trump doesn't know what he means now ...
Morning Vangy..does anyone?
Was reported here Iran has now mined the Strait..
The news just gets better and better over there..🙄
Trump's wars have significantly depleted U.S. ammunition and other defense reserves-- much of the "smart money" on Wall St. is now purchasing stocks in American defense companies as they anticipate production of these weapons will have to continue for a long time . . .
(Re-stocking necessary reserves of ammunition, defensive rockets, etc. will probably continue for some time),
The ravings of a foolish madman
Clearly.
Pot. Kettle. Black. . . ???
That explains why Trump supporters are so enthralled by it.
Yes... let's just hope their one remaining brain cell doesn't breed..
Hold Up! Didn't Trump already free Iran and declare victory? Because, I am sure MAGA celebrated exactly that about a week ago...
Inflation was already rising before Trump's blundered us into Iran.
Who will be the world's first rrillionaire? Will it be Putin or Trump?
Suckers!