Surging Inflation Complicates Trump’s Final Push to Sell Voters on Strong Economy
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
www.nytimes.com /2026/10/14/business/economy/inflation-economy-midterms.html
Surging Inflation Complicates Trump’s Final Push to Sell Voters on Strong Economy
Tony Romm 7-8 minutes 10/14/2026
The final inflation report before the 2026 election — showing price increases and stagnant wages — spelled bad political news for the White House.
President Trump visited Wasilla, Alaska, for a campaign rally on Tuesday. Credit... Doug Mills/The New York Times
Oct. 14, 2026 Updated 2:42 p.m. ET
Touring the country in the final days of a high-stakes midterm campaign, President Trump has frequently returned to his signature economic theme: A nation long racked by high prices has finally seen relief after two years of Republican control.
“Every time they want to try and get me, they say affordability,” Mr. Trump decried during a speech in Wasilla, Alaska, late Tuesday, before claiming that he had delivered “substantial” improvements for families.
Not even a full day later, however, the government’s own data told a markedly different story. The last inflation report before the 2026 election showed that price increases had accelerated in September, undermining Mr. Trump’s closing argument and perhaps evincing the political rout for Republicans still to come.
Overall, consumer prices rose 3.7 percent last month from a year earlier, driven largely by a spike in energy costs stemming from the war with Iran. The consequences of that increase were evident across the economy, as a vast set of goods, including electronics and home heating, became more expensive.
The surge in inflation also continued to eat into workers’ hourly earnings, further magnifying the strain on families’ wallets. The data released on Wednesday showed that Americans, on average, had experienced about zero wage growth in real terms since the president returned to the White House in January last year.
The poor marks only further undercut Mr. Trump’s initial source of political strength: a simmering frustration with the state of the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The public’s palpable and bipartisan anger about inflation — and Democrats’ inability to tame it — had helped to propel Republicans into the majority two years ago.
Yet, like their predecessors, Mr. Trump and his Republican allies have since found themselves trying to convince Americans that the economy is better than they think. In the president’s own words, the problem is primarily bad “public relations,” though his argument has become harder to make in light of the government’s own dour data.
The gap between Mr. Trump’s view of the economy and Americans’ experiences with it has been evident in recent days as the president and his top aides fan national television airwaves and rallies with less than a month before they cast their midterm ballots.
“With respect to the midterms, in particular, this cake has already been baked,” said Oren Cass, the founder and chief economist at American Compass, a conservative think tank. He said it was “not like there was any prospect of a report today that was going to change people’s feeling about inflation and gas prices,” which remain high.
“And so this was obviously going to be a very serious political challenge for the White House and the Republican Party,” Mr. Cass added.
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At the start of the week, Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, argued on Fox Business that inflation had “decelerated sharply over the last three months,” while blaming the problem on former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who left office almost two years ago.
One day later, though, Mr. Hassett returned to the network and acknowledged the inflation report was “disappointing,” even as he pointed to a handful of areas where prices had improved. He attributed much of the problem to the war with Iran, a conflict — now nearing the close of its eighth month — that Mr. Trump once promised to conclude in mere weeks.
“A lot of Trump policies are helping to keep inflation down, but the energy shock is really the headline story today,” he said.
The surge in inflation reported Wednesday stemmed largely from rising energy costs amid widening turmoil in the Middle East. By Wednesday, the average cost of a gallon of gasoline nationwide topped $4.33, according to AAA, down from its recent peak but still over a dollar higher than it was a year ago.
But the conflict has strained families beyond the price at the pump: Heating costs also soared in September, according to the data, coinciding with the arrival of cooler temperatures in broad areas of the United States. It has also pushed up airfares, which were up 1.2 percent in September and 22.4 percent over the year.
Mr. Trump’s agenda appeared to shape the nation’s persistent battle against high prices in other ways. The defining feature of his second-term strategy — withering global tariffs — may have nudged up some prices, including toys. And then there were forces outside the president’s control, including the exuberance around artificial intelligence. That drove up the cost of consumer electronics significantly in September.
Democrats quickly seized on the inflation report as they sought to persuade voters to return them to a majority in the House and Senate. Representative Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, who leads the party on the House Budget Committee, said the data reflected Mr. Trump’s “broken promises and economic failures” since returning to office.
“President Trump promised to end inflation and lower costs ‘on day one,’” Mr. Boyle said. “More than 600 days into his second term, he has done the exact opposite, driving up costs for American families with his disastrous war in Iran and reckless tariff taxes.”
For its part, the White House was still quick to remind that there were plenty of categories where consumers had witnessed some relief, including in some food and drug prices. Mr. Hassett, during his appearance on Fox Business, maintained that the economy otherwise was strong, and that consumer spending remained healthy.
But his reassurances contrasted starkly with consumer surveys , which increasingly show Americans are having trouble affording basic goods and generally do not have an upbeat view on the economy. That has translated into poor marks for Mr. Trump in recent polling, some of which reveal that voters blame the president for their finances.
Some economists saw reason to believe that policymakers would face a long, difficult task to bring inflation back in check. In a research note, Gregory Daco, the chief economist for EY-Parthenon, said forces including the war and artificial intelligence could keep inflation “elevated heading into 2027 and further pressure household purchasing power.”
Ben Casselman, Colby Smith and Sydney Ember contributed reporting from New York.
Tony Romm is a reporter covering economic policy and the Trump administration for The Times, based in Washington.
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Time's up.
And so what if enough American voters have sufficient brain-power to provide control ot both houses of Congress to limit the destructive insanity of Trump, those who have the authority to invoke Article 25 to disable him don't have the balls to do it. In any event, the Trump-owned SCotUS whoud do whatever it could to save his ass anyway. Besides, who do the Democrats have with sufficient ability and charisma to replace him? Josh Shapiro? Do you think that the American voters would have him as PotUS?
You don't grasp how article 25 works.
Very sorry, I never studied American politics. You explain it to me, please.
Cat got your fingers?
LOL. Well, maybe he's unable to explain it, or is just reluctant to educate me about it for some reason, even though he was quick to post that I was unable to "grasp" it..
In a nutshell:
The VP and Cabinet (by simple majority) state in writing that the PotUS is unable to perform the duties of office. VP then becomes acting PotUS. Upon dispute by Trump, Congress decides. It takes a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate to override Trump.
I cannot tell from your comment that you had a misunderstanding.
I think we all know (painfully) that Trump's band of loyal sycophants would never pull this trigger, but that is how it would work.
Thanks TiG. I guess I really didn't know - it takes a lot more to dump him than I thought. I hope that Democrat majorities in both Houses (if God has any empathy for America) would at least put some limits on his craziness.
That is the best chance we have at this point.
Taunting me Buzz?? tsk tsk,
I'll await your apology.
You had two choices for your reply to my request to educate me about the procedure. The first was to be gentlemany and helpful like TiG was, and the second was to insult my intelligence and knowledge. I'm sure everybody here is aware of which you were bound to choose. The cobweb is to indicate HOW LONG it took for your response.
COLA was announced today for 2027 is 3.6%. That's not good news for Trump.
Even worse if it's sugar-free.
Overall, consumer prices rose 3.7 percent last month from a year earlier, driven largely by a spike in energy costs stemming from the war with Iran.
Wars are inflationary. And now it looks like the war on Iran is spreading.
The war is growing larger:
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have in recent days attacked Riyadh's international airport and the state oil giant Saudi Aramco, amid renewed fighting with the Saudi-backed forces.
We can expect the price we pay for gas to increase even more . . . .
The Houthi's need to be Gazza'ed.
The whole Iran-controlled triumvirate of Gaza, Hezbollah and the Houthies need to be destroyed. But then, if you destroy the queen bee, the whole hive is done.
The Houthi's need to be Gazza'ed.
But you can't do that because then you will be accused of "genocide"!
The Houthi's need to be Gazza'ed.But you can't do that because then you will be accused of "genocide"!
Although some do have the courage to take a stand:
International pop icon Boy George has announced a second concert in Israel titled #We Will Dance Again,” with the entire evening dedicated to the survivors and families of the Nova music festival.
The announcement for the November 7 concert comes on the heels of a rapid sell-out of his first scheduled performance on November 4.
"What Israel is doing now does not meet the technical definition of genocide" or "It is not a holocaust" as defenses for Israel's grossly disproportionate actions in Gaza and the West Bank are notable as the "He is not as bad as Hitler" defense for dictators and tyrants.
their real estate isn't worth anything ...
Are you aware of what were Hamas' actions? They were not merely shooting people. Rather, they deliberately committed horrendous atrocitites-- and then all the while with Go-Pros to film it all.
Hamas deliberately did horrible things in order to make sure they'd resally upset the Israelis-- and they did!
(Hamas won the war of October-- it was a brilliant though extremely sadistic strategy--they got what they wanted! ). Israel lost-- big time!
The Houthis control access to the Red Sea and therefor the Suez canal,
And Socotra is part of Yemen-- an amazing place like nowhere else in the world!
About Socotra:
Biodiversity: Designated as a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2008 due to its unique ecosystems, it is often called the "Galápagos of the Indian Ocean".
Over 35% of its plant species—such as the iconic umbrella-shaped Dragon's Blood Tree and the Bottle Tree —are endemic (found nowhere else on Earth)
How many times have I pointed that out. That was the whole intention of Hamas, as trained to do it by their masters, Iran, in order to create the world wide Israel/Jew hatred around the world, and they succeeded.
What is it that P T Barnum is reputed to have said?