Biden looks screwed even if he wins
By: Ryan Lizza (MSN)
Note this is an opinion piece.........and seems quite accurate.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Biden looks screwed even if he wins
This is not the outcome Democrats expected.
Despite many bold predictions of a rout in which Democrats gained (or re-gained) Trumpian red territory of 2016, as of early Wednesday only one state — Arizona — had flipped from red to blue. Six states remain outstanding: Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Assuming North Carolina and Georgia have slipped away from Biden — Georgia is not out of reach for him — and that Nevada remains blue, the best-case scenario for the former vice president is a 290-electoral vote victory. That's more than George W. Bush achieved in his two successful campaigns (271 in 2000 and 286 in 2004), but fewer than Barack Obama (365 in 2008 and 332 in 2012) and Donald Trump (304 in 2016).
A win, of course, is a win. But if Biden is victorious, it will be under radically curtailed circumstances from what Democrats had assumed.
There are few hints in the 2020 results of a realignment akin to what Ronald Reagan achieved when he made Jimmy Carter a one-term president in 1980 and ushered in the era of modern conservatism. There is no sense that Biden has reformed and re-invented the Democratic Party to be more competitive the way Bill Clinton did in 1992, when he defeated George H.W. Bush. There aren't yet hints that Biden has assembled a new coalition the way that Obama did in 2008.
Biden lost ground with Black voters and Latinos, though he gained some ground with white voters. Realignments are generally built around concrete ideas and specific policy platforms. But this campaign was always a referendum on Trump, rather than an affirmative endorsement of Biden and his agenda. That dynamic already cut against Biden claiming a strong positive mandate. He needed a crushing rejection of Trump to strengthen his case.
He also needed the Senate.
But Democrats may fail to realize widespread predictions of re-taking the chamber. That would mean whoever prevails in the presidential race, Mitch McConnell might remain in charge of the upper chamber, retaining his role as arguably the most consequential politician in Washington. In that case Biden would be the first president in 32 years to come into office without control of Congress, another dynamic that would weaken claims of a mandate.
The Democrats' anti-filibuster movement and its interest in expanding the Supreme Court and the Senate, or any other process reforms to maximize a new Democratic president's power and influence, would be placed on pause. A President Biden's agenda would be defined by his ability to win over the entire Senate Democratic caucus, from Bernie Sanders to Joe Manchin, and then as many as 10 Republicans. Ultimately, Biden would have to deal with McConnell, who would undoubtedly reprise the role he played in the Obama era when he had no incentive to help Obama rack up legislative achievements.
Final results that fall short of a massive rejection of Trump, as seems likely, would fail to trigger the repudiation of Trumpism in the Republican Party that many Democrats — and a minority of Republicans — had hoped for. As John Harris argues, whatever the final numbers, Trump's appeal to half the country has proven to be durable. Even a narrow Biden victory would generate a larger debate about Trump's harm to Republicans, but the full-scale de-Trumpification of the GOP required a landslide.
To be sure, presidents who have won narrow victories have been able to turn them into consequential presidencies. Bill Clinton, a popular vote plurality victor, passed much of his first term agenda and comfortably won reelection. Circumstances can always intervene. George W. Bush, the lowest electoral vote winner in modern history, vastly expanded executive branch powers after 9/11 on his way to reelection.
But this is not the scenario many Democrats hoped and prepared for. They wanted a landslide that ended before midnight on Election Day, one that unambiguously crushed Trump and Trumpism, swept in a Democratic Senate, and showed a large majority for the Biden agenda.
Some of these goals could become more real as the final numbers post. But instead, at least for now, Democrats have an unsettled outcome, a real possibility of a second Trump term, and in that vacuum of uncertainty a president who immediately began sowing doubts about the final results, in a speech in the East Room at 2:30 a.m., and making anti-democratic threats to disenfranchise Americans.
In fairness, a lot of Biden advisers tried to tamp down expectations. A senior Biden adviser told me last week that the "path of least resistance" for a Biden victory was through Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the single electoral vote from Nebraska-2, a combination that wouldn't require North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, or even Pennsylvania. It would be just enough for 270 electoral votes.
On Wednesday morning that appeared to be one of the more likely paths for Biden to become president: a bare victory, but victory nonetheless.
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Gonna be an interesting week or so............
"But this is not the scenario many Democrats hoped and prepared for. They wanted a landslide that ended before midnight on Election Day, one that unambiguously crushed Trump and Trumpism, swept in a Democratic Senate, and showed a large majority for the Biden agenda."
Nope, so, it's on to Plan B and Plan B involves ballots that only require a blotch for a post mark and no properly vetted signature. It will take place in a state/city that is used to election improprieties and scandal. They already know how many ballots that need to appear!
This process has been used for decades, counting mail-in/absentee ballots, and now you are suspect...or is it because more Democrats used mail-in/absentee ballots this year?
It's because of what I said - PA is accepting ballots after election day that may not be postmarked and they won't even verify the signatures.
Do you really want ballots to magically appear now?
That would explain the tense silence.
The U.S. Supreme Court said Monday that election officials in Pennsylvania can count absentee ballots received as late as the Friday after Election Day so long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3. In its ruling, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court said that ballots could be counted if they were received by 5 p.m. Nov. 6, as long as they were mailed by Election Day, Nov. 3. It also said that ballots without a postmark would "be presumed to have been mailed by Election Day" unless there was strong evidence to the contrary.
The US Supreme Court kicked it back to the PA Supreme Court. It was a 4-4 ruling. I believe Justice Roberts does not want the SCOTUS involved in state elections. In effect he may have put the Supreme Court right in the middle of it and next time there will be a full 9 member Court.
It also said that ballots without a postmark would "be presumed to have been mailed by Election Day" unless there was strong evidence to the contrary.
That's kind of stupid, isn't it? Or are they promoting fraud?
Let me ask you - exactly how many PA mail-in ballots are uncounted right now? Do you know? Does anyone?
As of 5 min. ago, only 64% reporting.
See photo below.
It's like squeezing cards at the Poker table. Is this the way an election should be?
All you are doing is mouthing Trump's "logic". Trump wanted to STOP the vote counting at the moment he said the words. All those votes were in hand at that moment. People werent still voting at one o clock in the morning, they had ALREADY VOTED. Trump wanted to stop the counting of votes that had already been made. Trump supporters should be utterly ashamed of themselves.
Proof please.
I honestly don't know. It's super close and it's like watching a very intense World Series baseball game.
I have to laugh, if Republicans did not try voter suppression, did not bring lawsuits before the courts, this probably wouldn't have been an issue, but Republicans could not help themselves, and so they reaped what they sowed, decisions against them regarding voting.
Lisa Lerer, (NYT) in Orlando, Fla. Just now
Biden pulled ahead in Michigan, as another batch of votes rolled in from Wayne county, where Detroit is located. That heavily Democratic area is currently reporting 70 percent of returns. See Michigan results ›
70 percent of the Wayne County returns are counted Vic. Are you seriously telling us you don't want to count 100% of the votes from Wayne County, Michigan ?
FALSE!
He said, "We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at 4 o’clock in the morning and add them to the list, okay?" In other words, he doesn't want people VOTING after election day, or fraudulent ballots delivered. Which is the law.
Trump wanted to stop the counting of votes that had already been made. Trump supporters should be utterly ashamed of themselves.
No, the scum - PA Gov Tom Wolf and his Lt Gov should be ashamed, hopefully will be nailed for trying to stuff the ballot boxes. Let's get the DOJ on it. Let's look at where the ballots are right now!
Ya, We don't believe in "ballot harvesting", fraud or non-citizen voting. You got us there!
You know what I said. None of the fraud democrats are so fond of.
Trump is a fricking lying dog conspiracy nut. He can reap what he has sown.
Let them do a recount of Michigan and Wisconsin and match every vote to a registered voter. Trump can sit there in a high chair and observe the whole process. Will that get our "conservatives" to shut the fuck up?
Oh stop, John. You have three battleground states slow walking the process. All three have democrat governors.
Let them do a recount of Michigan and Wisconsin and match every vote to a registered voter. Trump can sit there in a high chair and observe the whole process. Will that get our "conservatives" to shut the fuck up?
We were only questioning PA John. We will accept the results if you will.
Of course Biden would get Detroit. They voted for Kwame several times too.
Detroit has always been a Democrat city.
Look at the date on this story Vic
Michigan allows limited early ballot processing, but counting still expected to stretch past election night
Its from Oct 6. , a month ago.
It was always known that counting the over 2 million mail in votes in Michigan would last past Nov 3. so why in fuck is Trump complaining ? I know why ! Because he is an anti-democratic (small d) scumbag.
It's citizens seem to love punishment!
Does that bother you?
By law, if the vote counts are less than 2000 difference, the State of Michigan performs a recount.
Source:
Therefore, if the counts are that close... there will be a recount even when there's no contesting of said count.
Why would any of that bother me? I have no control over it. However, I find if funny that Detroit is notorious for voting in criminals.
Because it's stupid and it invites fraud. Florida counted them as they came in. They had more than anyone. They got it done with integrity!
Thats ironic considering many people voted a criminal into the White House in 2016 and are trying to do so again right now.
Because they were burned before.
And yet... Kwame is in prison for stealing their money and people of Detroit said they would vote him in again.
I hope you're not insinuating I was one of them, because I wasn't.
A POLITICO review of ballot processing timelines in 13 battleground states last month found that three critical Great Lakes battlegrounds — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — did not allow election administrators to begin processing mail ballots until Election Day.
Florida did not begin processing their mail in votes on election day. They began much earlier.
Florida
No Shit John! I didn't need Politico to confirm what I said!
The way Florida did it was obviously the way to do it!
PA is in a very questionable position. The Philadelphia area has a notorious reputation of cheating - very similar to Detroit, NYC, and Chicago.
Bullshit John. He said to stop the voting NOT the counting. You really need to explore other sources. Really.
It's because of the four years of anti trump propaganda by the media while ignoring anything the left does/did. It's because of four years of obstruct, delay, resist the duly elected President by democrat employees of government agencies. It's because of the four years of the democratic parties witch hunts and the anti Trump holy war they've waged and the defeat Trump anyway and at any cost mission. They'll do it because they can, they think it's right thing to do and the media will cover/defend them. They have Anti-Trump mental illness and they will lie, cheat, and steal to defeat him. They've been prepared for this for years but because of the huge amounts of mail-in's this years it just makes it easier to cover their tracks.
Or, possibly, its because some people have a severe case of "TDS" (AKA "Truth derangement Syndrome") a cult that never questions anything Trump does and say, and thinks Biden would look "screwed" even if he won all states, ended the Pandemic, cut taxes, created full employment-- and created peace and prosperity for all! Which can't happen, but even if it did, it wouldn't change their minds!
And that "if" is just for starters-- you'd really have to have an understanding of how cults work to fully realize why... those with that form of "TDS" think Biden looks :Screwed"-- as do any and all democrats and all Republicans who aren't kow-towing to Trump's every word!
Of course that's just my opinion.../s
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reminds me of the 1948 ballot box 13 scandal in texas .
Right now, it's a scary close race in Michigan.
I've never seen anything this damn close. These are the swing states as of 9:20 am EST.
It's really down to 4 battleground states.
On Wall Street, they are just happy that Republicans retained control of the Senate.
Exactly while the pundits claim it is because of the possibility of a Biden win..........yeah right. Dems and business are oil and water. Look back at 2008 in the lead up to the election. It was either going to be Clinton or Obama and the outlook at that time, the smart money at least, was dreading what would come with a dem POTUS
Side note. Who in the holy hell told Biden he has to YELL when talking? Irritating as Trump may be, that old "get off my lawn" old man yelling is pathetic. Is he deaf along with borderline senile and into dementia?
There are microphones and amplifiers Joe.....................
Joe also recently started doing that cool Obama trot when entering an area or coming down plane stairs a few weeks ago. BTW - Obama YELLED at his paltry "support" speeches for Biden, too. Two very angry men. Pathetic!
Personally I think he is a drinker which causes his slurring and his shuffling so he doesn't fall. I don't think it is senility.
I don't know why Biden slurs his words and shuffles... or suddenly "trots". I've known many people who stutter, but none of them slur their words. Maybe it's medication intended to keep him alert but has side-effects of cognitive disabilities and forgetfulness? He's also had serious brain aneurysms and surgeries which can cause brain damage.
Let's look at the whole picture, shall we? (I just logged off my computer sites of the market-- having been watching it since about 8:30 AM, doing 4 or 5 trades which is more than usual).
What the vast majority of people on Wall Street want is a divided gov't. What they're really happy about-- as usual-- is not which candidate won or lost the presidency-- or each house of Congress.
Rather, regardless of which party controls each branch, what they want is a divided gov't!
The presidency is still undecided-- but assuming Biden were to win the presidency, if the Republicans ended up in control of one house of Congress-- that would mostly result in "Gridlock"-- which is what wall Street wants! (The assumption being that the more the government accomplishes, the more they will screw things up!!! regardless of party.)
President Reagan really understood the dangers of Communism, as well as the benefits of Democracy-- and Capitalism! (IMO, more than any other person, he was single-handedly responsible for the fall of the Soviet Union-- but that another topic).
And one of the sayings he was perhaps most famous for was this:
Both Reagan well as Wall Street understand that concept well. The best case scenario is when the government is divided, and we therefore have "gridlock"! Recently the assumption was that Biden would win the Presidency-- so if that were the case, Republican control of even one house of Congress would be ideal!
Because then the government can't do their usual schtick-- which is to take action...and FUCK THINGS UP!
Takeaways:
So the polls were way off, again.
Money can't buy the Democrats elections. How many hundreds of millions of dollars have they wasted trying to beat Graham, McConnnell, flip Texas etc? They pretty much doubled the Republican spend, again, on the Presidency and will win a coin flip.
The Lincoln Project might be the biggest joke of all time. Twitter likes from far left activists don't move votes. But the grifters who ran it walked away rich from taking money from far left activists, so they got that going for them..
Trumpism is more popular than Trump.
Gee thats a pity because Trumpism is largely racism and white nationalism.
It's lies like that that are the reason four years of false propaganda by the left wing media has barely budged the electorate. The people know it's not true and the left wing media is like the boy who cried wolf, they've told so many bold faced lies that nobody believes a word they say.
Maybe Biden should take a page out of Trump's playbook and proclaim it one of the biggest electoral wins of all time.
Biden's a moderate Democrat. A split Congress keeps the progressives off his back and lets him pursue middle of the road policy which is what he wants to do anyway.
Would like to see both McConnell and Pelosi replaced by their parties. I think John Thune would do a much better job of getting useful bipartisan legislation passed in the Senate than Mitch has ever come close to.
Not according to Fox news, LOL!
(Some of these "geniuses" may even think Biden is to the Left Stalin and Mao).