Tariff statement by Trump causes stock market to plummet :-(
Wall St drops on Trump tariff comments
The Dow and S&P 500 registered a third straight day of more than 1 percent declines on Thursday after President Donald Trump said the United States would impose import tariffs on steel and aluminum, raising concern about higher prices and a trade war.
Industrial heavyweights like Boeing and Caterpillar also fell as investors worried about higher raw material costs and trade barriers elsewhere.
The declines put the Dow into negative territory for the year.
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Shares of auto makers and other big consumers of steel and aluminum added to their session losses after Trump said the United States would impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on imported aluminum next week.
If Trump gets these incredibly stupid tariffs passed, American industry will suffer-- and it looks like major layoff of many American workers are in the cards.
You have absolutely no idea of what you are talking about!
Unlike most of the other folks here on NT!
LOL.
Can you think of anyone else it will hurt? Just keep in mind, it's like a game of cards. Bluffing is a tactic Trump has done well with since running and winning the election. You'll see, but I don't know if you'll recognize it.
He has a few extra dollars to work with such a booming economy. He doesn't have the constant quantative easing Obama had or the restraint on raising the interest rate for 8 years, but even though they expect to raise it 4 times this year without any quantative easing, just be thankful Obama didn't do that. We would have sunk into another recession.
I'm not in favor of it.
I'll definitely recognize it. In fact I know a lot about it because I've done it myself!
Trump has often talked about how he's a great negotiator.. And I think he is-- at least in certain settings.
For example, he's often spoken about how certain deals we've made in the past are not to out advantage-- they were poorly negotiated on our part. For example trade deals like NAFTA, trade deals with China, etc. And in addition to trade deals, other deals as well-- for example the nuclear treaty things with Iran.
So one positive about Trump is his skill at making deals-- but a negative is that the way that succeeds in making deals in the private sector (specifically in the Real Estate business) is often not successful in being an American political leader-- both in domestic politics as well as in attempting to make favourable deals with other countries (China, Mexico, etc).
Actually I knew you would recognize it Krishna, but the way I started that sentence out was in the singular and I finished it the same way. I was also in a hurry and didn't have time to think about what I wanted to say as much as I needed to before typing and leaving it as it came out. I did think about the use of the word 'you' after I typed it, but decided I would deal with that if it came up, which it did. Now I'm too tired to get too involved, which I have to be in order to say anything worthwhile reading.
A lot of the time, it's like he's testing the water. He has turned off quite a few supporters with this tariff idea and also the possibility of bending or giving up on the 2nd amendment. Some of us realize the Left are determined to remove guns from the American Citizens. That's their goal, always has been their goal and always will be their goal and there is nothing that can convince me otherwise at this point in time.
Some things do need to be made in the USA and steel may be one of them, I don't know, but I do know software in fighter jets doesn't need to be dependent on some other country providing it for us. We'll have to see what all this turns out to be in the days and weeks ahead to see if he is sticking to his guns or is throwing in his towel, because he may as well throw his towel in if he allows the Democrats to control the gun debate.
Now I know we don't agree on many things, even what I have said above, but this is the way a conversation should go and you are welcome to debate my ideas and totally disagree with them if you want, because we can always agree to disagree.
The exact thought Bush 2 had when he inherited Clinton's surpluses. That didn't turn out too well either. Trump is determined to do everything better than his predecessors, now he trying to out do Bush with an even bigger recession.
Bill Clinton didn't have any control over it, but the Dot.com bubble was coming apart at its seams when Bush took office. There was nothing I can think of that would give Clinton any credit for any surplus unless you can think of it. As I recall Newt Ginrich and company should have been given credit instead of Clinton for any surpluses. The most I can say for Clinton is he did allow their polices to go forward.
The Republicans controlled both Houses in Congress for 7 of the 8 years Clinton was President and back then they weren't spend thrifts as both Parties are today.
One of the most important things always forgotten in claiming fame as a President is what is going on in the economy and the Dot.com growth, which provided much more tax money than anyone ever expected made it a lot easier for Clinton's terms to be better than say Bush's or even Obama's terms as Presidents. Neither one of them had any extraordinary vehicle that boosted the economy along like Clinton had. The only problem was the Dot.com engine was running ragged by the time of his departure and companies were closing their doors left and right by the time he left office, leaving Bush with an oncoming recession and 911.
Bush didn't do a good job in my opinion either as a President. I never cared for him other than his personality, like Clinton's were much more appealing than Trumps. After Bush came Obama and I never cared for him even before he was elected although the MSM treated him like the teacher's pet throughout his two terms, I saw his intentions weren't anything like I wanted in a President. He was well spoken, but there were too many things he did that ignored the rule of law and the Constitution to suit me. The term Racist became the term used for anyone who disagreed with him and I knew many others who weren't black I would have rather had as President. The country took a sharp turn in the wrong direction during his Presidency. I don't expect to get any agreement from the Democrats on this, but that is my opinion.
You obviously haven't read Newt's book. He DOES take credit for the balanced budgets while he was Speaker and for the following two years to boot.
Tell me your logic for this;
If there wasn't an annual surplus under Clintons last two years and Bush's first,
why did Bush cut taxes by 1.35 Trillion and authorize Treasury refunds of up to 41200 per household?
Bush believed the government was collecting too much, as evidenced by annual surpluses, and believed,
as all good Republicans do, that a tax cut will stimulate the economy and generate incomes that will reduce the national debt without taxpayers assistance.
Heck, even after the bottom fell out of the market in 2007, bush repeated the same mistake,
lowering 1.5 trillion taxes further and issuing more household refunds.
It didn't work the second time either.
Trickle down economics, did not work in the long term under Reagan, didn't work for Bush and down the road will not work this time.
Isn't the definition of insanity the repetition of the same act repeatedly expecting a different outcome?
Republican-ism can now be interchanged with insanity ?
Why yes why Yes it can
Those were "projected surpluses" that never actually occurred.
They didn't occur because Bush gave all the "projected" money away.
See 2.3.2 for more info about it. And a thank you to Split Personality for the follow up.
No he gave it back to the people it belonged to.
Well, that's a lie. Listed below are the "Debt to the Penny" figures for Clinton's last five FYs and Bush's first. The dollar column to focus on is the first one which is public debt (the next column is intergovernmental debt which reflects government borrowing from the Medicare and Soc. Sec. Trust funds to make up for shortfalls in revenue to cover appropriations).
It should be crystal clear to the honest eye that the public debt begins to go down in 1998 and the next three years for a total of $450B. Then it abruptly rises again by $214B after just the first year of Bush-o-nomics (eventually the Bush deficits amounted to a whopping $4T in public debt and $6T overall.
I anticipate that the ignorant will try to challenge the dates used so as usual I need to remind them that the FY in effect when a new president comes into office began under the former one. I also anticipate the rightwing head explosions that post will trigger and can't wait for the hilarity of the lying that will ensue.
Oh ark,
I love you like no poster can love another, but that's beside today's point that you made.
I'm a card carrying GOP member, BTW, and I did vote for GWB, twice.
GWB did something that no other leader of any country, modern or ancient ever did. He prepared to make war, and cut taxes at the same time. Never, never ever was that done.
Now, of greater import to THIS discussion, which relates to trade, GWB did attempt a similar move to Trump in 2002, although he did it in an attempt to garner compromises with other countries. He backed off, after getting some, but not really enough.
It is my fervent hope that the countries today will turn around a little, realize that they're hurting world trade by allowing China to dump steel, and favor free AND fair trade.
There's a reason it had never been done before, starting two unfunded wars while also cutting over $2 trillion in taxes for the top 2% of earners generates massive deficits and an exploding debt.
The top tax bracket remained 70% after the Kennedy tax cuts. Hardly comparable to today's situation.
Can you think of anyone else it will hurt? Just keep in mind, it's like a game of cards. Bluffing is a tactic Trump has done well with since running and winning the election.
You make some good points. And off course often when there's any news that might effect the market, the initial reaction may be exaggerated. (The market may even be up tomorrrow-- today's decline is probably a knee-jerk reaction),
And while some news does effect all sectors of the market to some degree, more often than not the same effects some sectors positively and others negatively. For example, generally speaking rapidly rising interests rates hurts most sectors (especially real estate where it makes mortgage rates go up. But OTOH rising rates are generally wonderful for banks stocks...).
In this case-- if the these tariffs are indeed imposed (and I agree with what you said-- Trump often uses the negotiator's tactic of bluffing) overall they would probably have a slightly negative effect on the economy-- but possibly a minor one. (Overall, the slight negative impact would probably be more than made up for by the ongoing positive impact of the tax bill-- especially the corporate tax cuts).
If any sectors are significantly effected, it would be slightly negative for much of the economy-- higher raw material costs for industries that arbuy Steel, Aluminum. And slightly higher prices for consumers. Slightly inflationary overall.
But I agree. Basically..it may not happen. And secondly, if they do go into effect the net impact on the overall economy may be very small-- more than offset by economic benefits of the tax bill.
(Personally I would not buy or sell any stocks on this news. Some people are buying U.S. steel manufacturers because they would benefit--- but IMO even that's not a great idea at this time).
I suspect that this action is to fulfill a campaign promise about all the bad trade deals (China)...It would be wise to think this through since it isn't again one country (China) but a tariff on all importers of steel and alum to the U.S.
Three of our allies, South Korea, Canada and Brazil are larger exporters of steel to the U.S. than China is.
Exactly!
An excellent analysis of what Trump is doing.
(More than most presidents, his obsessed wioth keeping support from his "base"> Even though his base is at most only 40% or so of the population, he constantly panders to them..and that true even if some of his positions alienate a higher percentage of his voters than they please the majority.
All things being equal, I would imagine the Dems would have a surprisingly good showing in the off year elections-- while whipping up enthusiam in his base, Trump gradually alienates more and more people. (A Dem victory. Barring, of course, the Dems obsessive tendency to shoot themselves in the foot).
It is common that the Minority Party almost always wins in the off years. That has been happening forever. If the Democrats gain enough power they will impeach Trump, for what I don't know, but it won't matter, they'll do it with votes. Financially, a lot of good things are happening in this country. Society is sick and Trump isn't the person to fix that. He doesn't have the temperament or personality. And it really doesn't matter, we've become so polarized as a country, I don't think anyone I know could accomplish it.
As far as the tariff, I just hope it's a bluff. Kind of like the cold war or something like that, because I think it will have a much bigger effect on the economy than we realize at this time. Remember Japan? Tariffs to save American Cars didn't produce better American cars. They only made people pay more for better cars. You can't protect something and expect to make it better. You have to allow it to fight the battle and make itself better. Of course this is my opinion aside from the extra cost of doing business with tariffs. The company making the product doesn't pay the tariff. The people buying the products always pay the tariff, like the taxes corporations pay aren't paid by the corporations in the end, the end user pays them for the corporation in my opinion.
I'll definitely recognize it. In fact I know a lot about it because I've done it myself!
As for me, I am familiar with making deals and negotiating (including bluffing). In college I did play Poker, lol. But I was much better at "Risk!" (which is generally considered a game of strategy but its also about bluffing...). Unlike Poker, probably most people here aren't familiar with that game I only mention it in the event that someone might be.
But more seriously: I don't like to give out too much information about myself online, but I can tell you this: I was the "shop steward" for my union in my place of work. I did represent the workers (the union position) in negotiations with management. And one tactic that occasionally happened there was "bluffing"-- somewhat similar to what I believe Trump did in his business dealings.
P.S: Online I am usually "Mr. Nice Guy"--- but occasionally I slip into a more combative mode-- as I have done recently. (I usually do it when I'm bored. And BTW, I think that's why Bf does some of what he does-- I call it "Almost But Not Quite Trolling". Because he and I am very similar in the MBTI personality typology-- both ENTPs. I also suspect Bb Nelson may be an ENTP-- but he ain't sayin", lol).
P.S.: I am aware of the fact that when I do it it does irritate most people
This is bullcrap this is the third day of negative numbers for Wall Street and Trump made the statement today. How did the market know he was going to say this two days before he said it? This is fake news.
WASHINGTON — President Trump said on Thursday that he will impose stiff tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum,
Not really.
The previous two days it went down for other reasons.
In fact I thought it would be up today after the recent downturn. But then it reacted to Trump's statement and went down. (I wouldn't be surprised if it rallies in the next session or two).
The market is more complex than people realize. Often a statement or event makes it rally (or plumment ) for a day-- or part of a day. A kneejerk reaction. But then reverses as people begin to realize the initial reaction was overdone.
This is from two days ago before Trump spoke.
Still, the Dow fell by three hundred points after Powell’s appearance. Wall Street, which had been expecting the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, cottoned onto his assertion that the economic outlook had strengthened recently, taking this to mean that four rate hikes, rather than three, could be on the way. Anticipating this possibility, traders sold stocks.
Even before Powell’s testimony, investors had started fretting that Congress’s recent actions would prompt the Fed to raise rates more rapidly, and these worries contributed to the recent wild swings in the stock market.
I think you are missing part of the story here...
America first? By crashing the market? Well done!
Trump has been successful in Real Estate. I think one of his main problems is that he doesn't realize is that the skill set that leads to success as an executive in the private sector is different than that required for success in the public sector.
(This I can tell you: his approach can work in the short term-- but eventually will backfire-- BIGLY!)
Not really. Between his bankruptcies and his current debt, I do not see how he can be considered successful. I've read that his debt to various banks is upwards of 600 million dollars! Of course none of those banks are American, THEY don't give him loans anymore, and they are the better judges of his success.
Exactly.
The market was going down before Trumps comments. But then his comments re Tariffs made it go down even more.
(May guess is it will soon go up if/when traders realize that A-Trump may not follow though, he may not continue to push for it, and B-Given that the state of the U.S. (& generally the world) economy . . . it will continue to go up-- long term. (Regardless of what anyone things about the Tax Plan being unfair..or not..IMO it has helped the overall economy...and should continue to do so. Although personally I don't think itsa good idea to screw around so much with tariffs...).
So lets recap...
Trump and the cons bleat for the last YEAR that the market going up was all because of trump. Couple weeks ago, the market takes a dive and immediately scream that trump had NOTHING to do with it. Trump makes a comment about tariffs, (a REALLY stupid thing to say), and the market plummets....and once again..."Trump had nothing to do with it!!!!".
Moral of the story?
Good = trump did it.
Bad = trump had nothing to do with it.
I sure wish the world was as black and white as the cons think it is. But then, when it comes to religion, they are the same way... Good = God did it.
Bad = Not God.
But then, that's the simplistic mind of a child...I mean, conservative.
According to FOX when it comes to the Market, Bad = It was Obama's Fault.
According to Fox, when it comes to anything "Bad", it's got to be Obama's fault. Bad hair day? Obama's fault. Sour milk? Obamas fault. Someone stole your parking space? Obamas fault.
He had no problem buying cheap steel outside of the US for construction of his buildings but now he wants tariffs?
Bingo.. Exactly. Almost all of the steel he used to build was from China.
This is from yesterday before Trump spoke.
New Fed chief Powell testifies again and could double down on comments that rocked markets
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appears before Congress for a second time Thursday, and it's not likely he will change the comments that sent stocks and bonds reeling Tuesday.
Powell moved the markets when he described how the Fed could change its interest rate forecast when it meets in March, but he said he was not going to "prejudge."
Stocks ended February on a wobbly note, ending a 10-month winning streak that was the longest since 1959.
February's 3.9 percent decline in the S&P 500 was its worst month in two years.
You seem pretty desperate to pin this on Powell. Why? When the markets were going up, the rightists gave all the credit to trump. If it falls, should he not get the blame as well?
No! I think we will take a page out of the liberals playbook used during Obama. When things look good and positive we will take the credit. If things look negative and bad we will blame others. Seemed to work for you.
The market went up for 7 of his eight years... The only ones crying were the rightists.
Because that's a way to try to take the blame off of Trump. (By placing the blame on Powell. Normally that line of thinking would try to, preferably, try to take the blae off Trump by placing it on Hillary-- but that's such a stretch than no one but the most diehard would actually fall for that, lol).
It really has nothing to do with Trump. The fact is Powell's indication there will be rate increases this year is the reason for the stock market's erratic behavior.
You know who Politico is and what you're reading above is an article by them. If anyone would want to put the blame on Trump, Politico would be standing in line to be that one.
That's what irrational buying will do.
As I said I another thread, these Tariffs (if he goes through with them) are the most stupid thing he has done since he decided he didn't need to look for hidden cameras at the Moscow Hilton. They hurt our allies and not China (much any way) and could start a trade war that could cost American jobs. And besides, we don't need them!
Who do you think countries are buying their steel from?
We get most of our steel from Canada. China is not even one of the top nations we import steel from.
The United States imports most of its steel — 16% — from Canada. It imports 13% from Brazil, 10% from South Korea, 9% from Mexico and 9% from Russia, according to a Department of Commerce report from December 2017.
Also Tariffs could easily have the unintended consequence of causing American manufacturers of having to raise their prices too.
Imported steel and aluminum would become more expensive because of tariffs. And the price of domestic steel and aluminum could also rise because of market forces. That means manufacturers could be forced to raise prices for products built in the United States, like cars and appliances.
And American-made cars, planes and appliances could wind up with far fewer American-made parts. Because domestic parts suppliers depend on imported steel and aluminum, they could be forced to raise prices and lose market share to foreign competitors.
"If you impose tariffs, you might think you're doing a good job saving jobs," said KeyBanc's Gibbs. "But at the end of the day, people will farm out components and products offshore."
Also it will likely backfire and create an unnecessary trade war. Declaring this to be a "National Security" issue is ridiculous as it certainly is a misuse of that law.
If Trump invokes Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, as is recommended, that means he believes steel and aluminum imports hurt the country's national security.
Critics like the Business Roundtable say that justification is a stretch, and could open the door for tit-for-tat responses from other countries in the name of national security.
"Business Roundtable is concerned that acting on the Commerce Department's recommendations to use Section 232 to restrict steel and aluminum imports will result in foreign retaliation against U.S. exporters and harm the U.S. economy," the group said.
All in all, a very stupid idea.
Canada should raise the price of the oil and timber it sends to the USA, to equalize the economic harm Trump's tariff will cause Canada. As well, Canada imports so many products from the USA, so there's an opportunity to impose tariffs that will make Canadian manufacturers happy.
I guess your answer is alright, except it didn't answer my question.
What's behind China's cheap steel exports?
Cheap steel from China has been blamed for distorting global markets and putting other countries' steelmakers under pressure. How have we got here and why does it all matter?
China's steel industry - what's the problem?
Chinese steel production has expanded hugely. Over the past 25 years, output has grown more than 12-fold. By comparison, the EU's output fell by 12% while the US's remained largely flat.
The drive behind that stellar increase has been China's double-digit economic growth over the past decades. That led to ever more domestic demand for steel and the government invested heavily in the industry during the boom years.
But that demand has been severely hit by the current slowdown, leaving China with more steel than it needs. It produced more than 822 million tonnes of steel in 2014 and is expected to produce even more this year, yet projected demand for its steel in 2016 is only 672 million tonnes.
Chinese steel is therefore sold on the international market at extremely low prices - critics say it's sold at a loss. As a consequence, other countries' steel plants find it increasingly hard to compete.
What is China's position?
China dismisses claims that its steel is sold at a loss and says it has done what it can to curb overproduction.
Beijing's official news agency said that blaming the country for the global steel industry's problems was a "lame and lazy excuse for protectionism".
In a commentary piece, Xinhua warned against the imposition of protective import tariffs (a tax on the product which ultimately makes the finished goods more expensive for the consumer).
"Blaming other countries is always an easy, sure-fire way for politicians to whip up a storm over domestic economic woes, but finger-pointing and protectionism are counter-productive," it said.
What is China likely to do?
Very little. While other countries complain that cheaper Chinese steel is forcing their producers out of business, China is itself faced with severe problems in the industry.
The boom of past years means any substantial output cuts would lead to huge job losses, and potential social instability.
It is unlikely that China will cut output by a lot and unless domestic demand picks up, cheap exports will continue to affect global markets.
What options do other countries have?
A simple response would be setting up higher import tariffs. So if a Chinese manufacturer offers a tonne of steel at a cheap price, the importing country charges a tax on top of the original price, which makes it more expensive for the importing company.
That would make Chinese steel more expensive in the importing country and would therefore make domestic producers more competitive again.
Steel-producing countries India, the US and Indonesia have already raised their import tariffs on steel from China.
But for European countries that is a tricky path to embark on as China is a much bigger trading partner. Introducing higher tariffs could risk triggering a trade war of tit-for-tat import tariffs on all kinds of goods.
Does all this matter to me?
Yes. Steel is a vital ingredient to countless producing industries in every country around the globe. That's anything from cars to construction and toys to bottle caps.
So for those industries, cheap steel is good - regardless of whether it's from China or their own domestic producers.
However, if you work in the steel industry in, say, Europe or the US, then of course cheap Chinese steel can drive your company out of business - and you out of a job.
But if you're a steel worker in China, then of course you don't want Beijing to cut production and curb exports. Because while that might save European jobs, it might cost you yours.
Is there a national security question?
Steel is crucial for the defence industry - just think ships, planes or tanks. So there's the question of whether it is wise to shut down domestic production and import all steel.
Even if it is cheaper to do so, there is the question of whether you want to depend entirely on imports when it comes to one of the ingredients you need for national defence.
Any intentional or unintentional cut in supply could quickly leave you in a vulnerable position.
Although I am generally against tariffs, I can somewhat understand why there is a discussion about them and why it is important for us to have a thriving steel industry and not be dependent on potential enemies to provide steel for our defense. It seems most of the European countries have already given up their ability to defend themselves and have tossed their culture in the garbage can as well. I assume these countries, we buy steel from, don't have tariffs placed on the steel we buy from them. I really don't know. I think it would be premature to assume these tariffs would be for all steel imported unless they are cutting their prices so low it drives our steel businesses out of business. Most of these countries including Canada are our allies. Some things you just have to pay the price unless you are willing to be dependent on others who may or may not be your friend during a time of war. The big question would be who will be subject to these tariffs? That's what I don't like about the news. They fail to present the whole picture honestly leaving out some vital information important to have an educated opinion based on the culmination of all the facts involved. By doing that they leave everyone running around defending or renouncing something based on their lack of information.
How much steel does Canada import from China? The answer is about 10% of their production.
And if they produce on the level that they produce, why are they importing steel from anyone?
The logical reason is that China is selling Canada steel for less than it costs Canada to produce it.
That's called dumping.
And Mexico is obviously worse.
There is more than one side to this debate, and it would be good for you to know those variables, rather than engage in the dilettante argument.
NAFTA?
"A Newsweek investigation has found that in at least two of Trump’s last three construction projects, Trump opted to purchase his steel and aluminum from Chinese manufacturers rather than United States corporations"
I agree that China has an over-production of steel and is dumping their steel on the world market at a low price, probably at a price less then their cost and that this is causing a glut of steel. Other countries are buying Chinese steel, but we are not buying very much ourselves and the main reason is that Chinese steel is generally of very poor quality. The answer to who is buying Chinese steel is generally poor countries and on the rise nations who are building up their infrastructure and are not too picky concerning the quality of the steel they buy as opposed to the price vs quantity of it.
Instead of tariffs on importing steel and aluminum, which would mostly hurt our allies and would probably cost many more American jobs then they would create, we should instead go ahead we the much delayed and talked about robust infrastructure plans. We need to make it a real Infrastructure Bill and not just huge tax cuts for private construction companies, building toll roads and private utilities, etc. and hope that they modernize, but rather have it be direct government contracts, paid for by the government (like the highway Bills of the Eisenhower era) and that will only be bid out to companies that guarantee to use American steel and aluminum. The re-bar in the highway and bridge rebuilding alone would re-open a dozen or more steel factories.
No comment?
Crickets?
I mean I did answer the question.
Trump used Chinese steel in all of his buildings... You seriously don't see the hypocrisy here? Wow.
Which is just another reason not to open an office or buy a condo in a Trump built building! Chinese steel is notoriously brittle and prone to cracking under swaying or too much weight pressure. Sure you save a lot of money by using it, but it's like saving a lot of money by using really cheap glass in the windows of your building. Give them some really hard wind gusts and they are going to crack or burst. Well that's fine (if a bit dangerous for those down below) for your windows, but what if those cracks are happening on your support beams? What if your building pancakes like one of the the WTC towers not because of an airplane, but just because of shitty materials? I would not risk my life, nor the life's of my family by living in any building built by Trump and his cheap, shitty, brittle Chinese steel. It's simply not worth the risk.
SIXPICS asked me who was buying all of the Chinese steel that is a cheap glut on the market and I did reply. It's countries like Bangladesh or Indonesia or Vietnam who do not give much of a shit about building codes as they do about he PRICE of the steel! China does not appear on America's top ten of importers of steel simply because their steel is shitty steel! That's why the number one country we buy steel from is Canada. Quality.
Trump was angry and ‘unglued’ when he started a trade war, officials say
by STEPHANIE RUHLE and PETER ALEXANDER
WASHINGTON — With global markets shaken by President Donald Trump's surprise decision to impose strict tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the president went into battle mode on Friday: "Trade wars are good, and easy to win," he wrote on Twitter.
But the public show of confidence belies the fact that Trump's policy maneuver,
which may ultimately harm U.S. companies and American consumers, was announced without any internal review by government lawyers or his own staff, according to a review of an internal White House document.
According to two officials, Trump's decision to launch a potential trade war was born out of anger at other simmering issues and the result of a broken internal process that has failed to deliver him consensus views that represent the best advice of his team.
On Wednesday evening, the president became "unglued," in the words of one official familiar with the president's state of mind.
A trifecta of events had set him off in a way that two officials said they had not seen before: Hope Hicks' testimony to lawmakers investigating Russia's interference in the 2016 election, conduct by his embattled attorney general and the treatment of his son-in-law by his chief of staff .
Trump, the two officials said, was angry and gunning for a fight, and he chose a trade war, spurred on by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro, the White House director for trade.
Ross had already invited steel and aluminum executives to the White House for an 11 a.m. meeting on Thursday. But Ross, according to a person with direct knowledge, hadn't told the White House who the executives were. As a result, White House officials were unable to conduct a background check on the executives to make sure they were appropriate for the president to meet with and they were not able to be cleared for entry by secret service. According to a person with direct knowledge, even White House chief of staff John Kelly was unaware of their names.
By midnight Wednesday, less than 12 hours before the executives were expected to arrive, no one on the president's team had prepared any position paper for an announcement on tariff policy, the official said. In fact, according to the official, the White House counsel's office had advised that they were as much as two weeks away from being able to complete a legal review on steel tariffs.
In response to NBC News, another White House official said that the communications team "was well-prepared to support the president's announcement" and that "many of the attendees had been in the White House before and had already been vetted for attendance at a presidential event." A different official said of the decision, "everyone in the world has known where the president's head was on this issue since the beginning of his administration."
There were no prepared, approved remarks for the president to give at the planned meeting, there was no diplomatic strategy for how to alert foreign trade partners, there was no legislative strategy in place for informing Congress and no agreed upon communications plan beyond an email cobbled together by Ross's team at the Commerce Department late Wednesday that had not been approved by the White House.
No one at the State Department, the Treasury Department or the Defense Department had been told that a new policy was about to be announced or given an opportunity to weigh in in advance.
The Thursday morning meeting did not originally appear on the president's public schedule. Shortly after it began, reporters were told that Ross had convened a "listening" session at the White House with 15 executives from the steel and aluminum industry.
Then, an hour later, in an another unexpected move, reporters were invited to the Cabinet room. Without warning, Trump announced on the spot that he was imposing new strict tariffs on imports.
By Thursday afternoon, the U.S. stock market had fallen and Trump, surrounded by his senior advisers in the Oval Office, was said to be furious.
I can't speak to the "unhinged" accounts. Maybe they happened, perhaps they did not. I'll agree to whatever you like.
In terms of "starting a trade war", that's a rather specious assertion. This was one of Trump's major campaign planks in his platform to get elected President, back during the campaign days. He laid out what his plan was for free, fair trade, and tariffs was one of the items that he laid out. So this is at least 2 years in the making.
When a candidate runs for President, all of the things he or she says are taken into account. Where trade issues are addressed, many countries take note, and they research the possible outcomes of whatever policy the candidate is espousing. They hold conferences and issue white papers on how to address these topics.
It seems to me that these countries, rather than prepare for this, chose not to take it seriously, and are now thrashing about in a manner that will be of detriment to all the parties involved. Trump prepared for this; the other countries did not. It was a game of chicken, and they all apparently blinked.
I doubt if China didn't prepare for this Jonathan. Currently there are numerous tariff restriction against China when it comes to steel. They have plenty of ammo if they feel that they are threatened by this or additional tariffs.
I believe that China is our 2nd biggest market for agriculture products. There is also the possibility that they will slow down on buying treasury bonds. IMO, we are not as strong as some think we are in this type of ''war'' or whatever word one choses.
If this situation escalates, there will be no winner. All will lose in one form or another.
Your post indicates that there's not much we can do to China to affect them. By your logic, they will be further emboldened to cheat, steal and hack us until the cows come home, and there's not a damn thing we can do.
Well, I can tell you that there are things we CAN do. The threat of a tariff is just that; it's a threat. If countries that are allied with us wish to push back into a trade war, I think that's 2 wrongs. And we all know about what 2 wrongs make.
On the other hand, there is obvious unfairness in trade with China, particularly in the steel trade, and Canada/Mexico are complicit. Canada exports about 15% of their steel to us, in various forms. They are a large producer. But they import about 10% of their total store from China. And China sells this steel to Canada for less than it costs Canada to produce their own.
Krish, that's the definition of dumping. At it's far worse in Mexico. If NAFTA is to even be addressed, this has precede all allegedly friendly negotiations.
Free AND fair.
I agree Kavika. Let's not forget that China was giddy to step up when the US bowed out of the Asia pact. They quickly took the lead and I believe by obfuscating our role we have lost some of our leverage.
No Jonathan, that is not what my post indicates. What it indicates is that China is not without weapons to fight back. If this goes to an all out trade war, both China and the U.S. will be hurt, as will many of our allies.
The last trade war didn't go so well for the U.S. Check out the effects of Smoot Hartley.
A right wing Trump supporter?
Also what I find strange is the reasoning that Trump said he would impose the tariffs...''National Security''....I could see that if he singled out China, but he didn't. All of our allies are part of the tariff ''war''.....
Smoot-Hawley (or, "Hoot-Smalley" as the Snowbilly from Wasilla called it). There was a Taft-Hartley anti-union law of 1947. I read an analysis of that bill earlier today and there's a strong connection of that bill to the severity of the Great Depression. Although the law was enacted after the official start of the depression, it had been introduced and debated in Congress well before and the timing of the probability of its becoming law coincided neatly with the beginning of the downturn. It was almost instantly repealed on Roosevelt's becoming president but the damage to the world economy was already well along by then.
So he has been seeking a trade war for at least 2 years?
"Talking" to LR yesterday and he claimed that Trump was approaching the lofty standards of the most perfect conservative POTUS ever
Calvin Coolidge.........
to which I responded with this college course outline;
Wow dejavu.........
In response to many things trump has said, China increased trade with North Korea by 40% since trump took office, (his own words). One of the reasons Chinese steel is so popular in the USA is because of trump...almost every building he is/was behind used Chinese steel.
.
Lets be honest here. Trump touts being, "America First", but this is coming from a guy that literally farms out EVERYTHING to other countries. He uses almost literally nothing from the USA. It's late, I am tired, go look it up... I will give you the short list..
Intel for his campaign was from a UK company
Steel for his buildings was from China
His loans for golf courses was from Russia
Hell, even his wives are all foreign born....and he has cheated on all of them...
Donny applies for just over 1200 work visa's a year...(which means he employs those 'icky' illegals he claims to hate) .
His own wife is an illegal immigrant. She had a visa to come to the USA. It was specific in that she could NOT have a job, or earn money. She DID earn money through modeling...which violated her visa... In other words...she is a criminal illegal alien invader.
.
Trump says, "America First", and most people ask, "which America is he talking about"?
Marla Maples was born in the US. But, yeah, the rest of it.
And he is using what he insultingly calls "Chain migration" to get citizenship for her parents and the rest of her family, before he shuts it down for everyone else, in a stunningly brazen, but not surprising act of blatant hypocrisy! The man is a pig!
And I hereby apologize to any pigs reading this message for that slander to you.
Of course, with anything that the Mar-a-Lago Shitbag stomps around on, this moronic tariff idea as solution could have been avoided. But, he had to actually make the situation with China worse in order to create a veneer of justification for an even worse way to deal with it. I'll let Forbes explain it:
Manuchin is talking about the U.S. rejoining the TPP and it's about the only smart thing I have ever heard from him or this Administration. ALL of the candidates were wrong to run against it as it was the only way we have had and will have as an answer to China's growing influence in Trade and other strengths in Southeast Asia. Rejoining it is a no-brainer, so even Trump should be smart enough to do it!
That is what I was saying, pulling out basically just meant that China and Japan would determine the trade situation in Asia, we took ourselves out of the conversation.
Absolutely. Being a part of the TPP makes us trading partners with all of the emerging nations in South East Asia like Vietnam and Indonesia and gives both them and us power against the influence of China. Pulling out just hands that whole region's influence and trade over to China and that will spread as far as Australia and India. If we rejoin, then that influence and commerce becomes American again. I know that all of the candidates, including the one I voted for, ran against the TPP, but that doesn't mean they weren't all wrong on it.
All I can say is thanks for losing me a few grand and making my beer more expensive you fuckin dick Trump.
Yeah, I just got the statement for my retirement accounts. Glad I'm not retiring soon. I took a pretty good hit.
There will be consequences.
No more hockey greats will be allowed to play for American teams - forget about players that are like Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Hull, Gordie Howe, Mark Messier, Bobby Orr, Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, being seen in the USA. You want good hockey players? Go to Russia for them.
Tariffs will increase on Quebec Maple Syrup,- butter tarts, poutine and Nanaimo bars will no longer be sold to Americans.
You like Canadian Beer? The price will be increased considerably.
No Stevie Yzerman........it's like thinking about death......
I shouldn't have left him off the list.
I have his official, Red, team home Jersey. I won it on a bet from Mike L when Obama was re-elected. It has his name, number and the "C" for Captain on it. It's in triple XL so I can wear it over anything and it is one of my most prized possessions. I rarely take it out to wear and I am disgustingly proud of it. I mean sickeningly proud of it. I strut when I wear it like I am Stevie Y! I almost embarrass myself! But what the hell, I am a true Red Wings fan from the time I was born until the time I die and those were some real glory years.
The Red Wings had some fantastic players, like Gordie Howe for example. The only hockey memorabilia I got was something I found in the garage of a home we bought around 1977 - it was a hockey stick that had been signed by the members of the Leafs team from their Stanley Cup days - Tim Horton, Johnny Bower, Ron Ellis, George Armstrong, Frank Mahovlich, Murray Oliver, Norm Ullman, Paul Henderson, Marcel Pronovost, and Davie Keon. My son has it now.
A prized possession to be sure. What I wouldn't give for one signed by Yzerman and maybe all of the Russian Five, before the terrible accident that took Vladimir Konstantinov out of Hockey. He was, well just indescribable as a player. A true international master of the game. I remember sports announcers saying that he was the Michael Jordon of hockey, but the were really, really really wrong. Michael Jordon was the Vladimir Konstantinov of basketball.
They all fled the NHL in the last 2 years so they could play in the Olympics.
Many were identified during the Olympics as coming back to the NHL as their KHL contracts expire.
Want a friendly bet?
Bush tried this in 2002 and by 2003 backed off due to the negative consequences.
Trump should be old enough to remember WWII and our allies but apparently he grew up in some place devoid of history and international relations.
This tariff proposal only hurts our long term allies and trading partners, not China.
IF Trump goes through with it ( which the brief past history tells us he will ) he (we/USA) will be forced to rescind it in less than a year.
I won't take that bet. I agree he'll back off. He has too. There was a Stock Market guy on MSNBC today who said that this tariff would wipe out 45 other jobs for every steel and aluminum job it would create and I don't think he was exaggerating by much. I know that as a dyed in the wool liberal I am not supposed to be a free trade person, but the world has changed and tariffs are the wrong way to go in the globalist economy, especially with the rise of China, so even Democrats have changed our views on tariffs and rightly so.
Bush was shot down by the WTO.
Trump is trying to claim National security which will give the WTO some food for thought.
But it violates NAFTA and it will still end up in a court battle which hurts both our economy and status as a world leader,
if we have any status left..........
Trump will be shot down but not by the WTO, but rather by the GOP and the Democrats. This idea sucks for both parties and no reputable economist will say it's a good idea to start a trade war now or anytime in the near future. Globalist economics are just too tied together for one to work for anyone! The average American automobile chassis moves back and forth from Detroit to Windsor 7 times for parts and construction during the manufacturing process. That means the steel in it will be taxed ever time for 7 times that it comes back from Canada! That will add a fortune to the price of an "American" car! Americans won't be able to afford products that we build under NAFTA with Canada and Mexico and that will cost 10's of thousands, if not 100's of thousands of AMERICAN jobs! And for what? To add maybe 3 or 4 thousand jobs in steel production?
Smart economists don't want this and Trump says a trade war is "good and easy to win" and when you that a serious look at his business record he is and always has been one really shitty businessman! But the trouble is that this time he is not fucking around with his daddy's money (which he lost) or an American bank's money (which he lost one bankruptcy after another) or a Russian bank's or oligarchs money (which we don't know how much or to who he owes), he is fucking around with OUR money! And we can not afford to have this completely shitty businessman go bankrupt with the bank of the Treasury and Credit of the United States of America and that is what he is doing! Doing right now! He must be stopped before we become the next Greece and we are a lot closer to that then most people are willing to see!!!
Did I just see that he's going to raise taxes on or do some other limiting action on German cars?
He made some stupid retort to the EU about seeing nothing but Mercedes in NYC traffic
while never seeing a Chevrolet in Europe.
In reality NYC Yellow cabs which were mostly Toyota's are being phased out and being replaced by 14,000 Nissan vans.
There are also now more Uber cabs in NYC than Yellow cabs.
I am fairly certain that the only reason Trump knows what a Chevrolet looks like,
is because NYC has the largest fleet of police cars in the world, most of them late model Chevrolets.
I remember when they were all Checkers made in Kalamazoo. Great cars for personal use and you could rack up a couple of hundred miles on them, though they were not very pretty and had very few interior options. A very solid, but extremely basic car.
Heck, none of us, including the other countries, know what is going on in Trump's head. He may be doing this just to help win the election in Pennsylvania 18th District Special Election, then drop it like a hot potato right after the election. I don't know anyone who can tell me exactly what these tariffs entail, what or how much will it be, or is it on everyone, a chosen few or just one, such as China? Is it a bluff? None of us as far as I know have any idea. If you can or know someone who can give us the answers to these questions, please provide them.
Personally I think it is more of a bluff than anything else. There's something behind this that is not being revealed at this time, but that doesn't stop the hysteria.
I generally don't support tariffs as I said in an earlier statement. Tariffs are concrete and can be stopped just as easily as they are started.
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Remember these? I didn't think so. LOL I'm sure some of you remember them, but it's tough when all the bad is reported on one person and all the good is ignored, while all the good was reported on the other one and all the bad was ignored. You're time is gonna come.
As "everyone" like our allies, UK, Canada, Mexico, Brazil and the European Union ?
They are already announcing retaliation taxes //tariffs.
Not a word from China.........yet.
But Trump hasn't signed anything yet and Mnuchin has signaled that maybe we shouldn't have pulled out of the PTP after all.
As Obama stated - it's better to have a seat at the table rather than hand off all of the Asian trade policies to China and Japan.
Maybe Trump just needs to keep everything and everyone is crisis mode until we stop caring.
Our allies and others are establishing their list of products they plan on countering the US with should the US go forward with a trade war. I don't think the farming community is going to be a winner in this war.
In addition, China only exports about 2% of steel to the US so they will not be too put out with the steel tariff.
Let's educate ourselves rather than rely on those making these decisions to provide a full picture of the pros and cons.
Add one more task to the list of mistakes for the next administration to undo.
They announced today that it will not go unpunished.
They are claiming it will not hurt them but will turn the global market upside down
and play havoc with the stock markets.
Honestly I see China using this more as a propaganda tool than anything else. As a way to further undercut American leadership and especially to further minimize our influence in Asia.
MNuchin apparently now wants to rejoin PTP, "so we at least have seat at the table".
Cohn reportedly threatened to resign if tariffs go in place.
What a soap opera......
Trump talked tariffs Friday morning and both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed up. The Dow was down but only 70 points .29 percentage. Not a big deal at all.
What is it, about 1/2 trillion dollar trade deficit in this country. What are we going to do, just live with it. I like the game. I'm tired of having a boring bully push me around. I'm not in favor of trade tariffs, but I enough playing the game.
Yes! But a trade deficit with who and how do we address it? With a massive tariff that hurts our allies and inspires a trade war with them much more then it affects those that we are shooting at? That is just plain stupid! This tariff, instead of being smart and targeted, hurts or allies and will cause a backlash from those who are are on our side, rather then those we have the big deficits with! This will hurt us and our friends massively more the our enemies and he is doing it only, ONLY because he is angry. Angry like a spoiled little brat of a child. Please, I beg you. Don't let him get away with it.
Besides this tariff has nothing to do with Trade. It is all about Mueller getting closer to Trump's inner circle and him wanting to create an international distraction to take everyone's eye of the fact that he is near being indicted himself! This is nothing more then his most latest and most desperate shinny ball to toss out for the media and American to chase. As soon as Jared is indicted the expected that asshole to send troops against North Korea as a distraction, because even if it means 10's of thousands of Americans and South Koreans will die, Trump WILL get his distraction. It really is, sickeningly enough, that important to him.
Trump talks tariffs today and lots of news reported on this issue over the weekend and the three major indexes Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed up today.
Dow rallies after Trump formalizes tariffs. Dow over 25000 up over 280 points today as of the time this comment was posted.