With New Hot Spots Emerging, No Sign of a Respite - The New York Times

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  perrie-halpern  •  5 months ago  •  148 comments

By:   Julie Bosman, Mitch Smith and Amy Harmon

With New Hot Spots Emerging, No Sign of a Respite - The New York Times
While cities like New York have seen a hopeful drop in cases, upticks in other major cities and smaller communities have offset those decreases.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



While cities like New York have seen a hopeful drop in cases, upticks in other major cities and smaller communities have offset those decreases.

merlin_172181223_1696a681-6e53-422b-bbf3 A neighborhood in New York City, which has seen a drop in new cases of the coronavirus.Credit...Brittainy Newman/The New York Timesauthor-julie-bosman-thumbLarge.pngauthor-mitch-smith-thumbLarge.pngauthor-amy-harmon-thumbLarge-v2.png

By Julie Bosman, Mitch Smith and Amy Harmon

  • Published May 5, 2020Updated May 6, 2020, 8:55 a.m. ET

In New York City, the daily onslaught of death from the coronavirus has dropped to half of what it was. In Chicago, a makeshift hospital in a lakefront convention center is closing, deemed no longer needed. And in New Orleans, new cases have dwindled to a handful each day.

Yet across America, those signs of progress obscure a darker reality.

The country is still in the firm grip of a pandemic with little hope of release. For every indication of improvement in controlling the virus, new outbreaks have emerged elsewhere, leaving the nation stuck in a steady, unrelenting march of deaths and infections.

As states continue to lift restrictions meant to stop the virus, impatient Americans are freely returning to shopping, lingering in restaurants and gathering in parks. Regular new flare-ups and super-spreader events are expected to be close behind.

Any notion that the coronavirus threat is fading away appears to be magical thinking, at odds with what the latest numbers show.

Coronavirus in America now looks like this: More than a month has passed since there was a day with fewer than 1,000 deaths from the virus. Almost every day, at least 25,000 new coronavirus cases are identified, meaning that the total in the United States — which has the highest number of known cases in the world with more than a million — is expanding by between 2 and 4 percent daily.

Rural towns that one month ago were unscathed are suddenly hot spots for the virus. It is rampaging through nursing homes, meatpacking plants and prisons, killing the medically vulnerable and the poor, and new outbreaks keep emerging in grocery stores, Walmarts or factories, an ominous harbinger of what a full reopening of the economy will bring.

While dozens of rural counties have no known coronavirus cases, a panoramic view of the country reveals a grim and distressing picture.

New Reported Cases by Day


As the New York metro area has seen a recent decline in new cases, the number of cases in the rest of the United States has steadily increased.


New York metro area Rest of the United States Source: New York Times database of reports from state and local health agencies and hospitals.·The New York City metropolitan area is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau and includes nearby cities and suburbs in Westchester, Long Island and northern New Jersey.

"If you include New York, it looks like a plateau moving down," said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. "If you exclude New York, it's a plateau slowly moving up."

In early April, more than 5,000 new cases were regularly being added in New York City on a daily basis. Those numbers have dropped significantly over the past few weeks, but that progress has been largely offset by increases in other major cities.

Consider Chicago and Los Angeles, which have flattened their curves and avoided the explosive growth of New York City. Even so, coronavirus cases in their counties have more than doubled since April 18. Cook County, home to Chicago, is now sometimes adding more than 2,000 new cases in a day, and Los Angeles County has often been adding at least 1,000.

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Dallas County in Texas has been adding about 100 more cases a day than it was a month ago, and the counties that include Boston and Indianapolis have also reported higher numbers.

It is not just the major cities. Smaller towns and rural counties in the Midwest and South have suddenly been hit hard, underscoring the capriciousness of the pandemic.

Dakota County, Neb., which has the third-most cases per capita in the country, had no known cases as recently as April 11. Now the county is a hot zone for the virus.

Dakota City is home to a major Tyson beef-processing plant, where cases have been reported. And the region, which spreads across the borders of both Iowa and South Dakota, is dotted with meat-processing plants that have been a major source of work for generations. The pattern has repeated all over: Federal authorities say that at least 4,900 meat and poultry processing workers have been infected across 19 states.

The Tyson plant in Dakota City has temporarily closed for deep cleaning. Now the workers wait, afraid to go back to work but fearful not to.

"They need money and they want to go back of course," said Qudsia Hussein, whose husband is an imam helping counsel the families of workers who have been sickened or have died. With many businesses shuttered or suffering financially because of the pandemic, she said, "There's no other place they can work."

Trousdale County, Tenn., another rural area, suddenly finds itself with the nation's highest per capita infection rate by far. A prison appears responsible for a huge spike in cases; in 10 days, this county of about 11,000 residents saw its known cases skyrocket to 1,344 from 27.

As of last week, more than half of the inmates and staff members tested at Trousdale Turner Correctional Center in Hartsville, Tenn., were positive for the virus, officials said.

"It's been my worst nightmare since the beginning of this that this would happen," said Dwight Jewell, chairman of the Trousdale County Commission. "I've been expecting this. You put that many people in a contained environment and all it takes is one."

Everyone in town knows about the outbreak. But they are defiant: Businesses in the county are reopening this week. On Monday evening, county commissioners held an in-person meeting, with chairs spaced six feet apart. They have a budget to pass and other issues facing the county, Mr. Jewell said.

"We've got to get back to the business of the community," he said.

Infectious-disease experts are troubled by perceptions that the United States has seen the worst of the virus, and have sought to caution against misplaced optimism.

"I don't see why we expect large declines in daily case counts over the next month," Trevor Bedford, a scientist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center who has studied the spread and evolution of the virus, wrote on Twitter. He added, "There may well be cities / counties that achieve suppression locally, but nationally I expect things to be messy with flare-ups in various geographies followed by responses to these flare-ups."

The outbreak in the United States has already killed more than 70,000 people, and epidemiologists say the nation will not see fewer than 5,000 coronavirus-related deaths a week until after June 20, according to a survey conducted by researchers at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. A federal projection, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecasts a steady rise in deaths in the next several weeks, to a daily death toll of 3,000 on June 1.

Across the country, scientists tried to project the virus's future course, and the results have been a range of shifting models. An aggregate of several models assembled by Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at the University of Massachusetts, predicts there will be an average of 10,000 deaths per week for the next few weeks. That is fewer than in previous weeks, but it does not mean a peak has been passed, Dr. Reich said. In the seven-day period that ended on Sunday, about 12,700 deaths tied to the virus occurred across the country.

"There's this idea that it's going to go up and it's going to come down in a symmetric curve," Dr. Reich said. "It doesn't have to do that. It could go up and we could have several thousand deaths per week for many weeks."

The deaths have hit few places harder than America's nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. More than a quarter of the deaths have been linked to those facilities, and more than 118,000 residents and staff members in at least 6,800 homes have contracted the virus.

There is no escaping some basic epidemic math.

In the absence of a vaccine, stopping the spread of the virus requires about two-thirds of the population to have been infected. And some experts have argued that before what is known as herd immunity kicks in, the number of people infected nationwide could reach a staggering 90 percent if social distancing is relaxed and transmission rates climb. (It is also not clear how long immunity will last among those who have been infected.)

As testing capacity has increased, so has the number of cases being counted. But many jurisdictions are still missing cases and undercounting deaths. Many epidemiologists assume that roughly 10 times as many people have been infected with the coronavirus than the number of known cases.

Because of the time it will take for infections to spread, incubate and cause people to die, the effects of reopening states may not be known until at least six weeks after the fact. One model used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention includes an assumption that the infection rate will increase up to 20 percent in states that reopen.

Under that model, by early August, the most likely outcome is 3,000 more deaths in Georgia than the state has right now, 10,000 more each in New York and New Jersey, and around 7,000 more each in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Massachusetts. Under the model's most likely forecast, the nation will see about 100,000 additional deaths by Aug. 4.

"Even if we're past the first peak, that doesn't mean the worst is behind us," said Youyang Gu, the data scientist who created the model. "It goes up quickly but it's a slow decline down."

Reporting was contributed by John Eligon, Robert Gebeloff, Danielle Ivory, Dionne Searcey, Timothy Williams and Karen Yourish.


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Perrie Halpern R.A.
1  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.    5 months ago

This is not a political article. Any comment that is political will be deleted.

Some takeaways:

As states open up, it will take 2 weeks to find out if they are doing so safely or if they start to spike. Of course, everyone is hoping not to see a spike, but the numbers so far, don't look good. 

From Governor Cuomo:

The importance of using facemasks and social distancing. The new cases that have come into the New York hospital system came from people who did not use facemasks or social distance.  

 
 
 
XDm9mm
1.1  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @1    5 months ago
The new cases that have come into the New York hospital system came from people who did not use facemasks or social distance.

And exactly how did Andy boy determine that?   Did he have his mask police watching every person who came in?   

 
 
 
SteevieGee
1.1.1  SteevieGee  replied to  XDm9mm @1.1    4 months ago

Maybe he just asked them.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
1.2  Ozzwald  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @1    5 months ago
As states open up, it will take 2 weeks to find out if they are doing so safely or if they start to spike. Of course, everyone is hoping not to see a spike, but the numbers so far, don't look good. 

The numbers are also very deceptive.  Without adequate testing, there is no way to determine if the easing of stay-at-home orders is causing numbers to increase.  Testing needs to become available and wide-spread before this country can return to normal.

  • All patients in every hospital in the country need to be tested immediately,
  • Every healthcare worker in this country, needs to be tested immediately and often.
  • Every person in this country that is showing any signs related to the corona virus, needs to be tested.

THEN we can get a handle on things and start looking towards returning to normal.

 
 
 
cjcold
1.3  cjcold  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @1    5 months ago

Unfortunately, everything is political these days.

 
 
 
sandy-2021492
2  sandy-2021492    5 months ago

Apparently, there are now outbreaks in some of our local nursing homes and poultry processing plants.  This is from the grapevine, but the employees there were not social distancing in their off-work hours - they'd carpool to work, and go to each other's houses for dinner and so forth.  So they've carried the virus to the nursing home residents, and into plants where social distancing just isn't possible.

I've gotta say, as a business owner, it's pretty damned frustrating, because the longer our numbers of new cases keep going up, the longer it is before I'm comfortable opening, or my patients are comfortable coming in for care.  Their selfishness is not only risking lives, it's risking livelihoods.

The date for Virginia to reopen nonessential businesses keeps getting pushed back, because every time we think we're on the downhill side of this thing, another nursing home or poultry processing plant makes headlines.

 
 
 
Krishna
2.1  Krishna  replied to  sandy-2021492 @2    5 months ago
Apparently, there are now outbreaks in some of our local nursing homes and poultry processing plants. 

At first many pundits were saying that the Virus was only really hitting major population centers-- areas that were dense,y populated. And that there were few if any cases in more rural cases. So they probably wouldn't get it.

Which was true-- at first. But it seemed obvious to me that that didn't mean only urban areas would get it. Rather, that the spread there would  obviously happen more slowly.

And with news cases finally beginning to decline in more urban areas...new cases are finally on the rise in rural areas.

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
3  Freedom Warrior    5 months ago

Of course you are all going to be infected.  Told you all that a month ago.  And many won't even realize it and the vast majority are going to recover just fine.

Accept your fate and reopen the economy for the low risk segments of the population.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
3.1  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Freedom Warrior @3    5 months ago

You are not a doctor. Until they come up with an antibody test that everyone can take, there is no way to even prove that statement. 

So I will believe what the experts say and what is obviously proof. 

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
3.1.1  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @3.1    5 months ago

That's is horribly uninformed nonsense. I am among the few here analyzing the data and science and reaching the informed conclusions based on expert input.

We don't need what you are offering because it has been consistently wrong.  Exactly the opposite.

That is absolutely infuriating knowing the damage opinions like your like yours are inflicting upon the powerless.

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
3.1.2  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Freedom Warrior @3.1.1    5 months ago

Wow.... Lets dissect this post shall we...?

 "I am among the few here analyzing the data and science ..."

Hmmmmmm..... But you never see fit to post any of it here.... Of your eight seeds, four of them have nothing to do with data and science:

https://thenewstalkers.com/perrie-halpern/group_discuss/6576/moderation-bias

https://thenewstalkers.com/community/discussion/45829/the-most-honest-democrat-commercial-on-the-internet

https://thenewstalkers.com/community/discussion/46621/jon-miller-shreds-the-slavery-reparations-argument-i-white-house-brief

https://thenewstalkers.com/community/discussion/50027/daddy-daughter-duet-the-prayer

Hell, I even checked your comments for anything "data" related...... Naaaaaaaa Daaaaaaaaaa!

So just where in the hell are you "reaching the informed conclusions based on expert input."   from?

"We don't need what you are offering because it has been consistently wrong.  Exactly the opposite.
That is absolutely infuriating knowing the damage opinions like your like yours are inflicting upon the powerless."

Based on your pitiful record related to facts and data both here, and on Newsvine (thought that we didn't remember you from there did ya..?) you wouldn't recognize viable science and data if it stood up and bit you on the ass!  Why don't you take you little circus show back over to Breitbart where your level of analysis fits.

I expect to get a couple of day off for this post, but face facts..... Perrie has forgotten more actual science and data then you will ever know.

Perrie..... I take personal issue with people taking shots at you even if they are blanks! 

 
 
 
Tessylo
3.1.3  Tessylo  replied to  Freedom Warrior @3.1.1    5 months ago
'That's is horribly uninformed nonsense.'

No, that is what comes out of this 'president' and his administration.  

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3.2  Ozzwald  replied to  Freedom Warrior @3    5 months ago
Accept your fate and reopen the economy for the low risk segments of the population.

In other words, sacrifice your life and possibly your loved ones, so the wealthy don't have to watch their stocks drop.

 
 
 
gooseisgone
3.2.1  gooseisgone  replied to  Ozzwald @3.2    5 months ago
In other words, sacrifice your life and possibly your loved ones, so the wealthy don't have to watch their stocks drop.

That is a truly funny comment, the wealthy have money and can survive. The middle class who lives paycheck to paycheck can't, $1200 or $2400 from the government isn't going to cut it, don't you understand that.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3.2.2  Ozzwald  replied to  gooseisgone @3.2.1    5 months ago
That is a truly funny comment, the wealthy have money and can survive.

Yet many feel they never have enough and don't care what they have to do to get more.

The middle class who lives paycheck to paycheck can't, $1200 or $2400 from the government isn't going to cut it, don't you understand that.

Which is more important, going to work, or living?

 
 
 
gooseisgone
3.2.3  gooseisgone  replied to  Ozzwald @3.2.2    5 months ago
Which is more important, going to work, or living?

If working provides food for your family, I guess you prefer they starve.  

 
 
 
ThereAreFourLights
3.2.4  ThereAreFourLights  replied to  Ozzwald @3.2.2    5 months ago

In regard to the wealthy, what they get or not is a bit irrelevant to many and personally speaking, I have more pressing concerns.
Not everyone owns their own home where they can hibernate indefinitely and 'living' in society generally carries a responsibility to provide for oneself. Living is preferable in most cases but survivability may not be independent of being able to work. 

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3.2.5  Ozzwald  replied to  gooseisgone @3.2.3    5 months ago
If working provides food for your family, I guess you prefer they starve.

And how do you provide this money when dead????

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3.2.6  Ozzwald  replied to  ThereAreFourLights @3.2.4    5 months ago
'living' in society generally carries a responsibility to provide for oneself.

Can you get any more wrong?  Living in a society means you have responsibility towards that society and not just for yourself.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
3.2.7  XDm9mm  replied to  Ozzwald @3.2.6    5 months ago
Living in a society means you have responsibility towards that society and not just for yourself.

I guess you never heard of survival of the fittest.    I support "society", but if push comes to shove and it's a choice between your life or the life of one of my family...  YOU LOSE.

 
 
 
Texan1211
3.2.8  Texan1211  replied to  Ozzwald @3.2.6    5 months ago
Can you get any more wrong?  Living in a society means you have responsibility towards that society and not just for yourself.

So you don't think people have a responsibility to provide for themselves?

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3.2.9  Ozzwald  replied to  XDm9mm @3.2.7    5 months ago
I guess you never heard of survival of the fittest.

I guess you don't live in a society.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3.2.10  Ozzwald  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.8    5 months ago

So you don't think people have a responsibility to provide for themselves?

Why do you continually state lies about what I say???  Are you going to back up this claim, or are you going to run away again?  Go ahead and provide a quote of mine that backs up your claim, or retract it.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
3.2.11  XDm9mm  replied to  Ozzwald @3.2.9    5 months ago
I guess you don't live in a society.

Most certainly do, and I will reiterate just for you:

I support "society", but if push comes to shove and it's a choice between your life or the life of one of my family...  YOU LOSE.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3.2.12  Ozzwald  replied to  XDm9mm @3.2.11    5 months ago
I support "society", but

Where is the "but" here?

but if push comes to shove and it's a choice between your life or the life of one of my family...  YOU LOSE.

But you are willing to risk the life of your family for the all mighty dollar??  You're claims are contradicting each other,

 
 
 
Tessylo
3.2.13  Tessylo  replied to  Ozzwald @3.2.12    5 months ago

tRump values money over life.  His supporters seem to do the same.  

 
 
 
MUVA
3.2.14  MUVA  replied to  Ozzwald @3.2.12    5 months ago

I can answer I’m willing to risk as much as when I drive as much as every flu season, as much as every time I fly in a air plane. I’m not willing to risk everything I worked for my whole life because someone may die if the was the criteria I would stay home all the time.

 
 
 
MUVA
3.2.15  MUVA  replied to  Tessylo @3.2.13    5 months ago

I value my family’s well being more that I value leftist hyperbole and virtue signaling.

 
 
 
Tessylo
3.2.16  Tessylo  replied to  MUVA @3.2.15    5 months ago

[Deleted] Plus those things have nothing to do with this.  

 
 
 
ThereAreFourLights
3.2.17  ThereAreFourLights  replied to  Ozzwald @3.2.6    5 months ago

Part of my sense of contributing to the neighborhood is if I'm not serving actively, I am contributing passively by taking care of my own burdens so the community/society doesn't have to. It can focus that tiny bit more on those that are less capable of contributing. Telling me to disconnect for the greater good at my own peril with a high risk of slipping into a catastrophic financial deathspiral that will make me a burden or a statistic is an irresponsible request outside of something extremely temporarily. So no, I don't feel I'm wrong. Work and Living were presented in a way that seemed to be at odds of each other or 'one can't work if you're dead' but I just don't understand how one can live indefinitely without generating something to barter with or 'the mighty dollar'. Seems counter productive to both me and my community (or society, apologies if that was too broad a term to apply here).

 
 
 
Krishna
3.3  Krishna  replied to  Freedom Warrior @3    5 months ago
And many won't even realize it and the vast majority are going to recover just fine.

But what about the minority...those that spend miserable days struggling with the virus..only to die?

Have you no compassion for your fellow human beings?

 
 
 
cjcold
3.3.1  cjcold  replied to  Krishna @3.3    5 months ago
Have you no compassion for your fellow human beings?

Far right wingers only have compassion for Trump these days.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
4  Sean Treacy    5 months ago

There are signs of a respite.  The daily new cases have been about 25,000 and are down from the high of about 40,000 on April 24 and a consistent streak of 30,000+ a day in April.  Other hotspots will probably develop, but they are unlikely to be as bad as what hit NY, which had the perfect storm of population density, a reliance on public transportation and no social distancing with the virus running rampant in early to mid March. Other urban areas will have outbreaks, but it's to hard to see how they can reach the scale of Ny, given that social distancing is still taking place even in those areas that are "open."  

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
4.1  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Sean Treacy @4    5 months ago

Sean,

The curve speaks for itself. That is the rest of the country not including NYS has been on a steady incline. Now that the states are beginning to open up, we will know the true numbers in 2 weeks (the average incubation period). There will be no arguing the facts then. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.1  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @4.1    5 months ago
Now that the states are beginning to open up, we will know the true numbers in 2 weeks (the average incubation period). There will be no arguing the facts then. 

Actually, you'll be comparing apples to oranges.

Any new numbers that will be reported will be representations of new testing happening as opposed to no testing previously.  Previously, until someone showed symptoms there was no way to know if they were in fact infected by asymptomatic.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.1.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @4.1    5 months ago

Could it be that some states may see their case counts rise, not necessarily because their outbreaks are getting dramatically worse, but because their testing is getting better, so they're catching more cases?

 
 
 
r.t..b...
4.1.3  r.t..b...  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.1.2    5 months ago
Could it be that some states may see their case counts rise, not necessarily because their outbreaks are getting dramatically worse, but because their testing is getting better

Could it then be argued we have been woefully inadequate in testing from day one? Relying on China while blaming them? Throwing the responsibility on states while allowing them to reopen when federal guidelines are ignored? Pushing forward without a cohesive plan in the event of a second wave? Too many questions with very few answers.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
4.1.4  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  r.t..b... @4.1.3    5 months ago

You are 100% correct rtb. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.1.5  Vic Eldred  replied to  r.t..b... @4.1.3    5 months ago
Could it then be argued we have been woefully inadequate in testing from day one?

Without a doubt, then again, what were we going to test with?  We started day 1 with ZERO!


Relying on China while blaming them? 

China hid then lied about the virus. China allowed it's people to fly to & infect other parts of the world. China cornered the market on medical supplies, before they told anyone what was happening. China is a dangerous enemy to the entire world.


Throwing the responsibility on states while allowing them to reopen when federal guidelines are ignored? 

Guidelines are not laws, thus the tongue lashing the Gov of Georgia got.


Pushing forward without a cohesive plan in the event of a second wave?

The nation under a 50 day lockdown hardly constitutes "pushing ahead!"


Too many questions with very few answers.

Thus it's easy to second guess. One thing we can say - We did everything thus far according to the health "experts." It's time now for the economic experts!

This is after all a two headed monster!

 
 
 
r.t..b...
4.1.6  r.t..b...  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.1.5    5 months ago
This is after all a two headed monster!

Add a third head, the one driving the beast...re-election at any cost.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.1.7  Vic Eldred  replied to  r.t..b... @4.1.6    5 months ago

I'd love to get into that with you, but the provision in Post # 1 prohibits a political discussion.

 
 
 
r.t..b...
4.1.8  r.t..b...  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.1.7    5 months ago
but the provision in Post # 1 prohibits a political discussion.

Fair enough, apologies for the violation, Perrie.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
4.1.9  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  r.t..b... @4.1.8    5 months ago

No problem guys. As long as you all stopped. 

 
 
 
Colour Me Free
4.1.10  Colour Me Free  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.1.5    5 months ago
China is a dangerous enemy to the entire world.

Hi Vic ...

I have been screaming as loud as I can for quite some time over this very subject  .. Russia is not the #1 foe, Putin is a girl scout .. his power is pale in comparison to Xi Jinping ..  .. the demand for cheap labor.. disposable products made of plastic has made China KING, even with human rights violations off the chain. ---  the US sleeps with China every night!

We the people made them the power they are today, we DEMAND the crap they produce - "it's cheap, no need to fix it .. throw it away and buy a new one" …………... time to cut the ties..

Soap Box is now safely back in her stall - she has not been out for a run in quite sometime ...

Peace!

P.s... China even controls the rare earth minerals needed for the US defense systems … we have plenty here at home .. but it is too expensive to mine - soooo let China have control - what harm could it cause???

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.1.11  Vic Eldred  replied to  Colour Me Free @4.1.10    5 months ago

Well said. We are going to have a lot to do at some point in addressing China and protecting ourselves. This crisis is the big wake up call. Hopefully our elected representatives and our allies will act!

 
 
 
Colour Me Free
4.1.12  Colour Me Free  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.1.11    5 months ago

It will take the US breaking the chain for the world to follow … if I could bring politics into the subject I would .. alas I must end my thought there..

I search .. and search ... and search some more for American made products ..  next I look for the  'parts made in the US assembled in Mexico'..label.... 

 
 
 
Krishna
4.1.13  Krishna  replied to  Colour Me Free @4.1.10    5 months ago
I have been screaming as loud as I can for quite some time over this very subject  .. Russia is not the #1 foe, Putin is a girl scout .. his power is pale in comparison to Xi Jinping ..  .. the demand for cheap labor.. disposable products made of plastic has made China KING, even with human rights violations off the chain. ---  the US sleeps with China every night!

Correct. 

And its not just "ordinary folk"...its even worse with the "wealthy and powerful":

Ivanka Trump gets initial approval from China for 16 new trademarks —including for ‘voting machines’

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.1.14  Vic Eldred  replied to  Colour Me Free @4.1.12    5 months ago

There are a lot of lessons to be learned from this. I have to believe we will respond accordingly.

 
 
 
cjcold
4.1.15  cjcold  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @4.1    5 months ago

The far right wing anti-scientists have been arguing against the scientific fact of anthropogenic global warming for many years. 

Seems these same folk (at the Heartland Institute) will continue to deny science on this issue as well.

 
 
 
Tessylo
4.1.16  Tessylo  replied to  r.t..b... @4.1.3    5 months ago

This administration's incompetence and bumbling delayed things for at least a month.  

South Korea had testing down in one week.

Serious lack of supplies thanks to this administration led to more deadly delays.  

How much of this didn't have to happen if this 'president' didn't dismantle the pandemic response team that President Obama put in place?  

 
 
 
It Is ME
4.1.17  It Is ME  replied to  Tessylo @4.1.16    5 months ago
This administration's incompetence and bumbling delayed things for at least a month.

But....Dr. Fauci told us ALL, there was nothing for us to be concerned about for two months. He said the CDC would be the ones to look at this Virus "Seriously". Emphasis on "LOOK" !

You don't watch "Interviews" as seen on TV, or "Read" about "interviews" as seen in Print ?

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
4.1.18  Sean Treacy  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.1.2    5 months ago
because their testing is getting better, so

That's whats happening. We are testing more people and the positive rate is going down. 

 
 
 
Thomas
4.1.19  Thomas  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.1.5    5 months ago
Thus it's easy to second guess. One thing we can say - We did everything thus far according to the health "experts." It's time now for the economic experts!

As to the doing of everything that the experts said.. No, we didn't. Testing is one of those areas. Other countries were doing testing on a much larger scale and far more quickly while we were stumbling around, trying to make a "better" test .  I seeded an article here about communication a little while back. So, no we haven't followed the experts advice.

Economic experts??? Isn't that an oxymoron? 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.1.20  Vic Eldred  replied to  Thomas @4.1.19    4 months ago
Other countries were doing testing on a much larger scale and far more quickly while we were stumbling around, trying to make a "better" test

We were only permitted by the CDC to use their tests and their tests didn't work!  The problem with that was that the US began this mess with nothing!

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.1.21  Vic Eldred  replied to  Sean Treacy @4.1.18    4 months ago

We have learned a lot under fire haven't we?  I want to see where we are come July 1st.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.1.22  Vic Eldred  replied to  Sean Treacy @4.1.18    4 months ago

In approx another month it will become more obvious.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
4.1.23  Sean Treacy  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @4.1    4 months ago

Georgia opened two weeks ago. It’s Covid hospitalizations are at the lowest point since April 8

 
 
 
Krishna
4.2  Krishna  replied to  Sean Treacy @4    5 months ago
There are signs of a respite.  The daily new cases have been about 25,000 and are down from the high of about 40,000 on April 24

Yes-- because most of the cases have been in urban areas (much more social contact due to greater population density)...and there new cases are finally beginning to decline.

And relatively few cases in kless densely populated areas...at first.

But in those areas it merely takes longer for the virus to spread...

(In modern day America, no-one can avoid being exposed...in just takes longer in more rural places)

 
 
 
Release The Kraken
5  Release The Kraken    5 months ago

Expecting America to survive off a $2400 check for months will force the country into bankruptcy. Poverty and starvation.

We have no choice we have to get back to work.

Herd immunity is our only option at this point and we are monthd behind that curve.

Buckle up, we are going to find out.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
5.1  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Release The Kraken @5    5 months ago

So, when your opening results with the death of someone you love, is that is acceptable to you? It isn't to me. 

There are safe ways of opening and not safe ways of opening. This is not an either-or choice. This has to be done carefully and not swinging the doors open. 

btw, the meaning of herd immunity is that enough people don't get a disease from vaccines or natural immunity. That is why it is so important for people to get their vaccinations against diseases like the mumps and polio. Prior to the vaccines, people just got the diseases and either die, suffered, or got better. Parents used to fear the summer and send their children away not to get polio. 

People have forgotten how awful a pandemic can be... until they are dealing with it on a personal level. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.1  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @5.1    5 months ago
btw, the meaning of herd immunity is that enough people don't get a disease from vaccines or natural immunity.

It would appear that the LA Times disagrees with you;

Herd immunity occurs when a large percentage of a population is immune to an infectious disease. There are two ways to achieve it: by exposing a large percentage of the population to a virus, or by producing a vaccine.

Source:  https://sports.yahoo.com/herd-immunity-help-us-fight-193310370.html

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
5.1.2  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @5.1.1    5 months ago

That is not wrong, but the question is death rate. This is from the Mayo Clinic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=8&v=vePpyzp4Yn8&feature=emb_title

And this is from Johns Hopkins about misconceptions on "Herd immunity".

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.3  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @5.1.2    5 months ago
That is not wrong, but the question is death rate.

Wow, we jump from "herd immunity" to death rate at the blink of PH's eyelids.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
5.1.4  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @5.1.3    5 months ago

Wow again trying to make this personal. You are endless today. 

Here let me explain:

They are intertwined and if you even bothered to watch or read what I posted you would have gotten that. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.5  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @5.1.4    5 months ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
Greg Jones
5.2  Greg Jones  replied to  Release The Kraken @5    5 months ago

I'm going to take my chances not standing too close to others, and on masking up when around people while indoors. Outdoors I will continue to go without.

When 24 Hour Fitness opens back up I will be there every day for awhile, while I get back in shape again...it's one of the best things I can do for my immune system.

Large companies down to small business will have to come up with measures and procedures that will work for them until a vaccine is developed.

But American ingenuity and entrepreneurship will find ways and means to overcome the many obstacles that will occur in the workspaces and shops.

I, for one, have had it with all the negativity and doomsday stories being fed to us by the compliant media citing supposed "experts", and will only listen to the consensus view of the medical people.

 This over reactive lockdown simply can not continue in its present form. Sanity and common sense have to prevail going forward.

 
 
 
Krishna
5.2.1  Krishna  replied to  Greg Jones @5.2    5 months ago

But American ingenuity and entrepreneurship will find ways and means to overcome the many obstacles that will occur in the workspaces and shops.

The only real solution is a vaccine (or in the interim, a drug that greatly lessens symptoms). And I agree-- American ingenuity and entrepreneurship will come up with a solution-- the only solution that works-- a vaccine.

But it won't happen in the immediate future. And in the meantime, many people will suffer, and many will die. jrSmiley_5_smiley_image.png

 
 
 
Greg Jones
5.2.2  Greg Jones  replied to  Krishna @5.2.1    5 months ago

So finding and testing a possible vaccine will have to be put on a fast track, 6 months at most, 12-18 months is an unreasonable timeframe.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
6  Vic Eldred    5 months ago

Any discussion of "hot spots" has to begin with nursing homes, which account for 25% of the deaths in NY and 50% of the deaths in MA. On Tuesday, Gov Cuomo was asked about a report from The Associated Press that his team had added more than 1,700 deaths to the count of those who died in nursing homes. I'd attach his response, but that might be interpreted as political. The point is anywhere people are closely confined is a "hot spot". If the confined are over 65 years old with certain medical conditions, it is a death trap. Regardless of what the models claim (many of them conflicting and consistently wrong), we are into the economy phase of this. Let us all hope for the best. 

 
 
 
Release The Kraken
6.1  Release The Kraken  replied to  Vic Eldred @6    5 months ago

I read that this morning.

What an awful decision

 
 
 
XDm9mm
6.2  XDm9mm  replied to  Vic Eldred @6    5 months ago
On Tuesday, Gov Cuomo was asked about a report from The Associated Press that his team had added more than 1,700 deaths to the count of those who died in nursing homes.

Cuomo should be prosecuted for criminally negligent homicide.  It was after all his gubernatorial order that sent those people to their deaths.

Some defend Cuomo but that defense rings hollow.  People that are transported to a hospital with a heart attack or appendicitis are not sent back to the nursing home as those facilities are not equipped to handle them.  The same holds true for this virus.  They were not then nor are they now equipped to handle people with compromised systems and corona virus.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
6.2.1  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @6.2    5 months ago

We've been through his right wing lie before. His order was for nursing homes who could take them should take them. That they were supposed to be in quarantined areas of the home and not all homes were supposed to take them.

What is convenient for you all to dismiss, is that the nursing homes were not checking their staff for covid and large numbers of staff at all nursing homes had covid. 

Let's face it. The fact that NY is turning it around you guys view in a partisan way. Nothing more. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
6.2.2  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @6.2.1    5 months ago
We've been through his right wing lie before.

Did he or did he not send them back to nursing homes?  A simple yes or no is sufficient.

 
 
 
dennis smith
6.2.3  dennis smith  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @6.2.1    5 months ago

What is being done to the nursing homes that don't follow the governors guidelines?

Are they being penalized, sued, fined, closed or just blamed?

 
 
 
Krishna
6.3  Krishna  replied to  Vic Eldred @6    5 months ago
The point is anywhere people are closely confined is a "hot spot"

Which is why is starting to show up in meat packing plants in the Mid-West. And then those workers spread it to their communities...

(I don't know what precaution they can take there-- short of shutting down the plants).

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
6.3.1  Vic Eldred  replied to  Krishna @6.3    5 months ago

Here, take a look:

foodsanitation.jpg

THAT"S HOW!

 
 
 
XDm9mm
7  XDm9mm    5 months ago

384

So, let's see, making a chart comparison of a metropolitan area  to the country is comparable how exactly?

en.wikipedia.org /wiki/ New_York_Metropolitan_Area

The MSA definition is titled the New York-Newark-Jersey City , NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area , and includes a population of 20.3 million people by 2017 Census estimates, roughly 1 in 16 Americans and nearly 7 million more than the second-place Los Angeles metropolitan area in the United State

We'll even expand on the 2017 estimate and say 25 million people in the NY metro MSA as opposed to the 330+ MILLION is relevant how exactly?

I seem to remember Andy boy proclaiming that what "you see here in New York will be you in 'X' number of weeks".  Another prognostication by good 'ole Andy boy shot down like everything else he's proclaimed from the beginning of this.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
7.1  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @7    5 months ago
I seem to remember Andy boy proclaiming that what "you see here in New York will be you in 'X' number of weeks".  Another prognostication by good 'ole Andy boy shot down like everything else he's proclaimed from the beginning of this.

How convenient that you seem to forget he said that before all the states closed down. Now that the states are opening up again, we will see how right or wrong "Andy" is in about 2 weeks. And unlike you, who seem to be getting some sort of glee out of him being wrong, I am hoping that I am wrong. We are talking about fellow Americans here. The chart looks pretty disturbing to me.

 
 
 
Thomas
7.2  Thomas  replied to  XDm9mm @7    5 months ago

Well, if you understood what the chart is showing you, you would not be so glib.  

 
 
 
JohnRussell
8  JohnRussell    5 months ago
In the absence of a vaccine, stopping the spread of the virus requires about two-thirds of the population to have been infected. And some experts have argued that before what is known as herd immunity kicks in, the number of people infected nationwide could reach a staggering 90 percent if social distancing is relaxed and transmission rates climb. (It is also not clear how long immunity will last among those who have been infected.)

If there were no vaccine coming, it would be necessary and inevitable for humanity  ( in this case the US) to resign itself to letting "nature take its course".  What we now have is some advocating that nature take its course even though it is extremely likely a vaccine will be created. There is a likely difference of tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of deaths between the two courses, in the United States. 

We have to open up businesses without breaking social distancing guidelines and other precautions such as masks. Large gatherings also have to be postponed until after the vaccine. This is what fate and destiny are calling on us to do. 

Some cry "freedom" as a motive to end social and business precautions. What about the freedom to live? 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
8.1  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @8    5 months ago
Large gatherings also have to be postponed until after the vaccine.

And how many decades have we been waiting for an HIV/AIDS vaccine?  How about Hepatitis C?

While there is promise, I wouldn't hold your breath for a vaccine.   I'd prefer to push right now on anti-virals rather than wait for an unknown.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
8.1.1  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @8.1    5 months ago

They gave up on the AID's vaccine once they had meds (which big pharma makes a ton on) to make viral load of zero and meds to protect those who don't have the disease (more money to be made there, than a one time vaccine). 

As for Hep C, is a very complex virus and there is a vaccine on the horizon:

https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200415-zhu-hcv-.html

Covid is not a complex virus. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
8.1.2  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @8.1.1    5 months ago
Covid is not a complex virus. 

If it's not complex, why then have they not been able to develop a vaccine or cure for the common cold which is a member of the coronavirus family.

And while Trump is hopeful of a vaccine, as are the pharmaceutical companies, do they have a guarantee of success?

As to what's "on the horizon", if you travel the worlds oceans, you'll always see the horizon, but in point of fact never get there.  Much the same with vaccines.   No one is dumb enough to attempt to guarantee a vaccine.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
8.1.3  Vic Eldred  replied to  XDm9mm @8.1.2    5 months ago
As to what's "on the horizon", if you travel the worlds oceans, you'll always see the horizon, but in point of fact never get there.

Oh, I have to keep that!  There is a bit of a poet in you!

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
8.1.4  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @8.1.2    5 months ago
If it's not complex, why then have they not been able to develop a vaccine or cure for the common cold which is a member of the coronavirus family.

OK, I am going to get very scientific here. 

What we call the "common cold" is a group of viruses called rhinoviruses. They make up about 40 % of colds and there are literally 160 types of them, so you would have to make vaccinations for 160 viruses and since they are a not life-threatening why bother?

20% are coronavirus, but not COVID (novel) and again, not life-threatening and it comes in too many viruses to vaccinate against. 

The last group we have is RSV and parainfluenza. These viruses cause 20% of colds. They sometimes lead to severe infections, like pneumonia, in young children. Like all influenza type diseases, it mutates, so since there too there are too many of them and it doesn't cause too much trouble, they didn't come up with a vaccine. 

COVID19, is a specific form of the coronavirus and so can be targeted. 

We already know that even COVID19 can mutate, so they are attacking this in an entirely different way. They are going after the virus's outer shell markers and bioengineering antibodies as the vaccination, This will prevent needing new vaccines since no matter the variation, the outer part never changes and the body will be able to identify it and destroy it. 

As for on the horizon, eventually, people who travel long enough get to where they are going. 6 labs are reporting within 6 months.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
8.1.5  XDm9mm  replied to  Vic Eldred @8.1.3    5 months ago
Oh, I have to keep that!  There is a bit of a poet in you!

Thank you good sir.   But a poet in me?   I have no idea where it is hidden.   

 
 
 
XDm9mm
8.1.6  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @8.1.4    5 months ago
As for on the horizon, eventually, people who travel long enough get to where they are going.

Unless they're trying to get to the horizon, similar to trying to find the ends of a rainbow.   It's a never ending and impossible quest.

And while there is great promise, there is no guarantee of a vaccine now or ever.   Plus as you yourself note, it has and will mutate, and what works against "A" may in fact be useless for "B".

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
8.1.7  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @8.1.6    5 months ago
And while there is great promise, there is no guarantee of a vaccine now or ever.   Plus as you yourself note, it has and will mutate, and what works against "A" may in fact be useless for "B".

And there is no guarantee that it won't happen either. We have many effective vaccines and they have not mutated  In this case both mutations are still very minor and would be covered by any one vaccine. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
8.1.8  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @8.1.7    5 months ago
In this case both mutations are still very minor and would be covered by any one vaccine. 

And you can guarantee that how exactly?  Hell, remember, to this point in time we don't even have a vaccine, yet, here you are proclaiming what is to come.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
8.1.9  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @8.1.8    5 months ago

https://www.today.com/video/johnson-johnson-ceo-announces-vaccine-candidate-with-high-degree-of-probability-81369669893

Potential COVID-19 Treatments

Companies around the world are developing treatments for COVID-19. This list will be updated as new developments become public.

Vaccine Candidates

  • MRNA-1273   by Moderna
  • Trial Status:   Filed an Investigational New Drug Application with the FDA for Phase II testing.
  • REGM3048-3051   by Regeneron
  • Trial Status:   Preclinical testing, human testing goal for early summer
  • INO-4800   by Inovio Pharmaceuticals
  • Trial Status:   Phase I clinical testing.
  • Unnamed Vaccine   by Johnson & Johnson/Janssen Pharmaceutical Company
  • Effect on Covid-19:   Vaccine (preventative)
  • Trial Status:   Vaccine candidate has been selected. Aiming for Phase I clinical trials to begin in September 2020.
  • BNT162   by Pfizer/Biontech
  • Trial Status:   Phase I/II clinical testing began. Will enroll up to 360 healthy individuals.
  • Unnamed Vaccine   by Sanofi
  • Trial Status:   Ongoing at lab in Meridien, Connecticut. Estimate in vitro testing within six months and potentially clinical trials in 1 year to 18 months
  • NVX-CoV2373   by Novavax/Emergent Biosolutions
  • Trial Status:   Identified vaccine candidate and aims to being Phase I clinical trials in mid May.
  • PittCoVacc   by UniverIty of Pittsburgh, UPMC
  • Recommended Use : SARS, MERS, SKIN CANCER
  • Trial Status:   Preclinical Testing in animals

Potential Treatments

  • PICLIDENOSON   by Can-Fite
  • Recommended Use : Anti-Viral
  • Effect on Covid-19:   Prophylactic and a treatment
  • Trial Status:   Gone through phase I And II Of clinical trials for rheumatoid arthritis
  • EIDD-2801   by Drug Innovation Ventures at Emory
  • Recommended Use : SARS, MERS, Ebola, Influenza
  • Effect on Covid-19:   Oral treatment taken at onset
  • Trial Status:   FDA approved Investigational New Drug application. Human clinical testing will begin in April.

Repurposed Treatments

  • ACTEMRA   by Roche
  • Recommended Use : Rheumatoid arthritis
  • Effect on Covid-19:   For severe lung inflammation
  • Trial Status:   Phase III clinical testing in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia.
  • KEVZARA (sarilumab)   by Regeneron and Sanofi
  • Recommended Use : Rheumatoid arthritis
  • Effect on Covid-19:   For severe lung inflammation
  • Trial Status:   Phase III testing with critical COVID-19 patients
  • HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE   by Sanofi, Sandoz
  • Recommended Use : Malaria, Lupus
  • Trial Status:   Clinical trials launched at Columbia University in New York, University of Minnesota and Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey. The FDA issued guidance that the drug should be prescribed to hospitalized adolescent and adult patients when a clinical trial is not feasible.
  • REMDESIVIR   by Gilead Sciences
  • Recommended Use : Ebola
  • Trial Status:   Two Phase III clinical studies have begun, one in patients with severe manifestations and one in patients with moderate manifestations. Clinical trials at 50 sites globally with goal of 394 patients
  • KALETRA/ALUVIA   by AbbVie
  • Recommended Use : HIV
  • Trial Status:   Clinical trial in China among 20 individuals showed no improvement, clinical trial with 2400 patients to begin in Australia
  • OLUMIANT   by Eli Lilly
  • Recommended Use : Rheumatoid arthritis
  • Trial Status:   Laboratory research to evaluate the benefits and risks
  • FAVIRPIRAVIR   by Fujifilm Toyama Chemical
  • Recommended Use : Influenza
  • Effect on Covid-19:   Normilization of fever in patients in early diagnosis (4 days or less)
  • Trial Status:   Phase II clinicial testing in 50 patients in collaboration with Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Massachusetts General Hospital and UMass Medical School. Being tested in patients in China and it has been effective in those without severe symptoms

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/tracking-development-coronavirus-treatments-n1166691

 
 
 
Krishna
8.1.10  Krishna  replied to  XDm9mm @8.1.2    5 months ago

And while Trump is hopeful of a vaccine, as are the pharmaceutical companies, do they have a guarantee of success?

No one is dumb enough to attempt to guarantee a vaccine.

I dunno-- some people on social media sites are incredibly dumb! 

But getting back to the topic, there's not the slightest doubt in my mind that there will be a vaccine.

But the problem is how long it will take. A year? Two years? A decade?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
8.1.11  Vic Eldred  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @8.1.9    5 months ago
The FDA issued guidance that the drug should be prescribed to hospitalized adolescent and adult patients when a clinical trial is not feasible.

That is another FDA blubder!!!!  HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE is prescribed by doctors early on. It is not effective once a patient is hospitalized and facing a ventilator!

 
 
 
XDm9mm
8.1.12  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @8.1.9    5 months ago
Potential COVID-19 Treatments

I asked how you could guarantee a vaccine, and you respond with a list of POTENTIAL vaccines and treatments.

Exactly where is the GUARANTEE you speak of.  Need I remind you of your own words?

And there is no guarantee that it won't happen either. We have many effective vaccines and they have not mutated  In this case both mutations are still very minor and would be covered by any one vaccine. 
 
 
 
Tessylo
8.1.13  Tessylo  replied to  Vic Eldred @8.1.3    5 months ago

'As to what's "on the horizon", if you travel the worlds oceans, you'll always see the horizon, but in point of fact never get there.'

Gee, how profound.  I'm deeply touched.  

 
 
 
XDm9mm
8.1.14  XDm9mm  replied to  Tessylo @8.1.13    5 months ago
Gee, how profound.  I'm deeply touched. 

Thanks.   I'm surprised it was actually understood.   

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
8.1.15  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @8.1.12    5 months ago

I know my own words. When you go into surgery... even potential surgery, no doctor will GUARANTEE an outcome. They will tell you that the numbers are on your side though. 

Nowhere in this thread did I GUARANTEE anything. You asked for a GUARANTEE, not me. I showed you that there is a high probability of a vaccine happening. This is a worldwide effort for something affecting the world, with some of the most brilliant minds working on this disease. There is already vaccines being tested on people. The probability of finding either a vaccine or treatment is very high.

 
 
 
Thomas
8.1.16  Thomas  replied to  XDm9mm @8.1.2    5 months ago

Your pondering on the horizon... of course you can't get there, by definition of the word . In point of fact, while you can't reach the horizon, in time, you can reach the point that you see as the horizon now. 

Your meanderings indicate you are uninformed. 

The common cold is caused by many different types of virus and does not kill you. While there may be some profit to be had, I think the drug companies have looked at these myriad causes and dismissed the idea as being a poor investment. Who knows, perhaps with the advent of the sequencing tool CRISPR, the economics might change on that. It would seem, however, that the variation in causes would be prohibitive in that regard.

If I could, since you ended your comment with a truism: No matter where you go, there you are.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
8.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @8    5 months ago
What we now have is some advocating that nature take its course even though it is extremely likely a vaccine will be created.

What we have now is some advocating that the US economy remain shut down until a vaccine is developed!!!!! What started out as a shut down until we knew hospitals wouldn't be swamped has turned into a subtle cry for a shutdown until there is a vaccine!  That is national suicide!

We have to open up businesses without breaking social distancing guidelines and other precautions such as masks. Large gatherings also have to be postponed until after the vaccine. 

Of course!  Everyone is onboard for that!

Some cry "freedom" as a motive to end social and business precautions. 

That is a political opinion. 

 
 
 
JohnRussell
8.2.1  JohnRussell  replied to  Vic Eldred @8.2    5 months ago
That is national suicide!

No it's not.  There will still be hotels, cruise lines, business conventions, concerts, casinos, college football, food festivals , and mass rallies after a vaccine. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
8.2.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @8.2.1    5 months ago

But a total shutdown like Pelosi called for - "Until a robust testing and contact tracing system is in place" means everything would be shut down indefinitely. Far beyond the  "hotels, cruise lines, business conventions, concerts, casinos, college football, food festivals , and mass rallies" which nobody disputes should be shut down!

 
 
 
XDm9mm
8.2.3  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @8.2.1    5 months ago
and mass rallies after a vaccine. 

And exactly when and where is that vaccine JR?   Are you willing to sit on your ass until such time as one is available?   We still don't have vaccines for HIV/AIDS nor Hep-C, or even the common cold.

 
 
 
Krishna
8.2.4  Krishna  replied to  Vic Eldred @8.2.2    5 months ago
But a total shutdown like Pelosi called for

What's with all your political comments here?

 
 
 
Greg Jones
8.2.5  Greg Jones  replied to  Vic Eldred @8.2    5 months ago

In the meantime, more and more people are losing their jobs and losing hope.  These needless shutdowns must be stopped before it is too late.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/1-in-5-american-workers-has-filed-for-unemployment-benefits-since-mid-march/ar-BB13JGty?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=AARDHP

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
9  Vic Eldred    5 months ago

BTW, how about this latest bit of news from Gov Cuomo:

"Most new  Covid-19  hospitalizations in New York state are from people who were staying home and not venturing much outside, a “shocking” finding, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.   

The preliminary data was from 100 New York hospitals involving about 1,000 patients, Cuomo said at his daily briefing.

It shows that 66% of new admissions were from people who had largely been sheltering at home. The next highest source of admissions was from nursing homes, 18%."

106523414-1588781378539image.jpg?v=1588781457&w=678&h=381

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html


If this is true, the experts couldn't have been more wrong!
 
 
 
Vic Eldred
9.1  Vic Eldred  replied to  Vic Eldred @9    5 months ago

The Governor also released these other major discoveries:

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Bad news for the lockdown tyrants?

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
9.1.1  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.1    5 months ago

Vic you are cherry-picking. 

Gov Cuomo also went on to say, that what they have found is that although they are saying they are staying at home, they are also not wearing masks at home and that they go out to get the essentials, thus making them exposed. Viruses enter the home from nowhere. This is a known fact.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
9.1.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @9.1.1    5 months ago

They are supposed to wear masks in their homes?  How would the Governor know?

and that they go out to get the essentials

I don't! I have everything delivered and btw Walmart was having a tough time taking on all the delivery business, but they have begun to get a handle on it. The last order I got everything I ordered, including meat items. We now live in an era where everything can be delivered. My car is idle most days.

Viruses enter the home from nowhere. This is a known fact.

Thus there is no protection?  What should be done?

 
 
 
XDm9mm
9.1.3  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @9.1.1    5 months ago
Gov Cuomo also went on to say, that what they have found is that although they are saying they are staying at home, they are also not wearing masks at home and that they go out to get the essentials, thus making them exposed. Viruses enter the home from nowhere. This is a known fact.

So then to ensure absolute safety will Andy boy mandate that all NY homes be retrofitted to BioHazard level 4 standards?  That is after all the only way to "stop the spread" is it not?

My point is that there is NO ABSOLUTE GUARANTEE of not contracting this or any other virus for that matter.  To quote you:  "This is a known fact."

 
 
 
sandy-2021492
9.1.4  sandy-2021492  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.1.2    5 months ago
Thus there is no protection?

I think Perrie meant to say that viruses don't enter the home from nowhere.  Yes, there are protections.  They are not always easily implemented.

Family members could inadvertently bring it home.  Or they could be exposed when out getting necessities.  Delivery service for groceries and medications isn't available everywhere.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
9.1.5  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @9.1.3    5 months ago

You know what... this is not a serious discussion. When you decide to stop trying to irritate me with "Andy" and ridiculous comments about BioHazard level 4 standards, maybe we can then again talk.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
9.1.6  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  sandy-2021492 @9.1.4    5 months ago
I think Perrie meant to say that viruses don't enter the home from nowhere.  Yes, there are protections.  They are not always easily implemented.

That is exactly what I meant. Thank you for clarifying. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
9.1.7  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @9.1.5    5 months ago
You know what... this is not a serious discussion. When you decide to stop trying to irritate me with "Andy" and ridiculous comments about BioHazard level 4 standards, maybe we can then again talk.

Wow....   so defensive of the man in the governors mansion.  Is his name not "Andrew Cuomo", and is Andy not a name frequently used for those named Andrew?   I simply use the name Andy as I have absolutely no respect for that man nor his brother for that matter.  Neither is their father who happened to be Governor when I was a NY resident and the man I actually voted for.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
9.1.8  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @9.1.7    5 months ago

Oh I heard ya loud and clear but my governor who I do have a lot of respect for (and you know that, so you were trying to be annoying), is not the subject here. Furthermore, neither are rediculous comments about BioHazard suits. 

Again, when you want to have a discussion, let me know.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
9.1.9  XDm9mm  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @9.1.8    5 months ago
Again, when you want to have a discussion, let me know.

You don't want discussion.  You simply want acquiescence to your personal belief.  I'm sorry but I'm not into the "All Hail Cuomo" club.

 
 
 
r.t..b...
9.1.10  r.t..b...  replied to  XDm9mm @9.1.9    5 months ago
I'm sorry but I'm not into the "All Hail Cuomo" club.

The 'Aw, hell...Cuomo' club perhaps.

"Never the twain shall meet."

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
9.1.11  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  XDm9mm @9.1.9    5 months ago
You don't want discussion.  You simply want acquiescence to your personal belief.  I'm sorry but I'm not into the "All Hail Cuomo" club.

That is utter BS. Anyone who can read up the thread can tell I tried to engage you several times in a meaningful discussion. There is no need for the name calling. You just tried to do that so that I would lose it with you. Hint: I don't lose it with people. 

So here is the point again: 

Gov Cuomo also went on to say, that what they have found is that although they are saying they are staying at home, they are also not wearing masks at home and that they go out to get the essentials, thus making them exposed. Viruses enter the home from nowhere. This is a known fact.

Please answer with an actual fact.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
9.1.12  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  r.t..b... @9.1.10    5 months ago
The 'Aw, hell...Cuomo' club perhaps. "Never the twain shall meet."

This really has nada to do with Cuomo. This has to do with the facts. Counter what I have to say with your own facts. It really is that simple. 

 
 
 
Krishna
9.1.13  Krishna  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.1.2    5 months ago
I don't! I have everything delivered

Something to think about{ how many pairs of hands touched those products from where the product was sourced t\'till it finally reached you?

How many people, not wearing masks, were close to that product and possibly breathed on it, or coughed and sneezed?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
9.1.14  Vic Eldred  replied to  Krishna @9.1.13    5 months ago
Something to think about{ how many pairs of hands touched those products from where the product was sourced t\'till it finally reached you?

According to the Surgeon General Jerome Adams, who also has food delivered, he told Martha MacCallum that he leaves all of the non perishables on the table for a few hours. The perishables get wiped down and put away. Iv'e done that since I heard it. However, the same is true even if I went to the store and bought it, except that now I'd be in a crowd of people and at 67, that's not where I should be. If I were 27, I would definitely go and do my own shopping. You seem to be saying what? That we shouldn't dare eat anymore?  How much more fear should we generate?  

There is has been way too much fear ginned up on this already.

 
 
 
Greg Jones
9.1.15  Greg Jones  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @9.1.1    5 months ago
Viruses enter the home from nowhere. This is a known fact.

I don't sit around in my apartment wearing a mask, nor when I go to open space parks to walk

I do wear one when leaving the apartment and when I go to the store.

I don't think that the virus is simply free floating around in the atmosphere or easily transmitted that way.

Please provide a source for your above statement.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/travel-from-new-york-city-seeded-wave-of-us-outbreaks/ar-BB13J7Yx?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=AARDHP

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
9.1.16  FLYNAVY1  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.1.14    5 months ago
There is has been way too much fear ginned up on this already.
As stated by one of the leading conspiracy types here on NT....!  How Ironic....
 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
9.1.17  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.1    5 months ago

We clearly see now see what an major league buffoon cuomo is.  From claiming all is well at first, then sentencing people in nursing homes to death and crying wolf on ventilators and so much more.  I don't know how people can even stand to listen to the guy with that accent.  And to think they reflexed to wanting to draft that jerk to replace Biteme. It's pathetic.  Stockholm syndrome. Lot of that going aroud.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
9.2  JohnRussell  replied to  Vic Eldred @9    5 months ago

106523414-1588781378539image.jpg?v=1588781457&w=678&h=381

If this is true, the experts couldn't have been more wrong!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's whats wrong with your conclusion. 

1. Those who stay at home have not been staying at home 100% of the time. I know someone who went out for the first time in weeks to make a quick run to Sams Club and caught the virus. I would guess that very few people who are not invalids ( or old) have stayed home 100% of the time in the past two months. Then , if someone who has gone out has contracted the virus has come back home and infected the old or invalid there then you see that part of the spread. 

2. Half the country is working from home and another 20% have been laid off. Throw in retirees , kids and the disabled, and non- working parents (caregivers) and you have most of the country accounted for at home. 

3. What would the infection rate be if we didnt have 3/4 of the population staying home?   Much higher than it is now. 

4. 66% of the hospitalizations are from people who have been staying home. But 66% of what?  The number of hospitalizations has been leveling off.  Without the social distancing, that would not have happened. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
9.2.1  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @9.2    5 months ago
Those who stay at home have not been staying at home 100% of the time.

Even if they haven't why would they have a higher rate of infection than those who don't stay at home?


Half the country is working from home and another 20% have been laid off. Throw in retirees , kids and the disabled, and non- working parents (caregivers) and you have most of the country accounted for at home. 

The funny part of that is those who can't sit home working with a computer, tending kids or retired are the ESSENTIALS right now - the hospital workers, emergency workers, truckers, grocery store personnel and service employees. Regardless of how you want to manipulate the stats that chart defies belief. And as I said, if it is true - Fauci and company were wrong AGAIN!


Without the social distancing, that would not have happened. 

The entire country is doing that John. No Governor has said let's just open everything up and roll the dice. To date the most closed up state has the lion's share of the deaths! The question remains - WHY?

 
 
 
sandy-2021492
9.2.2  sandy-2021492  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.2.1    5 months ago
Even if they haven't why would they have a higher rate of infection than those who don't stay at home?

We don't know that they do.  They have a higher hospitalization rate.  Since many infected people have mild symptoms and don't require hospitalization, the hospitalization rate does not necessarily reflect the infection rate.

It could be that many of those who are staying at home are retirees - those above 60, and with comorbidities, but not necessarily in need of nursing home care.  They're still at risk of infection, unless they stay at home with no physical contact with anybody other than themselves (very unlikely), and if infected, they're at higher risk of complications.  They're more likely to be hospitalized at a higher rate due to their demographics.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
9.2.3  JohnRussell  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.2.1    5 months ago

where does it say that people who "stay home" have a higher rate of infection than people who dont? 

i dont see that in that graphic

More than 66% of the country falls into that "stay home" category.  That doesnt mean they never go out at all, it means they are working at home , or laid off or retired. I dont know anyone personally who has never gone out of their house since this thing started.  

We know that "staying home" has worked because the rate of the infection slowed right after people started staying home. If more people stayed home it would have slowed more. 

 
 
 
Krishna
9.2.4  Krishna  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.2.1    5 months ago
Even if they haven't why would they have a higher rate of infection than those who don't stay at home?

Well, I'll ignore your blatantly political attack on gov. Cuomo.

Why?

Because a percentage of those that stay at home do so because they are in poor health. Or otherwise not as vigorous as those that leave every morning to go to work 

In addition, of those 65 and older, not all a larger percentage of them stay home and do not go out to work.

A percentage of younger healthier people who do go out to work have come in con tact with the virus...but while they don't show symptoms they are carriers.

 
 
 
Krishna
9.2.5  Krishna  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.2.1    5 months ago
To date the most closed up state has the lion's share of the deaths! The question remains - WHY?

Simple-- the key words are :to date".

Because the virus spreads much more quickly in densely populated areas. So they have a higher % of cases at this point than more rural areas.

 
 
 
Krishna
9.2.6  Krishna  replied to  sandy-2021492 @9.2.2    5 months ago
It could be that many of those who are staying at home are retirees - those above 60, and with comorbidities, but not necessarily in need of nursing home care. 

Exactly!

And members of their family who have the virus but have few if any symptoms can spread it when they come home.

(Vic's arguments make no sense-- [DELETED][).]

[Well Duh!!!]

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
9.2.7  Vic Eldred  replied to  sandy-2021492 @9.2.2    5 months ago
It could be that many of those who are staying at home are retirees - those above 60, and with comorbidities, but not necessarily in need of nursing home care. 

And it could be that many of those have brushed off routine medical treatments that they should have had during this chaotic crisis and that's the reason for the death rate, if it can be believed. Who determined that those people were staying home? I really have little faith in those stats that Cuomo provided today.

 
 
 
sandy-2021492
9.2.8  sandy-2021492  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.2.7    5 months ago

That could also be.

The point is that hospitalizations do not equal total number of infections.  Across all age groups, hospitalizations are less than known infections, but given what we know about coronavirus, the gap between the two will lessen in older populations, which are likely to include retirees.

As far as tracking the number of people staying home, I believe much if not all of that is being accomplished by tracking cell phone data.

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
9.2.9  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Vic Eldred @9.2.1    5 months ago
Fauci and company were wrong AGAIN!

The more we find out about Fauci we see that my instincts were correct and that the guy truly is a scumbag.

 
 
 
evilgenius
9.2.10  evilgenius  replied to  Freedom Warrior @9.2.9    5 months ago
The more we find out about Fauci we see that my instincts were correct and that the guy truly is a scumbag.

Why does Trump surround himself with scumbags?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
9.2.11  Vic Eldred  replied to  Freedom Warrior @9.2.9    5 months ago

I just don't see where this guy is such an expert and why we all went as far as we did with this. The shut down was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. The extended shut down has destroyed many hospitals along with many lives.

 
 
 
Krishna
9.2.12  Krishna  replied to  evilgenius @9.2.10    4 months ago
Why does Trump surround himself with scumbags?

Well, while Fauci may be a "scumbag"-- at least he's not like some of the other scumbags Trump has surrounded himself with-- some of whom are convicted (and/or indicted) felons!

 
 
 
Krishna
10  Krishna    5 months ago
There are signs of a respite.  The daily new cases have been about 25,000 and are down from the high of about 40,000 on April 24

Yes-- because most of the cases have been in urban areas (much more social contact due to greater population density)...and there new cases are finally beginning to decline.

And relatively few cases in kless densely populated areas...at first.

But in those areas it merely takes longer for the virus to spread...

(In modern day America, no-one can avoid being exposed...in just takes longer in more rural places)

 
 
 
Krishna
11  Krishna    5 months ago
I don't! I have everything delivered

Something to think about{ how many pairs of hands touched those products from where the product was sourced t\'till it finally reached you?

How many people, not wearing masks, were close to that product and possibly breathed on it, or coughed and sneezed?

 
 
 
Krishna
12  Krishna    5 months ago
Even if they haven't why would they have a higher rate of infection than those who don't stay at home?

Well, I'll ignore your blatantly political attack on gov. Cuomo.

Why?

Because a percentage of those that stay at home do so because they are in poor health. Or otherwise not as vigorous as those that leave every morning to go to work 

In addition, of those 65 and older, not all a larger percentage of them stay home and do not go out to work.

A percentage of younger healthier people who do go out to work have come in con tact with the virus...but while they don't show symptoms they are carriers.

 
 
 
Kavika
13  Kavika     5 months ago

Another 2500 plus died today from the virus. 

 
 
 
Greg Jones
13.1  Greg Jones  replied to  Kavika @13    5 months ago

Without context and details that statement is meaningless.

 
 
 
Krishna
13.1.1  Krishna  replied to  Greg Jones @13.1    4 months ago
Without context and details that statement is meaningless.

Your compassion for your fellow humans is duly noted...

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
13.1.2  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Greg Jones @13.1    4 months ago

Here is context.

Since March 1 1,297,549 cases /77,744 dead. This is as morning May 9. That 100,000 mark by June 1 is looking very real right now. That will be only 3 months. If we don't get a vaccine how do you think it will look on Dec 31? Do the math.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
13.1.3  JohnRussell  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @13.1.2    4 months ago
That 100,000 mark by June 1 is looking very real right now.

Yep. 

 
 
 
Kavika
13.1.4  Kavika   replied to  Greg Jones @13.1    4 months ago

I could provide the detail and context but then you'd have to read and understand it. 

As of 2:20 PM EST the death toll in the US from the coronavirus stands at 79,299. 

Feel free to deal with the context and detail.

If you'd like to discuss the ''Herd Immunity'' experiment in Sweden feel free to ask. I'll lay out the current sitution in context and detail for you. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
13.1.5  Vic Eldred  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @13.1.2    4 months ago
. If we don't get a vaccine how do you think it will look on Dec 31?

If we do get a vaccine by Dec 31, it will be nothing short of a miracle!  So what is the context?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
13.1.6  Vic Eldred  replied to  Kavika @13.1.4    4 months ago
Feel free to deal with the context and detail.

Let's discuss it. We know the count. What is the context?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
13.1.7  Vic Eldred  replied to  Greg Jones @13.1    4 months ago
 
 
 
Vic Eldred
14  Vic Eldred    4 months ago

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The positivity rate for covid19 continues to decline while the number of people tested continues to grow.

 
 
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