Crushing climate impacts to hit sooner than feared: draft UN report
Category: News & Politics
Via: dig • 3 years ago • 94 commentsBy: Marlowe Hood With Patrick Galey and Kelly MacNamara
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Climate change will fundamentally reshape life on Earth in the coming decades, even if humans can tame planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, according to a landmark draft report from the UN's climate science advisors obtained by AFP.
Species extinction, more widespread disease, unliveable heat, ecosystem collapse, cities menaced by rising seas—these and other devastating climate impacts are accelerating and bound to become painfully obvious before a child born today turns 30.
The choices societies make now will determine whether our species thrives or simply survives as the 21st century unfolds, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says in a draft report seen exclusively by AFP.
But dangerous thresholds are closer than once thought, and dire consequences stemming from decades of unbridled carbon pollution are unavoidable in the short term.
"The worst is yet to come, affecting our children's and grandchildren's lives much more than our own," the report says.
By far the most comprehensive catalogue ever assembled of how climate change is upending our world, the report reads like a 4,000-page indictment of humanity's stewardship of the planet.
But the document, designed to influence critical policy decisions, is not scheduled for release until February 2022—too late for crunch UN summits this year on climate, biodiversity and food systems, some scientists say.
In response to AFP's reporting, the IPCC released a statement saying it "does not comment on the contents of draft reports while work is still ongoing".
Allies into enemies
The draft report comes at a time of global "eco-awakening" and serves as a reality check against a slew of ill-defined net-zero promises by governments and corporations worldwide.
The challenges it highlights are systemic, woven into the very fabric of daily life.
They are also deeply unfair: those least responsible for global warming will suffer disproportionately, the report makes clear.
And it shows that even as we spew record amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we are undermining the capacity of forests and oceans to absorb them, turning our greatest natural allies in the fight against warming into enemies.
It warns that previous major climate shocks dramatically altered the environment and wiped out most species, raising the question of whether humanity is sowing the seeds of its own demise.
"Life on Earth can recover from a drastic climate shift by evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems," it says.
"Humans cannot."
'Irreversible consequences'
There are at least four main takeaways in the draft report, which may be subject to minor changes in the coming months as the IPCC shifts its focus to a key executive summary for policymakers.
The first is that with 1.1 degrees Celsius of warming clocked so far, the climate is already changing.
A decade ago, scientists believed that limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius above mid-19th century levels would be enough to safeguard our future.
That goal is enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement, adopted by nearly 200 nations who vowed to collectively cap warming at "well below" two degrees Celsius—and 1.5 degrees if possible.
On current trends, we're heading for three degrees Celsius at best.
Earlier models predicted we were not likely to see Earth-altering climate change before 2100.
But the UN draft report says that prolonged warming even beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius could produce "progressively serious, centuries' long and, in some cases, irreversible consequences".
Last month, the World Meteorological Organization projected a 40 percent chance that Earth will cross the 1.5-degree threshold for at least one year by 2026.
For some plants and animals, it could be too late.
"Even at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, conditions will change beyond many organisms' ability to adapt," the report notes.
Coral reefs—ecosystems on which half a billion people depend—are one example.
Indigenous populations in the Arctic face cultural extinction as the environment upon which their livelihoods and history are built melts beneath their snow shoes.
A warming world has also increased the length of fire seasons, doubled potential burnable areas, and contributed to food systems losses.
Get ready
The world must face up to this reality and prepare for the onslaught—a second major takeaway of the report.
"Current levels of adaptation will be inadequate to respond to future climate risks," it cautions.
Mid-century projections—even under an optimistic scenario of two degrees Celsius of warming—make this an understatement.
Tens of millions more people are likely to face chronic hunger by 2050, and 130 million more could experience extreme poverty within a decade if inequality is allowed to deepen.
In 2050, coastal cities on the "frontline" of the climate crisis will see hundreds of millions of people at risk from floods and increasingly frequent storm surges made more deadly by rising seas.
Some 350 million more people living in urban areas will be exposed to water scarcity from severe droughts at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming—410 million at two degrees Celsius.
That extra half-a-degree will also mean 420 million more people exposed to extreme and potentially lethal heatwaves.
"Adaptation costs for Africa are projected to increase by tens of billions of dollars per year with warming greater than two degrees," the report cautions.
Point of no return
Thirdly, the report outlines the danger of compound and cascading impacts, along with point-of-no-return thresholds in the climate system known as tipping points, which scientists have barely begun to measure and understand.
A dozen temperature trip wires have now been identified in the climate system for irreversible and potentially catastrophic change.
Recent research has shown that warming of two degrees Celsius could push the melting of ice sheets atop Greenland and the West Antarctic—with enough frozen water to lift oceans 13 metres (43 feet)—past a point of no return.
Other tipping points could see the Amazon basin morph from tropical forest to savannah, and billions of tonnes of carbon leech from Siberia's permafrost, fuelling further warming.
In the more immediate future, some regions—eastern Brazil, Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean, central China—and coastlines almost everywhere could be battered by multiple climate calamities at once: drought, heatwaves, cyclones, wildfires, flooding.
But global warming impacts are also amplified by all the other ways that humanity has shattered Earth's equilibrium.
These include "losses of habitat and resilience, over-exploitation, water extraction, pollution, invasive non-native species and dispersal of pests and diseases," the report says.
There is no easy solution to such a tangle of problems, said Nicholas Stern, former chief economist at the World Bank and author of the landmark Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.
"The world is confronting a complex set of interwoven challenges," said Stern, who did not contribute to the IPCC report.
"Unless you tackle them together, you are not going to do very well on any of them."
'Transformational change'
There is very little good news in the report, but the IPCC stresses that much can be done to avoid worst-case scenarios and prepare for impacts that can no longer be averted, the final takeaway.
Conservation and restoration of so-called blue carbon ecosystems—kelp and mangrove forests, for example—enhance carbon stocks and protect against storm surges, as well as providing wildlife habitats, coastal livelihoods and food security.
Transitioning to more plant-based diets could also reduce food-related emissions as much as 70 percent by 2050.
But simply swapping a gas guzzler for a Tesla or planting billions of trees to offset business-as-usual isn't going to cut it, the report warns.
"We need transformational change operating on processes and behaviours at all levels: individual, communities, business, institutions and governments," it says.
"We must redefine our way of life and consumption."
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Any optimists left out there?
My Portland OR home office reports that the prediction was calling for 113 degrees today.
113 Effeing Fahrenheit Degrees in Portland ORegon ??
At 12:51 PCT they were already at 109 degrees.
That is record breaking insanity.
Yeah, I've been hearing about it. That's really something for the Pacific Northwest. Not much air conditioning around either, according to the reports I've seen on TV.
My IT guy works from home and they had a blackout yesterday resulting in his house going up to 111 degrees,
now he's recovering from heat stroke/exhaustion.
Today in Baltimore, with the heat index, at 96 it will feel like106.
True. Our average temp for this time of year is mid 70's. I have AC because I detest hot weather but the vast majority of people in this region have none.
WOW!
Same scary bullshit we've been hearing for years. Sadly, the tipping point is behind us
Humans are doomed to extinction....some fish and a few shrews or meerkats will survive to re-establish evolution
What has to happen for you to not look at this as a joke?
I don't care since I'll no longer will be here if worse comes to worst.
These wild ass predictions based on the the flimsiest of scientific evidence are not convincing to the vast majority of world's ordinary people. The climate change crowd has done a piss poor job selling this coming climate catastrophe....by fear mongering and name calling of honest skeptics
You dont care about future generations?
No, he doesn't.
That is pure narcissism. You have no concern for the well being of anyone other than yourself??
So what does it take for you to not look at this as some extremely poor taste joke?
Wow, that's incredibly selfish and short sighted.
ignore it. most of the climate deniers will be a worm buffet before the environmental catastrophe they created takes place.
As will most of the climate change believers.
Some of these leftist wrist-wringers go on full personal attack mode when their virtue signaling orthodoxy is challenged
You don't even know what that means, do you?
Attitudes like that are what is killing America. "As long as it doesn't affect me personally, who gives a shit!!!???" Must be nice to be so callous to simply not care about anyone but yourself.
The obvious difference being that the left wants to and has been trying to do something to solve the problem, where the right has the, "fuck it, let everyone die" attitude.
There will be no "future generations" that is a biggest part of the damn problem no one wants to address. There are far too damn many of us; and the population is growing each and every damn day! It doesn't matter what steps we take; so long as there is no will to control population growth it is too damn late; and will always be too damn late!
The tipping point has already been passed; we are now heading towards the point where there will be a massive reset of our numbers one way or the other. Either the resources will dry up and we will lower our numbers by killing each other off to obtain them; there will be several massive plagues that will kill most of us off; or we will literally not be able to grow/maintain enough food in order to feed the burgeoning population and will starve. More than likely it will be a combination of the three things.
All the environmentalists are doing is slapping a small bandage on the problem; and cashing in on it before it eventually cashes them out.
So we are basically doomed to go full-on Soylant Green?
I guess it is one possiblilty.
I just checked the weather forecast for today, Greg. 115 degrees. I am a 5 hour drive from the Canadian border. That's 35 degrees warmer than Houston, TX.
The left has been warning of global warming for decades and the right has constantly ignored the warnings or called, "bullshit".
Sadly, it's only going to get worse.
Yep, we're screwed.
The environmentally blind will continue to turn a blind eye to what is happening.
I posted an article on the Florida Keys a few days ago and how climate change is affecting the Keys.
Of course they will turn a blind eye. Denial (or delusion) must be a wonderful thing.
What's happening to the Florida Keys will happen anyways. Before the next Ice Age the sea levels will rise another possibly 8 meters and there isn't that much time, as was stated by a commenter on another article the beginning of the next Ice Age is only 1500 years away, so the natural global warming cycle to melt the ice sheets and glaciers need to kick it into gear there's not that much time left.
It's not going to happen, though. Google it. The emissions we've already released could delay the next cycle by 50,000 to 100,000 years, possibly skipping the next glacial period altogether.
Oh, I'm sure I could Google all kinds of things stating the opinion we are doomed to fry on earth, but what I did Google was the sea level rises compared to Ice Ages and before every Ice Age there was a sea level rise much higher than where we are right now. So how do we get that much of a sea level rise, well it needs to warm enough to melt the Greenland ice sheet and a partial of the Antarctic ice sheets. Well that begs the question, is the global warming trend natural leading into the next Ice Age? Or does it even matter how the earth warms, we are headed into the next Ice Age.
I'm pretty sure that at least the past 4 interglacials had thermal maximums that were were warmer than we are now, with corresponding sea level rises that were higher than what we have now.
Our interglacial period, the Holocene, did not follow the trend. The thermal maximum of our initial warming was lower, and instead of dropping back off as fast as other interglacials did, temps have held remarkably stable for the past 11,000 years (comparatively speaking). In a way, the planet dodged some of the warming bullet this time around, possibly due to orbital mechanics (from what I've read), but I don't think the reason is completely understood yet.
As weird as that is, it's also kind of beside the point, as it all occurred well before the rise of industrialized human society.
The problem today is that while our milder-than-normal interglacial period should be falling back toward another glacial period (but over thousands of years, in keeping with Milankovitch cycles), the opposite is happening. We should be well past our thermal maximum, (which is supposed to be near the start of interglacials), but all of a sudden, 11,000+ years later, the planet is getting warmer, and fast. Too fast.
It's because of us.
We are currently seeing 105 degree+ temperatures in the pacific northwest states, virtually unheard of .
I remember an article I read a year or two ago that said that because of climate change 100+ degree temperatures will become more and more widespread in the northern part of the country over the rest of this century. We currently have 2 or 3 100 degree days in Chicago during July or August every year. With the climate change the coming decades will see 20 or 30 hundred degree days in Chicago.
In the southern half of the country? Forget it. 100 + degree days will be virtually year round in Texas and Arizona and southern California.
The weather is going to make your grandchildren and great grandchildren miserable, eventually 365 days a year.
Not really. Last time was 1981 and the time prior to that was 1941 and prior to that I believe was 1927 in the 100+ category. Yes, they are setting new records but 100+ has been around for awhile in the past.
But what we have not seen, is widespread global droughts. You have to look at the total picture.
Can you post some sources supporting the link between droughts and climate change?
I was speaking to the northwest and the recent heat wave up there. It is NOT unprecedented as some want us to believe.
Actually, it is unprecedented
Canada recorded its highest temp ever.
I am not saying that it is unprecedented. What I am saying is what is unprecedented in humankind's existence, is that it is going on worldwide.
The problem here is that this has to be a whole earth proposition and man has shown that as a species, we are very short-sighted.
It's not a matter of 'what some want us to believe', it's truth.
You think Greg will actually read the links?
LOL!
You're talking "record highs". I am talking temps over 100. It is NOT unprecedented to be over 100 degrees.
It is NOT unprecedented to have temps above 100 degrees FFS. That is the point
Did you? LOL indeed.
Unprecedented: Northwest heat wave builds, records fall
That’s how the National Weather Service described the historic heat wave hitting the Pacific Northwest, …
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Intense. Prolonged. Record-breaking. Unprecedented. Abnormal. Dangerous.
That’s how the National Weather Service described the historic heat wave hitting the Pacific Northwest, pushing daytime temperatures into the triple digits, disrupting Olympic qualifying events and breaking all-time high temperature records in places unaccustomed to such extreme heat.
Portland, Oregon, reached 112 degrees Fahrenheit (44.4 Celsius) Sunday, breaking the all-time temperature record of 108 F (42.2C), which was set just a day earlier.
In Eugene, Oregon, the U.S. track and field trials were halted Sunday afternoon and fans were asked to evacuate the stadium due to extreme heat. The National Weather Service said it hit 110 F (43.3 C) in Eugene, breaking the all-time record of 108 F (42.2 C).
Oregon's Capital city, Salem, also recorded the highest temperature in its history on Sunday: 112 F (44.4 C), breaking the old mark by 4 degrees.
The temperature hit 104 F (40 C) in Seattle. The NWS said that was an all-time record for the city better known for rain than heat and was the first time the area recorded two consecutive triple digit days since records began being kept in 1894.
Records were being broken across the region, and the sizzling temperatures were expected to get even hotter Monday before beginning to cool Tuesday.
The all time record HIGHS are unprecedented. not the temperatures over 100 degrees. FFS we are both right. Compromise and admit it for once. Oops forgot whom I was addressing.
My original post that you replied to did not mention 100 degree days in the Pacific Northwest,
We are currently seeing 105 degree+ temperatures in the pacific northwest states, virtually unheard of
105 degree+ temperatures, are virtually unheard of in that region, as the news stories say.
I got your point, and i didnt originally answer you back. However, I knew that I had heard news announcers describe the situation up there are unprecedented.
We can compromise about it , I dont care.
How utterly big of you..................
It all depends where the high pressure dome sets up, and this varies from year to year.
These features can be persistent.
The heat is a weather event that can't be linked to climate change.
NASA is another great source of information with regards to CC.
I have lived here in the PNW all my life. Before last week, I could count the number of 100+ days on one hand, we are now on day 3 of 105+ temps, 115 today.
I live here, you are mistaken.
Climate affects weather, Greg.
Climate IS weather over time.
Yes, thank you.
I agree, but there are some who do not trust NASA, so I try to find other scholarly research.
Well that is certainly true.
There are some who don't trust any scientific organizations.
The "Q" come to mind...
Too bad we had to take everything with us.
The Egyptians tried as hard as anyone...... still "no biscuit".
There is a small bit of good news, that is not covered in this report. The sun is going through a 50 year cooling period. The last time this happened was 1645 and 1715 and known as the Little Ice Age. Hopefully, this time it will affect the earth the same way it did back then.
The bad news is that people who deny that we affect the earth will use this as a way of denial.
And why not? They have been saying for years that the earth goes through these cycles and your posit is an example of that.
The difference is, we are at the point where we are disrupting those cycles.
Because these are not mutually exclusive events. Yes, the earth has its own cycle and yes we can affect these cycles. What is unique, is that we are producing huge amounts of greenhouse gases, and that is a variable that never existed before.
The difference is, we are at the point where we are disrupting those cycles.
Unscientific opinions are not facts
It's not opinion. It's fact. Or do you seriously think the billions of tons of greenhouse gasses we put into the atmosphere every year has no effect?
It's not likely to change.
Worldwide, people and their governments will not be willing to give up their...
fossil fuel driven factories, power plants, cars, trucks, planes, and trains. Alternative fuels are unavailable or impractical in these applications. Alternative fuels or energy sources will never meet the ever increasing demands, at least in our lifetimes
And that's why our species sucks and why we're eventually screwed.
I did say that here:
I also said that we as a species are short-sighted.
One side of the coin says our great grandchildren will pay, the other side of the coin says there won't be any great grandchildren. Do you really want to leave this to a coin flip?
That doesn't sound very good no matter which side the coin lands on.
It's not, however, one side is a better outcome than the other and so far I like the offspring of my DNA ... she's turned out to be an improvement.
Oh Hal, you know you can't improve on the original recipe.
Her mother had more to do with the original shake and bake.
Giggity.
You mean the crop failures and famines? I guess that is a good thing to hope for/s.
Look up the Thermosphere and its reaction to the output of the sun. A cooling sun does not equal a cooling earth, it could actually do the opposite or have a cancelling effect.
Extreme heat or extreme cold, the result is the same on crops.
Not really, most crops need the heat to produce to maturity, as for cold there is nothing to be done about that the crops will suffer.
This year alone we had below normal temps after the crops were planted and started, the oats stopped growing and the corn started to yellow, then the temps went above normal and it all took off, the oats look beautiful now and the corn is way over knee high and well ahead of the fourth.
That was before we had temperatures that we are living with now, so there was nothing to counter it.
You might want to read this article:
The Thermosphere protects us from the sun's radiation and has an inverse reaction with the size of the atmosphere. And although the gases may get hot within it, the actual temp is always at freezing. Just ask the guys in the International space station, which resides there.
Which means that during a solar max these gasses impede the sun's heat and radiation further out in space reflecting and/or diverting the radiation back to space at a higher percentage rate and during a minimum the thermosphere contracts back into the upper atmosphere and a lower percentage of radiation is sent back to space. And that the guys/gals (I was chastised a while back for not including the ladies in a discussion about religion) in the ISS know it gets dang hot on the sunny side and darn cold on the shaded side as they orbit doing their part in blocking some of the sun's radiation from reaching the earth.
That was before we had temperatures that we are living with now, so there was nothing to counter it.
So a good thing, at least we dodged that bullet.
This doesn’t even touch on the expansion of habitat for disease carrying vectors like mosquitoes and ticks. Warming climate sends them further north, creating hazards deadly and unfamiliar to the northern masses.
Someone get some Otter Pops to Wenatchee ASAP.
It's hot out there.. How hot?
It's hotter than 1980's Madonna.
Hotter than Satan's jockstrap.
They just showed the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" again here. I hope what's happening isn't a harbinger of what's to come, and as in the movie, a lot sooner than originally predicted.
Yeah, just watched that movie again myself. Did you know that that movie was based on a false assumption? It all centers around the mammoth found preserved with food in it's mouth making the scientists believe it was frozen instantly. So my first question was, since they were herding animals, where was the rest of the herd? Second question, the food contained flowers, which means summer, how could you get that much of a temperature drop with the sun almost constantly in the sky?
Yes that mammoth died from hypothermia but in an attempt to avoid drowning, it walked out onto a bog as it grazed and broke through, so it closed it's mouth and breathed through its trunk preventing it from swallowing and unable to climb out, succumbed to the cold water and sank to the bottom and over time covered with peat.
I guess my concern was based on my opinion that not only does Art Imitate Life, but I've pointed out many occasions where Life Imitates Art. Well, okay for your explanation, but I enjoyed watching the movie anyway - glad if it's not a harbinger. LOL
My neighbor stopped by to BS today, now that we have "cooled off" to 91 degrees. He is a die hard trump supporter. He is also a good person and certainly not an idiot. (Seriously, he even has a, "Hillary For Prison", sign in his garage.) Anyway...
Me: So, how about that global warming?
Him: Seriously? Whoever ever said global warming doesn't exist is a fucking moron.
Me: Man made even?
Him: Well, I would blame the cats but... Of course it's man made.
At least he has SOME common sense.
He does, he's turned into a very good friend too. We just both have an understanding that we will never agree on politics, so we tend to just avoid it.