Is a Civil War Ahead?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
www.newyorker.com /news/daily-comment/is-a-civil-war-ahead
Is a Civil War Ahead?
David Remnick 7-8 minutes 1/5/2022
The edifice of American exceptionalism has always wobbled on a shoddy foundation of self-delusion, and yet most Americans have readily accepted the commonplace that the United States is the world’s oldest continuous democracy. That serene assertion has now collapsed.
On January 6, 2021, when white supremacists, militia members, and MAGA faithful took inspiration from the President and stormed the Capitol in order to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential election, leaving legislators and the Vice-President essentially held hostage, we ceased to be a full democracy. Instead, we now inhabit a liminal status that scholars call “anocracy.” That is, for the first time in two hundred years, we are suspended between democracy and autocracy. And that sense of uncertainty radically heightens the likelihood of episodic bloodletting in America, and even the risk of civil war.
This is the compelling argument of “ How Civil Wars Start ,” a new book by Barbara F. Walter, a political scientist at the University of California San Diego. Walter served on an advisory committee to the C.I.A. called the Political Instability Task Force, which studies the roots of political violence in nations from Sri Lanka to the former Yugoslavia. Citing data compiled by the Center for Systemic Peace, which the task force uses to analyze political dynamics in foreign countries, Walter explains that the “honor” of being the oldest continuous democracy is now held by Switzerland, followed by New Zealand. In the U.S., encroaching instability and illiberal currents present a sad picture. As Walter writes, “We are no longer a peer to nations like Canada, Costa Rica, and Japan.”
In her book and in a conversation for this week’s New Yorker Radio Hour, Walter made it clear that she wanted to avoid “an exercise in fear-mongering”; she is wary of coming off as sensationalist. In fact, she takes pains to avoid overheated speculation and relays her warning about the potential for civil war in clinical terms. Yet, like those who spoke up clearly about the dangers of global warming decades ago, Walter delivers a grave message that we ignore at our peril. So much remains in flux. She is careful to say that a twenty-first-century American civil war would bear no resemblance to the consuming and symmetrical conflict that was played out on the battlefields of the eighteen-sixties. Instead she foresees, if the worst comes about, an era of scattered yet persistent acts of violence: bombings, political assassinations, destabilizing acts of asymmetric warfare carried out by extremist groups that have coalesced via social media. These are relatively small, loosely aligned collections of self-aggrandizing warriors who sometimes call themselves “accelerationists.” They have convinced themselves that the only way to hasten the toppling of an irredeemable, non-white, socialist republic is through violence and other extra-political means.
Walter makes the case that, as long as the country fails to fortify its democratic institutions, it will endure threats such as the one that opens her book: the attempt, in 2020, by a militia group in Michigan known as the Wolverine Watchmen to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The Watchmen despised Whitmer for having instituted anti- COVID measures in the state—restrictions that they saw not as attempts to protect the public health but as intolerable violations of their liberty. Trump’s publicly stated disdain for Whitmer could not have discouraged these maniacs. The F.B.I., fortunately, foiled the Wolverines, but, inevitably, if there are enough such plots—enough shots fired—some will find their target.
America has always suffered acts of political violence—the terrorism of the Klan; the 1921 massacre of the Black community in Tulsa; the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. Democracy has never been a settled, fully stable condition for all Americans, and yet the Trump era is distinguished by the consuming resentment of many right-wing, rural whites who fear being “replaced” by immigrants and people of color, as well as a Republican Party leadership that bows to its most autocratic demagogue and no longer seems willing to defend democratic values and institutions. Like other scholars, Walter points out that there have been early signs of the current insurgency, including the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, in 1995, which killed a hundred and sixty-eight people. But it was the election of Barack Obama that most vividly underlined the rise of a multiracial democracy and was taken as a threat by many white Americans who feared losing their majority status. Walter writes that there were roughly forty-three militia groups operating in the U.S. when Obama was elected, in 2008; three years later there were more than three hundred.
Walter has studied the preconditions of civil strife all over the world. And she says that, if we strip away our self-satisfaction and July 4th mythologies and review a realistic checklist, “assessing each of the conditions that make civil war likely,” we have to conclude that the United States “has entered very dangerous territory.” She is hardly alone in that conclusion. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance in Stockholm recently listed the U.S. as a “backsliding” democracy.
The backsliding was never more depressingly evident than in the weeks after January 6th, when Mitch McConnell, after initially criticizing Donald Trump ’s role in the insurrection, said that he would support him if he were the Party’s nominee in 2024. Having stared into the abyss, he pursued the darkness.
Not so long ago, Walter might have been considered an alarmist. In 2018, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt published their Trump-era study, “ How Democracies Die ,” one of many books that sought to awaken American readers to the reality that the rule of law was under assault just as it was in much of the world. But, as Levitsky told me, “Even we couldn’t have imagined January 6th.” Levitsky said that until he read Walter and other well-respected scholars on the subject, he would have thought that warnings of civil war were overwrought.
Unlike Russia or Turkey, the United States is blessed with a deep experience of democratic rule, no matter how flawed. The courts, the Democratic Party, local election officials in both parties, the military, the media—no matter how deeply flawed—proved in 2020 that it was possible to resist the darkest ambitions of an autocratic President. The guardrails of democracy and stability are hardly unassailable, but they are stronger than anything that Vladimir Putin or Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan has to contend with. In fact, in his attempt to be reëlected, Trump did draw the largest Republican vote ever—and he still lost by seven million votes. That, too, stands in the way of fatalism.
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Blame it all on the replacement theory and white grievance. Some people think it isnt clear yet, but it will be.
White grievance? Translation: Poor white folks conveniently angered by rich white folks who more conveniently point the blame at those not responsible.
Well, let's just say that the bulk of Trump's supporters "aren't exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer":
Neither is their leader.
But conservatives insist the folk in this video don't exist among them and there's just a handful of kooks on the fringe that believe in Qanon conspiracy theories, so this must be a 'deep fake' with green screens and CGI to fit the leftist 'strawman' mischaracterization of good, kind, intelligent right wing conservative Christians... /s
Lol ....keep underestimating people who are simply not of like mind with you. I love it!
So, Sparty, did Trump lose in 2020 by 7 million votes or did Trump "win by a landslide"?
Do you believe Trump's "big lie"?
Or do believe that Trump is a big liar?
Asking for a friend.
What, exactly, do you love ❤ about it?
Self explanatory to most .....
I have to admit it-- I didn't even know what "replacement theory" was until see the coverage of White Supremists during the C'villy rally. (In fact i hadn't even heard the term before that).
‘Jews will not replace us’: Why white supremacists go after Jews
Several hundred white nationalists and white supremacists carrying torches march in a parade at the University of Virginia.
Jews and non-Jews are drawn to debates about whether Jews are white. It’s the sort of question that captivates academics and activists, roping in everyone from Israeli “Wonder Woman” actress Gal Gadot to African American literary luminary James Baldwin .
On the one hand, Jews have been discriminated against for centuries, including by white cultures from Nazi Germany to the United States. On the other, many Jews have attained a significant measure of acceptance, and many can often “pass” as white when not wearing traditional Jewish symbols.
Implicitly at stake in this argument is whether efforts to combat racism should prioritize prejudice against Jews or whether other persecuted populations should take precedence.
Personally, I’ve found this debate beside the point, and this weekend’s disturbing events in Charlottesville perfectly illustrate why: The white supremacists have already made their decision.
When white nationalists descended upon the historic Virginia city to protest the removal of a statue of Confederate general Robert E. Lee, their “Unite the Right” rally gathered a veritable who’s who of top neo-Nazis in the United States, including Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke and alt-right leading light Richard Spencer, among others.
They immediately went after the Jews. At their Friday night rally at the University of Virginia, the white nationalists brandished torches and chanted anti-Semitic and Nazi slogans, including “blood and soil” (an English rendering of the Nazi “blut und boden”) and “Jews will not replace us” — all crafted to cast Jews as foreign interlopers who need to be expunged.
The attendees proudly displayed giant swastikas and wore shirts emblazoned with quotes from Adolf Hitler. One banner read, “Jews are Satan’s children.”
“The truth is,” Duke told a large crowd Saturday, “the American media, and the American political system, and the American Federal Reserve, is dominated by a tiny minority: the Jewish Zionist cause.” Addressing another group, Richard Spencer mocked Charlottesville’s Jewish mayor, Mike Signer. “Little Mayor Signer — ‘See-ner’ — how do you pronounce this little creep’s name?” Spencer asked. The crowd responded by chanting, “Jew, Jew, Jew.” In TV interviews, attendees were not shy about their anti-Semitism.
Some of the videos edited that out, but there are some where you can hear them chanting "Jews Will Not Replace Us".
What is it with liberals/progressives and all this talk of civil war?
It is the Magats who love to talk about civil war.
Here is one of Trump's Jan. 6th terrorists wearing the Civil War shirt he had made in advance (which proves the insurrection was planned).
You liked that?
Here's his buddies at the Jan 6th insurrection.
It was planned in far enough in advance to have their Jan 6th Civil War sweatshirts made.
Please don't tell him!
Don't you see-- his seemingly innocent question..its a trap!
(Remember, "What happens in Langley ,,stays in Langley!)
Especially within the confines of the dreaded Sector 4013-9, Dept DORD*, Room no. t9941-05.
ALL FOR ONE..AND ONE FOR ALL!
(Honi soit qui mal y pense!)
___________________________________
*DORD == "The Department of Redundency Department"
meh, I'm not worried, because I know most of these loud mouthed right wing revolutionaries are relics long past their expiration dates that cannot fight a war of insurgency. I was given a .22 when I was 8 years old and I spent my summers on my grandfather's cattle ranch turning pasture vermin into compost with my cousins. in the last 12 years I've probably been to pistol ranges over 500 times with the last 2 years concentrating on regaining my ambidextrous ability that I thought I had lost 30 years ago due to a work accident. I'm ready for the unamerican trump traitors should they ever move beyond their cowardly bluster, and from what I've observed, they won't need to be led by much and they're a lot bigger than prairie dogs.
Pack a lunch dev, pack a lunch
Those prairie dogs ever shoot back?
[removed]
they never had a chance to swing up their AR's...
that's funny, got any pictures of a magatard with a crater where his forehead used to be?
No, do you?.....
Another American Civil War?
I hardly think so. Combat for Trump? You got to be kidding. 'The Mar-a-Lago flim flam man' has flimmed his last flam. He has court dates in his future and Americans don't like a whiner and a cry baby.
So does that mean he may now be considered to be totally in-flam-able?
I don’t know about full blown civil war, but I can envision assassination attempts and a serious uptick in cowardly domestic terrorism as a response to future Republican defeats.
That will be all 'The MAGA' has left.
Well, let's hope no one attempts to assassinate the ex-president.
(Of course now that he's ex-president it actually wouldn't be all that hard to do....so let's pray he remains safe!)
Well, anyone remember this?
(Its satire by Trevor Moore and his comedy/satire group called "The Whitest Boys U Know")
The Whitest Kids U'Know Sketch for "I Want To Kill The President" from Season 1.
I first saw that long ago when GWBush was president. The video was highly popular,,, in certain dark corners of the Internet.
Then Obama became president, abd its poularity declined significantly...
I love WKUK. RIP Trevor.
If Trump we’re assassinated it would likely be by a former supporter infuriated by his vaccine comments. Chances are they would have some kind of Christian iconography tattooed on them as well.
I agree. if trump gets clipped, it will be by a disgruntled former supporter. zero loss to america.
It might even be Alex Jones on the trigger.
How would storming the Capitol change the outcome of the election? The only way storming the Capitol would succeed is Congress already having the ability to overturn an election. The whole narrative depends upon the idea that Joe Biden could not have been inaugurated without Congressional certification of the election.
As far as a civil war goes, we're already in the midst of a civil war. Cities refusing to enforce Federal laws and refusing to cooperate with the Federal government is tacit secession. States and cities are already challenging the authority and legitimacy of the Federal government. That started in Democratic controlled states and has begun to snowball out of control.
It seems to me that if there is a civil war it will be because the media is pushing for one.
It seems to me that if there is a civil war it will be because the media is pushing for one.
Well, actually that's not surprising in the least!
"The media"?
Just curious-- do you really believe that Fox news is not considered to be "media"?
(or are you just pretending???)
Yes. Some of 'the media' is reporting on the possibility and some of 'the media' is pushing the probabilities.
Yes, the media. Specifically, the news media, which I presumed would not be necessary to point out.
Just curious-- have you stopped beating your wife yet?
If that question is too subtle a point for you, I'm pointing out that your question is what's called a loaded question.
Just curious-- have you stopped beating your wife yet?
Why no-- I'm still at it-- with both of them.
All the more intensely with time!
P.S: Your analogy is waaay off-- that not the correct analogy.
Why? Because "Have you stopped beating your wife" is a "trick question" however you answer you look bad.
HOWEVER: If you say that yes of course, you know Fox news is "the media" you don't look bad-- its a simple matter of fact, not judgement. Its not a loaded question in the least!
So it's not a loaded Q, & doesn't make you look bad.
(However the other answer-- that you believe Fox is not media-- is a bit silly.
Capice?
Try looking up "What is a loaded question." I even typed the question for you so you can copy and paste it.
I'm guessing you don't listen to that much rwnj radio, with the majority of those network/affiliates owned by religious wackos.
No, I don't listen to them.
"Keep your friends close. Keep your enemies closer." Vito Corleone.
Because there's a rather unusual law (still on the books) that the election results have to e officially certified on Jan 6th.-- that was the ritual led by the Vice President (in this case it was Mike Pence). Trump and his ass-lickers were hoping that by storming the capitol they could forceably interrupt that.
In fact, because it was a the duty of the Vice-President to lead the official tally. In addition to violently assaulted police officers, may of them were chanting ""Hang Mike Pence"-- and even erected a gallows out side!
Trump defended Jan. 6 Capitol rioters chanting ‘hang Mike Pence,’ called anger over Biden election result ‘common sense’
So Congress really does have the ability to overturn an election? Doesn't that mean a President-elect must receive the approval of Congress before being inaugurated?
It would seem that eliminating Congressional ability to interfere in elections should be a higher priority than eliminating the Electoral College.
This is not interference, this is part of the constitutional process. And if you think this is interference then you must think that Congress should not make laws either. Congress was elected to do these kinds of things.
Ultimately, when things go wrong, our system typically empowers the legislative branch (federal and state levels) to take corrective actions.
You totally missed the point!
(Or was it intentional? I'd like to think not...)
So, we're a Constitutional Republic and not a democracy? Why doesn't the political party in power understand that?
We're being spoon fed a lot of predigested political pabulum about threats to our democracy. And we're told that mere common people interfering with Congressional authority over elections is a threat to that democracy. Whose democracy is it, anyway? Is it a democracy of the people - or - is it a democracy of those in political power?
What is the place of common people in our democracy?
We are a federated constitutional Republic based on indirect democracy. We are both a Republic AND a Democracy. The very meaning of the word Republic designates indirect democracy:
This truly pointless ' debate ' between the right and the left has gone on for as long as I have been on social media. It is stupid. We are both. People need to move on.
Common people elect representatives.
I pretty much agree with everything you said , except what to call it , federated constitutional republic?
dont know bout dat...
If i had to choose something that actually describes the form of government , i would say a constitutional representative republic , but thats just being nit picky really .
My reasoning is that the constitutional part not only sets up how the government is comprised , but it also limits ( prohibits? ) to a point what the federal entity can do , the representative part is self explanatory , and uses the democratic method of voting to choose those representatives by both population and state jurisdiction as set by the constitution .
as for republic , i have nothing more than what you already posited , because the ultimate power does rest with the people , exersized by whom they elect to represent their specific jurisdictions . now whether or not they are paying attention , is another matter .
We have a President telling us our democracy is under threat and who is promising to use Presidential authority to defend our democracy. We have a Congress telling us legislation must be enacted to protect our democracy. Political leaders are using the narrative of a 'threat to democracy' as justification for imposing laws and specific requirements onto the country as a whole.
That's quite a bit more than a debate. Whose democracy will be protected by that authoritarian approach?
If elected representatives have authority over the election process then why would that be considered democracy? Whose democracy are we really talking about? Is the political narrative about the democracy of voters or is the narrative about the democracy of elected representatives?
Actually, I should have used the more common word of 'federal' rather than 'federated'. But same concept.
The reason for the federal part is that our nation is a federation of states; not simply a single state.
We agree on the constitutional part. The 'representative Republic' is redundant given the meaning of the word Republic.
Are you questioning if ours is a Democracy? If so, see the comment you replied to. If not, I do not know what you are asking.
Depends on the specifics of the 'authority'. If they can freely overrule the demos votes then that violates the concept of democracy. If they have the constitutional authority to deal with specific electoral problems then that does not ipso facto mean a violation of democracy.
The details matter.
Vladimir Putin is an elected official. Xi Jinping is an elected official. Kim Jong-un is an elected official. Ayatollah Khamanei is an elected official.
The detail that is being overlooked are the restrictions, limits, and control over who is allowed on the ballot. What we are seeing is emergence of a more authoritarian democracy in the United States. Elected representatives are trying to exert greater control over who is allowed on the ballot. Election results are being declared a mandate for those who were allowed on the ballot by an undemocratic process.
So, I ask again, whose democracy is being threatened? Whose democracy has the President promised to defend? Whose democracy is Congress trying to protect with new laws and requirements?
Nope.
So?
Nothing new there. Been going on since before we were born. Our system is imperfect.
You are essentially trying to declare we do not have a democracy. The fact that our system is imperfect, and has been, does not mean we do not have a democracy.
When we get to the point where demos votes do not matter then make the case that we do not have a democracy.
Nope.
See comment # 4. 2 for the actual facts!
(The "true facts"-- not the "alternative facts"....
Reading your comments reminds me of the way Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz interact,Veeery similar style of discussing things!
If that's nor to clear, here is a vivid example (Note to people here who don't watch posted videos-- this one is worth watching--trust me!)
Tucker presses Ted Cruz for using this term
Have the Democrats done anything, in your mind, to undermine Democracy in the last 30 years? Or is everything always the Republicans fault?
Yeah. Keeping Social Security and Medicare solvent while trying to protect air, water, natural resources and protecting the right to vote.
GOP does none of those except move the nations wealth into the control of an ever shrinking minority.
Excellent summary of what the current GOP is doing!
(Well, there are a few exceptions, but they are a tiny minority in today's Republican Party
Well, there are probably some here who aren't quite sure what a "derail by whaddaboudism" is yet..or aren't yet quite sure how to recognize one.
But the more people use that sleazy tactic...the more they will realize, over time, what 's attempting to be done.
They're very clever about it, too.
Nobody would ever know they've put a gun to your head and forced you to buy shit from Amazon, post about it on Facebook, bitch about them on Twitter, and have Siri start a Google search on "how to be anti-racist" while driving your Tesla.
[Deleted]
I'll wear the flag I'm about to receive with pride. An American badge of honor against the corpulant right wing Putin boot shiners.
True dat!
But they're very cle ver in how they do it.
A lack of any moral virtues-- but clever at conning people.
For those that may be wondering what a "derail by 'Whaddaboutism'" is-- that's a perfect example!
Please stick to the topic-- if you don't like the way the conversation is going, it would really be helpful to stick to the topic reather than try to derail...!
Such an obvious attempt really...and it doesn't add anything to the quality of NT,!
Examples?
(Now I'm playing the "calling your bluff" card, LOL!
)
What a bizarre question!
C'mon Sean-- get serious!
President Biden speaks on the anniversary of January 6, 2021.
And the Emmy goes to ......
Excellent comment al Jizzerror!
The event that triggered the first Civil War was when the first shots were fired at Fort Sumter in Charleston Bay on April 12, 1861
The event that triggered the Second Civil War was when Trump sent his stooges to prevent Pence and Congress from ratifying the vote of the Electoral College on January 6th, 2021. That was part of Trump's first coup attempt. Trump is still firing up his stooges to attempt a second coup. Anyone who participates in a Trump inspired coup is committing SEDITION.
Ever read The Handmaid's Tale? America fell when a group of so-called patriots stormed Congress in session and murdered everyone there. Doubt if that would happen today but...
Anyway, that was the beginning. Then Americans took to chucking nukes at each other. Eventually the USA was no longer
I have and I’ve also read novels like 1984, Brave New World, Fahrenheit 451, etc, etc.
Take your pick which novel we are closer to as governments work to restrict individual freedoms almost daily in these times......
Take your pick which novel we are closer to as governments work to restrict individual freedoms almost daily in these times......
Lol .... do you need a safe space to contemplate the ridiculousness of that sign .....
Whoa...wait a minute. Please explain what you mean by implying that NT is not a "safe space"?
Whoa nelly ..... I’m glad you feel safe here ...... super happy
Maybe he should go back to his mom's basement with his Trumpy Bear and his my pillow to feel safe.
If his followers want to bring a knife to a gun fight, then they will reap what they sow. There are still thousands of body bags in storage left over from Desert Storm.
Interesting fantasy. You might be surprised what most US military warriors think of that fantasy. Unpleasantly surprised ...