US coronavirus: Pinning hopes on vaccine is not the right strategy, expert says
By: Steve Almasy, Christina Maxouris and Holly Yan (CNN)
No magic bullets. In addition to the problems associated with developing a vaccine, deploying vaccines will add more delays. And there aren't any guarantees that immunity provided by vaccines will last very long. The consistent message from expert advisors is that we are still in the very early stages of the pandemic.
An interesting trend has been popping up in warnings from expert advisors. 'Bars' has become a dog whistle for imposing behavior modification onto society. The expert advisors have adopted the sentiment that government controlled social engineering provides the only viable means for controlling spread of the coronavirus.
That authoritarian approach is being reinforced by failure of governments to provide the public the means for controlling spread of the virus. The Federal government is buying hundreds of millions of doses of vaccines in hopes of a magic bullet. Governments are placing great hope in expanded testing as a means for contract tracing and imposing social restrictions on individuals. Governments are closing businesses and selectively restricting social gatherings. Governments have adopted authoritarian social engineering practices advocated by expert advisors.
Yet governments are not distributing face masks, soaps, or disinfectants. Governments are not providing information on how to properly use face masks, soaps, or disinfectants. Governments have not been educating the public or providing information and tools that would allow the public to effectively control spread of the virus. Governments have refused to assist the public with the means that would allow the public to modify its own behavior. Every person in the United States could be provided a face mask for $2 billion (that's about $6 for each mask). Every household could be provided soap and disinfectant for about the same amount of money.
Governments have ignored the cheapest and most effective means of controlling spread of the virus so as to pursue authoritarian social engineering recommended by expert advisors.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
As cases continue to rise, Americans looking to a vaccine as the way out of the coronavirus pandemic should consider a more comprehensive approach, a leading medical expert told CNN on Wednesday.
"Pinning all our hopes on a vaccine that works immediately is not the right strategy," Dr. William Haseltine, a former professor at Harvard University's medical and public health schools, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer.
Haseltine said a broad public health strategy is a better way to contain the spread of the virus along with the help of a vaccine and therapeutic drugs. Mandating masks will help but Haseltine said, "we need a lot more than masks to contain this epidemic that's running through our country like a freight train."
Haseltine recommended closing bars and other places where young people congregate at night and ban holding large meetings in the worst-hit regions. Life won't get better until people make major changes to their behavior and public health services come forward with more resources, he said.
He said a vaccine is still six months away at the earliest and he warned not to underestimate a coronavirus. Haseltine, known for his work on fighting cancer and HIV/AIDS, said it won't be easy to develop a vaccine.
"These are tricky viruses," he said. "It's not as simple as measles or mumps. It's going to be a lot more complicated"
Any Covid-19 vaccine that's sponsored by the US government will be free or affordable for the American public, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told CNBC on Wednesday.
"For any vaccine that we have bought -- so for instance the Pfizer vaccine -- those hundred million doses would actually be acquired by the US government, then given for free to Americans," Azar said. He said the same would apply with the AstraZeneca and the Novovax vaccines.
"We will ensure that any vaccine that we're involved in sponsoring is either free to the American people or is affordable," Azar said.
And while some anti-mask protesters refuse to wear a piece of cloth to help save American lives, enormous signs of altruism have emerged. More than 100,000 people have volunteered to participate in Covid-19 vaccine clinical trials, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "I think we'll be fine with regards to getting enough people," Fauci said during a webinar Wednesday with the TB Alliance.
Why do expert advisors seem to always advocate government controlled social engineering? Common sense suggests that the cheapest and most effective means for controlling the spread of the virus would be to educate the public and provide the means for the public to control spread of the virus.
Unfortunately, with the public, common sense seems to not exist for a substantial minority of them. Because that minority endangers the others, they cannot be given complete freedom in regards to this. The old, "a few bad apples spoil the barrel", saying.
Non-government control is what lead to current COVID problems with Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California. It is incidents like this that require consistent federal oversight and recommendations to protect its citizens. Other countries have shown that if this had been handled correctly with government mandates, we would be almost done with COVID right now, and the country would be able to safely reopen and resume with slightly altered business practices.
Unfortunately, common sense suggests that when someone begins fear mongering they are really pursuing a different agenda. The public is too savvy about how politics works to just accept dire predictions at face value.
How many face masks have governments provided the public? How much soap and disinfectant has been distributed?
Everyone focuses attention on the authoritarian mandates imposes by other countries. But there hasn't been any information published about whether or not those foreign governments educated the public and distributed the means for the public to control spread of the virus.
There really is a difference between requiring the public to obtain the means to comply with a mandate - or - mandating that the public utilize what the government has provided.
I suspect that anyone who feels the need to wear a mask already does so. They aren't all the expensive and neither is soap and disinfectants.
Common sense though, has been in very short supply. I can't count on the government to protect me or supply my needs, nor would I want it to.
OK problem number 1, it is not a flu. The flu is a very specific virus as is COVID. They are not interchangeable in name or effect.
No it is not. The average flu kills about 40-60K Americans in a year. This has killed over 140,000 in 5 months. If we keep at this pace, we ill exceed the annual flu deaths 4X.
Wrong. What the mask does is inhibit the spread of the virus, when everyone does it. I even posted an actual video of how this is done. If you need the link I will provide it.
That is what the Swedes thought and it didn't work out and they had to change to our model of handling the disease.
Johns Hopkins is the center that is keeping track of new cases, not the media. They just report what Hopkins is posting. Here is their link:
140,000+ US citizens dead. What "fear mongering" are you complaining about?
Why would the federal government issue face masks, when until very recently POTUS claimed they weren't needed? HE controlls distribution of PPE.
How the Trump administration has stood in the way of PPE distribution
The government is distributing emergency Covid-19 supplies. But some states are losing out.
Florida has received all the supplies it has asked for. But most states haven’t.
States still baffled over how to get coronavirus supplies from Trump
The problem is when supply does not allow the public to obtain the means to comply with a mandate, or there is no mandate at all.
The CDC has offered recommendations, that's all they can do. Trump can take those recommendations and turn them into a mandate, but he has not only chosen not to do so, he has actually undercut those recommendations.
Let's crunch the numbers, shall we?
Population of the US = 331,002,651 roughly
Because of US geography, roughly 70% would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity .
231,701,856 would need to be infected.
Mortality rate of COVID-19 = 2.8 roughly
6,487,652 deaths to achieve herd immunity.
So you support sacrificing over 6 million people.
I don't think this is a true apples to apples comparison however. How many Americans get their annual flu shot which lessens the impact of the flu and how many Americans would die from the flu if there was no flu shot?
Yes it really does inhibit it. I do wish we had a national mandate but we don't. Early on even Dr Fauci did not recommend everybody wear masks. He later said it was because the U.S. didn't have enough masks for the need. After all, the supply chain has for years moved into an 'on-demand' type model and there just isn't factories sitting around ready to create masks that are idle but ready. It takes time to build up the supply chain. And as so many businesses did, they moved manufacturing to areas of the globe where costs were less. And in a world-wide pandemic those countries where the supply chain began were more interested in insuring they kept that PPE within their borders for their needs rather than ship it all over the world.
IMO we cannot just lock down the country, people need to be able to feed themselves and pay their bills. Also standing in the way of a total lock down is that pesky little thing called the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. I think they are trying to do the right things and protect the most vulnerable and develop better ways to treat the sick (as can be seen by the dropping death counts) but we have had too many people who refuse to think far beyond their actions so we have high rates of infection.
It would still be less. Every year (it seems) we get flu shots only to read a few months later the the vaccine we were given was for the wrong flu. Also, on the average only 45.3% of Americans get a flu shot.
You are correct, no vaccine would mean more deaths, but nowhere near the numbers we are seeing with COVID.
maybe it would be less, maybe it would be more. At this point we just don't know. And the majority of people who do get the annual flu shot do so because they are at higher risk of complications from the flu. Just like this Covid-19, there is a segment of the population that doesn't suffer the effects as bad and have a greater chance of survival, and there is a segment of the population that is at higher risk. If the higher risk group did not have the flu shot how bad would it be? We really don't know.
All I was really trying to say however is that I didn't feel like what Perrie was trying to compare was not a true apples to applies comparison.
I disagree with your assessments
The death rate is around 1% or less. You're talking about total numbers.
If masks and distancing are so effective, why the uptick in cases.
I'm assuming that most of the population knows what precautions to take and does so.
Your figures and assumptions are totally faulty.
Not in my experience. The "muh rights" crowd refuses to mask, and some have even resorted to violence or threats of violence.
Also...making the pandemic political by mindlessly blaming supply problems and distribution issues entirely on Trump is just hypocritical and is not helping the situation.
The Dems have shot their wad once again and come up empty.
The numbers of that "crowd" is miniscule and doesn't account for the increase in cases. I could just as easily say
that the "my rights" to unpeacefully protest and riot is causing the uptick. We do know that that crowd has been shown to have
resorted to violence, arson, thievery, assault, and even murder on several occasions.
Not from what I'm seeing.
Every time I go to Walmart or Food Lion, about half of the customers, or fewer, are wearing masks. Workers wear masks, but probably 20% or so wear them under their noses, not covering them.
The "public" has been educated with fearmongering. Fear of communism, fear of socialism, fear of racism, fear of socialism, fear of the right, fear of the left, fear of the devil, fear of the god, fear of Armageddon, fear of almost everything in or out of existence.
There is only so much "fear" that anyone can deal with. The coronavirus may be viewed in the same context as global warming by some people regardless of what is said by anyone.
Personally, I am taking this virus very seriously. I have seen shipping fever go through young healthy cattle and kill up to 25 percent and leave the survivors with severe lung damage. I know it is a possibility to have a similar virus do the same to our species. To date, this virus has not shown to have this level of lethality so this could be an excellent opportunity to study possible societal responses and consequences of a national lockdown before something far worse comes along... and it will.
Yep, that's a big problem. Second verse is same as the first. It's the same song, different dance. Another day, another dire prediction.
If every problem is going to be the end of the world then all the problems are the same. Thousands of top priorities becomes business as usual; it's just another day in America. The coronavirus is competing with so many other dire threats that it really isn't more important than anything else.
Society isn't being allowed to respond; the public is being treated like cattle. The testing stations really are very much like cattle chutes. Governments are cutting out the cattle that behave funny. And governments really are sending some to be turned into hamburger; particularly small business owners and their workers. We really are being treated as a herd of dumb beasts.
You know, someone can drive cattle with prods and whips - or - someone can lead cattle with hay and feed. But that really doesn't tell us very much about the cattle.
Water rises to its own level.
I admire your optimism that an informed population will make reasonable health decisions that will serve to protect not only themselves but society as a whole.
I fear I cannot share your optimism.
On the other hand I have an awkward libertarian streak that crops up on alternate Thursdays that makes it impossible to suggest that we mandate vaccination. Masks - yes I can go that far. My libertarian streak goes away when I hit my first pothole - then I want the government to fix it.
I'll let you research your own polls but it looks like only about one half of the adult population is willing, at this time, to take a vaccine when it is available. Perhaps 25% say they will not be vaccinated. (Note, those who are opposed to any vaccinations for anything are probably between 7-10%) It's also probable that any Covid vaccine will be about 70% effective like other flu type vaccines. If I'm thinking correctly, 50%*70% should give about 35% of the population protection from Covid which should help but is a long ways from "herd immunity".
I admit, my preference would be for politicians to line up on TV and take the shot first. I would then wait a couple of weeks for my own vaccination.
Vaccination rates, last year, for the seasonal flu were about 45% for a vaccine that was about 70% effective.
So, yes, educate the public, and through example by politicians, encourage them to be vaccinated when it is available. Also, through education, encourage hand washing, since I'm not interested in calling up the National Guard to monitor personal hygiene in public restrooms.
Require, at the Federal level the wearing of masks, and social distancing because it is provided for in the Constitution "promote the general Welfare" which I propose trumps "the blessings of Liberty". This gives Republican governors political cover. I'm willing to help them out to reduce death and suffering.
About vaccines, please take into account that COVID is an opportunistic disease. Once flu season starts up, people better get their flu shots, because if you get the flu, and then COVID, I would say your chances of surviving have been markedly decreased. This is also the fear of the CDC.
There are 4 vaccines out there that look good to varying degrees. The best one not only produces antibodies but also T cells. I am not sure all of them are doing the T cells. I hope that we don't go for the first one to come along, but the best one. Who knows?
I don't have a choice on getting any vaccine. I have to get all my shots to work here. Not that I complain about it. I would rather get stuck with a needle a dozen times than end up in the ICU with a ventilator tube down my throat
It's an optimism supported by history. The American people are unusually independent minded. In the United States, the government has always been viewed as a tool and the public argues over how that tool should be used. Political factions within the United States attempt to obtain control over government to impose their ideas about what should be done onto the country. Don't overlook that those ideas originated with the public; government in the United States doesn't have any sort of divine authority.
The need for polls is because the American people are independent minded. The United States doesn't have a history of traditional authority as does Europe and the United States does not have a history of cultural conformity as does Asia.
I, too, will likely wait awhile to see how people respond to the vaccine. Free range science in pursuit of profits has screwed up too many times to deserve trust. Most flu vaccines are around 30 pct effective but that is because viruses causing influenza mutate so quickly. There are a large number of strains of influenza virus circulating in the human population. In my case, I typically have an adverse reaction to flu vaccines so tend to wait as long as possible.
Vaccination really is key to controlling the pandemic. But vaccines won't be a magic bullet, either. It's becoming clear that the coronavirus isn't like other pathogens that can be eliminated by vaccination.
The Federal government can achieve the same result through education and distribution of masks, soaps, and disinfectants. The requirement becomes to utilize what the government has provided. That approach would be cheaper, more efficient, and more effective than deploying some sort of enforcement and punishment.
Simply imposing regulations and laws without any education or assistance for compliance will only require using resources for enforcement/punishment and will become another gold mine for lawyers. That's an easy way for lawyer politicians to claim they've done something but that isn't an example of leadership.
Wearing a mask as a political prop doesn't help the public acquire masks; that only makes the public prey for profiteers. The government is requiring people to buy masks of unknown quality just to comply with the law. And improper use of a mask can actually increase the risk of becoming infected. A mask controls spread of the virus within the population. But to provide personal protection the mask must be used with soaps or disinfectants; otherwise people can become infected by putting on and taking off the mask.
The proper use of a face mask involves washing the hands before putting on the mask, washing the hands before taking off the mask, and washing the hands after taking off the mask. Not following those steps means the mask doesn't provide effective protection.
Do you really believe you could change the "me first" "I have my rights" "freedom comes first" culture overnight? Along with totally alternating advice and a pandora's box of governmental requirements, there ain't no way the Trump virus is going to end soon, and whlle we wait, the numbers are increasing exponentially. However, don't worry, there'll be an antivirus next year, if anyone is left alive by then. Trump, in his desperate realization that his negligent mishandling and unbelievably poor example for his countrymen to follow is more than likely to get him booted out of the White House, he has now found it necessary to pile even more blame and accusations on China to deflect the attention of the American people in the hopes of getting re-elected. I can't believe, I REFUSE to believe, that the American people are that stupid that they can't see through what he's doing.
Nice attempt to try to divert attention away from China and their responsibility for unleashing it in the 1st place and then deliberately spreading it around the world so that we’d all have to share their pain and then since it hit them first they’d recover first and hope to emerge from the ruins they caused as the most powerful economy standing... creating and spreading, then hoarding supplies, then bullying all their neighbors. How many more pandemics from unsafe consumption of exotic animals to lab events accidental or deliberate is that culture going to inflict upon the rest of the world. Trump virus? What a croc of CCP propaganda. Fortunately all five of the English speaking democracies, the five eyes along with SE Asia, Japan, India, Israel, and the EU are all united against China on the pandemic, the response to it, and isolating Chinese tech from the civilized world.
Hasn't changed since the country was founded. Don't you understand why the Revolutionary War was fought? That's why European authoritarian remedies have never worked in the United States. That's why the United States will never be led by a Mao Tse Tung, either.
And what government requirements has the Trump administration imposed on the United States? You can't blame Trump for failing to lead and then accuse Trump of imposing totalitarian authority onto the public. That double speak might work in China since the government controls everything - but - that flight of delusion get off the ground in the United States.
China gifted the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the world. China isn't a victim in this story. Xi Jinping has been trying to blame everyone to avoid scrutiny of the Chinese government.
Trump's political opponent will repeat Xi Jinping's fictions to win the election, too. Joe Biden will likely tell the American people that we need China. But that is just another political lie. The relationship between the United States and China has been irreparably damaged because of what China unleashed on the world. We are living a new normal because of China. And empty political promises won't allow us to go back to the old normal.
China screwed its own pooch.
There appears to be some evidence that the virus started in European countries earlier than in China - nobody is absolutely sure yet. Yes, China was able to do a very good job of containing the virus, as did Vietnam, New Zealand, and even Taiwan - any idea why? Yes, Trump virus, because had he not ignored the first warnings, not dreamed there would be a miracle and the virus would disappear like magic, and been a competent leader, America could have contained the virus as well, but the massive proliferation in America is not China's fault, it's Trump's fault, and so the virus in America is rightly called - TRUMP VIRUS.
I guess I spoke too soon.
Yes, you spoke too soon. The argument is that the American people are too ignorant to understand a political ploy. But the argument, itself, displays a rather profound ignorance of Americans.
You see, most Americans do see what Trump is doing - and - understand why Trump is doing it. That's why Xi Jinping's juvenile attempt at playing American politics won't work. Americans are far more politically savvy than the Chinese people.
In case you haven't noticed, the United States has erupted in nationwide protests over Chinese style police abuses. The BLM protests have been completely political. BLM isn't trying to overthrow or take over the government; BLM is attempting to exert influence and control over politics. The protests have been directed toward obtaining a political response. And that political response will include a large amount of pandering.
The same is true for demands that the Federal government impose nationwide restrictions as a way to control spread of the virus China gifted to the world. The political response by local and state governments have been political pandering; the restrictions haven't really been designed or intended to accomplish anything meaningful. Politicians have explained from the beginning that the purpose of restrictions has been to protect hospitals by flattening the curve. If hospitals are overwhelmed then the politicians will be blamed for not doing enough. But flattening the curve won't prevent the same number of infections or the same number of deaths. Flattening the curve only prolongs the pandemic.
Social distancing and social isolation won't stop the pandemic. New York has detected 30,000 to 60,000 new infections over the last two months. And it's unknown how many infections were not detected. New York killed its economy to protect hospitals, not to stop the pandemic or protect the state's population. Gov. Cuomo only turned the pandemic into a type of Chinese water torture.
I don't believe Europeans dine on bats. And I doubt there are any food markets in Europe where it is necessary to sweep up animal poop.
The problem with wet markets is the animal excrement. Any pathogen infecting an animal ends up in the dung and urine. Sweeping up dried animal dung creates clouds of poop dust that is spread everywhere. Animals defecating and urinating also create aerosols that spread everywhere, too.
China is conducting research on bat viruses because bats are a food source. Chinese people eat bats. The United States and Europe also perform research on livestock diseases but bats are not livestock in the United States or Europe. Americans and Europeans are not in close contact with bats.
Trying to blame European countries for the pandemic defies common sense.
I guess I got fooled by the mainstream media...
Coronavirus: 'Strange Pneumonia' Seen In Lombardy In ...
A “strange pneumonia” was circulating in northern Italy as long ago as November , weeks before doctors were made aware of the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, one of the European country’s...
Coronavirus May Have Started Spreading As Early As ...
Apr 18, 2020 · The coronavirus may have started spreading as early as mid-September and Wuhan may not have been where the pandemic started , British scientists believe.
[deleted] is the reason the rest of the world's people have to endure this pandemic to begin with. The did absolutely nothing for the first few weeks to contain its spread...they even denied its existence and locked up medical experts who tried to spread the word of its potency. Blaming Trump for telling the truth is worst stage of denial. I would expect better than trying to shift blame.
Trump exceeds all others in that technique.
Well, at least the Chinese government is not so stupid and incompetent as to not know the difference between "to" and "too".
Link?
Maybe he took a poll....
Sausage?
Everyone understood the political motivations behind the House investigations, too.
The CCP has been contained to China; as the coronavirus should have been.
China is highly nationalist, imposes severe restrictions on democracy, denies individual freedoms for the good of the state, and deals harshly with dissent. It's a mistake to compare China to western democracies.
Don't know why you wasted your time replying to Freedom Warrior's ignorant hateful comment.
The paranoia about China and its supposed lack of freedom prevails...
I live in China and have the freedom to do absolutely anything and everything I need and want to do. My wife's extended family have and enjoy the freedom to do everything they need and want to do, and some have become very well off and all are happy with their lot - could it be that Chinese values are different from American ones? The fact that they do not have a vote is of no consequence to the Chinese people due to their "collective good" culture. They look with amazement at the vast political divide and mutual animosity of American people towards each other and shake their heads in bewilderment.
Chacun a son gout, Nerm_L. Chacun a son gout. Contrary to the intent of Americans, the people of the world really don't NEED to be like Americans and do as Americans do. Believe it or not, Nerm_L, there are cultures in the world far more ancient, and far less beligerant than yours.
The China virus is being used as a tool by blue city mayors and blue state governors to exert additional controls over the general population so that instead of them being our public servants they will that we become their subjects. Not going to happen. We aren’t going to allow what the Chinese Communist party used to assault the world to make us over in their image or yield our way of life to that forever enemy of the American people.
Politicians can impose all the regulations and pass all the laws they want. How is the public supposed to comply with those regulations and laws?
Mayors and governors view enforcement and punishment as a revenue stream. Local and state governments have a vested financial interest in noncompliance. Where do you think the money collected from fines go? Why do you think local and state governments makes compliance difficult?
Imposing nuisance regulations is another way to collect taxes.
I'm afraid it may be too late-- they already have!
As one of the wisest old members of NT recently put it-- in no uncertain terms (and I'm quoting here):
I live in Denver and Fox 31 has turned as far left as the rest of them ...
So if the eponymous foxes are guarding the proverbial henhouses-- I mean Fox News for Chrissakes!-- all hope is lost!
Well, refusal to wear a mask and refusal to observe social distancing definitely falls under the category of "educating the public"-- but obviously Trump's actions in this regard give the wrong kind of education (if ya catch my drift!
So does removing a mask when standing at the podium to recite political demagoguery. The 'believe the science' crowd has educated the public that it's okay to remove the mask to speak. But the science really does indicate that people should be wearing a mask when they speak. Spewing political hot air really does spread the virus; that's what the science says.
You do understand that the purpose of face masks is to control spread of the virus. The mask isn't intended to protect the wearer.
"For any vaccine that we have bought -- so for instance the Pfizer vaccine -- those hundred million doses would actually be acquired by the US government, then given for free to Americans," Azar said.
I just thought I would add to this little discussion that the Pfizer-BioNTech partnership is entering it's final phase of testing this month. In any event the pandemic will continue to be front page news for the next 3 months.
Wanna bet?
I say 6 months plus....
(Full disclosure: I own shares of Pfizer stock)
Disclaimer: Nothing in this comment (or any other) is meant to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities may result in the loss of some or all of your invested capital..)