Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Trump is in an electoral college bind. A map shows just how hard it will be for him to in in November.
If you do not like my map, you can create your own at 270toWin.
But before you create your own map or ridicule mine, you might wish to look at some current polls, state-by-state.
Pennsylvania
Florida
Michigan
Arizona
North Carolina
Crucial States for Trump
Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Even if Trump wins those states, if the above map holds, Trump loses in November.
Pennsylvania is Key
The biggest swing state in the above map is Pennsylvania with 20 Electoral College Votes.
Note that a Fox News poll conducted April 18-21 gives Biden an 8-point lead.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can still lose Virginia and all the states I marked as tossups and still win (270 on the nose).
My map is actually generous to Trump. Mentally I have Florida as slightly leans Biden and Nevada as leans Biden.
Nevada
I discounted Nevada due to lack of recent polls.
If Biden were to win Nevada, then he could lose two out of three of (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) and all my tossup states provided the rest of my map held.
Virginia
Ohio and What We Don't Know
I rates Ohio as a tossup due to lack of polls. Ohio is crucial to Trump so mentally move that into his column if you prefer.
Without any polls I suspect Iowa may be in play. And if it turns into a rout, not exactly unlikely, even Texas could be in play for Biden.
Path to Victory
Biden has multiple paths to victory as described above, presuming he wins Pennsylvania which is now my base case.
Trump needs to win all the tossups AND two more states or Pennsylvania. He has an extremely narrow path to victory.
Liberate Michigan
Michigan
Note that Fox News gives Biden an 8-point lead in Michigan. This is despite (or because) of soaring Michigan unemployment, perhaps as high as 30%.
For details, please see For details, please see Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment.
Yet, Despite Massive Unemployment, Michigan Disagrees With Trump.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, has a Covid-19 approval rating of 57%. Liberate Michigan, Liberate Minnesota, and Liberate Virginia backfired.
I discussed the above Tweets in Huge Battle Over Covid-19 Tests and Trump's Liberation Tweets.
Words of Caution
It's not impossible for Trump to win in November, but it is difficult.
These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the recession.
But the election map, Trump's handing of Covid-19, the recession, and the thought of 4 more years of Trump to swing voters all weigh against Trump.
This is Not 2016
Finally, this is not 2016. Many swing voters gave Trump a nod in in 2016 simply because they despised Hillary.
Many of those same swing voters have had enough of Trump's divisive treatment of allies, his belittling of everyone but himself, and his handling of Covid-19.
Mish
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We are getting closer to being rid of this plague.
Hallelujah! I can’t wait till we get back to the days of establishment pols bending us over. Nato, put your pocketbooks away, the American tax payer will cover you. Any country out there looking for a trade deal that favors you and screws the US? Get your pens out.
and i know the economy was roaring like it hasn’t roared in decades, but who cares? And unemployment rates for minorities were the lowest they had ever been, but who cares, they’re just minorities. I can’t wait till we open up the borders to anyone and everyone. That’ll be great for the average working man and woman, and minorities.
while we’re at it let’s change the motto on the statue of liberty to “hey world, give us your sick and we’ll give them free healthcare, courtesy of the American taxpayer.
yeah, it’ll be so great to have a person in the white house that has dementia. Maybe he can give the nation fireside chats, reminiscing about defeating the evil cornpop while little kids rub the fur on his legs.
Yeah, it’ll be great. 🙄
Trump's dementia isn't great when it comes to dealing with a pandemic. His arrogance and ignorance are also an issue. But his ego and narcissism are likely the reason the truth can't penetrate his bubble of bullshit.
He probably doesn't get his wife and sister mixed up either.
Sorry, but president Trump doesn’t have dementia, nor has he ever bragged about getting a prosecutor investigating his trash son fired. Nor has he ever reminisced about little kids stroking the fur on his legs.
You may not like the man but at least be honest and admit that he has done some really good things for this country that establishment types always talk about but never act on.
It always cracks me up when people talk about how much he lies. Unlike most politicians the man has no filter. He thinks it and it immediately come squirting out via his mouth or a tweet.
People might not like what he says but there is little to no political calculation or thought grooming done by his handlers. What you see is what you get.
Which is rare indeed for a politician.
I must admit my intentions were a bit sinister.
“What you see is what you get.“
He’s not a smooth, polished speaker that talks out his mouth and ass at the same time. That is one of the things i like about him. To hell with political correctness, call it like you see it.
We are getting closer to seeing Biden play on a stage.
Biden is strong in swing states Dems need to win...
What do the deaths in Vietnam and the dead from corona virus have in common? Trump didn't fight for any of them.
I find it disgusting that you want to use a democrat started war and the deaths brought on by that war as a comparison to a virus we knew almost nothing about 3 short month ago.
Polls and seeds like this are kind of funny. There's still six months between now and the election and the potential for way too much change to happen to try to see any outcome. All I know is there will be an election in November and the president will be sworn in on Jan 20th. Beyond that, just gonna wait and see what happens. All I know right now is I wish we had a better choice.
Love your last sentence!
thx... there are things I don't like about Trump and some things that he has done that I do like. I don't like most of what I know about Biden.
I feel like this is a repeat of 2016 and we will have to chose the less bad of the two. I sure do miss the days when we had someone to vote for rather than someone to vote against.
How do you like a pathological liar? There was a time, not that long ago , when such a person wouldnt even get their foot in the door.
Trump said again yesterday that the US has conducted more coronavirus tests than the rest of the world combined. That is absolutely false. Otherwise known as a lie. He has repeated this lie many times.
Why do you accept a president who can lie like that, every day?
Trump will NEVER be accepted by a majority of Americans. If he gets re-elected the next four years will be nothing but a repeat of the past four. People will be against Trump, and saying it every day, until he is gone. That is a 100% guarantee. It shouldnt have to be like that. He should be gone, as unfit for office. But there are too many Americans who accept all the bamboozling.
You mean like a guy who would plagiarize others work in law school, steal speeches from British politicians and falsely claim that members of his family were killed by a drunk driver?
Donald Trump lies many times EVERY DAY. It is not comparable to someone who plagiarized something 35 or 40 yearrs ago. [Deleted]
I did expect this type of reply from you. If someone isn't in lockstep with your ideas you tend to go off on a tangent. All I said was I like some of the things that he has done. That also means I don't like some of the other things that he has done.
why do you not seem to accept that other people can have other opinions. Why can't you respond to the last two sentences where I state this feels like a repeat of 2016 where all we have to choose from is the lesser of two evils? I don't like most of what I know about Biden so that sort of indicates where I will cast my vote. That doesn't mean I don't like some of the things that Trump has said or done, but to the balance sheet that I carry he still is above the choice of Biden for president.
I asked you a simple question. Why do you accept a pathological liar as president of the United States?
People like you act as if there might be some doubt about that. But there is no doubt.
As I have said many times, that is not my problem or the problem of other people who oppose Trump. That is the problem of the people who say they will vote for him again.
I’m getting deja vu all over again ....
that is your only hope.
Hardly but if that helps keep thinking it.
As we all know by now, polls have zero bearing on who is elected to the presidency and as we saw in 2016, the popular vote doesn't mean dick in the presidential elections. But, where the right got it wrong was when they said the polls were wrong. They weren't. They were shockingly close to spot on. They predicted Hillary would win the popular vote by roughly 4% and that's how much she won the popular vote by. Polls may not count for anything in a presidential election, but they are a good barometer for which way the nation is leaning.
Who was talking polls? Not me, nor the article really.
Few gave Trump a chance of winning the electoral college in 2016.
Here you go again ......
I have learned to never underestimate the stupidity of voters.
Hell, look at most of our elected officials...
Especially the Democrats.
It's April.....
You'd think people might remember 2016 when Hillary Clinton had a double digit lead.
This piece is seeded by the same guy that wrote at least 80 articles in October and November of 2016 saying Trump had no path to victory. On the morning of November 9, 2016, his house needed major remolding repairing all the holes he punched in the walls.