Are you panicking about the presidential race? If so, time to chill the f' out

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  john-russell  •  3 weeks ago  •  26 comments

By:   markos (Daily Kos)

Are you panicking about the presidential race? If so, time to chill the f' out
There’s another Democratic wave brewing this year, one that threatens to be even bigger than that of 2018.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


Once upon a time, some outlier poll came out saying that the presidential race had narrowed from a big Joe Biden lead to a slightly less big Joe Biden lead. It came after the Republican convention’s lie-fest, so people are particularly raw. And even though  other polls showed no difference , and the polling aggregate hasn’t moved, why consider such matters when there’s a good panic to be had, right? 

It’s bad enough that people are freaking out without any logical reason to do so, but it’s making everyone dispense advice to the Biden campaign about what they should  really  be doing to not lose, even though nothing suggests they’re losing. (Not in our reality, anyway. Can’t speak to Trump’s …)

One of my favorites is the demand that Biden head over to Kenosha, Wisconsin, and … do something. People think he’s Barack Obama, and not the guy who self-admits to being a “gaffe machine.” Really, the pandemic has allowed Biden and his campaign to lay low, mitigating his greatest weakness as a candidate. Why would people want him to burst out, and do so on the most fraught of issues, race? 

That said, if the campaign thinks it’s a good move, then great! It’s just that people are demanding he do things based on their own wishes and desires as opposed to that one singular question that needs to drive Biden’s campaign: What will improve his chance of victory? 

And the reality is this: Biden has the votes he needs. He just needs to not fuck it up. And while someone will bust out with the “prevent defense” analogy—an obnoxious and oftentimes disastrous strategy in American football to play conservatively in order to protect a late lead—this isn’t the Super Bowl we’re playing. This is an election, and here are the facts:  

Biden is leading in all the polls


Just look at   The Economist ’s plot graph   of the presidential polls: 


ScreenShot2020-08-31at8.20.56PM.png?1598930486

The aggregate gives Biden a 9 -point lead , and suggests what we ourselves are seeing in all our data at Civiqs—public opinion doesn’t change much. And this year? Who  doesn’t  have an opinion about Trump? You either love the guy or you’re counting down the seconds before you can vote against him. 

That’s a stable race. And if Biden was winning before the conventions, he’s winning after them. 

Of course, this isn’t a national election in the rational democratic sense, and we’ll talk more about that in a bit. But states don’t move independently of the national trends. We wouldn’t see Trump make (major) gains in Wisconsin while the national numbers stayed flat. A stable race is good news.  

Democrats are winning down-ballot races


There’s another Democratic wave brewing this year , one that threatens to be even bigger than that of 2018. You may be thinking, “So what? I’m worried about   Trump !” But here’s the thing: In our intensely polarized society, we are seeing fewer and fewer ticket splitters. There is strong correlation between the numbers we see at the level of the presidential race and the races down below. So if Biden is   doing well in Montana and Alaska , it so happens that our Senate candidates in those states are also doing well. 

So here’s where it gets interesting. Democrats have been releasing a spate of polling showing great numbers for candidates at the congressional and state legislative levels. And we’ve seen two things, uniformly: Biden is outperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 numbers in all of those districts; and Republicans, the rare times they do release polling numbers,  do not include presidential numbers

So here, let me show you some concrete examples. 



#HD113   internal from earlier this month via Dem incumbent   @RhettaForHD113 : Bowers (D-inc.) 53 Douglas (R) 36 Biden +18 after Clinton +2 in 2016 (EMC Research; July 29-Aug. 2; 405 LVs; landlines/cells; +/-4.9%) https://t.co/j4UHdzngDa   #txlege
— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek)   August 17, 2020


This is a suburban Texas House district outside Dallas. Clinton winning it was a big deal in 2016 in what was once solid Republican territory. Biden leading it by  18  is … I don’t know how to even put it into words. I’m doing the “mind blown” pantomime. 



A new DCCC poll (Aug. 5-9; 500 LVs; +/-4.4%) in   #OK05   shows Rep. Kendra. Horn leading Stephanie Bice, 51%-46%. The same poll found President Trump leading Joe Biden, 48%-47% in the district.
— Kirk A. Bado (@kirk_bado)   August 26, 2020


Oklahoma’s 5th congressional district is an urban district, but Oklahoma City is a rare American city long dominated by Republicans, and it was a big deal when Rep. Kendra Horn won it in 2018. The incumbent she narrowly defeated had won in 2016 by a 57-37 margin. It’ll be a tough hold this year. 

Now you see those presidential numbers, with Trump leading 48-47? Guess what it was in 2016. 

53-40 Trump

This is fun, right? Let’s do one more. 

End Citizen’s United   polled Georgia’s 6th congressional district . This is the famous suburban Atlanta seat where Democrat Jon Ossoff made a splash in 2017, almost winning this ancestrally Republican seat. (Ossoff is now our Senate nominee in one of Georgia’s two Senate seats contested this year.) The seat was picked up by the amazing Lucy McBath in 2018 by just 1%. This new poll has McBath leading 50-47 in a rematch against that same 2018 opponent, which would be a veritable  landslide  in comparison. But they also had presidential numbers: Biden leading 52-45. 

So how did Trump do in this rapidly shifting suburban seat in 2016? He won it 48.3 to 46.8. So we’re looking at an eight- to nine-point shift from 2016!

And those aren’t cherrypicked races. They are literally the first three I happened to find as I searched for examples. And I promise you,  every  down-ballot poll with presidential numbers looks like this. 

So it’s one thing to wonder whether a handful of statewide polls are accurate, especially given the lingering pain from 2016. But the trend is unequivocal—wherever there are educated voters, the numbers are trending in the Democrats’ direction.   

Biden is winning the battleground states


Biden is winning   Arizona ,   Florida Michigan ,   North Carolina ,   Pennsylvania , and   Wisconsin . He’s tied or slightly ahead in other places like   Georgia   and Iowa, but that actually doesn’t matter for Electoral College purposes. There are enough states here for Biden to comfortably get across the line. 

In fact, all Biden has to do is flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win. And the polling composite margins in those states? 

  Michigan: 53.4-46.6

  Pennsylvania: 53-47

  Wisconsin: 53.2-46.8

Those are some pretty deep holes Trump needs to climb out of, and in all three of these cases, Biden is well above 50%. And it’s hard to move upward when so many people, well … this:   

Donald Trump is unpopular


We’ve found   strong correlation   in our Civiqs polling between Trump’s job approval numbers and his share of the general election head-to-head versus Biden. To summarize, whatever Trump’s approval number is, add one to two points to get his share of the vote against Biden. Now look at Trump’s national approval ratings: 


This is Trump’s “approve” number in both the key and reach battleground states, ranked by approval rating:   

Trump job approval % Michigan Pennsylvania Alaska Arizona Georgia Wisconsin Florida North Carolina Iowa Montana Ohio Texas South Carolina
41
42
44
44
44

44

45
45
46
46
46
48
49

Alaska and Montana aren’t typos—they’re legit competitive. Texas and South Carolina aren’t quite there yet, but they  really   want to be. There are  a lot  of states suddenly in play, or threatening to be in play, and they are  all  in Trump territory. 

Republicans thought they would compete in Minnesota, Nevada, and New Mexico, but you don’t hear much about that anymore, and Trump’s approval ratings are a big reason why—40%, 42%, and 36% in those three states respectively. 

Joe Biden has locked down his base

Biden emerged from the primaries with older Democrats and Black voters firmly in his camp, with weaknesses among Latinos and young voters. Now, while young voters are still his weakest age demographic, the trends are looking the way you want them to look:

His 63-24 approval rating among young Democrats is a dramatic turnaround from the 42-41 ratings he had around the New Hampshire primary.

Among Latino Democrats, Biden is now at 74-16—a nice improvement over the 62-25 he had during primary season. Among   all   Democrats, his 81-11 approval rating isn’t as gaudy good as   Trump’s 89-8 among Republicans , but the trend is still upward.   And , that means Biden has more upside still among the lowest-hanging fruit (liberals) than Trump has with his maxed-out base.

Conclusion

None of this means we take our feet off the pedal, of course. But really, is anyone going to do that anyway? We didn’t in 2018, despite all the great signs of impending victory. Heck, the sweet taste of big success  is a motivator.  So none of that silly “act like we’re 10 points down!” crap. That shit demotivates. No one likes to be losing. That’s why Republicans create an alternate reality where all news is fake and the polls are fake and all bad news is fake. Because if they looked at reality and saw how f’d they were, they’d call it a day and head home to do whatever it is conservatives do. (Apparently, that includes shrugging at hundreds of thousands of dead as acceptable, watching NBA and NASCAR events that they’re pretending to boycott, and becoming adept at the ways of the dark web, because where else are you going to get your Q news that the deep state and swamp and fake news are trying to hide from you? Oh yeah, I forgot: Facebook.)

Anyway, don’t panic because things are going well. And don’t panic that we know that things are going well. No one is breathing easy. It’s all shaping up to be a great election, and our participation will decide just how big an anvil we’ll throw to drowning Republicans.  

The harder we work, the bigger the anvil. The bigger the dagger to Trump’s ego. The bigger the Senate majorities, and with them, statehood for Washington, D.C. and, if they want it, for Puerto Rico. The bigger the House majority. The bigger the gains at state legislatures, which means better policy at the state level, and a greater say in the redistricting process. 

See? All good reasons to work hard. 


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JohnRussell
1  seeder  JohnRussell    3 weeks ago
Republicans create an alternate reality where all news is fake and the polls are fake and all bad news is fake. Because if they looked at reality and saw how f’d they were, they’d call it a day and head home to do whatever it is conservatives do. (Apparently, that includes shrugging at hundreds of thousands of dead as acceptable, watching NBA and NASCAR events that they’re pretending to boycott, and becoming adept at the ways of the dark web, because where else are you going to get your Q news that the deep state and swamp and fake news are trying to hide from you? Oh yeah, I forgot: Facebook.)
 
 
 
gooseisgone
1.1  gooseisgone  replied to  JohnRussell @1    3 weeks ago

It's very appropriate of you to show Harris in your post, because that's who you are voting for, Sniffy Joe will never make it 4 years, I doubt he makes it 12 months if he's elected.

 
 
 
Tessylo
1.1.1  Tessylo  replied to  gooseisgone @1.1    3 weeks ago

Who is sniffy Joe?

tRumpturd is the 'sniffy' one, due to coke or adderall.  

 
 
 
gooseisgone
1.1.2  gooseisgone  replied to  Tessylo @1.1.1    3 weeks ago
 
 
 
MsAubrey (aka Ahyoka)
1.1.3  MsAubrey (aka Ahyoka)  replied to  gooseisgone @1.1.2    3 weeks ago
Even in his video response to the allegations earlier this year, he suggested that he wouldn’t be changing his general style very much. “I shake hands, I hug people, I grab men and women by the shoulders,” he said. “It’s the way I’ve always been.” “I’ll always believe governing — quite frankly, life, for that matter — is about connecting with people,” he added.

If he EVER grabbed me by the shoulders or tried to "connect" with me, I'd be connecting my foot with his balls.

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
2  The Magic Eight Ball    3 weeks ago

 panic?  why?

this is 2016 all over again.

biden will have the same result hillary did

 
 
 
TᵢG
2.1  TᵢG  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @2    3 weeks ago
biden will have the same result hillary did

On what do you base your conclusion?

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
2.1.1  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  TᵢG @2.1    3 weeks ago
On what do you base your conclusion?

too many things combined to discuss online... I simply dont have the time.

but in regards to the polls saying trump will not win?

the silent majority rules so, unless pollsters have changed the methods they used polling 2016  they are just replicating the same mistakes they made in 2016 -     it is called doubling down on stupid.    have the pollsters figured out that silent majority yet?  I think not.

me personally? I'm not silent.   I told them id vote for hillary and 2 days ago said I would vote for joe... LOL

 

 
 
 
TᵢG
2.1.2  TᵢG  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @2.1.1    3 weeks ago
Too many things combined to discuss online... I simply dont have the time.

I see.   jrSmiley_84_smiley_image.gif   How persuasive.

the silent majority rules so, unless pollsters have changed the methods they used polling 2016  they are just replicating the same mistakes they made in 2016 -     it is called doubling down on stupid.    have the pollsters figured out that silent majority yet?  I think not.

So you hold that the polls do not matter.   Okay, accepted.   Now, how do you know the silent majority you mention will vote the same way with Biden as they did with Hillary?    Feelings?   Wishes?   

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
2.1.3  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  TᵢG @2.1.2    3 weeks ago
Now, how do you know the silent majority you mention will vote the same way with Biden as they did with Hillary?

   

that is a really good question,  but that is    "need to know info"

I don't have the time or patience to type it all out and you don't need to know.

take everything I said with a grain of salt.... won't bother me one bit.

 .

 
 
 
TᵢG
2.1.4  TᵢG  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @2.1.3    3 weeks ago

Question tacitly answered:  you have nothing but wishful thinking to offer.

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
2.1.5  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  TᵢG @2.1.4    3 weeks ago
you have nothing but wishful thinking to offer.

yeah, I heard all the same bs in 2016 when I said trump will win.

so, nothing new for me either.

c-ya  :)

 
 
 
TᵢG
2.1.6  TᵢG  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @2.1.5    3 weeks ago

Pathetic.

 
 
 
CB
2.1.7  CB   replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @2.1.5    3 weeks ago

Bot? Any unity to share?

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
2.1.8  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  TᵢG @2.1.6    3 weeks ago
Pathetic.

don't put yourself down like that... it is not healthy

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
2.1.9  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @2.1.1    3 weeks ago
"too many things combined to discuss online... I simply dont have the time."

jrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gif   You could convince a 4-year old with that one. 

I see thisjrSmiley_54_smiley_image.gif as your REAL answer.

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
2.1.10  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @2.1.9    3 weeks ago

yeah, I have this thing called a life....    imagine that.

I spend less than 15 minutes a day on this site.   

 
 
 
JBB
3  JBB    3 weeks ago

I think the gop should probably panic...

 
 
 
Gsquared
3.1  Gsquared  replied to  JBB @3    3 weeks ago

Trump is already in full on desperation mode.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
3.1.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Gsquared @3.1    3 weeks ago
"Trump is already in full on desperation mode."

Of course.  Otherwise there would be no purpose in his trying so hard to shift everyone's attention to China.

 
 
 
MAGA
3.1.2  MAGA  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @3.1.1    3 weeks ago

But Russia!  

 
 
 
MAGA
3.2  MAGA  replied to  JBB @3    3 weeks ago

Not ready to panic at all...

Friday, September 04, 2020

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/current_events/politics/prez_track_sep04

 
 
 
MUVA
4  MUVA    3 weeks ago

Why would anyone panic what is going to happen Joe Hiding wins?

 
 
 
CB
5  CB     3 weeks ago

Since I contact the Biden team "a lot," perhaps someone else (you?) can go to the official Biden Campaign page and fire off an email. Let the Biden Team become aware (if not already) that Donald Trump is about to kick it into high gear. That is, he is about to ignore everything negative Joe and Kamala  (not give it air) says about him while doing his schtick to tear one or both of them down. That is, "shouting from the rooftops" Donald is up!

AKA. "Donald the Mic," has got his groove back. He will shout into a perfectly good microphone that amplifies enough without the added effort, that Joe is weak and can't save the women and children in the quiet hallowed suburbs of America. (Watch out, Joe and Kamala!)

In addition, tell Joe's team. Donald is a "jet-setter." He loves re-packaging himself like something new breezing into town from coast to coast. Of course, folks like 'items' when they present as packaged 'delivery.' Makes 'em feel special that someone took the time and effort out.

Weave and bob. Kamala and Joe!  . . . . Please somebody go share this one with Joe!

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
6  Paula Bartholomew    3 weeks ago

I was okay until the stunt Pelosi pulled.

 
 
 
bbl-1
6.1  bbl-1  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @6    3 weeks ago

Stunt?  

 
 
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