Poll shows Democrats want to replace Biden on the ballot in 2024. A look at why.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
For all the talk about how President Biden's poll numbers have taken a turn for the worse in recent months, it's worth emphasizing just how much those numbers remain in the neighborhood of the new political normal.
© Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post President Biden delivers remarks during a Terry McAuliffe campaign event at Virginia Highlands Park in Arlington on Oct. 26, 2021.
Biden's average approval rating stands at about 43 percent, which is a number Donald Trump didn't reach for the vast majority of his presidency. George W. Bush spent most of his second term below 40 percent, and Barack Obama was in the 40s for most of his tenure.
That said, however much Biden remains politically viable, there is often a difference between approval and a belief that the politician is the best option. And a poll from Marist College shows a significant disconnect on that front when it comes to Biden and the Democratic Party.
The NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll shows Democrats approve of Biden 85 percent to 10 percent — the kind of partisan loyalty we've come to expect from such polls, even when a president's fortunes are down. But the poll also asked a telling question about just how much Democrats would like to see Biden run again in 2024. When asked whether "Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Joe Biden is the party's nominee, or if someone else is the party's nominee," Democrats are split 41 percent to 41 percent.
When you include Democratic-leaning independents, the question actually cuts against Biden, with 36 percent saying he is the best option and 44 percent preferring "someone else." Twenty percent are unsure.
That's only a little more than one-third of the voters Biden would rely upon in 2024 saying they prefer to have him on the ballot again.
It's a reality of political polling that the grass is greener on the other side. People responding to such questions are invited to consider their ideal, hypothetical candidate as a replacement for Biden — not the kind of actual, very-human candidate who would run in his place (warts and all). And as The Post's David Weigel notes, it's also quite possible that many Democrats assumed Biden was a one-term proposition in the first place, given his age.
That said, it's pretty remarkable how much Democrats would like to turn the page on an incumbent president in 2024. Only about half of Democrats who like the job Biden is doing also say he's preferable to that hypothetical "someone else." And the GOP side is very notably reversed, with 50 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents saying Trump gives them a better chance, versus 35 percent who say someone else would.
Part of that would seem to owe to affection for Trump. A strong majority of Republicans like Trump. But the question is also a pragmatic one. It's not about whether you think the guy would be the best president for your side; it's about whether you think he would have the best chance of winning for your side. Despite Trump being a historically unpopular president and having very recently proved his electoral limitations in 2020, Republicans still prefer (or at least say they prefer) to roll the dice on him.
You can call that blind loyalty, but the fact that Biden doesn't command as much loyalty on this question is significant, given that he's the guy who just won less than a year ago.
It's difficult to find an analog for a political party saying, preemptively, that it would prefer to replace a president with a new nominee in the following election. In 2010, shortly before Democrats lost big in the election that year, Gallup gave Democrats a choice in a rematch between incumbent Obama and Hillary Clinton as their 2012 nominee. They still picked Obama 52 percent to 37 percent.
There have been times when we've seen it not with incumbent presidents but with emerging nominees. When Trump was the presumptive GOP nominee in the summer of 2016, for instance, a poll still showed that Republicans preferred "someone else" to him, by 52 percent to 45 percent.
About the best comparison is the last time we had a serious primary challenge to a sitting president. Before Ted Kennedy launched a campaign against Jimmy Carter in 1979, a New York Times-CBS News poll showed that just 23 percent of voters favored Carter in such a matchup. Six in 10 preferred either Kennedy (52 percent) or then-California Gov. Jerry Brown (8 percent). Carter still won the primary against Kennedy — rather easily — but lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
We also shouldn't necessarily interpret this as an appetite for a primary challenge should Biden choose to run again. For one, he is pretty broadly acceptable to Democrats, even if they don't necessarily see him as their best hope. And partisans will know that splintering the party in a primary against an incumbent president could hurt the party in the general election. There's a reason that rarely happens, and you can bet the national Democratic Party would do plenty to prevent it if it were rearing its head in 2024. (See above.)
And indeed, it's hardly a foregone conclusion that Biden runs again. When his luck was down in the 2020 primaries, a report indicated he had floated a one-term pledge. (Biden HQ denied this.) He is also already the oldest person to win a presidential election, at 77, and he would be close to 82 at the time of the next vote — more than eight years older than the oldest president to win reelection.
We shouldn't discount how much age might factor into whether people want him to run again. Polls of old politicians tend to skew in favor of "someone else," even if people aren't necessarily pushing hard for someone else.
A case in point: A recent poll showed two-thirds of Iowans preferred "someone else" to 88-year-old Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) in 2022, but he still leads in his reelection bid. (This poll, though, was about who would be best for the job, rather than who could win, and the partisanship of red Iowa comes into play with Grassley actually running.)
But whatever the factors involved here — and however realistic it would be that someone would step forward to run against Biden and actually garner significant support — it's not a vote of confidence from his fellow partisans. It suggests there are indeed reservations about Biden's political future, for whatever reasons.
And when given the option to say that without necessarily saying "we don't like the guy," plenty of his supporters are willing to say it.
Article is LOCKED by author/seeder
I am starting to think it might be better to start to think about replacing Biden for 2024, but my reasons are not the ones we hear from the right. I'm not worried about him being feeble , dementia addled, or a socialist.
Biden is showing himself to be out of touch with the times. What the Democrats need is a fighter, someone to call out and push back against right wing attacks on our democracy.
Biden , due to his decades in the Senate, wants to get along with everyone, even the obvious snakes in the other party. And I think he will only be more like that in three years. He has a fundamental miscalculation as to what politics is about now, and I think he will have to be phased out over the next couple years.
sure, an even crazier extremist will certainly do better. By all means, please nominate Eric Salwell. He fights!
Biden was elected because (1) he's not Trump and in a far distant second place, he portrayed himself as a moderate. So get more Trumpy. That will help.
You are another one way off track. It is according to you, up to the Democrats to make concessions, and the Republicans can continue to suck Trump's ass.
Where do you come up with this shit?
How about this - first you dump Trump out of your party, and THEN we will nominate a moderate.
So, until then someone like Trump, but left? I don't get how that would be...better? Anyway didn't Biden say he'd only serve one term?
And what's her name doesn't have a chance in hell of getting elected
No, we don't need to placate progressive liberals is any way, shape or form. Nor do we particularly care who Democrats nominate.
Oh, please no. I would prefer someone who will fight for what's moral, decent, and ethical, but not a foul mouthed cretin who doesn't even understand the First Amendment
Some politicians say a lot of things that they generally have zero intention of adhering to.
No, this is part of the problem. One side fights so the other side up's the game with a stronger fighter. We need politicians who will work for the good of the people, not for their own fucking party. This partisan political shit is part of why we are in the mess we are in.
You got it, Snuffy.
I don't think he's any of those things, but the fact is that he's very, very old and he won't be getting any stronger or more alert.
Yes. He's an adult.
Or....somebody who has sense enough to win the center....which is where elections are decided.
And the snakes in his own party.
He's going to be phased out because he's older than dirt.
The real question is whether the Democrats will replace him with an intelligent centrist (like Obama/Clinton) or a raving leftist (like Bernie/AOC). The former will probably win the WH, while the latter will open the door for whomever the Republicans decide to put forward.
Of course not. It is obvious you like someone that will take this country in a socialist direction.
Oh, yea...and he doesn't mean tweet.
Better socialist direction than fascist.
Difference is that Biden is no more socialist than any other moderate politician, but Trump and many in the republican party are overtly pro fascist.
No one is leaning to fascists, why perpetrate that myth again?
Denying the 1/6 attempt to overthrow the government again? Supported and allegedly assisted by various republican congressmen and a former POTUS.
Some also forget the attitude of trmp during his term. Remember he wished his "people" adored him like Kim Jung Il's did (or something to that effect)?
One should learn what the word fascists means before using in sentences.
Then you should look it up.
He succeeded with "HIS" followers. There are several on NT that exemplify that.
Trump is in it for one thing only....himself and the money he can rip off from us and his moron followers.
I know what it means, which is why I called you out on your pathetic use of it.
Thanks for playing.
LOL!!! Weak, very very weak...
And the funny thing is that his "followers" are cheerfully handing over their money, despite all the evidence that it is a con. He got millions of dollars donated to "stop the steal". How much of that money went to fighting the election results? None, nada, nyet, bupkis.
Must be taking clues from you then.
My mistake!
Please, in the future, confine your posts to me based on what I have actually stated.
Surely you can back up that line of bullshit can't you?
You always manage to ask the hardest questions!
Because it is so convenient.
I agree, though the objective in 2020 was to find someone that both moderates and progressives could tolerate that wasn't Trump. We got that in Joe Biden. He was the stop gap between a possible 8 years of the tangerine Mussolini in office.
Biden really isn't nearly as bad as the bitter losers want to paint him as. Will some in the middle be swayed by the moans and groans of right wing dipshits overacting? Of course, but overall I think after 4 years we'll look back at the Biden years fondly. Perhaps not his first year in office since he took over in the middle of a pandemic and financial crisis, a festering 20 year war overseas and a US whose foreign relationships and role as a world leader had been greatly undermined. A turbulent first year was inevitable.
I agree that he's too naïve in thinking he can just reach across the aisle as he used to do in the Senate and get things done. Republicans, like many religious extremists, refuse to compromise even though they're more than willing to accept compromise from their opponents. They are essentially fundamentalist's who have dug in their heels and refuse to give any ground on progress and change and over the last decade or two have adopted a scorched earth policy in politics. They don't care about the optics of using one excuse to deny a President a Supreme court nomination then almost immediately turning around and hypocritically doing exactly what they said should never be done when it was in their favor. Until the Democratic party starts playing the same game Republicans are always going to take advantage of Democrats naiveté. Hopefully we'll get a Democratic nominee in 2024 that is willing to kick some heads in, metaphorically, and stop trying to be so nice to the spineless flipflopping conservatives who spend all day playing the victim whining about Democrats not playing fair all while sharpening their knives in preparation of their inevitable back stab.
Really.
Hmmm...border an ongoing crisis that the current Admin. refuses to do anything about, high inflation, fucked-up withdrawal from Afghanistan, obstruction of the President's signature legislation from members of his own party, pandemic still raging, willing to give huge amounts to illegal aliens for breaking our laws, all things that Democrats must be ecstatic about.
Biden is as bad as we think he is, and his actions as President prove it.
Actually, Biden is worse...
Three years is forever in politics. Speculation now is just guessing. The one thing we do know is that the electorate is getting younger, browner and ever more progressive especially about modern social issues...
Excellent point. But it's also forever in the physical health of an 80-year-old. Biden was always going to be a one-term president just based on his age and health alone, and I think he has understood that from the offset.
The issue then becomes "who do Democrats have on the bench"? And as you say....time will tell.
Maybe the Democrats can find a black transvestite pot-smoking Jewish Latino high school graduate who was captain of the football team to nominate. Would AOC approve?
Sorry. It's hard for me to get serious about this at this point in time.
Joe Manchin would be a good start. Democrats needs somebody with a brain to slap them back to reality.
LOL. Joe Manchin is a Republican in disguise - for him Hallowe'en is every day.
Regardless of what people call him, he's still a Democrat.
Actually....I don't think he would be a bad nominee. I like him just because he's fiscally responsible.
Now here comes my liberal friends to pull my liberal card
Joe Manchin has about as much chance of being the Democratic nominee as Donald Trump Jr does.
He seems to be the ONLY one with any fiscal knowledge. The rest just push spend, spend, spend and not give a flying f!$@ about the consequences and how it will impact the country or the people.