How variants like omicron develop and what makes them variants 'of concern'
Category: News & Politics
Via: perrie-halpern • 3 years ago • 17 commentsBy: Chantal Da Silva and Jon Schuppe
The identification of a new Covid "variant of concern," dubbed omicron, sparked countries to quickly roll out new travel restrictions Friday as scientists worked to understand the implications of the discovery.
On Friday, the World Health Organization said that preliminary evidence suggested "an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other [variants of concern]."
WHO said the number of cases of the variant appeared to be rising in almost all provinces in South Africa, where it was first identified. It also said the variant had been detected "at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage."
Here's what we know about how variants develop and what makes one a "variant of concern."
What we know about omicron
The new Covid variant was first detected recently in South Africa. The country's Health Minister, Joe Phaahla, said scientists were concerned about its discovery due to its high number of mutations and its swift spread among young people in Gauteng, the most populous province in the country.
Speaking at an online press briefing on Thursday , Phaahla said South Africa had seen "an exponential rise" in cases over the span of four to five days and warned that the new variant appeared to be driving the surge.
Within days of the variant being identified, several countries said they found cases of B.1.1.529, now named omicron. Infections have been reported in Belgium, Hong Kong and Israel, where at least one case was identified in a traveler returning from Malawi, while two other suspected cases were placed in isolation.
How do new variants develop?
As WHO explains on its website , all viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind Covid-19, evolve over time.
As a virus replicates, or makes copies of itself, it is normal for small changes, or "mutations," to occur. A virus with one or more mutations is then considered a variant of the original.
When a virus circulates widely throughout a population, as has been the case with Covid-19, however, the chances of it mutating become higher, Dr. Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London explained.
Most viral mutations can have little impact on a virus's ability to cause infections or severe health outcomes. However, if certain properties are affected — changing the virus's ability to spread or the severity of illness it causes, for instance — the impact can be significant, she said.
That, Gurdasani said, is when a variant can be on its way to becoming a “variant of concern.”
When does a variant become a 'variant of concern'?
Under WHO’s “working definition” of a variant of concern, a variant must be found to be associated with one or more changes identified as concerning “at a degree of global public health significance."
Among those changes are an increase in transmissibility, which concerns spread, or an increase in virulence, which means the severity of the disease it can cause.
"It has either increased transmissibility compared to other variants or it's more able to escape vaccines, so it has a property that is different, that changes or is a shift," Gurdasani said.
"In many ways," she said, omicron "is showing those features."
How concerned should we be about omicron?
As we continue to learn more about the variant, experts say the global community should remain cautious.
"The major concerns are that this variant seems to be at least as transmissible as delta, which is very transmissible indeed, and it has a large number of mutations in the crucial spike protein, which is targeted by vaccines," Dr. Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard, told NBC News in an email.
"This raises the concern that it might be capable of side-stepping the immunity generated by vaccines," he warned.
Still, he said, as it stands, "we really have very little data ... as yet on exactly how transmissible it is in highly vaccinated populations, let alone on the sort of disease it causes in folks with prior immunity."
Jinal Bhiman, principal medical scientist at National Institute for Communicable Diseases of South Africa, said that a key aspect of concern in South Africa, where there is a relatively low vaccination rate, is that those who have already been infected by the delta variant appear to be getting reinfected with the new variant.
Bhiman said that suggested that the variant was potentially "evading other immunity responses from other variants," she said.
Still, she said that theory was based on early data, adding that it was too soon to say what the variant's impact will be.
"I think the reason why WHO responded in the way they did is because of that reinfection vector, that this is the first vector with real immunity escape that might have real implications, but we don’t know the severity at this point so this is being done out of abundance of caution," Bhiman said.
She also said that the potential risk in South Africa, given its low immunization rates and limited public health resources to curb spread, is also of particular concern.
As we wait to learn more about the variant, Gurdasani said she doubted omicron would be the last variant of concern to emerge out of the pandemic.
“This is not a process that will end here. There’s a large mutational space for this virus,” she said. “As long as it replicates, it will mutate.”
In a news report, this morning two flights out of South Africa with a total of 600 passengers were tested when they arrived in Holland and 60 tested positive for COVID, they are now trying to determine if it is the newest strain.
I don't understand how we can hope to end the pandemic while allowing infected people to travel around the world. If we are going to continue to allow unabated travel then it would seem the priority should be developing the means to detect infections.
The political imperative globally appears to be protecting global travel rather than protecting populations. The science advisers have been telling us to adopt all sorts of restrictive measures for everything except travel. Any hint of a surge in infections prompts expert recommendations to impose social distancing mandates and close venues but those same experts are reluctant to recommend restricting global travel. The experts seem to be very selective in following the science. Why?
We can't. Neither can we end it if people stubbornly refuse to be vaccinated.
The general populace tends to be resistant to such measures too. Look at how some people freak out just because they're asked to wear masks.
According to CDC data, 70 pct of the total population of the United States have been vaccinated. 80 pct of the population age 12 and older have been vaccinated. And there has been a lag in reporting because of the holiday.
The unvaccinated meme is running out of scapegoats. People really are being vaccinated. And that doesn't include those with some level of natural immunity from a previous infection.
But those measures are the go to recommendation of science experts. Except for global travel.
The science experts recommend very restrictive measures based on anecdotal information (generally hospital admittance) justified by an abundance of caution to protect people. Yet any mention of restricting global travel prompts these same science experts to recommend waiting for more specific data about the virus; the abundance of caution is to protect global travel. The science experts have been very selective in following the science.
A bit of trivia only of real interest to myself, I've scheduled an appointment to get the booster. We'll see how long this lasts before needing another.
I got my booster Monday.
I bet we end up getting shots every year at minimum for Covid.
Yup, that's what I expect, too. At some point the commercial incentives will begin attracting political attention, too. It's almost inevitable.
The COVID vaccines have also established a model for delivering pharmaceuticals by government. The political ramifications won't become apparent until someone declares victory over the pandemic.
when they were first talking about the shot a year ago , i speculated then it would become an annual thing just like the flu shot .
And the border remains pretty much wide open. But some new hopeful news has appeared.
You'd have to shut down ports and all air travel to stop the possibility of it coming to the US. Land borders are not the likely course of it coming to the US. That just appeals to xenophobes who need a target for their racial bigotry.
Are the variants being incorporated in the manufacture of new batches of the vaccine?
You must have watched the Fox and Friends conspiracy mongering this morning.
Whenever the government needs another variant to limit our freedom and economic choices with, one comes along like clock work.
I know that viruses can and do mutate, but, it seems that the mutations of this virus seems to mutate again just as the last mutation is getting under control. I have to wonder just how many more mutations will appear before we can finally begin to see an end to the pandemic.
However, as long as there are those who continue to refuse to get vaccinated, it will be much longer than it should take.
JMOO
Israel to ban foreigners from entering over Omicron (msn.com)
Little bit of a WWZ vibe....
Evening. Yep this virus is going to mutate it's head off.. don't think it will be completely unexpected..
We have just got two confirmed cases in Sydney and we have now closed our borders to about 8 African countries...
And no XXjefferson we are not going into national lock down nor have we ever..