Polling and the Hidden Voter
A new Monmouth University Poll has revealed some startling polling numbers in regards to the 2020 race in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_071520/
First - Joe Biden holds an astounding 13 point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania!
Note that is a poll of all registered voters. The lead is much narrower among likely voters and I'm sure we'll be hearing from someone in the aftermath of the election, quoting some poll taken days before the election showing the race had narrowed in it's final stages.
Second and here is what has been the topic of conversation this day in certain circles:
"Most registered voters (54%) say they were surprised in 2016 when Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. They are evenly divided on whether they expect Trump (46%) or Biden (45%) to win the commonwealth this time around. One reason for this seems to be that most voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%). The belief in a secret Biden vote is somewhat more prevalent in Trump counties (32%) than Clinton counties (23%) and swing counties (23%)."
Does anyone doubt the much maligned Trump supporter keeps their political leanings under wraps?
Let me refresh the memory of those who chose not to see nor hear the truth:
It takes a lot of courage to wear the red hat. Violent mobs control the streets and progressive mayors and DA's don't want them arrested, let alone prosecuted. Instead, they will go after anyone who tries to defend themselves from the mob. Thus, I think this poll demonstrates why the polling was wrong in 2016 ( Comparing the current results to a Monmouth University Poll taken in August 2016 , Biden’s likely voter position is similar to Clinton’s summer standing in the swing counties, where she led Trump by 50% to 40% ) and why it is most likely wrong now. The hidden voter is a Trump voter. Progressive intolerance has silenced them - at least until election day where and when they get to vote anonymously.
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The election will be decided by these hidden voters.
In the meantime the media will frame the conversation.
One reason for this seems to be that most voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities
Ah yes. While the media often doesn't cover them-- there is the strong (but secretive) "Illuminati Bloc" of voters!
Let's not forget them-- they comprise a substantial portion of the so-called "Deep State"!
I'm afraid the voters you're missing may have died!
They were already olde in '16. Circle Of Life and all...
You mean In New York nursing homes?
No, actually millions of 2016 Trump voters died!
yeah , likely , my dad died in 14 , and supposedly voted for Hillary in 16 via absentee ballot .(SARC)
"Supposedly"???
According to who? Did someone actually claim that that happened?
did you miss the word in parenthesis? if so 3 of y'all did.
“Does anyone doubt the much maligned Trump supporter keeps their political leanings under wraps?”
not at all. I have a maga hat and a couple of trump t-shirts (all made in the USA) i seldom wear anymore because of reactions i get from some people. No way in hell i’d put a trump sticker on my truck for fear of some lunatic damaging it simply because of who i support for president. That speaks volumes about some on the left, none of it good.
Shame is a powerful emotion. I'd be ashamed, too...
Who said anything about shame? Only you. Confrontations get old, especially since it’s illegal to get physical.
It can be .
I'd be ashamed, too...
you should be if you are trying to make people vote for what you think is in YOUR best interests by trying to shame someone by saying they are voting against their own best interests.
Democrats have no clue , just like republicans , what a person actually considers to be in their own self and best interests . its fine to be pissed off because you cant convince someone their best interests are the same as yours , and its fine to be pissed off because someone would vote against your interests , biuld another bridge to nowhere and get over it . so that one can be put to bed by both parties .
i can say without a doubt , that nothing , absolutely nothing that is coming from the people that call themselves democrats today is there a single thing i consider to be in my own best self interests , any guesses who isn't even in consideration to garner my vote?
Donald Trump is not fit to hold high office in the United States of America. I don't care whose interest it is or isn't in.
A random name from the phone book would be more fit to hold office than Trump is.
How about a man missing his most prized possession - his mind! You have to vote for Joe Biden! Don't bother preaching to anyone about fitness for office.
Joe is fine. It is Trump who has dementia!
haven't fully decided yet who i WILL vote for , but i will keep that in mind
you are of course entitled to your opinion , just as i am entitled to totally disregard it .
DONE
Anyone else?
Um, 6 in 10 women voters who agreed with me?
Do you remember the break down on how women voted in 2016?
53% of white women voted for Trump with a woman running who's entire campaign was about vote for me - I'm a woman!
Well since you just said:
Democrats have no clue , just like republicans
Obviously you won't for either Joe Biden, the Democrat, or Donald Trump, the Republican.
Maybe some wacko third party candidate-- a Libertarian perhaps?
Well since you just said:
Democrats have no clue , just like republicans
Obviously you won't for either Joe Biden, the Democrat, or Donald Trump, the Republican.
Maybe some wacko third party candidate-- a Libertarian perhaps?
I wrote biden off during the primary debates , while there was still around 20 candidates , and because all the rest of the candidates dropped out or suspended their campaigns , has not changed my mind that he should have been written off.
I believe the reps don't have a clue just as bad as the dems , but absent any 3rd party coming to the front , and no Kanye west even if he is a registered wyo voter doesn't count , and he dropped out as well. I might not have any choices to make .
as for libertarian , I would say that is closer to what I think but im not a card carrying one and still just open minded enough not to be called a zipper heard .
But rest assured I will vote , no matter how many candidates are on the ballot , and we have a ways to go( 4 months) and both major candidates for nomination can stroke out of the race medically given their ages putting a whole new spin and perspective on things .
now if your asking if I lean dem or rep? I would have to say I lean more rep even if I don't totally agree with them , , what passed for dems today still has the stench of racism and bigotry about them even if they have changed targets, and that is simply a personal opinion you all will have to live with. since it doesn't bother me at all., The type of dem I would consider no longer exists in the party that calls themselves democrats , to you they would be called conservatives and actually hold a true centrist view of things , much like a
liberal republican was closer to the true center and not entirely republican .
So I would say I am more of a true centrist open to both liberal and conservative ideas but lean more central conservative fiscally , and socially I lean more liberal . in other words I don't have a party persay , but I know and am not afraid to say who I WONT vote for .and I wont be voting for biden this go round. I really don't fancy voting for someone who met the qualifications for office , but was chosen to hold an office that was essentially today considered assasination insurance , meaning someone that met the bare requirements needed for the job but no one really wanted to have that job .
and yes absent a 3rd party candidate I can get behind , I will likely be voting for trump , I can survive another 4 years of him , but cant say the same for biden if he wins .because I have 2 different economic plans in case either wins.
That's kind of a different subject, but if that's what you really want to talk about, I'm more than willing.
How do we prevent a candidate's citizenship credentials from being questioned at a point well into the election process?
My solution: The political party sponsoring him/her should do the vetting the day such individual announces their candidacy!
No more problems with that issue.
What vetting was needed? Trump was born in a major hospital in one of the largest cities in the country. Records of the birth and his parentage are easily accessible.
Years from now our grandchildren will look back with genuine outrage. This will be regarded as the dark era of the left.
Trump is going to go down in history as the worst president in the 240 year history of this country. It's not even a close call. So what does that make Trump supporters?
You'll forgive me if I don't regard that as documentary.
So what does that make Trump supporters?
It tells me you want to label a group in a derogatory way, which btw is against the Coc and has been for the entire time you and I have been members.
Any thoughts on voters being intimidated?
same here as long as i have been a member , which is close to a decade now . and they wonder why they are not invited to christmas dinner ….or over for the cheap beer (hint)
No fried Clams!
oh hell no. those are mine
That's one thing we don't share with anyone else!
No soup for you!
Don't they teach the difference between beans and soup at American universities? That's got to be a bummer for the privileged few!
Having eggs thrown at you is one form of intimidation, right?
Well if that be the case with you...well. its obviously proof that millions more people do it!
Well, well, well, you haven't proved much of anything except that you want to brand certain groups - which is a Coc violation!
Three strikes and your'e out
Interestingly i had a pollster call me yesterday .
and i freely admit , when i am actually polled i tend to screw with the pollsters to no end , why? because its fun as hell.
the silence on the other end of the phone when i say im muslim , suicidal and can drive a semi is priceless and usually tells them im fucking with them . SILENCE!!!! I KEEL YOU!!!!!
instead of screwing with the pollster yesterday , i simply told them i refuse to discuss politics , not to call me again , and goodbye and hung up. all very politely.
this year that will be my MO
Iv'e done similar things with the people trying to sell stuff over the phone.
its more fun when you adopt an Arabic accent....
Do you adopt an Arabic name as well and demand that they pronounce it correctly?
maaaaaybe...
no... more phlegm
You like that idea. You'll have them hanging up in less than 5 minutes!
I haven't had one last past 2 mins yet
They probably recorded you as a Biden supporter.
kinda hard when we have motor voter and same day registration here
doesn't matter , only thing that does matter is what you register on election day . primaries don't matter for squat and since i consistently register independent , they shit out of luck , it just means i cant vote in their primaries . but i get to vote in the general.
Speaking of same day registration - Does anyone think the dems are going to take a hit with so many colleges & universities closed down? That same day registration paid dividends for them with the indoctrinated students. Who knows what will happen when they are not on campus together and having it all made so damn easy?
Will they vote at all?
The question remains - Will they even vote at all without the same day registration and the support of their peers?
They weren't 'indoctrinated'.
We should know better, right? If they were indoctrinated they might all be using the same words & phrases like "Systemic racism" and "white privilege."
And to think I was going to close this one and move on to another story!
Screwing with them actually sounds like more fun!
oh it is actually , I just wasn't in the mood to when they called , it was one of those , im the guy you shouldn't have fucked with moments . we all have those moments , at least I was polite and upfront . rare for me.
Were they hidden Trump supporters or hidden Hillary haters?
That's the odd part of this election. The Trump supporters seem to be voting for something. I have yet to meet a Biden supporter, yet Iv'e met many who are voting against Trump.
I don't think you grasp the distinction between voting for some one/entity and actually supporting a candidate.
Everyone I know is voting for Biden.
Again, that doesn't mean they support or even like Joe Biden. They could be voting against someone, right?
I'm voting for Biden. I support him completely.
Ah, the elusive Biden supporter! Please tell us specifically what you like about Joe Biden?
depends on who you ask , i didn't vote for trump , but i didn't vote for Hillary either , according to the democratic faithful even though i did vote, my non vote was a vote for trump even though i didnt cast a ballot for him.
I get the same thing.
The left has taught me a valuable lesson over the last 4 years. There is such a thing as "the lesser of two evils". I can't stand Trump; but I am voting straight Republican ticket for the first time ever. Democrats have proven they are not fit to hold office at any level anywhere.
Sorry 3rd party candidates and independents. You might match my political views closer, and be more qualified; but the Democrats need to be stopped.
In the case of PA and 2016, Clinton had a lead of 48% - 44% among likely voter, which left 8% either 3rd party or on the sidelines. However, the final tally had Clinton at 47.5% - Trump 48.2%, with 4.3% 3rd party. On the surface this would indicate a possibility of hidden voters for Trump.
What doesn't add up is the Clinton drop of 0.5%. Obviously simple math would account for a portion of that, but it also indicates several thousand (Approximately 30,000) Clinton supporters stayed home or switched to Trump. If they switched to Trump, they cost Clinton the election.
I really have no interest in how any other state is going to vote , or even why , I try to understand a very pointed and profound fact , that all elections basically center around local elections , if you can predict what local elections will be your doing good .
I predicted 4 years ago( before trumps win let alone nomination) around this time that the USA was likely set up to see a series of single term presidents , I patiently wait to see if that prediction comes true .
as for how I think MY state will vote , I don't think any dem anywhere on the ballot with the exception of small conclaves that traditionally vote dem has a chance in hell of winning on the state level in the state house some will be seated , meaning some local dems in dem strongholds might win , but on the national front and elections , they wont win the state.
To answer for the drop in 16 , either people will refuse to answer , or give a false answer or figure its no ones business but their own. and all can be attributed to the last reason .
How did you vote previously?
That sounds like a sweeping generalization. Please explain?
Seems that at least the Berniebots put him over the top in some cases. So they obviously were JUST that. Berniebots. Not Democrats LMAO
Unsubstantiated claim that all Clinton voters stuck with her. Pretty easy to see actually
A lot happened in that 2016 election. Political Scientists might say there was a substantial realignment.
Would it be fair to say that blue collar workers are now solidly in the GOP camp?
As for your Berniebots:
Would it be fair to say that Sanders supporters are among the more energized voters? To be found all over the political spectrum, from the streets of Minneapolis to casting a vote for Donald Trump after the treatment their candidate got from the DNC in 2016.
Once again, You made the claim, it's up to you to prove it.
One thing I've got to say about Trump supporters and voters, including the "hidden" ones referred to in this seed, they're more loyal to their leader notwithstanding all his faults, negligence and mishandling the virus than the Pope is to Jesus and Mary. To them he can do no wrong, he has no faults, and he is the most perfect POTUS America has ever seen.. Has anyone EVER seen a Trump supporter admit to ANYTHING he has done or even SAID that was wrong?
Buzz, it's a pity you can't be here to witness the free roaming vermin who control many cities with the blessing of city mayors. In our election the choice is very clear. It has little to do with one man's faults.
That's not responsive to my comment. Will you admit that Trump mismanaged the spread of the virus in the USA? Will you admit that he presented the wrong leadership by refusing to wear a mask himself? I doubt it.
I see, so your comment was simply an attack on Trump.
Will you admit that Trump mismanaged the spread of the virus in the USA?
Of course not. Trump did exactly what Dr Stangelove wanted. If you want to blame someone you can blame Dr Fauci. Just be glad that I don't have access to the nuclear button because I DO KNOW WHO TO BLAME!.
Will you admit that he presented the wrong leadership by refusing to wear a mask hmself?
I wear the mask whenever I go out. What does that tell you? Are you that shallow that you need symbolism? And btw if he did wear it, you'd be calling it fake symbolism.
I'm so glad that you settled the most important election in my lifetime!
Vote for the one who can't complete a simple sentence?
Vote for the one who forgets essential things?
Vote for the one who shamelessly patronizes Black Americans?
Vote for the one whom the DC establishment as well as the far left has coalesced around?
Vote for the one who has plagiarized the President's own economic plan?
Vote for the one who's only appeal seems to be as a vote against someone?
That one?
Got it!
Let's start with the major issue of shutting down the economy!
They couldn't have shut down their economies without the political cover from the federal government. Putting people out of work and closing down businesses is a political high wire act - governors needed somebody to come out and recommend it or it would not have been done!
Buzz, I prefer we don't start posting pictures. It kind of degrades the conversation.
In my opinion it doesn't degrade the conversation, it helps to illustrate it, but for you, my friend, I'll not do so on any of your seeds or articles from now on. It's been more than 10 minutes since I posted the one I did so it's too late to remove it. Besides, it is bound to please Trump's supporters among the Evengelicals who think he has been annointed by God to serve as POTUS, an angel incapable of sinning or doing anything wrong.
Buzz, you are an adult, you know better. You post a picture which defames him and then somebody responds with a picture that defames Biden and suddenly we are in the mud puddle.
Besides,
I know you just want to troll the Evangelicals which so many around these parts hate with a passion. Evangelicals have no illusions about Trump, but they are keenly aware of the alternative.
I have an idea - why don't you tell me if you think there are Trump supporters who don't like to be polled?
Thank you, and to think I called you "my friend" and did not insult you. And since you're speaking about pushing the button to rain nuclear missiles on China (which is pretty damned obvious, and does follow your O'Donnell Republican covid playbook), I wouldn't do so if I were you unless you and your loved ones had very very deep and safe fallout shelters that are well stocked for a much longer isolation than a necessary virus one would have been.
I do not intend to contine this dialogue. Goodbye.
Ok Buzz....I let you have your say. You did so without ever touching on the topic.
There are plenty of places here for you to unleash on the President and Evangelicals. It's best to go there.
It's probably filed with the mythical gay agenda!
Here you go - enjoy!
don't worry buzz , if the dems win the day in the up coming election I will concentrate all my purchases for anything non usa made , cant say how much good it will do but at least I have the choice to do so , keep sending that cheap stuff my way. be it from china or Canada.
I'm not worried. You have the right to buy whatever you want, no matter what the source.
and just as a foot note? that odonnel crap looks like the last thing I left in the commode , and couldn't flush fast enough.
can I say im happy with how the Chinese government handles some things ? nope some things don't sit right , but im not subject to their jurisdiction either and can choose for myself what I will do.
Be well.
It sounds like something out of POLITICO. I'm still trying to figure out who O'Donnell is.
Do you have to be a registered Republican to get one?
I don't even think Republicans are entitled to read it
Very astute observation.
I've noticed the same thing-- Trump voters are obsessed-- more like a religious cult than anything else.
(Don't know if you can get the Fox News channel where you live, but if you do I highly recommend watching it for a while-- then you'll definitely understand why trump voters are like that!)
Notwithstanding I've been told that I suffer the deprivation of not being able to see American news, I do in fact get and sometimes even bother to read the Fox News internet web site (which has many video clips I can open) besides Yahoo News, MSN American News and MSN World news. Do you by any chance get China Daily News on the internet, and the English language CGTN (China Global Television Network) news? It broadcasts world over, and besides its Beijing Head Office, has offices in London, Nairobi and Washington D.C.
Just for clarity - I popped the data from July1-16 2016 and july 1-16 from Realclearpolitics into a spreadsheet. RealClearPolitics lists all of the major polls and their results.
In 2016 for that July period the average spread between Trump and Clinton was about 4% - in Clinton's favor. Since she actually only received 2.1 percent more than Trump did in the actual election - I guess the weight of the hidden Trump voter is about an additional 1.9%
For 2020 for a similar July period the average spread between Trump and Biden is about 9 points in Biden's favor. (I should add that Rasmussen shows the spread at 10 points which means they really think the spread is about 13 points.)
OK - I go along with the hidden Trump voter theory - heck, If I were a Trump voter, I would never admit it to a pollster either. So let's see 1.9% adjusted for inflation - make that about 2.04%.
Hummmm 9.00 - 2.04 = or about 6.96 Biden's favor in November.
At only 1.9% silenced by ridicule, it looks like progressives have their work cut out for them.
I followed the polls for years. Of course sometimes they are wrong. Other times there's a last minute shift, etc.
However one thing I've noticed over the years. While most polls vary from time to time, almost all of them usually give fairly similar results. With one exception: Rasmussen consistently shows the Republican doing much better than the other polls do.
For anyone who really gets into polling the distinction is between the polling of registered voters as opposed to that of likely voters. The former tends to favor democrats, while the later tends to favor Republicans, just as in this Monmouth University Poll we are supposed to be discussing.
IOW, Trump voters are too ashamed to admit to it...
A more likely explanation is they do not really exist!
Very astute observation.
I've noticed the same [thing DELETED] more like a religious cult than anything else.
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