Why Trump Will Lose IN 2020
He cheats. He lies. He steals. He acts with cruelty. He relishes hate. It’s still stunning to realize millions & millions knew all this & still they wanted him to lead our country. It’s stunning to realize millions & millions are watching this now & still want him in charge.
Trump will lose because more people realize the above is true than deny it is true.
According to a Morning Consult poll, Trump's disapproval rating in Michigan is 55% now. Michigan is arguably THE key state to Trump's re-election hopes. It's flipping from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016 was the bellweather for Trump's electoral victory.
In the 2018 mid term elections, many people who had voted for Trump, particularly in the upper midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin, and also in Pennsylvania, returned to supporting Democratic candidates , in defiance of Trump's expressed wishes.
Trump's major and insurmountable problem is that his behavior , in the White House as president, has been so abhorrent and dysfunctional that it has turned off millions of people who voted for him in 2016.
Although I have been largely critical of people who voted for Trump in the last presidential election, it is no doubt true that some of his supporters were not aware of Trump's history of dishonest, unethical, and shameful behavior, and chose him over the Democratic candidate because they wanted "change" and believed that Trump's material wealth meant that he was a good and decent man who knew how to get things done and had the background in business they wanted to see in their president.
Now, it was well known before the 2016 election that Trump had an actual background of cheating, lying, bankruptcy, misogyny, but it seems that these facts did not seep down to a section of blue collar and middle class voters who developed faith and trust in Trump.
So, unexpectedly, likely even to trump himself, he won. Just enough people in the "swing states" had chosen to cast their lot with the "disrupter".
But then, after taking office and power, Trump began his incredible blizzard of lies, misinformation, often times nonsense, vindictiveness, bizarre tweets, and we began to see White House dysfunction, numerous books pointing out how chaotic the administration, and even Trump's day to day thinking, was, ridiculous nicknaming "Little Rocket Man" , insulting our time tested international allies, pushing other heads of state out of the way so Trump could properly preen for publicity photos, saying "there are good people on both sides" (when one of the sides were anti-semititc and anti-black neo-Nazis) , separation of children from their parents at the border, and countless other malfunctions of presidential behavior and expression.
People who voted for Trump in 2016 have abandoned him. Not a lot, he still has a base of roughly 40%, but more than enough to cost him the election in 2020.
But here is the thing. Once Trump's unfitness for office became apparent to the previous Obama voters who went for him in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, once his bizarre and offensive performance as president became painfully obvious, those people left him in the mid terms, and they are not going back.
To go back to Trump they would have to re-lie to themselves and pretend they didn't see what they have seen since Trump took office. That is not human nature. "Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me"
It is highly likely that the 2020 election will be a repeat of the mid terms, in other words an overall rebuke of Trump and trumpism.