Trump's Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous. | FiveThirtyEight

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  3 weeks ago  •  112 comments

By:   natesilver (FiveThirtyEight)

Trump's Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous. | FiveThirtyEight
President Trump's quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night's debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, put…

Will Trump attempt a coup when he loses?


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



By Nate Silver

Filed under 2020 Election

President Trump's quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night's debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996. 1

If we look at potential tipping-point states, the race is a bit closer, but not that much closer. After a couple of strong polls for Joe Biden earlier this week in Pennsylvania — the state that's currently most likely to decide the election — Trump now trails there by 5 to 6 points. He's down by about 7 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile. Those states, along with Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire — where Biden has also polled strongly lately — suggest that Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago. Indeed, Biden is as close to winning South Carolina or Alaska as Trump is to winning Michigan and Wisconsin, based on recent polls of those states.

At a time when Trump desperately needed a boost, the debate probably didn't help him either — it may have hurt him. Every scientific poll we've seen had Trump losing the debate, some by narrow margins and some by wide ones.

That includes the poll FiveThirtyEight conducted with Ipsos, which surveyed the same group of voters before and after the debate. While the poll didn't show a massive swing — most voters stuck to their initial preferences — more voters did rate Biden's performance favorably, and Biden gained ground relative to Trump based on the number of voters who said they were certain to vote for him, roughly tantamount to a 3-point swing toward Biden in head-to-head polls.

Now, I'm not predicting this will happen, but if Biden's national lead were to expand to 9 or 10 points, which is consistent with the sorts of polling bounces we've seen in the past for candidates who were perceived to win debates — especially challengers debating an incumbent for the first time — Trump's situation could become quite desperate.

To be clear, none of this means that Trump's chances are kaput. As of this writing, our forecast still gives him around a 21 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. That's not great, but it's a lot better than zero.

But it's possible Trump's chances may decline further after post-debate polling begins to roll into our forecast. Furthermore, the mere passage of time helps Biden in our model, because every day that Trump doesn't gain ground is a day when his fate becomes slightly more sealed. (Lots of people have already voted!) Case in point: In an election held today — Trump has no more time to make up ground — his chances would be 9 percent, not 21 percent, according to our forecast.

Then again, there are some possibilities that our model doesn't account for, and they have become more pertinent after Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power and declined to commit to respecting the election results. As we wrote when launching the forecast:


We assume that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. The model also does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.

Let's back up for a second. This is FiveThirtyEight's fourth presidential election campaign. And in the previous three, there was at least some question about who was ahead in the stretch run of the race. John McCain, for instance, briefly pulled ahead of Barack Obama following the 2008 Republican convention, and Obama didn't really solidify his lead until early October. In 2012, national polls were very tight between Obama and Mitt Romney following the first presidential debate, and remained fairly tight thereafter (although Obama always maintained an Electoral College edge). And people forget how close the 2016 race was for stretches of the campaign; it was not such a huge upset. In fact, Hillary Clinton led by only 1.4 points in our national polling average heading into the first debate that year.

But there isn't any of that ambiguity this time. Since we launched our general election polling averages on June 18, Biden has never led by less than 6.6 points nationally. Literally only one national poll — a Rasmussen Reports poll that put Trump ahead by less than a full percentage point — has shown Trump leading by any margin during that period. It's been an exceptionally stable race.

silver.EU_.0930.png

But, amazingly, that hasn't really shaken people's confidence in Trump's ability to win. In our own poll with Ipsos, we found respondents thought Biden and Trump had roughly equally likely chances of winning. And maybe that boils down to three perpetual sources of anxiety I hear in conversation with liberal friends or liberal readers:

  1. Trump could win the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by a wide margin.
  2. There could be a large polling error in Trump's favor.
  3. Trump could somehow steal the election.

All three are legitimate sources of concern for Biden backers. The first two are relatively easy to quantify, however. Indeed, the whole purpose of a model like FiveThirtyEight's presidential forecast is to answer questions like those. The third one, however, is harder to get a handle on, so let's talk about No. 1 and 2 first..

The Electoral College could still help Trump, but it only goes so far


The possibility of an Electoral College, popular vote split remains a point in Trump's favor. In fact, there's an 11 percent chance that Trump wins the Electoral College but not the popular vote in our forecast (but less than a 1 percent chance the other way around). At the same time, Biden's strength in the Upper Midwest relative to Clinton's — at least, if polls are correct there — potentially mitigates this disadvantage to some extent. The table below shows Biden's probability of winning the Electoral College given various popular vote margins, according to our forecast as of Wednesday afternoon. And as you can see, Biden is only truly safe to win the Electoral College once he has a popular vote margin of 5 points or more! But, he's a fairly heavy favorite with a 3- to 5-point margin, and has roughly break-even odds with a 2- to 3-point margin.

Biden's favored, if he wins the popular vote by +2 to +3 points

Chances of Biden winning the Electoral College under different popular vote scenarios, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast, as of Sept. 30

POPULAR VOTE MARGIN scenarios Biden's chances of winning the ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Biden +6 to Biden +7 >99%
Biden +5 to Biden +6 98
Biden +4 to Biden +5 93
Biden +3 to Biden +4 77
Biden +2 to Biden +3 54
Biden +1 to Biden +2 29
TIE to Biden +1 11
Trump +1 to TIE 3
Trump +2 to Trump +1 <1

So, for practical purposes, you can take Biden's lead in national polls and subtract 2 or 2.5 points from it to infer his margin in tipping-point states. In other words, if he's ahead by around 7.5 points in national polls, that's more like the equivalent of a 5-point lead in the Electoral College. That's still a reasonably large advantage; empirically, it's not that easy to overcome a 5-point deficit at this stage of the race.

A big polling error could help Trump … or Biden

One of the misconceptions I hear about FiveThirtyEight's forecast is that "it assumes that polls are right." Actually, in some sense the whole purpose of the forecast is to estimate the chance that the polls are wrong. In 2016, the polls did show Clinton ahead, but between tight margins in tipping-point states and the large number of undecided voters, there was a fairly high probability — around 30 percent, according to our forecast — that Trump was going to win anyway.

So while a polling error is possible — indeed, our forecast assumes there's likely additional error this year because of an uptick in mail voting — it would still take a bigger error than in 2016 for Trump to win.

Assume that current polls hold until Election Day, and subtract 3 points from Biden's margin in every state (roughly the average error in swing state polls in 2016) … Biden still wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin fairly comfortably, and therefore, the Electoral College; he'd also be a slight favorite in Arizona. And as our friends at the Upshot have calculated, even if you had a polling error of the exact same magnitude in the exact same states as in 2016, Biden would still win, albeit narrowly.

Of course, nothing intrinsically rules out a larger polling error. We had one in 1948 — when Dewey didn't defeat Truman, after all — and in 1980, when Ronald Reagan won in an epic landslide instead of the narrow margin that polls predicted.

But there's no guarantee such an error would favor Trump. Historically, the direction of polling bias has not been predictable from cycle to cycle; the same polls that underestimated Trump in 2016 tended to underestimate Obama and Democrats in 2012, for instance. If anything, to the extent there are polling errors, they sometimes come in the opposite direction of what the conventional wisdom expects.

I want to spend more time on this topic in the coming days, so I won't go on at too much length here. But for now, know that a 7-point Biden lead on Election Day could, indeed, turn into a 2-point Biden popular vote win where Trump narrowly wins the Electoral College.

As I wrote earlier in the piece, our forecast gives Trump about a 9 percent chance of winning an election held today despite his current deficit in polls — not bad when you're 7 points down! But it's about equally likely that a 7-point Biden lead could translate into a 12-point Biden win, in which he'd not only carry states like Georgia and Texas, but would also have a shot in South Carolina, Alaska and Montana.

Trump's comments on respecting the election outcome are deeply worrisome, but it's hard to estimate his chances of overturning the result

Hoo, boy. At some point I'm going to have to write a column about this too, I suppose. As I said at the outset, our forecast assumes that the election is free and fair — at least to the extent that past elections that we used to train the model were free and fair. (Throughout American history, there has always been plenty of voter suppression and voter disenfranchisement.)

But for now, let me advance a few propositions:

  • Even a small probability that the U.S. could become a failed or manifestly undemocratic state is worth taking seriously.
  • There are a wide range of things that Trump could attempt to do, many of which would be quite damaging to the country, but they are not necessarily equally likely to succeed.
  • Trump's actions are much more likely to actually change the result of the election if the outcome is close, and right now, the most likely scenario is that Biden wins by a not-so-close margin.

Beyond that, it's hard to estimate the probability that Trump could steal the election to any degree of precision. It requires, at a minimum, some knowledge of the probabilities in a free and fair election plus some knowledge of election law and how many votes could realistically come under dispute plus some theory of the institutional incentives of the Supreme Court and various other courts plus some opinions on how Congress might interpret the Constitution in the event of a disputed election. Maybe a panel of experts could get together and try to put together some reasonable bounds on the probability of various scenarios, but I don't know that any individual could — certainly not me.

After Trump's actions over the past few weeks, though, I wonder if there's some tradeoff between Trump's chances of winning legitimately and his willingness to engage in authoritarian rhetoric and behavior, even if it probably wouldn't succeed at stealing the election. It's not like this is coming entirely out of left field; Trump also said in 2016 that he wouldn't necessarily respect the election results. But his recent statements have come at a moment of increasing peril for his campaign. It's hard to know for sure, but I think Trump's comments might be more tempered if he were 2 points ahead in Wisconsin instead of 7 points down.

It's not easy to see which cards Trump has left to play or which contingencies could work in his favor enough for him to win — other than if the polls have been wrong all along.

Consider that Trump's convention produced, at best, a very meager bounce in his favor. His attempt to pivot the campaign to a "law and order" theme fell completely flat in polls of the upper Midwest. He's thrown the kitchen sink at Biden and not really been able to pull down Biden's favorables. His hopes that we'd turn the corner on COVID-19 before the election are diminishing after cases have begun to rise again in many states. His campaign, somehow, is struggling to hold on to enough cash to run ads in the places it most needs to run them. The New York Times and other news organizations are likely to continue publishing damaging stories on his taxes and personal finances from now until the election. And now he's seemingly lost the first debate.

If Trump intuits that he's unlikely to win legitimately — it's not hard to imagine him escalating his anti-democratic rhetoric and behavior. It's also not hard to imagine this rhetoric further eroding his position in polls. It's highly unpopular in focus groups (yes, take those with a huge grain of salt) and Trump's polling over the past several days has been particularly bad (although there's been a lot of other news, too).

So we could be headed for a vicious cycle where Trump increasingly gives up on trying to persuade or turn out voters and voters increasingly give up on him. But from a polling standpoint, this is one of the clearer elections to diagnose: Biden isn't home-free, but he's in a strong position. Nonetheless, the outlook for what's actually in store for America has rarely been more cloudy.


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JBB
1  seeder  JBB    3 weeks ago

Donald Trump's diminished hopes for reelection are increasingly out of reach for his floundering campaign.

 
 
 
bbl-1
2  bbl-1    3 weeks ago

Trump will resort to anything to prevent him from testifying under oath, uncovering his financial situations and revealing his true status with certain foreign leaders and investors.

For those remaining in his 'orbit' I would consult a lawyer immediately then look up the definition of loyalty in a dictionary to ascertain how the description pertains to them.

 
 
 
CB
3  CB     3 weeks ago

The thing is to not take Donald for granted. He is without mercy! He will take any percentage and use it to build mileage towards another bridge.element. Biden has to stay the course and hit as hard as he can until this election is well pass.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
4  Buzz of the Orient    3 weeks ago

My biggest concern is that following the aim of his "bash China" campaign, that he becomes desperate enough (we already know he is either crazy enough or stupid enough) to think that he can unify support behind him by going too far to provoke China, like placing missiles on Taiwan (a reverse Cuba crisis) or bomb the South China Sea reclaimed and militarized islands.  China has been unbelievably patient and unresponsive to the criticism and interference in domestic affairs it has received up until now, but who knows what the CCP will do if Trump goes too far.  It certainly isn't wise to provoke a country that has hundreds of nuclear missiles, surely by this time ready to fire, and the technology (multiple satellites circling the Earth, a landing on the dark side of the moon, a rocket on its way to Mars) to be relatively accurate in aiming at major American cities - it would be suicide - a third world war holocaust. 

 
 
 
cjcold
4.1  cjcold  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @4    3 weeks ago

China currently has 320 while the U.S. has 6,185 with 3,800 ready to fire at any given time.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
4.1.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  cjcold @4.1    3 weeks ago

I would think that even a couple dozen aimed at prime targets would be enough, let alone hundreds.  How many will it take to create an uninhabitable Earth, as in the movie On The Beach?  These days the missiles most likely contain hydrogen bombs or atomic ones many times more powerful than those America used to massacre many  thousands of innocent Japanese women and children. 

 
 
 
cjcold
4.1.2  cjcold  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @4.1.1    2 weeks ago

America is the only country to launch a nuclear attack (twice). Stopped a war.

 
 
 
cjcold
4.1.3  cjcold  replied to  cjcold @4.1.2    2 weeks ago

Define innocent.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
5  Bob Nelson    3 weeks ago

Good seed. 

It's horrifying to see that today a pollster must try to estimate the risk of a coup d'état.

 
 
 
IMT
6  IMT    3 weeks ago

You're late!

Trump's coup d'etat was initiated in Washington, DC June when this being vomited up from the criminal underworld unleashed the military and police forces against peaceful protesters.

The election will be but another stage in this illegal coup d'etat. So will the interim leading to the inauguration. So too the stacking of the Supreme Court. Trump isn't running for president; he is running for Führer. All his actions are calculated toward the overthrow of the constitution -- and thereby the Republic -- and establishing a personalist, presidential dictatorship.

In this context, the most dangerous tendency now unfolding is the resolute refusal of the Democrat Party represented by an aging reactionary even to acknowledge the gravity of the threat posed. The feckless, non-serious 'opposition' is the sole reason Trump is able to pursue his coup d'etat.

The Republic is lost now. In these last, few, final days, it is imperative NOT to look to electoral procedure -- which will resolve nothing -- but rather to uncovering forms of resistance to the now rising regime of war, world war, repression and dictatorship.

For whatever reason, Americans enjoy priding themselves for their love of liberty and devotion to freedom. I've never believed that they are; but this is the time to prove me wrong.

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
6.1  Dean Moriarty  replied to  IMT @6    3 weeks ago

You’ve got to kidding about peaceful protesters in Washington.

LBJ would have sent the army and tanks like he did in Detroit. 

“More than 60 US Secret Service Uniformed Division officers and special agents were injured starting Friday night through Sunday morning near the White House as protests rocked Washington, DC, following the death of George Floyd last week, according to a statement from the Secret Service.”

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/george-floyd-protests-05-31-20/h_cb459ab077b164295d8d61d80987e3fb

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.1  IMT  replied to  Dean Moriarty @6.1    3 weeks ago

Patience, patience. You'll have all the violence you can stomach soon enough.

256

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
6.1.2  FLYNAVY1  replied to  IMT @6.1.1    3 weeks ago

Trump better be finding his own pilots to fly those attack choppers you've got pictured...... They won't be flown by uniformed military personnel.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.3  IMT  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @6.1.2    3 weeks ago

Some would. Others would refuse. Others still would defend communities from the onslaught. It won't be pretty any way. But state criminal violence is coming. You are witnessing a civil war election. I've lived my life and won't be part of it. You sound like a young guy. You may not be able to avoid engagement.

Can you tolerate an old man's council?

Be true but be smart also. Pick your battles wisely. Continue to educate yourself. Organizing resistance will be much more difficult after authoritarian rule is established. But opposition from the 295,000,000 who are the US working class will continue to grow and will do so immensely over the next decade. God bless our youth!

What is passed is lost and can never be replaced. Don't grieve the dying republic; instead be passionate for what's next. Base your analysis of events on the REAL conditions around you and on what is issuing from the halls of power. Remember that ultimately, the people ARE the 'constitution.' If they do not 'constitute' the nation, nothing does. Take care. Keep safe.

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
6.1.4  FLYNAVY1  replied to  IMT @6.1.3    3 weeks ago

Ah..... oh to be really young again.  I've earned my share of wrinkles, and gray hairs, and I'm proud of both.

Your advice and opinion is duly noted.  I'll add them to what my eyes and ears are taking in on their own.  For me, the only thing that matters is the US Constitution, and the people that constitution is all about.

As you said..... pick your battles wisely.  As an engineer I trust in science, and the math that supports it in all it's different flavors.  People like politicians say a lot, but it's what they do that you need to observe.  Trust is a hard thing to come by these days especially when you're left with a bad choice, and a really bad choice.  But you can see authoritarian rule coming from miles off if you are willing to open your eyes and be honest with yourself.  That last statement of mine seems to be the biggest hurdle that we as a country have to overcome.

Take care....  

 
 
 
CB
6.1.5  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.1    3 weeks ago

Your commentary is too hot. I suggest you tone down your rhetoric. What say you to that?

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.6  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.5    3 weeks ago

Before addressing your question, I contend that history will vindicate this perspective. That said ...

1] 'It is necessary to call things by their proper name.' As I see it, if a coup d'etat is in progress, it stands to be referenced as a coup d'etat.

2] Toning down is a metaphor meaning 'remember -- class struggle is the "unmentionable secret" of US society.' As I see it, it is precisely the refusal to educate ourselves on and to face the issues of social class which has landed us where we are.

Your wisdom on this?

 
 
 
CB
6.1.7  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.6    3 weeks ago

War divides and is a last resort. I would like to think that talking about "brinksmanship" in 'merica right now misses all the proper efforts (our systems are very strong) to not enter that space. And to which side do you attribute this 'act' of overthrow of a leading western nation?

 
 
 
CB
6.1.8  CB   replied to  CB @6.1.7    3 weeks ago
Will Trump attempt a coup when he loses?

My apologies. I just noticed this above in the article (In the armpit of the image.)  Is this what motivates your comments?

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.9  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.7    3 weeks ago

This is one of the interesting features about online fora. You see 'very strong' [socio-economic and political] systems. As I see it, they are in ongoing collapse.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.10  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.9    3 weeks ago
And to which side do you attribute this 'act' of overthrow of a leading western nation?

There is always one side that initiates, and one side that takes maintains 'out-front.' Do you agree?

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
6.1.11  Bob Nelson  replied to  CB @6.1.8    3 weeks ago
Will Trump attempt a coup when he loses?

The question is an error, closed by the future tense. 

Trump is already attempting a slow-motion coup. He is already destroying all the processes and procedures that are meant to ensure that transition exists, and is reasonably orderly. 

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
6.1.12  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Bob Nelson @6.1.11    3 weeks ago

...including, with his buddy running the Post Office, doing whatever is possible to slow and suppress the mail-in ballots, and stacking the SCOTUS to decide that ballots received after November 3 are invalid, notwithstanding the most unusual circumstances. 

What has just occurred could make a person consider that perhaps there is such a thing as KARMA.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.13  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.10    3 weeks ago

"There is always one side that initiates, and one side that takes maintains 'out-front.' Do you agree?"

The meaning of "takes maintains 'out-front'" eludes me. Does that mean 'status quo' or something else? It's not entirely clear what I'm answering here...

Further, 'initiation' may mean different things to each of us. And events don't occur in a vacuum. Neither do human caricatures such as Donald Trump ascend from some hell to materialize here upon earth.

I'd reformulate the question to ask 'from what historical roles, factors and motions has this moment emerged.' That broader question will probably result in more satisfying responses than a Manichean 'this side/that side' approach.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.14  IMT  replied to  Bob Nelson @6.1.11    3 weeks ago
Trump is already attempting a slow-motion coup.

I think you're on target.

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
6.1.15  Trout Giggles  replied to  IMT @6.1.13    3 weeks ago
Neither do human caricatures such as Donald Trump ascend from some hell to materialize here upon earth.

So where did he come from?

 
 
 
CB
6.1.16  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.13    3 weeks ago

Sorry! Sometimes I type in the "wee hours" or overly-distracted. Later, I saw my  sentence was garbled badly, and I should a correction. What I meant is this:

There is always one side that begins matters, and one side that take the lead to continue or conclude matters. Sometimes being the same!

I'm curious to understand if this present dilemma (Trump hospitalized for Covid-19) is a tactic to winning and holding on the presidency? What role do you have for today's White House coronavirus catastrophe?  Is this too part of the 'production' to keep power beyond a proper victory? A sympathy vote?

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
6.1.17  Bob Nelson  replied to  Trout Giggles @6.1.15    3 weeks ago

Trump has always been the same. His rise is everyone's fault, for not taking him seriously.

He put a full-page ad in the NYTway back in the 1980s, calling for reinstating the death penalty in order to apply it to a particular case. Thhe accused were eventually proved innocent, but of course Trump never apologized.

Need I say that the defendants were Black? 

Trump is a malignant tumor, that America has nurtured

 
 
 
Kavika
6.1.18  Kavika   replied to  Bob Nelson @6.1.17    3 weeks ago

This is Trumps ad and even after the Central Park Five were found innocent through DNA he insisted that they were guilty and yes they were Black and Latino. 

512

 
 
 
Raven Wing
6.1.19  Raven Wing  replied to  Bob Nelson @6.1.17    3 weeks ago
Trump is a malignant tumor, that America has nurtured.

To be fair, not all of America. Only those who would be glad to see America fail.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.20  IMT  replied to  Trout Giggles @6.1.15    3 weeks ago

Trump is a symptom, a manifestation of the utter criminal bankruptcy of a ruling class corpse that is rotting on its feet. If not Trump, it would be another. [S]he might be more polished and astute, but the same class policies would be implemented none the less.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.21  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.16    3 weeks ago
'I'm curious...'

That's always commendable!

'[Is] this present dilemma ... a tactic to winning and holding on the presidency?'

Trump's positive test intensifies the ongoing US political crisis. Temporarily, this throws a monkey wrench into machinery that sought to mobilize an election coup d'etat. It also exposes the criminal recklessness of official 'back to school' policy necessary to force workers back on the job to produce profits to pay for the milti-trillion CARES Act give-away to the wealthy/powerful criminal elite. Millions of working class persons now behold an irrefutable demonstration of this danger. Bluntly stated, if the President -- surrounded by an army of aides and Secret Service agents and with access to the best technology in existence -- cannot be protected, how [pray tell] can autoworkers, meat packers, teachers or students be deemed 'safe?' The reality is, there IS no 'safe' reopening.

'What role do you have for today's White House coronavirus catastrophe?'

The short-term political consequences are anything but predictable. Largely, your question turns on whether at 74 and clinically obese, Trump is able to recover rapidly or at all. It will be several days before this is known. If he remains hospitalized, Trump's daily operations may be handed over to VP Mike Pence. If Trump's illness is more severe and he requires a ventilator, the 25th amendment may be invoked.

Day to day operations of the administrative and legislative branches will be substantially disrupted. Campaign Trump has announced that all events involving him and/or his family have been postponed or rescheduled as virtual events. His ability to participate in future 'debates' is in question. If Trump's illness worsens, there may be efforts to replace him as the GOP candidate either in the November ballot, or in the Electoral College whose voters meet Dec. 14 in state capitals across the country.

The key thing to remember here is that Trump's diagnosis does not alter the tendency of the socio-political crisis of US imperialism. Even if he dies of his illness, Trump most assuredly is NOT the CAUSE of the fascist danger not facing the working class; he is merely the INSTRUMENT. This is to say that Trump's illness DISRUPTS the effort to build a personality, authoritarian movement -- but even if this Mussolini wanna-be is removed from the equation, the US ruling elite will find new means to prosecute its war on the 295,000,000 people who are the US working class.

'Is this too part of the 'production' to keep power beyond a proper victory?'

With or without Trump, the same class issues remain and US civic life is balanced on the edge of a razor. Failing in the effort to use Trump as a battering ram to crash through the front door, fascist reaction will be compelled to implement a 'plan B' to enter through the back door.

'A sympathy vote?'

Nothing indicates that Trump's diagnosis has evoked sympathy from broad layers of the population. For those infected by COVID-19, and for their families, it likely appears that this criminally murderous 'herd immunity' policy has reaped on Donald Trump his just deserts.

Edit: Improve Syntax.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
6.1.22  Bob Nelson  replied to  Raven Wing @6.1.19    3 weeks ago

Let's be honest... We considered Trump a clown... right up until he won the Presidency...

We have only begun to realize over the last year or so that his clownery is deadly dangerous to the republic.

Our complacency is culpable. Not as bad as the fascist-fellow-travelers' outright support, of course... but we were not vigilant enough.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.23  CB   replied to  Bob Nelson @6.1.22    3 weeks ago

Some of us have always been positioned to know that Donald Trump is dangerous, diabolical, and calculating. Ergo, he lives in a world of lies and schemes. What could not be known early on is the degree and scale of those supporters (fanboys and fangirls) willing to follow him whereever he takes them.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
6.1.24  Bob Nelson  replied to  CB @6.1.23    3 weeks ago

Personally, I was distracted by his clowning. I didn't realized the damage his subalternes were doing. 

 
 
 
CB
6.1.25  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.21    3 weeks ago
The key thing to remember here is that Trump's diagnosis does not alter the tendency of the socio-political crisis of US imperialism. Even if he dies of his illness, Trump most assuredly is NOT the CAUSE of the fascist danger not (sic) facing the working class; he is merely the INSTRUMENT. This is to say that Trump's illness DISRUPTS the effort to build a personality, authoritarian movement -- but even if this Mussolini wanna-be is removed from the equation, the US ruling elite will find new means to prosecute its war on the 295,000,000 people who are the US working class.

Interesting. Donald Trump is "prosecuting" the conservative case for a boundless free-enterprise system. The problem does arise that in doing so, his staff and his supporters have turned him (needed to?) into a cult of personality. One or both connections need to be taken from the equation politically in this election.

There is the problem laid out. What are you advocating?

Edit:  now.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.26  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.25    3 weeks ago

Thanks for pointing out the double negative. Missed that. My bad!

The 'cult of personality' [demagoguery, etc.] as you put it appeals to the basest and most reactionary social layer that inhabits every community in the country.

What I'm advocating is that the 295,000,000 who are the US working class must devise our own platform addressing the issues from the perspective of trusted scientists, educators, physicians, economists, etc., and that the working class itself must bring its agenda -- defined over and against the Republican and Democrat Parties, as well as the trade unions -- directly into the stream of political discourse. I advocate the political platform of the 90%.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.27  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.26    3 weeks ago
I advocate the political platform of the 90%.

Thank you. Can you be explicit, please. Social media 'types' bear many 'hats' and distinctions.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.28  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.26    3 weeks ago
the working class itself must bring its agenda. . . directly into the stream of political discourse.

In that case the working class seeking its own betterment agenda should positively vote. Enough of this persuasion expenditure on the point. Nothing changes without the 2 year/4 year vote. Use voting properly (or lose it in a haphazard fashion). The elites can repress "the informed voters."

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.29  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.28    3 weeks ago

Forgive me but saying that the elites can repress informed voters [true] and that the answer is to vote bespeaks a logic which eludes me.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.30  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.29    3 weeks ago

LOL! We seem doomed to errors in messaging (me more than you)! My sentence should have read: The elites can NOT repress "the informed voters." Which should clear up what I believe about voting taken as a whole.

@6.1.27 I covet your thoughts and answer, please.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.31  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.28    3 weeks ago
'In that case the working class seeking its own betterment agenda should positively vote.'
But only for a distinctively 90% class agenda.
'Enough of this persuasion expenditure on the point.'
You evokes a perception [correct or not] of frustrated. If correct, what is it about this conversation that I'm missing? What exactly do you seek?
'Nothing changes without the 2 year/4 year vote.'
Alternatively, nothing changes WITH the 2/4 year vote. Elections don't end, they perpetuate our system of elected misrepresentation. 
Use voting properly (or lose it in a haphazard fashion).
On the other hand, some refuse to be retained as political hostages to the Hobson's Choice that elections represent.
'The elites can repress "the informed voters."'
And they can do so in myriad ways. Most recently, courts -- and with no meaningful judicial discretion -- denied genuinely left perspectives access to the ballot.
 
 
 
IMT
6.1.32  IMT  replied to  IMT @6.1.31    3 weeks ago

UG. I have to figure out how to use this site's formatting capabilities...

 
 
 
CB
6.1.33  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.26    3 weeks ago

Again: Let's conduct a proper discussion.

I advocate the political platform of the 90%.

Be explicit, please. Social media 'types' wear many 'hats' and distinctions.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
6.1.34  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Kavika @6.1.18    3 weeks ago

Bring back the death penalty?  Bring back the Middle Ages.

ar1284123472566.jpg

engraving-of-an-executioner-holding-up-the-head-of-a-traitor-from-an-original-engraving-in-the-boys-of-england-magazine-1894-mjfr8k.jpg

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
6.1.35  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  CB @6.1.30    3 weeks ago
The elites can NOT repress "the informed voters."

But are they not already proving in America that they can SUPRESS "the informed voters"?

 
 
 
Texan1211
6.1.36  Texan1211  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @6.1.35    3 weeks ago

No.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
6.1.37  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Texan1211 @6.1.36    3 weeks ago

Ah, brevity.  A great trait.  Thanks for your opinion, and in reply, you may well be right - but they sure as hell are TRYING.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.38  CB   replied to  Buzz of the Orient @6.1.35    3 weeks ago

The operative word is: Informed. The informed voter is up on the news and events of the moment and resolute about performing a needful civic duty (including researching ballot propositions). The uninformed voter lags behind on current events and is not resolute about mailing a ballot or arriving at the polls before time expires. That is, the latter procrastinates!

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.39  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.33    3 weeks ago
'Be explicit, please.'

The 90% -- the proletarian class.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
6.1.40  XDm9mm  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @6.1.34    3 weeks ago
Bring back the Middle Ages.

Why travel back in time to the Middle Ages?  All one has to do is visit current day Communist China and take a tour of the CONCENTRATION CAMPS ("reeducation camps") they operate.

NINTCHDBPICT000597685669.jpg

Isn't it wonderful how free the people in China are?

 
 
 
CB
6.1.41  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.39    3 weeks ago

Okay, for this class, what distinctions are you advocating? It matters, because the 90% are not monolithic.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.42  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.41    3 weeks ago
'Okay, for this class, what distinctions are you advocating?

Dear CB:

Really?

Must you be spoon-fed?

IMT -- International Marxist Tendency

Think this through.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.43  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.42    3 weeks ago

Well since it is "you" why not just be clear about your "tendencies"? How about you 'bone' me up? Just assume I know nothing about such a thing as IMT?  A summary will do, if you wish.

"Spoon-fed"?  Yeah sure. Can you do it until I get caught up?

 
 
 
CB
6.1.44  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.39    3 weeks ago

Does this class have a political party of its own in our country?

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
6.1.45  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  XDm9mm @6.1.40    3 weeks ago

I could post photos of American prisons, but why bother.  Let's just look at percentages:

“What percent of the U.S. is incarcerated?” (And other ...

Jan 16, 2020  · The answer: About   0.7 % of the United States is currently in a federal or state prison or local jail. If this number seems unworthy of the term “mass incarceration,” consider that 0.7% is just shy of 1%, or one out of a hundred.

Ranking: most prisoners per capita by country 2020 | Statista

Jun 16, 2020  · Roughly 2.12 million   people   were incarcerated in the United States in 2020.   China ’s estimated   prison   population totaled to 1.71 million   people   that year. .

How about if we were to even DOUBLE the estimated number of prisoners in China and calculate a percentage of estimated prisoners in relation to the population.  It would be about 0.0024%, in other words a bit more than a THIRTIETH of the percentage of imprisoned citizens than the about 0.7% incarcerated in the USA.  

I wouldn't be so proud.....or throw stones at others...

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
6.1.46  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @6.1.45    3 weeks ago

I'm not too good in math, so how about someone else calculate for me.  Let's go way overboard, and notwithstanding the Statista estimate of 1.71 million prisoners, estimate that there are FIVE MILLION incarcerated persons in China including say 2 million Uyghurs.  On the basis of a total population of 1.4 billion, what would the percentage of incarcerated persons be?  How many times that percentage would the American percentage be?

 
 
 
Dulay
6.1.47  Dulay  replied to  Dean Moriarty @6.1    3 weeks ago

Trump's attack on peaceful protesters was on MONDAY, June 1st. 

Different day, different circumstances. 

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
6.1.48  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @6.1.46    3 weeks ago

Well, I guess those who criticize others when they are even MUCH WORSE are a little ashamed to answer that.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
6.1.49  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Bob Nelson @6.1.11    3 weeks ago

Armed details are very orderly.  If that is what it takes to remove a squatter from the WH, then so be it.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.50  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.43    2 weeks ago

'"Spoon-fed"?  Yeah sure. Can you do it until I get caught up'

Alright, CB. I’ll give you something. But first, some prolegomena.

How many readers know that (sic) is telling us, ‘this isn’t my mistake … I’m merely quoting ‘X’ as ‘X’ wrote?’ Not many, I'd guess. Yet you also spoke of marching into a state office to deliver your ballot in person. And you’ve mentioned that some are so positioned as to know what Trump was from day one.

So I’ve supposed that you are a well educated [no problem here! Nor do I negate that in the least] individual with such proximate position and access to State officials as allows you to know what events mean. And as I use class language freely, I assumed that you meant to enjoy a 'red-baiting game' with one you full well is Marxist. So I wasn’t playing -- period.

But no -- you're not a mind-reader. All I can do is ask your forgiveness. Assuming I was incorrect, I’ll answer. But note – you wanted theoretical insight, correct? Remember that when you think, ‘this is way more information than I wanted!’

Social Class:

Socialist analysis is based on Karl Marx’ insight that under Capitalist political economy, societies are organized into three social classes. These are defined by their relation to the Capitalist system of production.

There is an ownership class [they own factories, fields, forests, mines, shipyards and vessels, rail yards and railways, transport/logistical industries, communication, energy, etc.]. This is 1% of the population.

There is an investment class [those who invest in stocks, markets, buy shares and bonds; banks, finance companies, etc.] and is ‘the Next 9%’ of the population.

There is a working class [with no means to produce, or funds to invest, they must present on the market daily to sell their labor in exchange for a wage on such terms as are offered]. This is 90% of the population.

Even if some overlap exists, these relationships to the system of production and distribution of goods and services define social/class identity under Capitalism – whether one is conscious of it or not. Under Capitalism, you are an owner, or an investor or a laborer.

Who Runs this Thing -- The Ruling Class under Capital:

1%ers are too few to rule. Alone, they would be swept away [literally] overnight. Their control of the toilers [the 90%] must be mediated THROUGH the Next 9%.

The Next 9% [privileged and comfortable] has nowhere near the social status, wealth or authority to rule the 90%.

So NEITHER can rule alone. Each must have what the other provides. Therefore the 1% and next 9% are FORCED into a hostile but mutually necessary alliance. TOGETHER, the 1% and the Next 9% ARE the ruling class. But it’s a rocky alliance! 

As competing social classes, the 1% and Next 9% are bitter political enemies. Each craves what the other has. They gnaw at each other – competing to seize for ITSELF the wealth produced by the working class. Every issue brings bitter, inner-ruling class struggle.

Usually that struggle is hidden from public view. But times of crisis STRAIN that alliance. The factional divisions WITHIN the ruling class are exposed and seen by all. Nations are divided as the 1% and Next 9% compete to recruit 90%er support for itself against the other class. This alliance fragility is critical in the strategy of the 90%.

The two, ruling class factions ALONE decide every policy in the nation. No policy backed NEITHER by the 1% OR the Next 9% is allowed. When Trump and others before him say, ‘America will never be socialist,’ they mean that the working class, the 90%, will NEVER be ALLOWED to implement its own policy agenda. And the Next 9% must toe that line!

TOGETHER, the two, ruling class factions aim to keep the working class [90%] subservient. They maximize THEIR wealth by keeping the 90% as near subsistence as possible without revolt–on pain of armed attack.

Varied Intensity Attacks:

When the economy is growing, a few sops [as wage/benefits concessions, etc.] can be thrown to the working class. So long as sufficient wealth is extracted from the 90% to sate ruling class money-lust, a little relief is allowed. But as the economy contracts and the 1% demands ‘austerity,’ these are taken back. The Next 9% cannot defend the 90%. It can posture, plead, negotiate, whine, blame, deliver ultimatums, go to court and more. But defend the 90% as a class? Absolutely not! 

This was confirmed in a watershed decision 25 years ago last month as AFDC [Aid to Families with Dependent Children] was abolished. After 6 decades, the federal government was no longer obligated to provide a minimum of cash and food assistance to impoverished families with nowhere else to turn. The bill passed with heavy support from both parties. Bill Clinton kept his pledge to ‘end welfare as we know it.’

To this day, and under the banner of fighting socialism and making “America great”’ [for the 1%] again, AFDC and other FDR ‘New Deal’ advances [really a ‘bribe’ to the 90% NOT to repeat the 1917 Revolution in the US] – are ending. And where is this long-term class agenda going?

The aim is a new ‘Gilded Age’ in which 150 years of social progress is reversed. So until companies can again openly deposit money bags on the desks of politicians and order them what to do, the class assault will continue until the 90% are utterly defeated and are reduced to worker drone-slaves. That's some greatness.

Today’s economy rests on oceans of debt and mountains of fictitious capital. In a global pandemic, the 90% are ordered to work to produce profits for the phenomenal wealthy. They will be exposed to COVID and many will die. But the ruling class is absolutely determined to absorb every last shekel while it is there to be had. The only relief coming for the 90% is death from deprivation and pandemic illness.

The Meaning of Today’s Events:

Trump represents the breakdown of the 1% and the Next 9% alliance. This is to say that the US Republic is in its last days. As an administration-led coup d’etat to overthrow the constitution is underway, the nominal ‘opposition’ counters with pleasantries and displays of social grace.

Both the 1% and Next 9% posture as representatives of the 90%. Neither does. The SOLE representative of the working class can and must be the working class itself. But the 1% and Next 9% will move heaven and earth to deny, to obfuscate, to distract from, to misdirect and otherwise to suppress this reality.

 The reason is obvious. Once the 90% [the working/proletarian class] becomes conscious of its class position/interest, and its enormous class power – and once it unites on that basis -- then class resistance to Capitalism begins. Today and on a global scale, worker class consciousness mounts at an astonishing pace. The ruling class sees it, knows what it means, and is utterly terrified by it. This terror is what drives the move to authoritarian forms of rule and fascism in the US and abroad.

Do all proletarians as yet share this class consciousness? No. And the ruling class will spare no effort to keep it that way. Yet the very conditions that necessitate the repression of the 90% will also AWAKEN the proletariat, the 90%, to that very class consciousness. And they will arise. 

It is only AFTER this ‘election’ [presuming that it is hosted at all], that the REAL struggle will begin.

It is imperative that this struggle be TAKEN from the hands of the ruling class. It MUST and can ONLY be conducted by the working class, the 90% ITSELF.

That authoritarian forms of rule and fascism now menace the US is testament to the fact that the ruling class DOES NOT and WILL NOT fight fascism. That US fascism rises at all testifies to the inability of existing parties to counter, dismantle and finally crush fascism. Surrendering the Republic to those forces without a fight, the ruling class has forfeited the right to rule.

The 1% [ownership] class [also called the bourgeoisie] presents in the Republican Party. The Next 9% [investment] class [also called the petty-bourgeoisie] presents in the Democrat Party. The 90% [working] class [called the proletariat] presents in the Socialist Equality Party.

> The 1%/ownership/bourgeoisie class has its class agenda.
> The Next 9%/investment/petty-bourgeoisie class has its class agenda.
> The 90% working/proletarian class has its class agenda.

All politics is class politics. Politics unfolds in the continual actions and [with the two ruling-class factions] reactions of class relations according to their respective agendas and demands. Knowing politics is predicated upon understanding these class interactions.

Socialism is the proletarian/working class itself–forcing its own agenda directly into the political stream of events. The 90% alone is to do this. It must do so on the basis of deep understanding of working class history and the incorporation of those lessons into current political strategy.

 Trump has done us the favor of destabilizing the ruling class alliance. It is time to build and work now to BREAK that alliance and transfer all power to the proletariat.

 Much more could be said, you are probably near blindness now. So for today, this is enough.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.51  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.50    2 weeks ago
This is to say that the US Republic is in its last days. As an administration-led coup d’etat to overthrow the constitution is underway, the nominal ‘opposition’ counters with pleasantries and displays of social grace.
. . . you are near blindness. . . .

But will the "coup" work? That is the question. Remember coup models have been tried before, but the people wholly 'kept it'—their government. Fortunately, the same and more enhanced actions are being put in place to shore up the republic (it is strong) even now.

Blindness. . . perhaps we should remember this is days out from an election. Practically speaking, the "fat person" is performing the post-chorus this very evening with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris. There is simply no space for any new form of revolution. We are voting already. We have to vote more. We have to vote Democrat, because republicans are exposed as a real problem for the working class!

Do you think you @6.2.17 you can speak on Russia?

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
6.1.52  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  IMT @6.1.50    2 weeks ago

I am glad that NT opened a window so that a wonderful breath of fresh air (you) came through it.

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.53  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.51    2 weeks ago
'you are near blindness. . . .
But will the "coup" work?
Blindness. . . perhaps we should remember this is days out from an election.
...no space for any new form of revolution.'

The 'blindness' remark was self-depreciating humour; I implied that my lengthy post wore out your eyes. That’s all. 

I outlined a social/class basis for interpreting history and political development. I stay away several days, giving you time to process this information. In the mean time, an attempt to kidnap and assassinate the Michigan Governor is exposed. I thought, ‘surely, this will get CB’s attention… CB will be listening after this…’

And you reply…how?

You dismiss the potential for an ongoing coup, beg for votes, contradict the presented framework and turn to Russia.

I ask myself, 'seriously?’ ‘Is that it?'

More astonishing – this is in the aftermath of announced charges against 13 Michigan fascists to kidnap/assassinate Governor Whitmer – you STILL see no danger to the US Republic! But then, corporate media had pushed even that story off the front pages within 24 hours. If you're tied to partisan narratives, what else do you have?

There is not a word on the far-reaching implications of this plot, and its connections to Trump’s strategy to transform the election into a coup. Neither the Times nor the Post published an editorial on it. Cable/network news treated it as a minor event in the news cycle.

Neither the Democratic Party nor the corporate press raised questions re: the potential role of Trump’s fascist advisers, or where the plotters obtained the money to plan their operations and buy equipment. Unlike Watergate, there is to be no investigation or congressional hearings into the connections between the plotters and top operatives in and around the Trump administration. There will be no questions about how funding for the operation was raised, how munitions were purchased, or how many – more aptly – how few degrees of separation exist between them and Trump’s office.

Not one Democrat called for subpoenaing Roger Stone, Stephen Miller, Steven Bannon, Erik Prince, or any other aides tied to fascist groups. The Democrat Party position is: ‘nothing to see here; move along children!’

While Trump’s administration refused to tell the truth about the COVID-19 pandemic, Democrats refuse to tell the truth about Trump’s fascistic conspiracies – both masking the danger of dictatorship and stifling mass opposition to it. The SOLE factor working in Trump’s favor is the duplicity, cowardice and reactionary character of the Democratic Party.

The Democrat/media silence on the most advanced conspiracy to overthrow the constitution in American history can be understood ONLY in class terms. The principal concern of the Democratic/Wall_Street Party and factions of the military-intelligence apparatus, is that the working class not become aware of the enormous dangers and act themselves.

Trump’s Election Day plan is no longer a matter of guesswork.

In battleground states supporting Biden, Trump will falsely proclaim himself the victim of election fraud, deploy violent groups to intimidate voters, seize statehouses and eliminate political opponents. Armed supporters will declare the vote invalid; or they will compel legislatures to certify pro-Trump slates of electors. Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have Democratic governors and Republican-controlled legislatures. They will be the plot’s central targets.

When Trump went on Faux News to censor Whitmer for ‘complaining’ about the plot and the horrible things SHE does, he signals to the fascist conspirators that if they are convicted, their führer/president will pardon them.

Before this clear and present threat to the US constitution, democrat rights and decision of the people, the Biden-Harris ‘campaign’ responded with platitudes chastising Trump for his “un-presidential” behavior and imploring people to vote. 

This is meaningless under conditions where Trump plans to ignore the outcome and establish a presidential coup d’etat.

Democrat appeals for ‘unity’ don’t refer to the nation. They beg Trump, a representative of the 1%, not to break its alliance with the Next 9%. This signals Democrat readiness to surrender and pleads for audience with him. Nowhere is this clearer than in Harris’ concession speech which you reference.

Asked what Democrats would do when Trump refuses to accept the election’s results, what did Harris do?

She pointed to Republicans and generals for Biden.

So the decision as to whether Trump or Biden will occupy the White House will be made NOT by the people but by right-wing politicians and the military. A Biden presidency would be hostage to the military. If it installs him, it can uproot him.

A genuinely democratic answer would explain the significance of Page’ question:

‘What will we do as Trump stages an insurrection and defies the United States Constitution, you ask? This happened once before in American history, in 1860, when 11 Southern states refused to accept the election of Abraham Lincoln. Our response will be Lincoln’s response: We will unequivocally defend the Constitution; we will not negotiate with him; and we will use every means necessary to suppress an insurrection aimed at overthrowing the vote of the people.’

And had Biden any integrity/courage, he would have chosen the site of the bloodiest Union victory in the Civil War – Gettysburg – to warn Trump and his fascist co-conspirators that the democratic rights of the American people were paid for in blood and will not be given up lightly.

Neither Biden nor Harris did anything of the kind. The Wall Street/military-intelligence Party is incapable of that stand. Instead, Biden asked to ‘revive the spirit of bipartisanship’ [for the 1% and Next 9%] … the spirit of being able to work with one another.’ Why would he want an alliance with fascist scum? His plea not to let government of, by and for the [1% and Next 9%] people to perish from the earth was not a call to action but a wail of despair.

I’m closing this reply with another key fact of Marxian social analysis: this is that the petty-bourgeoisie [which is the Next 9%, which is the Democrat Party constituency] has NO program of its own. [This is confirmed ironically on Biden’s own campaign webpage which has no stated policy positions]. The Next 9% MUST and WILL take its program EITHER from the 1% OR THE 90%. It is beyond contestation that the Party of the Next 9% – as one of two, ruling class factions – is NOT the party of the 90%. That falls for the 90% which is the working class to be in its totality -- ITS OWN PARTY.

The way forward is to form in every school, hospital, factory, office and workplace Rank-and-File Committees independent of both parties and of the trade unions to put forth the non-negotiable demands of the working class. The working class will conduct its OWN struggle INDEPENDENT of both parties. That truly is, 'revolutionary.'

And it is utterly terrifying to the privileged, Next 9%.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.54  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.53    2 weeks ago
Neither the Democratic Party nor the corporate press raised questions re: the potential role of Trump’s fascist advisers, or where the plotters obtained the money to plan their operations and buy equipment. Unlike Watergate, there is to be no investigation or congressional hearings into the connections between the plotters and top operatives in and around the Trump administration. There will be no questions about how funding for the operation was raised, how munitions were purchased, or how many – more aptly – how few degrees of separation exist between them and Trump’s office.

Why attack the federal system? This Michigan state matter has just broken open. The appropriate agencies have properly done their "duties and responsibilities" to the republic. Stick in the 'moment' with this. See where the path leads. Why so intent on "upping the ante?

As for this point of view being 'offer,' I am yet seeking to understand your single-minded interest in changing the narrative this close to the 2020 election. I have a perception that you are a spoiler throwing apathy around with purpose. Am I wrong? Only time (and fuller discussion) will inform me. There was no "IMT" point of view several months, days, weeks ago on NT, if you follow my drift.

So now you know what I am 'after.'

 
 
 
CB
6.1.55  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.53    2 weeks ago
Not one Democrat called for subpoenaing Roger Stone, Stephen Miller, Steven Bannon, Erik Prince, or any other aides tied to fascist groups. The Democrat Party position is: ‘nothing to see here; move along children!’

The democratic position is nothing will be accomplished by having 'talks' with people who stonewall committees and 'bought and sold' republican committee members supporting the cause.

IMT, you can discern this if you look closer at the "parties" and the political ("fight") landscape of the administration. Some political battles are for another day and window of opportunity.

NOTE: I don't approve of committee shenanigans or disinformation from either side in power; but, it is a far cry more done offensively by republicans who seem to always have an 'ought' against the gathering and presenting of facts over spin!

 
 
 
CB
6.1.56  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.53    2 weeks ago
Nowhere is this clearer than in Harris’ concession speech which you reference.

Post-chorus? Is about the vote, not any "Harris' concession speech" and why would she make one anyway on behalf of the presidential ticket? Explain.

 
 
 
CB
6.1.57  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.53    2 weeks ago
The working class will conduct its OWN struggle INDEPENDENT of both parties. That truly is, 'revolutionary.'

And in conclusion: There it is! You are calling for a revolution in 'merican politics. Why did it take you so long to build up to your thesis?

As a singer-songwriter Gil Scott-Herron noted:

The revolution will not be televised
Will not be televised
Will not be televised
Will not be televised
The revolution will be no re-run, brothers
The revolution will be live.
Songwriters: Gil Scott-Heron
© CARLIN AMERICA INC

This 90 percent revolution you are seeking must take place in the minds of the rank and file first ! As it took place in the minds of the 1 percent and the "Next 9" percent long ago.

It can not and must not deter from this election mere days away. Go vote for the best option you can find (under the circumstances). Get off the sidelines and IMT:

Don't Boo - Vote!

 
 
 
Dulay
6.1.58  Dulay  replied to  IMT @6.1.53    2 weeks ago
Neither the Democratic Party nor the corporate press raised questions re: the potential role of Trump’s fascist advisers, or where the plotters obtained the money to plan their operations and buy equipment. Unlike Watergate, there is to be no investigation or congressional hearings into the connections between the plotters and top operatives in and around the Trump administration.

What legal duty do you think the 'Democratic Party' or the 'corporate' press have in investigating a federal or state crime? Neither have subpoena power to mandate release of bank or employment documentation. 

Seriously, THAT is why Michigan has LEOs and why the US has the DOJ. If Trump advisors had anything to do with it, it's on the DOJ and FBI to raise those questions and act accordingly. 

I note that you left the GOP as having any responsibility. Why? 

You know that the Michigan AG is a Democrat right? You know that there have been state indictments and arrests right? 

BTW, it was almost a YEAR between the Watergate 'plumbers' being arrested and the Senate committee hearings. So conflating this with Watergate at this point and time is premature. 

Democrats refuse to tell the truth about Trump’s fascistic conspiracies

When, where and how? 

Did you miss the Impeachment? 

Democrat appeals for ‘unity’ don’t refer to the nation. They beg Trump, a representative of the 1%, not to break its alliance with the Next 9%.This signals Democrat readiness to surrender and pleads for audience with him.

Unsubstantiated and unfounded argle-bargle.

Nowhere is this clearer than in Harris’ concession speech which you reference.

Why pretend that CB made ANY reference to a Harris concession speech? Bad form. That kind of crap lends to the judgement of a lack of credibility. 

Asked what Democrats would do when Trump refuses to accept the election’s results, what did Harris do? She pointed to Republicans and generals for Biden.

That is disingenuous at best and a lie at worst. 

So the decision as to whether Trump or Biden will occupy the White House will be made NOT by the people but by right-wing politicians and the military. A Biden presidency would be hostage to the military. If it installs him, it can uproot him.

Now you're just making shit up. 

And it is utterly terrifying to the privileged, Next 9%.

Thank you Comrade. 

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.59  IMT  replied to  CB @6.1.54    2 weeks ago

Why attack the federal system?

Most telling! List a few pertinent questions about an attempted state coup and you rush to know why the system is attacked. Yes, telling! Yet I wonder, how – under the astute eye of the Next 9% – did a distinctively American form of fascism first gain a foothold and then rise to prominence? Does the Next 9% not know what fascism is? Has it no idea how to fight fascism? Remember, we know how to stop fascism but won’t do so unless you elect us’ is a ‘program’ no more than was John McCain’s ‘I know how to get bin Laden] but we have to elect him or he wouldn’t tell us. So where are the Next 9% theoreticians? Have they no insights? If so, why were these not translated into a program to block and then overturn fascism? If they have answers, why were they not presented in the Obama years – and certainly in 2016 – in order to PREVENT this unmitigated disaster? And if they HAVE NO answer to fascism, why would we support them?

My questions are rhetorical. I expect no answers. I intend to reply to myself. No ‘program’ is forthcoming because the Next 9% belongs to the same ruling class as the 1%. They are different factions of the same ruling class alliance. And as I said, their well-being is tied to the 1%. If the 1% falls, the Next 9% falls. That is why you rush to defend the ‘system’ of which Trump is Profligate in Chief.

Yes, I’m a ‘newbie’ here. My perspective is some 175 years old. Yet you’re hardly familiar with it. You should focus more on the points made and less on the circumstances of my 'arrival.'

 
 
 
CB
6.1.60  CB   replied to  IMT @6.1.59    2 weeks ago

You will now tel me where my thoughts should dwell? Well, here is the measure of my perspective for others here which bears repeating:

Go vote for the best option you can find (under the circumstances). Get off the sidelines and IMT:

Don't Boo - Vote!

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
6.1.61  Bob Nelson  replied to  Dulay @6.1.58    2 weeks ago
Now you're just making shit up. 

I, for one, hesitated at first, hearing the argle-bargle (great noun, by the way), but it's been a while now that it's apparent: "just makin' shit up". 

 
 
 
IMT
6.1.62  IMT  replied to  Dulay @6.1.58    one week ago

‘What legal duty do you think the 'Democratic Party' or the 'corporate' press have in investigating a federal or state crime? Neither have subpoena power to mandate release of bank or employment documentation.’

‘BTW, it was almost a YEAR between the Watergate 'plumbers' being arrested and the Senate committee hearings. So conflating this with Watergate at this point and time is premature.’

Yet Watergate disclosures unfolded daily. A plot this size would bring hourly disclosures.

‘Seriously, THAT is why Michigan has LEOs and why the US has the DOJ. If Trump advisors had anything to do with it, it's on the DOJ and FBI to raise those questions and act accordingly.’

And who seriously believes Trump will permit investigation of his fascist plot? Who? Yet the scandals of the 70s, 80s and 90s [Watergate, Iran-Contra scandal, Clinton’s scandals, etc.] do hold lessons for us.

1] For their differences, they show how much US political life reduces to intrigues by small, ruling class cliques fighting inner-ruling class differences while using media to shape public opinion. The real content of disputes is largely hidden.

2] All capitalist politics is based upon lies; above all it rests on the lie that a political system financed/run by millionaires can represent the interests of working people. The meaning of developments lies in what is being hidden and lied about.

With normal investigative ‘procedure’ very likely to be scuttled in a few months, you have two options:

1] Rally the public to demand answers OR
2] be a hit the brake on public outrage until Trump emancipates you from the task of holding the nation hostage by implementing fascism.

‘I note that you left the GOP as having any responsibility. Why?’

Who is calling for catalyzing investigation of Trump’s fascist plot? You shun investigative questions [especially from the press] on one hand, and on the other hand you protest an alleged absence of criticism for the coup party! Which is it? Again – why are we NOT to believe the Democrat Party offers a strategy for suppressing public outrage UNTIL Trump relieves them of that job by squelching it for them?

The Michigan Conservative Coalition, the Michigan Freedom Fund and the Convention of States Project which provided anti-lockdown protest funds have close ties to leading Trump backers. Not the least of these is Trump campaign advisor and MCC founder Meshawn Maddock, also a leader of ‘Women for Trump.’ The Michigan Freedom Fund is led by longtime the DeVos billionaire family advisor, Greg McNeilly. DeVos is Trump’s Education Secretary. Her brother, Erik Prince, former CEO of the mercenary firm Blackwater/Xe, is a close collaborator with former Trump advisor Steven Bannon and Trump’s sons, Eric and Don Jr. The Convention of States Project is funded by the billionaire Mercer family. It has close ties to leading Trump immigration official Ken Cuccinelli and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson. It is led by Eric O’Keefe, a close advisor to the Koch family. So what is the role of Trump campaign officials and big money donors in supporting lockdown protests? How might those protests have been adapted to aims/objectives of the militia conspirators to plan their fascist putsch? Democrats could raise havoc with the GOP campaign. But it won’t. Why? Is the idea to paralyze mass, working class mobilization until Trump has helicopter gunships flying everywhere?

Two press investigations produced evidence that the police killing of anti-fascist activist Michael Reinoehl was a targeted assassination – an extra-judicial killing, a crime under international law. Trump and Barr repeatedly celebrate this cold-blooded police murder. Not only did he boast of his role in it, Trump had the effrontery to raise this in the first bipartisan ‘dance’ with Biden. Biden made no objection.

So -- you want putsch party accountability? Excellent! Now’s your chance! Demand answers! Raise the alarm!

 Or are we to conclude that Democrat Party interest is limited to cordoning off unrest until Trump’s fascist militias can finish it?

‘Democrats refuse to tell the truth about Trump’s fascistic conspiracies…’
‘‘When, where and how? Did you miss the Impeachment?’

Au contraire, you can explain when, where and how the impeachment address Trump’s fascist conspiracies.

Oh, and I do recall that glorious ‘impeachment’ process. It attacked Trump from the right [an achievement in itself]. It said nothing of his war on refugees. It refused to name Trump’s real crimes. Trump is a war criminal; he is guilty of crimes against humanity under international law. That wasn’t stated, was it. And why is that?

It is because the same charges would stand against all living Presidents and [together with those associated with the late George HW Bush] all their Vice Presidents, all their Secretaries of State, all their Secretaries of Defense, all their Attorney Generals, and all their Chairpersons of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – every one without exception – stands to be prosecuted for their crimes against humanity, and for their crimes of war against peace.

I suggest that the problem here isn’t that I don't censor the putsch party; I think the problem is that justice is one. So any non-partisan approach will be perceived as a threat to the whole ruling class.

Speaking of ineffective efforts to 'remove' Trump, it was during those years that he and his devotees developed their fascist plots. Was it to buy Trump time that the Democrat Party abandoned any fight for the working class and pursued its ill-fated course? No, you don't appreciate that; but it most assuredly is deserved richly.

'Democrat appeals for ‘unity’ don’t refer to the nation. They beg Trump, a representative of the 1%, not to break its alliance with the Next 9%.This signals Democrat readiness to surrender and pleads for audience with him.'

‘Unsubstantiated and unfounded argle-bargle.’

IF it IS the party of the Next 9% AND the 90% [which is impossible as their class interests are antithetical/mutually contradictory], where are the Democrat Party permanent education campaigns on war and peace, on education, on unemployment, on the refugee crisis, on homelessness, on hunger, on social inequality, on environmental degradation, on the erosion of civil rights, on declining living standards, on declining working class life expectancy, on institutionalized police violence, and on the rise of US fascism? The fact is, the Democrat Party is NOT a national party; it is the party of the Next 9%. It is NOT a working class party. Nor will it be.

‘Nowhere is this clearer than in Harris’ concession speech which you reference.’

‘Why pretend that CB made ANY reference to a Harris concession speech? Bad form. That kind of crap lends to the judgement [sic] of a lack of credibility.’

The Pence/Harris [so-called] ‘debate’ is the context. Harris OUGHT to have referenced the other time in US history an election outcome was rejected when in 1860, 11 Southern states refused to recognize the election of Abraham Lincoln. She OUGHT to have taken Lincoln’s stand on defending the constitution. She OUGHT to have refused to negotiate with Trump. She OUGHT to have declared that every means would be used to dispose of Trump's threatened insurrection.

That response would have served Trump with his own concession speech.

But that is a fight the Biden/Harris party REFUSES to fight. Will you grant that? Of course not! But then, it isn’t necessary. And why not?

Trump already took the measure of Biden and Harris. He calculates that the petty-bourgeoisie/Next_9%/Democrat Party fears an uprising by 295,000,000 proletarians FAR more than a Trump dictatorship. Trump expects the Democrat Party to take it lying down. So do I. So do others on the left. Yeppers – in everything but name, Harris effectively ceded defeat. 

‘Asked what Democrats would do when Trump refuses to accept the election’s results, what did Harris do? She pointed to Republicans and generals for Biden.’

‘That is disingenuous at best and a lie at worst.’

 Really? Let's look at the transcript!

Que: ‘…If your ticket wins and President Trump refuses to accept a peaceful transfer of power, what steps would you and Vice President Biden then take? What would happen next?’

  Ans: ‘…We have the support of Colin Powell, Cindy McCain, John Kasich, over 500 generals, retired generals, and former national security experts and advisors are supporting our campaign.’

So there it is – from Harris' lips to your ears .* Without using the words, Harris no less than Trump issued her ‘stand by’ order. Harris as much as Trump knows that her intended audience understands precisely her intended meaning. Of course even if the military effectively installs Biden/Harris, the same trajectory will continue unabated. The multi-trillion CARES Act give away cannot remain fictitious capital. What is on the books must be given real value. This will require ever more vicious attacks on the wages and working conditions of the working class. And already, another 'give-away' is being discussed.

‘So the decision as to whether Trump or Biden will occupy the White House will be made NOT by the people but by right-wing politicians and the military. A Biden presidency would be hostage to the military. If it installs him, it can uproot him.’

‘Now you're just making [*%)^] up.’

Answered with reference to the previous.

* If the link doesn't work -- is.gd/G2MSa9

 
 
 
Dulay
6.1.63  Dulay  replied to  IMT @6.1.62    one week ago
Yet Watergate disclosures unfolded daily. A plot this size would bring hourly disclosures.

Which doesn't address my question in any way. 

And who seriously believes Trump will permit investigation of his fascist plot? Who?

Yet YOU seem to think that somehow the DNC or the press have the investigative capacity or authority to do so. The fact is, right now there are a plethora of ongoing DOJ investigations into Trump's shit. 

Trump's sycophants think that he was making a funny when he said that he would leave the country if he lost. It wouldn't surprise me if the day of the inauguration, Trump would be on a plane to somewhere that doesn't have an extradition agreement with the US. 

do hold lessons for us.

Yes but none of them have a fucking thing with what you listed. 

1] Rally the public to demand answers

Demand from whom? 

Oh and if your 'lessons' are true, why bother? 

2] be a hit the brake on public outrage until Trump emancipates you from the task of holding the nation hostage by implementing fascism.

You seem to be forgetting that about a third of the nation WANTS Trump's form of fascism and those in power are willing to accept it to stay there, 'public outrage' be damned. 

Who is calling for catalyzing investigation of Trump’s fascist plot?

Which will slide off of the GOP like goose shit. 

You shun investigative questions [especially from the press] on one hand, and on the other hand you protest an alleged absence of criticism for the coup party! Which is it?

What brought you to the unfounded conclusion that I shun investigation? 

MY argument is with YOUR claim that the DNC or the press ones responsible for investigating Trump. The press has done yeoman's work documenting Trump's actions despite documents garnered through FOIA being redacted so thoroughly that printer run out of black ink. 

Hell, YOU brought up Watergate. In reality, it barely caused the GOP to skip a beat. 4 years later  the GOP came right back for another 12 years. 

Again – why are we NOT to believe the Democrat Party offers a strategy for suppressing public outrage UNTIL Trump relieves them of that job by squelching it for them?

Because it's coo coo for cocoa puffs bullshit. 

Au contraire, you can explain when, where and how the impeachment address Trump’s fascist conspiracies.

So you did miss it. 

Trump is a war criminal; he is guilty of crimes against humanity under international law. That wasn’t stated, was it. And why is that?

Can you cite the US statute that makes 'crimes against humanity' illegal in the US? Hint: There is none. Nor is the US a party to the International Criminal Court @ the Hague. So perhaps you can tell me WTF would the point?

 It is NOT a working class party. Nor will it be.

Wow, that was a lot of words equating to the same pile of nothing. 

The Pence/Harris [so-called] ‘debate’ is the context.

A 'context' that you falsely tried to hang on CB. Again, bad form. The rest is just more argle-bargle. 

So there it is – from Harris’ lips to your ears .

So your idea of a evidence is truncation. Again, bad form. 

Throwing a load of crap at the wall gets you nowhere with me. 

 
 
 
Tessylo
6.2  Tessylo  replied to  IMT @6    3 weeks ago

So you're of the both sides are equally bad mindset?

Got it.  

 
 
 
IMT
6.2.1  IMT  replied to  Tessylo @6.2    3 weeks ago

'...you're of the both sides are equally bad mindset?

So let's consider this. Is the question one of 'good/bad' or 'better/worse' or 'bad/worse?'

Trump downplayed the danger of the global pandemic in which millions can be expected to die.

Biden downplays the danger of a fascist coup bringing world war in which millions will inevitably die.

You possess the native intelligence to see that a system offering this Hobson's Choice is at an end.

My mindset says that both criminal agendas must be rejected flatly. What does yours tell you?

 
 
 
CB
6.2.2  CB   replied to  IMT @6.2.1    3 weeks ago

Where do you opine the "criminal agendas" operating are hailing from: Russia? Other international nations? our homeland?

 
 
 
Tessylo
6.2.3  Tessylo  replied to  IMT @6.2.1    3 weeks ago

Again, so you're of the both sides are equally bad mindset.

I rest my case.

This alleged fascist coup are trump supporters so you are confused.    One side has a criminal agenda, the 'right'

 
 
 
IMT
6.2.4  IMT  replied to  CB @6.2.2    3 weeks ago

We are not responsible for what Russia or other states do. We who are US citizens are responsible for the US.

This does not preclude international ramifications arising from ongoing political crimes. Are you asking to know 'what' criminal agendas I'm addressing?

As an example -- the policy of our regime and of many others -- criminal malign neglect in the face of global pandemic constitutes a crime against humanity. When this is over, this crime must be duly prosecuted from the highest offices of those involved, down to the state, then the county and finally the city level.

Does this help?

 
 
 
Tessylo
6.2.5  Tessylo  replied to  IMT @6.2.4    3 weeks ago
"Does this help?"

Not at all.  

Sounds like a bunch of gobbledygook to me.  

Whatever criminal malign neglect means, sounds like is all coming from this criminal enterprise of an administration, trumps' 

 
 
 
IMT
6.2.6  IMT  replied to  Tessylo @6.2.3    3 weeks ago
"This alleged fascist coup are trump supporters so you are confused.    One side is criminally bad, the 'right'"

Forgive me but however clear your words are in your mind, your syntax indecipherable to me. I've no idea what you mean. Please redo.

 
 
 
Tessylo
6.2.7  Tessylo  replied to  IMT @6.2.6    3 weeks ago

"As an example -- the policy of our regime and of many others -- criminal malign neglect in the face of global pandemic constitutes a crime against humanity. When this is over, this crime must be duly prosecuted from the highest offices of those involved, down to the state, then the county and finally the city level."

This is indecipherable.  Don't bother to redo.  I'm not interested.

You just espouse the same old same old both sides are equally bad bullshit.  

Later

 
 
 
IMT
6.2.8  IMT  replied to  Tessylo @6.2.5    3 weeks ago

Well Tessylo -- if by 'both sides' you mean the Democrat and Republican layers of the ruling class then I answer yes; they are equal partners in the manner I've described -- one deliberately falsifying known dangers of a global pandemic, and the other deliberately ignoring the dangers of a fascist coup d'etat.

If against this you wish to argue that between these positions there are gradations of moral turpitude [meaning that some are 'darker' and others 'lighter'], go ahead and make your case. I'll listen to what you have to say.

Does this come from the Trump administration? Of course it does. But Trump could NEVER happen WITHOUT the feigned and utterly feckless 'opposition' of his nominal Democrat Party 'opponents.' They relate as perpetrator and essential enabler. With well over 200,000 dead already -- and the prospects of a coup and ultimately a third world war -- how wise or propitious is it to plea for 'lesser evilism?'

 
 
 
Tessylo
6.2.9  Tessylo  replied to  IMT @6.2.8    3 weeks ago

I'm not interested in your both sides are equally bad bullshit.  

Like I said, later,  much later.  

 
 
 
CB
6.2.10  CB   replied to  IMT @6.2.4    3 weeks ago
As an example -- the policy of our regime and of many others -- criminal malign neglect in the face of global pandemic constitutes a crime against humanity. When this is over, this crime must be duly prosecuted from the highest offices of those involved, down to the state, then the county and finally the city level. Does this help?

No. Your example departs from the discussion of voting and this election. I would like to stick to that line of discussion, please.

We are not responsible for what Russia or other states do. We who are US citizens are responsible for the US. This does not preclude international ramifications arising from ongoing political crimes.

This nation has rules against foreign state interference in our elections. Do you agree we should seek out and properly admonish and if need be punish any foreign state or official/s tampering with our national, state, and local elections?

Are you asking to know 'what' criminal agendas I'm addressing?

Okay, we can prosecute citizen offenders of this pandemic as appropriate in due time.

 
 
 
IMT
6.2.11  IMT  replied to  CB @6.2.10    3 weeks ago
'Do you agree we should seek out and properly admonish and if need be punish any foreign state or official/s tampering with our national, state, and local elections?'

Do you?

No seriously -- do you really?

We have logged a roster of scores of international misdemeanors and crimes including but not limited to overthrowing democratically elected governments, installing puppet client states, currency manipulation [and yes, China does it also, so don't ask], illegal occupations, clandestine operations, extrajudicial assassinations, etc., etc.

So if you truly wish to apply this metric, you must gather all living presidents and -- together with those associated with the late Bush -- all of their vice presidents, all of their secretaries of state [including Hillary Clinton and before her -- Madeline Albright], all of their secretaries of Defense, all of their attorney generals, all of their Joint Chiefs of Staff -- and prosecute everyone without exception for crimes against humanity, and for their crimes of war against peace.

Are you willing to do that?

I seriously doubt it.

And if you don't accept this metric, on what ground will you censor me if I refuse to cheer for refusing to believe what you yourself don't believe?

ALL such political criminals stand to be prosecuted by their OWN political criminals. Better yet -- they should be surrendered by their respective states to the International Criminal Court for prosecution.

This is more 'accountability' than supporters of either bourgeois party can stomach.

 
 
 
CB
6.2.12  CB   replied to  IMT @6.2.11    3 weeks ago
ALL such political criminals stand to be prosecuted by their OWN political criminals.

Clarification please: Who are the 'prosecuting political criminals' of those earlier mentioned political criminals?

What does this line of discussion have to do with your earlier (The 90% -- the proletarian class)?

So if you truly wish to apply this metric, you must gather all living presidents and -- together with those associated with the late Bush -- all of their vice presidents, all of their secretaries of state [including Hillary Clinton and before her -- Madeline Albright], all of their secretaries of Defense, all of their attorney generals, all of their Joint Chiefs of Staff -- and prosecute everyone without exception for crimes against humanity, and for their crimes of war against peace. Are you willing to do that?

Your concern is about matters and policies nation-states execute between and for their own benefit, using complex and overlapping activities. It is a separate and distinct discussion all its own. As to your question, if you can get a court to prosecute the 'merican administrations - go for it! Willing or not, if it can be done some other nation/s should try. It is beyond the scope of this thread, nevertheless.

Again, you seek to apply a new metric. Please return to the discussion at this point:

Observe we are discussing voting and this upcoming election. Outsider countries, I specifically mention Russia, are interfering with this presidential election according to our Intel agencies. What, if anything, do you suggest we do about it?

 
 
 
IMT
6.2.13  IMT  replied to  CB @6.2.12    3 weeks ago
'ALL such political criminals stand to be prosecuted by their OWN political criminals...'

Oh good grief! I've got to stop editing in the provided box and use a regular word processor. [Smacks own head and goes back to gnawing rocks].

All such political criminals stand to be prosecuted by their OWN people...

Sorry about that ... again!

 
 
 
CB
6.2.14  CB   replied to  IMT @6.2.13    3 weeks ago

Thank you for the clarification. @6.212. And the remainder of the comment? Please elaborate. Clear up any confusion about interference by Russia and other foreign 'actors' for me.

 
 
 
IMT
6.2.15  IMT  replied to  CB @6.2.14    3 weeks ago
'I specifically mention Russia, are interfering with this presidential election according to our Intel agencies.'

Nothing I've seen convinces me that 'Russia' manipulated the 2016 election.

The point of origin of the alleged attacks, their nature, their frequency, etc.

If that is ever forthcoming, I would suggest doing what the newly formed workers' state did after the October Revolution.

After 1917, workers got access to the archives. They found the Tsar's correspondence. Relevant documents were published in capitals across Europe. Suddenly, workers everywhere knew about the intrigue and subterfuge underlying WWI -- how they were lied into this massacre, and why the world was being divided in this way. Already jaundiced by the horror, armies began looking at their respective capitals with a mutinous eye. WWI ended. It isn't difficult to see why.

I've never understood why politics brings so many accusations of lying. Why would people lie about politics? The truth is so much more damning. Ask Assange.

Take care!

 
 
 
Texan1211
6.2.16  Texan1211  replied to  IMT @6.2.15    3 weeks ago

looks like you got ensnared in a game of 20 Questions there.

 
 
 
CB
6.2.17  CB   replied to  IMT @6.2.15    3 weeks ago

" Cozy bear " and " Fancy Bear "

Did CrowdStrike have proof that Russia hacked the DNC?
 

Yes, and this is also supported by the U.S. Intelligence community and independent Congressional reports.

Following a comprehensive investigation that  CrowdStrike detailed publicly , the company concluded in May 2016 that two separate Russian intelligence-affiliated adversaries breached the DNC network.

To reference, CrowdStrike’s account of their DNC investigation, published on June 14, 2016,  “CrowdStrike Services Inc., our Incident Response group, was  called by  the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the formal governing body for the US Democratic Party, to respond to a suspected breach. We  deployed our IR team  and technology and immediately identified two sophisticated adversaries on the network –  COZY BEAR  and  FANCY BEAR …. At DNC, COZY BEAR intrusion has been identified going back to summer of 2015, while FANCY BEAR separately breached the network in April 2016.”

This conclusion has most recently been supported by the  Senate Intelligence Committee in April 2020 issuing a report [intelligence.senate.gov]  validating the previous conclusions of the  Intelligence community, published on January 6, 2017,   that Russia was behind the DNC data breach.

The Senate report states on page 48:

“The Committee found that specific intelligence as well as open source assessments support the assessment that President Putin approved and directed aspects of this influence campaign.”

Furthermore, in his testimony in front of the House Intelligence Committee, Shawn Henry stated the following with regards to CrowdStrike’s degree of confidence that the intrusion activity can be attributed to Russia , cited from page 24 :

  1. HENRY: We said that we had a high degree of confidence it was the Russian Government.  And our analysts that looked at it and that had looked at these types of attacks before, many different types of attacks similar to this in different environments, certain tools that were used, certain methods by which they were moving in the environment,and looking at the types of data that was being targeted, that it was consistent with a nation-state adversary and associated with Russian intelligence. 
Source: https://www.crowdstrike.com/blog/bears-midst-intrusion-democratic-national-committee/

IMT, what information does your 'intel services' present for you to make your opinion?  May I review it, please? This is presented as factual evidence linked to a source. It is not an attempt to convince you of anything, per se.

 
 
 
CB
6.2.18  CB   replied to  CB @6.2.17    2 weeks ago

Well IMT, since you're back for a moment or so. . . . @6.2.17.

 
 
 
Tessylo
6.2.19  Tessylo  replied to  IMT @6.2.15    2 weeks ago

Nyet IMT Nyet.

 
 
 
Sparty On
7  Sparty On    3 weeks ago

I think Nate Silver’s cheese has finally slipped completely off his crack.

 
 
 
MAGA
7.1  MAGA  replied to  Sparty On @7    3 weeks ago

Not to mention it’s an article based on his opinion and it’s not a hard news article. 

 
 
 
Freewill
8  Freewill    one week ago
Will Trump attempt a coup when he loses?

No.

He will likely bitch and complain, and blame it on other people, but it will do him no more good than it did Hillary.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
8.1  Bob Nelson  replied to  Freewill @8    one week ago

Hillary was not President when she lost. 

Duh. 

 
 
 
Freewill
8.1.1  Freewill  replied to  Bob Nelson @8.1    one week ago
Hillary was not President when she lost.

Neither will Trump be on Jan 20 if he loses.... Duh.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
8.1.2  Bob Nelson  replied to  Freewill @8.1.1    one week ago

Seriously? 

Are you really arguing that there's no difference? 

Amazing..... 

 
 
 
Freewill
8.1.3  Freewill  replied to  Bob Nelson @8.1.2    4 days ago

Seriously?

Ever peruse the Constitution at all Bob, the US Code of Laws perhaps?  He can’t refuse to leave if he loses the election.  There will be no “coup”.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
8.1.4  Bob Nelson  replied to  Freewill @8.1.3    4 days ago
Seriously? Ever peruse the Constitution at all Bob, the US Code of Laws perhaps? He can’t refuse to leave if he loses the election. There will be no “coup”.

Seriously?

Ever peruse the media at all, Freewill? The Internet, perhaps? He pays no heed to any traditions, or even to any laws, that are contrary to what he wants. He would happily foment a coup.

The question is, "How many guns?" 

 
 
 
Dulay
8.1.5  Dulay  replied to  Freewill @8.1.3    3 days ago

Isn't the Constitution where we can find the Emoluments clause? 

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
8.1.6  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Dulay @8.1.5    3 days ago

This emoluments type thing?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/13/politics/supreme-court-donald-trump-emoluments/index.html

The Supreme Court won't   revive a lawsuit by Democratic members of Congress   who argued that President Donald Trump has been violating the Foreign Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, which bans foreign payments to a sitting US president.

The court, without comment, on Tuesday let stand a lower court opinion that dismissed the lawsuit.
 
 
 
Freewill
8.1.7  Freewill  replied to  Bob Nelson @8.1.4    3 days ago

The media and the internet eh?  Which media and what sources on the internet?  Many such sources have become bastions of speculation, spin and unnamed sources.  Fear mongering from both sides should one or the other win or lose is off the charts.  Best to quadruple check all such sources, weed out the outlandish, the clearly partisan speculation and fear tactics, and remain grounded in reality at this point.  No sense in playing the Cheeto’s sort of game eh?

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
8.1.8  Bob Nelson  replied to  Freewill @8.1.7    3 days ago

I'm not responsible for anyone else's ignorance. Only my own. If you don't know something, that's your problem, not mine. 

 
 
 
Dulay
8.1.9  Dulay  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @8.1.6    3 days ago

Do you know or care WHY they dismissed the lawsuit Jim? Perhaps you can clarify your point by telling me your vast knowledge about that specific case. 

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
8.1.10  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Dulay @8.1.9    3 days ago
Reading is fun.......damental
"But a federal appeals court said in February that the members of Congress didn't have the legal right to bring the case because they do not constitute a majority in the House or Senate. The Trump administration asked the justices to stay out.
"Petitioners do not constitute a majority of either chamber of Congress and thus are, as the court of appeals emphasized, powerless to approve or deny the President's acceptance of foreign emoluments," government lawyers told the Supreme Court."
 
 
 
Freewill
8.1.11  Freewill  replied to  Bob Nelson @8.1.8    3 days ago
I'm not responsible for anyone else's ignorance. Only my own.

Indeed.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
8.1.12  Bob Nelson  replied to  Freewill @8.1.11    3 days ago
Indeed.

Brilliant example of cherrypicking. 

 
 
 
Freewill
8.1.13  Freewill  replied to  Bob Nelson @8.1.12    3 days ago
Brilliant example of cherrypicking.

Oh...my bad...

If you don't know something, that's your problem, not mine. 

Indeed.

 
 
 
Dulay
8.1.14  Dulay  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @8.1.10    3 days ago

But do you know what that MEANS Jim. Here, let me help. It MEANS that the case was not dismissed on the merits, it was dismissed for lack of standing. In short, the case can be taken up by someone with standing. 

At this point though, they already have Trump on falsifying his financial disclosures which is a Federal criminal offense. So I'd rather that prosecution be pursued since it carries jail time. 

Cheers. 

 
 
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