The Education of Donald Trump
Donald Trump was elected to the Presidency as a complete outsider. The biggest outsider in modern history - a non politician. His ideas on foreign policy were not well formulated. His ideas on foreign policy were similar to that of the average American. He wanted America strong & safe and confined to promoting and protecting it's own self interest. He inherited a foreign policy mess in which the departing president warned him of his ultimate challenge via the constant threats of a nuclearized North Korea. There were also the acts of genocide taking place in Syria, a well funded, emboldened Iranian regime destabilizing the middle east, Isis running wild and a decades old military intervention in Afghanistan.
At first it seemed that Trump preferred to delegate much of his foreign policy to the military. His appointment of James Mattis was one of his best IMO. Mattis was a man of principle, who gave advice regardless of how it was received. The old rules of engagement were modified, the military strengthened. All was fine as long as the military could defeat Isis, protect Syrian rebels, eventually get us out of Afghanistan and most important for the middle east - contain Iran! On the North Korean front Trump tried personal diplomacy, which produced some minor gains like a suspension of missile tests, the return of hostages and the return of military remains from the Korean War. There was the one unmentioned major gain - the North Korean saber rattling and threats to US allies ended. For how long is the question?
After a bit of turmoil, certain realities have begun to register.
1) First and foremost - Iran has lost it's sweat heart deal and is really suffering from the hard as nails sanctions the President imposed on them. They have had a lot of time to arm themselves (twice the time as the Third Reich). They have sophisticated weapons and they know the American political game. Trump cannot afford a war going into an election. Thus Iran has sabotaged and then hi-jacked oil tankers. Nothing was done. Then Iran launched missiles that could not be detected by either Saudi nor American radar, which destroyed vital Saudi oil facilities. How should we respond? The President now knows he is involved in a dangerous game with Iran - until election day!
2) Our Saudi Allies - Here is a regime that bought billions of dollars worth of sophisticated weaponry from the US, yet they seem totally incompetent when it comes to military matters. Thus the Saudi's have been so reluctant to identify Iran as the source of the missile attack, knowing that once they do, the world would expect a military response. The President now knows that Saudi Arabia can't be counted on as an ally.
3) The Afghanistan quagmire - Much of the angst the President has gone through with his generals involves the timing of a pull out from Afghanistan. The military has continually made a case for "just a little more time and the country might be stabilized. The President now knows that when US forces are removed the Afghan government will fall to the Taliban.
4) Our European Allies - When it comes to the middle east, there has always been one unspoken secret - the nations of Europe really enjoy doing a lucrative business with Iran. The Europeans enjoy American protection and their socialist regimes have little room in their budgets for national defense. They've become quite spoiled by the arrangement. The President now knows the full character of our traditional allies.
5) China - Here is a nation that has feasted off the United States since they were allowed into the WTO. They have enjoyed a gargantuan trade imbalance with the US, stolen American technology and created markets of dependency throughout the world. Trump fought it all and we are currently engaged in a trade war with China. The President now knows that China is holding firm and desperately hoping that a democrat defeats him in the next election.
6) USMCA - Trump successfully negotiated a new trade agreement between America's neighbors, Canada & Mexico. The agreement is a major improvement over NAFTA. The President now knows that Nancy Pelosi will table it in the House until after the next election.
7) American Sovereignty - The President, don't ask me how, after years of obstruction by liberal judges, a democratic House opposed to his every action and a hostile press corps, has managed to work out an agreement with Mexico, put up some tent Courts and finally begun work on some wall. All of which has alleviated the raging border crisis of the past spring. The President now knows that whatever progress that can be made will have to be done by independent measures.
This President was as green as they come when he began the job. He has overcome an unprecedented level of obstruction and now he is finally realizing how difficult the problems of foreign policy truly are. His tenacity has gotten him this far. Forged under fire, he now knows what it means to be a cautious politician. May he use all he's learned to survive & prevail over the next 13 months.
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To be filed under "The making of a politician"
He should probably read everything he can get his hands on about Uylsses S Grant to try to avoid replacing
President Grant as the most naive POTUS and owner of the most corrupt administration (so far) fraught with constant scandals and nepotism.
A very good and well thought out article. No need to change horses mid stream as the old saying went. We should let him have four more years put America first.
My emojis are getting a big workout of recent. Here goes:
President Donald Trump is a first-class jerk as his record of lying for pleasure in office demonstrates. If he lies as much in his personal life as he does professionally, then everybody should look out for "incoming." It sickens me to read people who call themselves putting President Obama "under fire" for the made-into-lies they stuck onto him and Michelle, while letting this 'lying machine' crank out lies at-will (12,000 plus and counting). Some conservatives are so phony.
No value? Really? Can you get Trump to tell even you the truth? How much longer do we have to endure this man?! God help us! How is a 'pleasure liar' a moral leader ?
[deleted]
Well, we're have to see about that. I will tell the truth as I see it, and do in a manner suitable to what everyone who moderates around here tells me is not an echo chamber. You do what you think you have authority to do, I will check with whom I have to back stop it. You can't stop Donald from smearing himself: Giuliani and Trump are attempting to mount a whisper campaign against Joe Biden. If true, that's "crooked." Some conservatives ought to say so! I'm praying for *relief* from this pleasure lying, president.
you do that
"How much longer do we have to endure this man?!"
Five years four months give or take a day or two!
I'm hoping for 5 more years
Me too!
As for point number 5, the Chinese viewpoint differs from what is stated.
"...feasted off the United States?" How so, by buying billions of dollars in US treasury bills to help keep the US financially afloat?
Is it China's fault that American consumers buy Chinese products more than the Chinese buy American products? Is it China's fault that American manufacturers prefer to use Chinese-supplied parts in their products?
American manufacturers wanted so badly to access the Chinese consumer market that they SHARED their technology with China as required. Nobody forced them to do it, and the technology was not STOLEN, it was gladly shared by greedy American manufacturers.
What's wrong with that? Is it illegal? Doesn't the US wish it could do it better?
Who started the trade war? Who is suffering more because of it?
I think that most people know by now that China does not think in short terms, like a year, or four, but plans and prepares for generational terms. China is desperate? Okay, America, you go ahead and believe that.
Interesting.
Buzz, I know one thing - whether anyone agrees or not, you've made a case. Before I answer any of that I'm going to try to look at it from the Chinese perspective. I'll try and get back to you on it.
Well the thing is that what had been going on the last 25 years or so was no longer sustainable from our point of view. Trump was right to take this issue on and try to rebalance what had been going on. I’m hopeful a deal can be worked out. China may gamble on Trump losing and getting a better deal from democrats and establishment Republicans. But if Trump does win, their cost for a deal will go up, as Trump has said. With Chinese wages going up and with the time and cost of shipping taken into account and the availability of cheap natural gas in right to work American states it’s becoming cheaper for some manufacturing of items intended to be sold here done here. I’m no fan of tariffs in general but short term as a tool to reach a policy objective, I have no problem. The Chinese are lowering the value of their currency to maintain their price here for market share so Trump is net right that the Chinese are paying the tariffs indirectly as long as they follow that monetary policy. We can then redirect the actual collected tariffs to our farmers and hardest hit by Chinese tariffs manufacturers to make them whole and eliminate the pressure China is attempting to direct at his base and red states. I trust Trump to get America the best deal that he can get us and maintain eventual quota and tariff free trade on all products from both sides
Believe it or not, the lowering of the value of the Yuan is a benefit to me as it has beneficially increased the exchange rate on my American and Canadian income.
I've responded to your request with my opinion on the Fox News article. Now perhaps you will address the 6 responses I had to number 5 in the seeded article.
Since you have a sense of what is going on over there, could you give me your thoughts on this story:
1. To lose a war is to surrender - China has not surrendered, contrary to the normally right wing Trump backing Fox News that of course fully supports Trump's trade war.
2. The Chinese economy was slowing down, and the Trade War had nothing to do with that.
3. Notwithstanding the slowing of the Chinese economy, it still has a strong economy.
4. The spike in oil prices affects everyone, even the USA. I've taken note that the prices at the pumps in the USA have risen accordingly, notwithstanding the country's decreased reliance on foreign oil.
5. Pork is still cheaper than beef and lamb here, and of coarse Chinese people actually also eat fish, chicken and ducks. In fact, Chinese people eat considerably more vegetables than meats, which is healthier. As well, rice and noodles are staples.
6. Let's see where next month's trade negotiations take us. Somehow I don't think Trump's bullying tactics that worked on Trudeau and Mexico would succeed with China.
I agree that a trade war is painful for everyone, not only those that it targets, but also the citizens of the country that started the war, and it also is bound to affect other countries as well. What remains to be seen is whether it will be a Pyrrhic Victory for the USA if it "wins" the war.
Because The US imports $419 Billion from China while the US only exports $120 Billion to China.
The reason:
"China can produce many consumer goods at lower costs than other countries can. Americans, of course, want these goods for the lowest prices. How does China keep prices so low? Most economists agree that China's competitive pricing is a result of two factors:
2. An exchange rate that is partially fixed to the dollar.
How so, by buying billions of dollars in US treasury bills to help keep the US financially afloat?
"China pegs its currency to the dollar using a modified fixed exchange rate . When the dollar loses value, China buys dollars through U.S. Treasurys to support it.
American manufacturers wanted so badly to access the Chinese consumer market that they SHARED their technology with China as required. Nobody forced them to do it, and the technology was not STOLEN, it was gladly shared by greedy American manufacturers.
Um-hum, it's all about profit for manufacturers in a free economy.
As for technology theft:
"Chinese rules require foreign firms who want to enter certain industries -- such as energy, telecommunications and autos -- to form joint ventures with local partners, which often results in the transfer of technology to the Chinese companies.
What's wrong with that? Is it illegal? Doesn't the US wish it could do it better?
If they can get away with it, why not? They are not going to get away with it here anymore.
Who started the trade war? Who is suffering more because of it?
Trump started it - rightfully so IMO. China is obviously suffering more from it. It was China that had all the benefits and now it's the US that gets the tariff revenue. I know that prices for goods will increase within the US, but we can survive that. The article I sent you shows how much the price of Pork has increased dramatically in China.
I think that most people know by now that China does not think in short terms, like a year, or four, but plans and prepares for generational terms.
True. China had a long range strategy - one that Bill Clinton never anticipated. The idea that China would fall in love with Capitalism once introduced to the WTO was kind of silly right from the get go.
BTW Buzz, please note that none of my links are from Fox News.
Okay so maybe it was a feast, but who were gladly serving the vittles?
That "lower standard of living" is getting higher and higher all the time. The middle class is booming and the government is consistently improving the lifestyles of the poorer citizens.
By the way, I never studied economics or political economy, so I'm at a loss there.
The point I was making is that if the companies did not want to share their technology, then they could go somewhere else. Nobody was FORCING them to set up in China, but if they did, then they had to follow the rules. That's not theft. When in Rome....
China is looking to me like a pretty Capitalistic country these days.
I admire patriotism. So I tip my hat to you. Yes China now is a great modern power and I do believe that the living standards of it's people is improving. Nobody forced American companies to do anything. They operate on the basis of profit. Trump has given them reason to come home. The trade imbalance will end - as long as Trump wins in 2020.
LOL. I'm a patriotic CANADIAN. I just happen to have more knowledge of everyday life in China because I've been living in China for the past 13 years.
Vic, the ''tariff revenue'' is import duties paid by the IMPORTER OF RECORD. That means that the US buyer of the goods is paying the tariff costs. None of that money comes from China.
The cost of pork in China is based on supply and demand, not tariffs. China is experiencing ''African swine fever'' that is causing pork suppliers in China to destroy tens of thousands of pigs.
China is the largest producer and importer of pork. The prices are rising worldwide because of the current shortage.
That means that the US buyer of the goods is paying the tariff costs. None of that money comes from China.
And I never said it was - BUT THE MONEY DOES GO TO THE GOVERNMENT OF THE US! You just wanted to remind us that Americans pay higher prices.
Thanks for the breakdown.
And just in case anyone missed it - China is obviously suffering more from it!
I'm glad to hear it.
Actually I wanted to be sure that you understood that the US is paying the import tariffs costs. And yes, the money is from American companies going to the US government. In essence, it's a tax.
Happy to clear that up for you, Vic.
Clear what up?
It's not raising taxes despite what Kavika is trying to imply. US consumers who purchase certain Chinese goods will pay more for them just as Chinese consumers who buy certain American goods will pay more for them. It is a tariff. BTW I don't recall any democrat candidate saying they would end Trump's tariff should they win. Why is that?
I didn't imply anything Vic, it's a straight forward comment.
I said in essence it is a tax. Which it is.
A straight forward comment that means what? You don't care for the President or you don't think Americans can tough it out a little to get a fair trade deal.
I think I understand. No blueprint is necessary.
Obviously you don't understand and you're making one hell of an assumption.
Have a nice day in your world, Vic.
You should check on O'Rourke - it's in writing at Fox News.
Klobuchar also said it was a day one priority in a brief interview last week.
That's what I have you for. I say I can't recall something and your fingers get moving. Good job Googling. Unfortunately for you it dosen't contradict a statement that begins with "I don't recall".
Ta-Ta
Always glad to help with the memory of a fellow sexagenarian.
Don't forget to lock this when we're done.
You concern yourself with the latest bulletin for moderators.
Your'e down to posting little symbols. I think your'e overpaid.
That's odd. It is the US that has been stuck with a lot of pork. Those prices should be dropping.
Oh ok. Iv'e kind of gotten away from both.
I suggest that Donald Trump has been educating the rest of us that the post-WWII diplomatic dogma of 'peach through partnership' has ill served the United States. Nation building simply doesn't work; the United States is put on the hook while everyone else is allowed to pursue their own interests.
Trump has been attempting to disengage the United States from the rest of the world. And somehow the world continues to function. The rest of the world doesn't seem to have an appetite for global war. What is the United States really preventing?
Time to remove the badge?
Time to stop being a hired gun. It's time to settle down and run our own ranch.
It's funny that the only thing that Obama and Trump had in common was a belief in that. Both had problems with the generals and our allies (traditional & otherwise). Neither could get out. Nerm, it must be a real heavy lift!