Does Trump Know How To Count?
Category: Op/EdBy: john-russell • one month ago • 77 comments
In his urge to rush toward exciting his religious right base, President* Trump will very soon announce his nomination to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. The two women most mentioned as the possible nominee are both committed to overturning Roe v Wade at some point and making abortion illegal in the United States again. Trump thinks that because this makes his base happy it will help him in the election.
There is a lot of reason though to think that this will backfire on Trump and hurt his chances of re-election.
The most obvious reason is that 65 or 70% of Americans support Roe v Wade and , in general, abortion rights for American women. By nominating someone that the Democrats can credibly refer to as a justice that would end legal abortion , and doing so with a month left in the campaigns, Trump may in fact be hanging an anchor around the necks of not only himself but also numerous Republican senate candidates around the country.
Once Trump announces the nominee in a few days there will be a month for the Democrats to go on tv and for the Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump to create ads to play in the suburban areas of swing states telling voters that Trump and the republicans want to end legal abortion. The simple fact is 70 is a lot more than 30. If the 70% who want to preserve Roe v Wade are persuaded to make that an issue to vote on on Nov 3, Trump is likely screwed, as is the hope of a Republican senate next year.
Trump has always been much more interested in exciting his MAGA crowd than he has been in being the president of everyone. He continues to do so with his absurd rallies filled with nonsense clowning and lies. He likes those people because they wear the red hats and they laugh at his jokes that appeal to a ten year old's mentality.
Ever since 2017, in general elections, Trump favored candidates have underperformed , either losing to the Democrat or often receiving a lesser percentage of votes in the district or state than in 2016. There was of course the blue wave of 2018. Because he is basically an idiot Trump has always assumed that keeping his 40% (tops) fan base happy would make him a winner in 2020. There is virtually no actual evidence of this but he is dancing with himself who brung him.
Imagine the airwaves flooded in the next month with ads telling the nation's women that they will lose the right to legal abortion. This could gin up anti-Trump turnout that will overwhelm whatever benefit Trump thinks he is gaining by naming a far right anti Roe justice. Because 70 is more than 30.