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Coronavirus hype biggest political hoax in history - OPINION

  

Category:  Op/Ed

Via:  1stwarrior  •  4 years ago  •  120 comments

Coronavirus hype biggest political hoax in history - OPINION

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



ANALYSIS/OPINION:

The new coronavirus is real.

The response to the coronavirus is hyped. And in time, this hype will be revealed as politically hoaxed.

In fact, COVID-19 will go down as one of the political world’s biggest, most shamefully overblown, overhyped, overly and irrationally inflated and outright deceptively flawed responses to a health matter in American history, one that was carried largely on the lips of medical professionals who have no business running a national economy or government.

The facts are this: COVID-19 is a real disease that sickens some, proves fatal to others, mostly the elderly — and does nothing to the vast majority.

That’s it.

That, in a nutshell, is it.

Or, in the words of   Dan Erickson   and Artin Massih, doctors and co-owners of Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield, California: Let’s get the country reopened — and now.

“Do we need to still shelter in place? Our answer is emphatically no. Do we need businesses to be shut down? Emphatically no. … [T]he data is showing it’s time to lift,”   Erickson   said , in a recent interview.

He’s right. They’re right.

The data to keep America closed and Americans closed in simply doesn’t exist.

If truth be told, it’s questionable it ever did.

The scientists leading the coronavirus shutdown charge predicted in March that in America, between 100,000 and 250,000 would die. They based those estimates on computer modeling.

But at the same time they were basing those estimates on computer modeling, they were acknowledging that computer   modeling   is inaccurate and errs on the side of hype.

“I’ve never seen a model of the diseases I’ve dealt with where the worst-case actually came out,”   said   Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of President Donald Trump’s White House coronavirus task force, during a CNN interview in March. “They always overshoot.”

Catch that? Fauci’s message: Computer models are flawed and inaccurate and always overestimate the problem.

But from these faulty overinflated computer figures came all the constitutionally questionable actions by government anyway — from ordering businesses closed to quarantining-slash-house arresting American citizens to doing some quick and pitiful and economically painful income redistribution schemes via stimulus funds’ legislation.

Since, about 56,000 have died in America due to coronavirus — or have they? Again, the facts are flimsy.

Government ordered hospitals weeks ago to stop performing elective surgeries to make way for the projected numbers of coronavirus patients. So they did. And in so doing, they cut off their revenue streams. So Congress passed legislation giving hospitals billions of dollars to treat coronavirus patients. Conflict of interest? Yikes. Yes.

The coronavirus counts, already flawed from computer modeling, were then given another flaw treatment.

“[Pennsylvania] removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy,” The Inquirer   reported .

Add to that the ever-changing nature of a virus that spreads by air and contact, and honestly, suddenly, even expert Fauci’s best guess is about as good as Joe Neighbor’s best guess. So that leaves common sense, combined with knowledge of past viruses, to guide.

But the quote-unquote medical experts refused to go there, refused to acknowledge common sense, refused to compare with past viruses in any way that didn’t hype the coronavirus counts.

This virus was different, Americans were told. This virus was far more contagious than anything ever before seen or studied, Americans were told. And any time the case counts dropped off and the numbers proved wrong, well, this was due to the social distancing and quarantining and face-mask wearing that Americans had been doing, by government’s order — Americans were told.

It just didn’t make sense.

It just doesn’t add up.

It just didn’t, and doesn’t, justify the utter shredding of civil rights.

And now some in the medical community, thank goodness, are   starting   to point out the glaring omissions of logic and fact that have plagued this overhyped, overreaching coronavirus crackdown that has stretched on far, far too long.

Among some of   Erickson ’s remarks: “This is immunology — microbiology 101. This is the basis of what we’ve known for years: When you   take   human beings and you say, ‘Go into your house, clean all your counters, Lysol them down’ … what does it do to our immune system? … Sheltering in place decreases your immune system.”

And this: “Any time you have something new in the [medical] community, it sparks fear — and I would have done what Dr. Fauci did … initially. … But you know, looking at theories and models — which is what these folks use — is very different than the way the actual virus presents itself throughout communities.”

And this: “Do you think you’re protected from COVID when you wear gloves that transfer disease everywhere? … We wear masks in an acute setting to protect us. [But] we’re not wearing masks. Why is that? Because we understand microbiology. We understand immunology. And we want strong immune systems. I don’t want to hide in my home, develop a weak immune system and then come out and get disease.”

And this: “When I’m writing up my death report I’m being pressured to add COVID. Why is that? Why are we being pressured to add COVID? To maybe increase the numbers, and make it look a little bit worse than it is. We’re being pressured in-house to add COVID to the diagnostic list when we think it has nothing to do with the actual cause of death. The actual cause of death was not COVID, but it’s being reported as one of the diseases processes. … COVID didn’t kill them, 25 years of tobacco use killed.”

Does it get any clearer than that?

Seriously, America. The only reason America is still in shutdown mode is political.

Either politicians are too afraid to make any move that might come back to bite them politically or politicians are using this coronavirus to political advantage — to, say, pass gun control laws, like Virginia’s governor, Ralph Northam. Or to, say, float campaign hopes on the current ravaged economy, like former Vice President Joe Biden and oh, all the Democrats facing races.

But for the rest of America — the rest of hardworking, freedom-loving America — it’s time to reel in the radically unconstitutional.

“If you’re going to dance on someone’s constitutional rights, you better have a good reason — you better have a really good reason, not just a theory,”   Erickson   said. “The data is showing us it’s time to lift … so if we don’t lift, what is the reason?”

That is the key question.

As time goes by, the answer will only become more and more evident. The coronavirus may be real — but the hype is hoaxed. Now let’s just hope this is a one-time hoax that doesn’t roll around every time flu season approaches.


Article is LOCKED by author/seeder
[]
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
1  seeder  1stwarrior    4 years ago

The data to keep America closed and Americans closed in simply doesn’t exist.

If truth be told, it’s questionable it ever did.

The scientists leading the coronavirus shutdown charge predicted in March that in America, between 100,000 and 250,000 would die. They based those estimates on computer modeling.

But at the same time they were basing those estimates on computer modeling, they were acknowledging that computer    modeling    is inaccurate and errs on the side of hype.

“I’ve never seen a model of the diseases I’ve dealt with where the worst-case actually came out,”    said    Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of President Donald Trump’s White House coronavirus task force, during a CNN interview in March. “They always overshoot.”

Catch that? Fauci’s message: Computer models are flawed and inaccurate and always overestimate the problem.

 
 
 
Gordy327
Professor Guide
1.1  Gordy327  replied to  1stwarrior @1    4 years ago

Better to overestimate than underestimate. 

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
1.1.1  Greg Jones  replied to  Gordy327 @1.1    4 years ago

But is it better to fear monger and attempt to induce panic, rather than use science, logic, and common sense in considering the problem.

 
 
 
Gordy327
Professor Guide
1.1.2  Gordy327  replied to  Greg Jones @1.1.1    4 years ago
But is it better to fear monger and attempt to induce panic, rather than use science, logic, and common sense in considering the problem.

If people are panicked, that's because they're the ones being irrational rather than using logic or common sense. Scientists actually deal with diseases. But they also need to know the potential severity and inform people as to the best ways to avoid being infected.

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
1.2  Dulay  replied to  1stwarrior @1    4 years ago
Catch that? Fauci’s message: Computer models are flawed and inaccurate and always overestimate the problem.
Sadly, like all too many here, you hang your hat on a truncated quote by the author of a partisan rag. You and the author are misrepresenting what Fauci said. 
From the link to the Fauci interview:
"Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."
"I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that, " he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."
So you see, Fauci didn't say that computer models are flawed and inaccurate. Not even close. 
 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
1.2.1  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  Dulay @1.2    4 years ago

Whenever the models come in, -

I've never seen a model of the diseases - computer models.

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
1.2.2  Dulay  replied to  1stwarrior @1.2.1    4 years ago

What will your next truncation of Fauci's comment look like? 

Fauci and Dirx RELY on computer models. They've presented images of them during their briefings and they've actually cited the IMHE website. Just stop. 

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
1.2.3  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  Dulay @1.2.2    4 years ago

Interpretation - perception - ya oughta try'm.

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
1.2.4  Dulay  replied to  1stwarrior @1.2.3    4 years ago

Facts - cogency - ya oughta try'm. 

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
1.2.5  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  Dulay @1.2.4    4 years ago

So, as usual, you have no discussion - just jab and run.

Sad.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
3  Paula Bartholomew    4 years ago

Banana oil.

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
3.1  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @3    4 years ago

Not good for going down hill either.

 
 
 
Jasper2529
Professor Quiet
5  Jasper2529    4 years ago

Many scientists and physicians have stated that the oft-quoted computer models don't factor in mitigation.

Another interesting detail is that many reports about testing and deaths are counted like this: 

  • 1 person tested positive 3 times and eventually died; therefore, 3 people "died" 
 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
Professor Expert
6  Perrie Halpern R.A.    4 years ago

This article is dangerous and you by spreading it you are endangering the public welfare. 

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
6.2  JohnRussell  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @6    4 years ago

These two appeared on Fox News, multiple times I think.

They serve a purpose for the corona virus deniers. 

 
 
 
Jasper2529
Professor Quiet
6.2.1  Jasper2529  replied to  JohnRussell @6.2    4 years ago
These two appeared on Fox News, multiple times I think.

So have Bernie Sanders, De Blasio, Cuomo, Murphy, Sharpton, Klobuchar, etc. Your point?

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
6.2.2  XXJefferson51  replied to  JohnRussell @6.2    4 years ago

There are no Wuhan virus deniers here.  

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
6.2.3  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  XXJefferson51 @6.2.2    4 years ago
There are no Wuhan virus deniers here.  

Hilarious that you're trying to re-brand it to deflect any collective responsibility and blame one racial group or culture. Does that mean I can just re-brand the deniers and claim they are infected with dumb-shits disease? Because it's pretty clear they have been showing severe symptoms, especially in this seed.

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
6.3  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @6    4 years ago

Think you'll notice that it is an OPINION piece - the other side of the story????

Nothing in the opinion opts for DO IT OR ELSE - don't eat chlorine tablets - don't slip on a banana peel - don't walk in front of a bus - don't stick your finger in an electrical socket.

No, the article is not dangerous.  If that's the case, then at least 50% of the articles on the FP are dangerous as most of them are BS or lies.

 
 
 
Dulay
Professor Guide
6.3.1  Dulay  replied to  1stwarrior @6.3    4 years ago
Think you'll notice that it is an OPINION piece

Perhaps then you'd be willing to move it from News & Politics to Oo/Ed where it belongs. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
6.3.2  Sparty On  replied to  1stwarrior @6.3    4 years ago

Spot on there 1st but when an article doesn't push a popular narrative for a given venue, it will be attacked mercilessly regardless.

Groupthink at its worst ......

 
 
 
TTGA
Professor Silent
6.3.3  TTGA  replied to  Sparty On @6.3.2    4 years ago
Spot on there 1st but when an article doesn't push a popular narrative for a given venue, it will be attacked mercilessly regardless. Groupthink at its worst ......

Yep, and then the trolls and the deflectors start hammering on the irrelevant technical details.

 
 
 
pat wilson
Professor Participates
6.4  pat wilson  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @6    4 years ago

This article is based on opinions of two doctors in Bakersfield that run an urgent care clinic. Of course they think the covid response is a hoax. They want their clinic to be busy again, that's it. If their one-star yelp reviews are to be believed you would never step foot in  their clinic.

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
6.4.1  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  pat wilson @6.4    4 years ago

You hit it on the head Pat.  

We must all remember that our opinion is NOT the only opinion and there are some opinions that will flat out kill ya.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
6.4.2  Split Personality  replied to  pat wilson @6.4    4 years ago

They actually own 7 or 8 of these clinics, it's unclear if their headquarters is listed twice or actually sees patients.

I imagine they want more floor traffic for sure.

Some of them are in strip malls while a few are rather large buildings that must cost quite a bit to rent.

Just saying, these two guys are much more businessmen now, than practicing doctors.

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
6.4.3  XXJefferson51  replied to  Split Personality @6.4.2    4 years ago

Disagree with the opinion, attack the opinion by making allusion to what you consider an ulterior motive in order to denigrate said opinion?  

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
6.4.4  Split Personality  replied to  XXJefferson51 @6.4.3    4 years ago

ok,, lets say you own 10 gas stations and don't know anyone who has died from this virus.

Would you not be antsy for the public to get going? Start traveling? Start buying gas again?  Buy snacks at the gas station

or get their cars fixed?  That's what businesses do.

Someone has to worry about inventory, rent, electric, taxes, payroll etc.

Any businessman is going to have the same reaction that Erickson and Massih have expressed.

They just happen to be doctors claiming special opinions.

Their opinions are not special because of their education or chosen profession.

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
6.4.5  XXJefferson51  replied to  Split Personality @6.4.4    4 years ago

Gas stations and auto repair shops are open

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
6.4.6  Split Personality  replied to  XXJefferson51 @6.4.5    4 years ago

Once again, an analogy is a complete waste of your time.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
6.5  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @6    4 years ago

Hense my comment #3.

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
6.6  XXJefferson51  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @6    4 years ago

It likely got much larger circulation in the Washington Times and other conservative sites that use their opinion articles than by 1st seeding it here.  

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
7  Kavika     4 years ago

If you truly believe this ''opinion'' 1st, then you should just move on over to the Navajo rez or any Pueblo's close to you and explain to them that this virus is all overblown BS. 

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
7.1  Split Personality  replied to  Kavika @7    4 years ago

Everyone that thinks it a hoax should visit NYC and volunteer to move the victim's remains with out any PPE.

Sound reasonable?

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
7.1.1  devangelical  replied to  Split Personality @7.1    4 years ago

sounds reasonable and logical to me. right wing radio has been hyping these two quacks for weeks. their indirect facilitation of possible disease expansion with their herd immunity theory amounts to risking the extermination of america's most vulnerable. all for the sake of the ridding the economy of their idea of human liabilities and to get the incompetent fool that allowed covid-19 to get this far by ignoring the warnings of health experts for more than two months at the onset.

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
7.1.2  devangelical  replied to  devangelical @7.1.1    4 years ago

... incompetent fool re-elected...

oops, edit error...

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
7.2  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  Kavika @7    4 years ago

Where did I say I believed this opinion?  I put it out because there are other thought paths regarding this issue and I truly expect ADULTS to be able to discuss OTHER concepts - such as is being put forth in this opinion piece.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
7.2.1  Split Personality  replied to  1stwarrior @7.2    4 years ago

Speaking from experience of many, many years, a seeder rarely published something he or she wants to be

trashed and attacked.

The opposite is almost always true in a political atmosphere.

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
7.2.2  Kavika   replied to  1stwarrior @7.2    4 years ago

Well perhaps an ADULT such as yourself would have explained that in their intro or first comment. You can review your first comment and try to explain to me that you are not hyping this opinion. 

What other concept did the article discuss other than the numbers are a hoax and we need to open up the country?

I'm more than willing to discuss other concepts but you have to put one forward to have a discussion like an adult. 

 
 
 
Snuffy
Professor Participates
7.2.3  Snuffy  replied to  1stwarrior @7.2    4 years ago

And that's the problem both with this board as well as life in general any more.  We are no longer allowed to discuss other concepts or ideas,  we must always be in lockstep or we get called out. It gets very frustrating at times.

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
7.2.4  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  Kavika @7.2.2    4 years ago

You know better than that.

I don't need to explain myself.  If you'll note, the title states specifically that this is an opinion piece.  I don't have to get on a soapbox and shout out that this is not MY opinion, but is the opinion of the author. 

Most adults would recognize that "silent statement", especially most adults who know me and have had discussions with me on various topics.

The article is very clear - there is a lot of unreliable information being thrown around by all - computer modeling is inaccurate - death count is inaccurate - lab results aren't satisfactory - number of strains current are incorrect.  It is up to the person(s) reading the article to make up their mind as to what is/is not believable - and that's what adults are usually good at doing - making up their own mind with the information available.

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
7.2.5  Kavika   replied to  1stwarrior @7.2.4    4 years ago

I mentioned that ''opinion'' in my first comment to you. 

Most adults would recognize that "silent statement", especially most adults who know me and have had discussions with me on various topics.

Then I must not be an adult since a ''silent statement'' is one that is not heard or seen and as I stated in my previous comment you did nothing to dissuade one from thinking that you were in agreement with the opinion piece. 

All of those items you listed as unreliable are two doctors' opinions. If you like you should research the number of deaths from the virus in nursing homes and veterans' homes that were not being counted. 

You can make it crystal clear by letting me or the readers of the article if this is your belief or not.. It's up to you.

 

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
7.2.6  Kavika   replied to  Kavika @7.2.5    4 years ago

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
7.2.7  XXJefferson51  replied to  Snuffy @7.2.3    4 years ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
Raven Wing
Professor Participates
7.2.8  Raven Wing   replied to  Kavika @7.2.6    4 years ago

Great video Kavika.

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
7.2.9  XXJefferson51  replied to  XXJefferson51 @7.2.7    4 years ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
7.2.10  XXJefferson51  replied to  XXJefferson51 @7.2.9    4 years ago

I took it there.  

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
7.2.11  XXJefferson51  replied to  Snuffy @7.2.3    4 years ago

Tell me all about it.  You are so right on about all that you said here.  🇺🇸🗽🦅👌👍👏

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
7.2.12  XXJefferson51  replied to  Snuffy @7.2.3    4 years ago

Tyrants Gone Wild – Ben Garrison Cartoon

Posted by:  Ben Garrison in  Political Cartoons May 4, 20201 Comment

virus_tyrants.jpg

The coronavirus gave many of the so-called leaders in this country an opportunity to reveal their true selves. Many may have suspected before, but now all doubt has been removed: They’re vicious tyrants.

Across the country, many mayors, governors, and congressional leaders have demonstrated just what control freaks they really are. Gavin Newsom, head tyrant of California, has closed all beaches. No, you can’t enjoy the waves, salt air, and sunlight—all virus destroyers—because he said so. He’s going to tell all Californians what they can and cannot do. Shut up and obey!

Michigan’s governor Gretchen Whitmer is a real piece of work. She denounced those who protested the lockdown as ‘racist.’ She made sure every Walmart store taped off their gardening sections because she considers them ’ non-essential.’ She gets to decide what you can and cannot buy.

New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio is having a field day. He wants his city locked down until at least July. Probably after July 4th so Americans can’t get together and celebrate Independence Day. The mayor crossed the line by threatening Jews who were holding prayer meetings and funerals. He instructed the police to ‘round them up!’

Many sheriffs and policemen have been behaving disgracefully. I saw a video in which the local sheriff and his deputy threatened a mother because her child went next door to play with a neighbor child. Oh no, can’t have that kind of freedom! The sheriff could have ignored it enforcing such an unconstitutional directive, but no…they love arresting, fining, and yelling at the sheeple. They are in tyrant heaven.

The worst tyrant of them all is the sociopath Bill Gates. His 100 billion dollar fortune has enabled him to greatly influence the medical field in a global manner, even though Bill is not trained in medicine. He doesn’t have a medical degree or even a college degree. He does have experience in dirty dealing. He was a ruthless businessman who shafted other programmers as he cobbled together a buggy and virus-riddled windows operating system. Now that squeaky-voiced geek…that nerd…that unelected ‘authority’ … that TYRANT…wants to control us all through a vile vaccine with built-in tracking technology. If you don’t take his shot, you won’t be able to travel or work. We must not let Kill Bill have his way.

A horrific and dystopian future awaits us all if we don’t start pushing back against the tyrants. We don’t need their permission to be human beings.

—Ben Garrison     

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
7.2.13  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  Split Personality @7.2.1    4 years ago

Well, if you knew my background, you'd see that I was "trained" another way.:-)

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
7.2.14  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  XXJefferson51 @7.2.12    4 years ago

Too bad that's from a well-known Repub media site - shows you just how futched up "somebody's" knowledge/experience and total lack thereof will, if followed, cause a lot of irreparable harm to our citizens.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
7.2.15  Split Personality  replied to  1stwarrior @7.2.13    4 years ago

Then I apologize for falling into the "social media mindset".

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
7.2.16  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  Split Personality @7.2.15    4 years ago

No worries :-)

Not everybody was raised the same way.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
8  JohnRussell    4 years ago

1st, you seeded an article lauding two doctors that have been widely debunked. It takes about 15 seconds to find expert opinion that thinks the two doctors are way off base.  This is only one of the many rebuttals of their conclusions. 

A response to the video circulating by Drs. Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi on COVID-19 prevalence and immunity.

The two doctors, who own a chain of urgent cares in central California together, held a press conference where they announced the results of the testing they'd conducted and their interpretation of the data. Their take included political and economic recommendations based on their personal convictions, which will not be discussed here.

They made two epidemiology/im munology claims:
1) 340 / 5213 (6.5%) diagnostic tests were positive at their urgent cares. They conclude, scaling up, that 6.5% of the entire Central Valley is therefore positive. For Bakersfield, CA: it would mean about 58,000 people had the virus, far more than the nearly 700 confirmed cases. We should calculate mortality and morbidity (hospitalization, ICU) rates accordingly, they argue.

2) Prolonged social distancing damages the immune system, and we are all becoming weaker for staying at home.

MORE PEOPLE HAVE HEART ATTACKS AND BROKEN LEGS IN ERs THAN IN A SHOPPING MALL

Their fatal, immediate, obvious, rookie mistake is that their 5213 people are in NO WAY REPRESENTATIVE of the population at large. Although we don't know how many (because the data was not that thorough)- we can assume a decent chunk of these people had symptoms of COVID, sought care, and were tested. Their urgent cares had the lion's share of COVID tests for the entire Central Valley (which is awesome). So ANYONE in Bakersfield who felt worried would go there. Presumably doctors referred patients there whom they felt needed testing.

Walk around an ER on a Friday night. If 4 out of 50 patients had broken legs, and another 10 had heart attacks, you can't assume 8% of the city fell off a ladder when drunk that night and a full quarter were clutching their chest in an armchair as we speak. In epidemiology terms, that's selection bias- bias introduced by a non-random sample.

So, essentially their calculations are entirely invalid. If they could somehow prove that the 5213 were an entirely random sample of people which was perfectly representative of the age, sex, pre-existing conditions, ethnic background and degree of symptomatology of the Central Valley, that would be different.

UNLESS YOU LIVE INSIDE AN AUTOCLAVE, YOUR HOME IS PLENTY PATHOGEN-RICH

The world is absolutely teeming with microbes. You're coated in them, your house is coated in them, they enter your body with every breath you take and everything you eat. Your immune system is getting a perfectly adequate workout. You're just restricting your exposure to a handful of things (respiratory pathogens) for a very short period of time.

The doctors have every unalienable right to express their personal views, but the evidence they offered to back those views up is invalid (and immunologically laughable). The Denominator is larger than the official case count (evidence for that discussed repeatedly on this page, and is now accepted dogma). Of course that will downwardly adjust the relevant rates. There's no need to hand-wave.
 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
8.1  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  JohnRussell @8    4 years ago

John - the most intelligent comment in that thread is - "The problem, of course, is that estimating, for example, prevalence of exposure to COVID-19 and case fatality rates is very difficult in the middle of a pandemic in which there is insufficient testing, case numbers are still climbing, and the antibody tests likely have high false positive rates, and if you don’t have any training you don’t even know what you don’t know. 

IMHO, the two Doc's used the typical polling mechanism - don't set any boundaries nor criteria, but select a population that "may" give you the basis for the results you want.

I am not advocating their rationale - I'm just posting an opposing view for discussion purposes.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
9  JBB    4 years ago

The dumbass article is opinion. A damn bad no good lying wrongheaded ill conceived stupid misleading and dangerous opinion. Butt, an opinion none the less...

 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
9.1  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  JBB @9    4 years ago

Glad to see that you have an open mind and the ability to intelligently discuss it.  Come back after a couple cups of coffee.

BTW - everyone has an opinion and, in this country, they are free to voice that opinion.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
9.2  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  JBB @9    4 years ago

You know what they say about opinions.

 
 
 
It Is ME
Masters Guide
10  It Is ME    4 years ago

Sorry….but I just see regular "Influenza" numbers, hyped to "Extorsion Levels" by the media !

 
 
 
It Is ME
Masters Guide
10.1  It Is ME  replied to  It Is ME @10    4 years ago

Researcher "Pre-Prints" have been flowing freely, and the "Media" picks out the ones they want to run with for a "sale/Money".

Pretty Sad.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
10.2  Split Personality  replied to  It Is ME @10    4 years ago

Weird, what happened to my comment?

Sorry….but I just see regular "Influenza" numbers

True to an extent, but that depends on where the final body count comes in.  So far we are less than 60 days in, record time to reach 70,000 and not a good omen for the next 9 or 10 months.

Previous pandemics in the US usually run 12 to 13 months then burn out on their own.  that is likely with Covid also and it will mutate and come back, most likely weaker, that has been the trend.

Their is no mention of the pandemics or what Eisenhower did in 1957-58.  the CDC estimates that 116,000 were killed.

I remember my parents were much more concerned about polio than any expected flu.

During the 68-69 pandemic everyone from Lydon Johnson down was focused on Vietnam. The

CDC estimated that 100,000 died.

Not even a mention of flu epidemics on their respective Wikipedia pages, it was business as usual.

In 2009 while trying to claw our way out of the worst economy ever, Obama turned over the pandemic to the CDC.

Thankfully we had tissue samples from 1918 which had been researched off and on for decades, we had much better hospital care and vaccines came to market within months.  DCD estimates less than 13,000 died in addition to the regular 40,000 seasonal flu deaths which are all now variants of H1N1.

 
 
 
Jeremy Retired in NC
Professor Expert
10.3  Jeremy Retired in NC  replied to  It Is ME @10    4 years ago
Sorry….but I just see regular "Influenza" numbers

It is kind of ironic that influenza numbers aren't being announced.  Leads me to believe that there is a possibility that part of the Covid cases could be nothing more than the flu.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
10.3.1  Split Personality  replied to  Jeremy Retired in NC @10.3    4 years ago
Conclusion. CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018– 2019 influenza season

CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019 , through April 4, 2020 , there have been:

24,000 – 62,000
flu deaths

Always exasperated by the wide ranges.

Leads me to believe that there is a possibility that part of the Covid cases could be nothing more than the flu.

They can identify the various strains though DNA or RNA testing, hence all of insistence on testing.

 
 
 
Jeremy Retired in NC
Professor Expert
10.3.2  Jeremy Retired in NC  replied to  Split Personality @10.3.1    4 years ago

And are they doing the testing?  IF they are, it's not being reported.  Until then it doesn't change my statement.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
10.3.3  Split Personality  replied to  Jeremy Retired in NC @10.3.2    4 years ago
And are they doing the testing?

Yes postpartum.

IF they are, it's not being reported.

Sure it is, on their website.  Like I said it has a wide range and gets into the chicken or egg conundrum.

Did the patient die from the flu? Did the flu cause cardiac arrest or did a life time of smoking?

No one can agree.

Until then it doesn't change my statement.

jrSmiley_26_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
sandy-2021492
Professor Expert
11  sandy-2021492    4 years ago

Coronavirus testing thus far has been a very biased sample. It has not been truly random sampling. Rather, it has been heavily biased towards people who had symptoms, people who were in contact with someone who developed COVID19, people at high risk, etc. In other words, the percentage of positive cases in the testing is probably much higher than the actual state or country-wide percentages, just as our estimate of dark blue marbles was unrealistically high. This means that our intrepid doctors overestimated the total number of cases, thus vastly underestimating the mortality rate. They calculated mortality by dividing known deaths by their estimated cases, which means the higher the number of estimated cases, the lower the death rate.

The other problem is that they are only using the people that have died thus far, but that number is going to keep going up, even if no one else ever becomes infected. In other words, some of the people who are infected with COVID right now are going to die. So, you can’t take the ongoing infection data and divide the number of deaths by the number of cases, because people are still dying. That number is going to keep going up. To illustrate, let’s say that we have 10,000 currently infected people, plus another 10,000 who have either died (100) or recovered (9900). It would be stupid to take those deaths (100) and divide by all those cases (20,000) and conclude that there is only a 0.5% death rate. We can’t do that because we still have 10,000 people who are infected, some of which will die. Do you see the point? Using these numbers midway (as they did) biases the results towards a lower death rate.

These very basic problems with their analyses completely nullify their results. The numbers they are basing their arguments on are invalid, which means that they have nothing to back up their claims.
 
 
 
1stwarrior
Professor Participates
11.1  seeder  1stwarrior  replied to  sandy-2021492 @11    4 years ago

Sandy - that's pretty much what a lot of folks, scientific and non-scientific, are saying.  We don't know enough about what's happening to be making pronouncements that it is/is not safe to go about normal living because "we have a cure coming".  That cure may not be here from anywhere of 6 months to 36 months.  The disease "may" start becoming less lethal - but, then again, it may become very lethal.

Everyone knows pretty much that the "numbers" being crunched aren't exact.  They are either overstated or underestimated - but we don't know.  The Federal, State and local GOVERNMENTS are making decisions based on not quite correct/accurate data.  The medical field are the experts and the politicians should just shut the hell up and let the medical folks do their work. 

All this crap of blaming Trump and this administration is BS.  NONE of them are medical experts and they are just answering with wing-it responses in an effort to attempt to calm folks down.  But, we have so many "politicians" who, because of their position of power, believe they know what's best for all.

Excellent info - thanks.

 
 
 
sandy-2021492
Professor Expert
11.1.1  sandy-2021492  replied to  1stwarrior @11.1    4 years ago
Everyone knows pretty much that the "numbers" being crunched aren't exact.

There's a difference between working with numbers that you know aren't exact, but are the best you can obtain, and making broad pronouncements based on numbers that you should know are skewed, but apparently either don't know or won't admit to knowing.  These guys should know that they're working with flawed data, but they forge on ahead, anyway, and made pronouncements that were, in their own words, emphatic.

That's stupid.  It shows either a real or willful ignorance of science.  In statistics, if your sample is lousy, all the data you extrapolate from that sample was lousy.  These guys either ignored or forgot that, and we're supposed to base policy on their bad science?  These medical guys demonstrably are not experts, but they have an MD behind their names, so people take what they say as gospel.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Expert
12  Buzz of the Orient    4 years ago

I think that those who stand by the opinion that it's all a hoax should just put their health and life where their mouth is - rip off the mask, go out and congregate, cough and sneeze on your spouse and kids, and everyone else you can possibly come close to. What the hell, it's all just a hoax, fake news, there's no reason to panic.  

 
 

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